Eastern empire falls, Western Empire lasts till 15th Century

[DominusNovus]

OK, here's the PODs I think will do the job. This is a tricky matter to pull off, so I've got 3 PODs

POD I
The Mother of Emperor Valentinian dies early. She was the real opponent to Honoria being sent off to Attila. Everyone else (Honoria, Attila, Theodosius, perhaps Valentinian, and probably Aetius) seems to have had no really objections (though the Romans obviously would have object to the "dowry" of half the Empire). Kill her off and Honoria and Attila can tie the knot and Attila turns his attentions to the east.

POD II
Theodosius doesn't fall off a horse and die. This keeps him alive long enough for Attila to attack him (for refusing to pay him tribute and for trying to have him killed), which, in turn, gives the Persians an excuse to march into the Empire.

POD III
This one's tricky, because there's not much to go on with 5th century British history. Anyway, at the time, the ruler of Britain, Vortigern was starting to have problems with the Saxons that he had invited over as Federates (why not? it worked soooo well for the Romans). His son, Vortimer, along with the native Britons, opposed the Saxons and became king after Vortigern was deposed. He was able to stop the Saxons for awhile, but was then poisoned, allowing Vortigern to come back and promptly be betrayed by the Saxons. Also, we've got Ambrosius Aurelianus, a Celtic Roman, who ruled the western parts of Britain and was often in conflict with Vortigern and the Saxons.

So, I figure we avoid Vortimer being poisoned. We get him to team up with Ambrosius. Then, we get them to come up with the great idea of hiring the Franks as Federates agains the Saxons. This helps to get some of the Franks out of Gaul, while populating Britain with people who will assimilate much easier than the Saxons.


I'll get a timeline of the early years up in a bit. Please tell me if you guys have any comments on this, especially the British part, I just got that from an hour of intensive web surfing (amazingly enough, there's a website devoted to Vortigern and the stuff going around at the time, vortigernstudies.com , I believe).

 

[DominusNovus]

Here we go.

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448 Aelia Galla Placidia, mother of Valentinian, Emperor of the Western Roman Empire, dies.

449 Justa Grata Honoria, Valentinian's sister, is caught having an affair with the overseer of her estates. Her lover is executed and she is exiled to Constantinople, where she writes to Attila the Hun, pleasing for him to rescue her. Theodosius, Emperor of the Eastern Roman Empire, sends her back to Italy and recommends that Valentinian hand her over to Attila. Valentinian only spares her life due to the intervention of Flavius Aetius, the Master of Soldiers. Aetius convinces Valentinian to send Honoria to Attila to help solidify an alliance with the Huns.

450 Aetius and Attila lead a combined attack on the Burgundians. The Burgundians are decimated. Aetius offers to settled the remaining Burgundians as Federates, but forces them to divide, to prevent future rebellion. The Burgundians are therefore spread across the Empire and will eventually be almost totally assimilated into the local populations.

451 Aetius offers the Vandals lands in Hispania, to counter the Visigoths that are starting to trickle into the region, as well as weakening the Vandals' base in Africa.

452 Aetius and Attila launch an attack on the Alans, who receive the same treatment as the Burgundians.

Vortimer, son of the High King Vortigern of Britain, allies with Aurelius Ambrosisius to combat the Saxon invaders hired by Vortigern. The allies suffer a minor defeat at Kent, and decide to ask for the help of the Franks to fight the Saxons. 10 keels (ships) of Frankish warriors are sent to Britain, under the command of Merovech.

453 Attila campaigns against the Ostrogoths, with some assistance from the Romans (Aetius is busy fighting the Visigoths). The Ostrogoths request shelter from Honorius, which they receive. The Ostrogoths begin to settle in Thrace.

454 Valentinian is deposed by Aetius, who is proclaimed Emperor, after Valentian attempts to assassinate Aetius.

Vortimer, Ambrosius, and Merovech defeat the Saxons outside of London. More Frankish warriors are sent over, along with family members. Vortimer chosen as High King.

455 Attila begins to campaign against the Eastern Empire, to receive the tribute Honorius refuses to pay. The Ostrogoths side with Attila, as do the Vandals.

457 Constantinople falls to the Huns, Ostrogoths, and Vandals. The Vandals sack the city, the Ostrogoths take most of Greece and Thrace, while Attila places a puppet emperor, Leo, on the throne.

Merovech dies and is succeeded by his son Childeric, who continues to compaign against the Saxons. A large portion of the Salian Franks have begun to settle in Britain.

The Sassanid Persians attacks the Eastern Empire, to restore a proper (read: Persian puppet) ruler to the throne.

458 Palestine and Syria fall to the Persians.

The Eastern Legions who do not follow Attila and Leo in Egypt, and declare themselves to be part of the Western Empire. Attila accepts this, as he had no real designs on Egypt, and has to contend with the Persians.

The Visigoths begin to come into conflict with the Vandals and Suevi.

459 The Huns are defeated by the Persians outside of Edessa.

Aetius defeats the Franks and fortifies the Rhine. Many of the Franks seek refuge in Britain, while some agree to disperse throughout the Empire. The rest retreat back beyond the Rhine.

460 The Huns are defeated again outside of Nicomedia. Leo signs a treaty recognizing Persian control of Palestine, Syria, and the eastern half of Anatolia.

461 Aetius begins to campaign against the Visigoths in Gaul.

463 Aetius secures most of Gaul, with Hunnic assisstance. Hispania is almost completely lost, as the Suevi, Vandals, and Visigoths fight each other over it, with the Romans covertly supplying the underdogs.

464 Aetius dies, Anastasius becomes Emperor.

The Saxons are totally evicted from Britain. However, they've effectively simply been replaced with the Franks. However, the Franks integrate into the local population much better than the Saxons, who generally went about killing the local population.

465 Vortimer dies, Ambrosius chosen as High King.

Anastasius begins to apply pressure on the African Vandals to settle in Hispania. Many Vandals are paid very well to migrate to the war-torn peninsula. Still, most stay in Africa.

467 Ambrosius dies. Childeric chosen as High King and begins a campaign against the Picts and Scots.

470 Attila dies. His son, Flavius (by Honoria), becomes the leader of the Huns. He is also the first Christian Hunnic ruler.

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I'm gonna have Anastasius consolidate the West (basicly Italy, Gaul, and some of Pannonia), while trying to weaken the barbarians, as Aetius did.

Flavius the Hun will also try to consolidate the Hunnic Empire. I'm figuring he'll be able to hold onto the Hungarian plain.

Meanwhile, the Ostrogoths will move into Constantinople, and depose the Hunnic puppet Emperor, place one of their own on the thrown, and then eventually depose him. Heh, just for giggles, we should try to have the Ottomans end the Western Empire, if at all possible (we've got a 1000 years to work with, after all).

 

[Hierophant]

Great Work!

The idea for the Ottomans is interesting. My idea: The Persians consolidate their empire somewhat. Mohhamed founds his religion and Islam explodes conquering Arabia, Syria, Palestine, Egypt, Southern Anatolia, and th rest of North Africa. The Persians are stronger and keep teh Arabs at bay(Islam doesnt expand into Asia. Meanwhile the Turkish tribes (Ottomans) are in central asia. In OTL about this time they began moving into the defeated Persia. In this TL the Persians are strong enough to hold them out. Central Asia's population is going critical. This leads to an explosion of movement by the Turkish tribes lead by a Ghenghis figure into the lands north of th caspian and then down into the caucaus mountains. All of OTL Russia south of Volgograd is completely Turkanized. The Turkish Empire then spreads by leaps and bounds across Russia absorbing the Slavs. Then possiblely they get into contact with the Romans fight a war the romans loose.

HMMM..... I like my idea of the Turks in Eastern europe but I dont know if you could warp it to your TL.

Again great TL.

 

[DominusNovus]

I'll see what I can do. I'm thinking of having the Persians hold the Arabs at bay long enough that the Christians and Muslims launch a joint Crusade against Persia. It's a good twist.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Very good TL (so far). Keep up the good work.

Flavius the Hun, a Christian. Will the rank-and-file Huns become Christians as well, or will Christianity stay the faith of the ruling dynasty (and presumably some nobles and others willing to advance their position)?

On the matter of the scenario of the Turks migrating into Russia, John described a scenario where the Ottoman Turks migrate north around the Caspian instead of through Persia into Asia Minor and thus convert to the Orthodox Church. Something tells me that the Eastern Orthodox Church won't exist in this TL, so I imagine the Turks (if they convert to anything) will convert to whatever religion is dominant in Eastern Europe. They could establish a good-sized empire in the East and attack the Western Empire for some reason or another.

 

[Hermanubis]

Very good TL (so far). Keep up the good work.

...Something tells me that the Eastern Orthodox Church won't exist in this TL, .

Ah, but the Western church made it, didnt it?

 

[DominusNovus]

Ah, but the Western church made it, didnt it?

Yes'm. I'm editing away the schism, mainly to spite whoever said it couldn't be done this late.

Anyway, here's the update for the moment.

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471 The Gepids rebel against the Huns.

472 The Gepids launch raids into Pannonia.

The Continental Franks and Thurigians rebel against the Huns.

The Romans begin to consolidate their hold on southern Greece.

475 The Ostrgoths rebel against the Huns and take Constantinople. Theodoric, king of the Ostrogoths, deposes Leo and replaces him with the young Justin.

The Visigoths, facing increasing resistance in Hispania, attack southern Gaul.

476 The Gepids are defeated by the Huns and flee to Pannonia. The bulk of the Roman army, tied down with the Visigoths, is unavailable to stop them.

The Picts and Scots agree to pay tribute to the British.

477 Anastasius begins to reform the Empire. He reorganizes the tax structure and administrative organization of the Empire.

479 The Romans score a major victory over the Visigoths.

Childeric dies and is succeeded by Clovis.

480 Flavius abandons much of the Hunnic Empire, accepting the independence of the subject tribes, and focuses on developing the Hungarian plain.

482 Theodoric deposes Justin and declares an end to the Eastern Roman Empire. The Patriarch of Constantinople flees to Rome. Emigration from the former Eastern Empire to the Western Empire increases.

##########

The Status Quo:
The Western Roman Empire controls Gaul, Italy, Egypt, most of Greece, most of Pannonia (refering to the diocese, which includes noricum, dalmatia, and others, and not just the province of Pannonia), and scraps of Hispania. The Empire is in the process of adapting to the current situation, while holding on for dear life. With any luck (read: definately), in a generation or two, it will be able to project itself outward again.

Britain controls OTL's England, with Scotland as a vassal. The Romans, Celts, and Franks are in the process of integrating, which will turn out much better (read: Romanized) than with the Saxons. Currently, Clovis rules over a fairly united realm, but, with the Franks at the top, it's going to be divided up, which will give the Romans and Celts opportunities to expand their influence. Many of the Franks are converting to Christianity.

The Visigoths are in eastern regions of Hispania, fighting the Vandals and Suevi, who have Roman support. The tide is slowing turning against the Visigoths (as evidenced by their attempt to retreat back into Gaul, which ultimately only lost them ground in Hispania).

The African Vandals (distinct from, though allied to, the Hispanian Vandals) are slowly losing control of their kingdom, as they face raids from nomads, and unrest from the Catholic populace. Still, they are filthy stinkin' rich, which counts for alot.

Hunnica controls the Hungarian plain and is currently relatively isolationist, as Flavius tries to build a state out of nomad horsemen.

Gothica controls Thrace and western Anatolia. Though they can't be said to have popular support, they're fairly stable.

The Sassanid Persians have gained eastern Anatolia and the Orient Coast (OTL's Levant Coast). Christians are beginning to face increased persecutions, as the Persians don't need to worry about pissing off a powerful Christian state (like OTL's Eastern Empire).

The (Continental) Franks are sitting around, just beyond the Rhine, bumping shoulders with the Saxons to their east, and the Thuringians to their southeast, who are bordering the Danube. The Angles, stuck on the mainland, are expanding around the regions east and north of the Saxons (Denmark and that area).



What'dya guys think?

 

[MerryPrankster]

"480 Flavius abandons much of the Hunnic Empire, accepting the independence of the subject tribes, and focuses on developing the Hungarian plain."

Just a caveat...

The later Huns, when they found out that they couldn't keep their nomad-horseman lifestyle on the MUCH smaller Hungarian plain, settled down and began raising corps of infantry in addition to cavalrymen. The Huns even built a capital city w/ Roman baths, from what I've heard (it was from a respectable source, not just the TNT movie).

I think Flavius's Hunnica will probably have more territory than just the Hungarian Plain, as state-building efforts under Attilla were a bit more advanced than most people give him credit for (granted, they weren't far enough along to keep the operation from collapsing after Attilla's death). Of course, the Hungarian Plain could be the "core territory" of the Huns (just as Italy/Gaul were the "core territory" of Rome), amd of course, you did say "much" of the Hunnic Empire. It might be a good idea for Flavius to employ some of the western Germanics as vassals/"federati" (this time under better control) in case the Western Empire starts moving again, as you indicate that it will.

 

[MerryPrankster]

"The Sassanid Persians have gained eastern Anatolia and the Orient Coast (OTL's Levant Coast). Christians are beginning to face increased persecutions, as the Persians don't need to worry about pissing off a powerful Christian state (like OTL's Eastern Empire)."

Hmmm...here's an idea. Perhaps if the Persians can hold off the Arab advance and continue their persecutions of Christians, the Western Empire and various other Christian states (like Britain, and perhaps some of the Germanic tribes) can become agitated and mount a Crusade against "the butchers of our Christian brothers and sisters." Perhaps y'all can invent some really nasty martyrdom story to stir up the people.

The notion of a joint Muslim-Christian assault on Persia has been mentioned before; due to both faiths' belief that they're "the one true faith," a "joint" Crusade on the lines of the Muslim-Christian attack on the Maya in the "Anglo-Saxon" story is rather unlikely (unless everyone agrees on total religious freedom in the conquered lands, like in the "A-S" story); however, I imagine tactical cooperation between Muslims striking from the southeast and Christian forces landing in the Holy Land and marching through Anatolia could work out.

 

[DominusNovus]

It might be a good idea for Flavius to employ some of the western Germanics as vassals/"federati" (this time under better control) in case the Western Empire starts moving again, as you indicate that it will.

Sounds like a good idea. We'll give the Huns the Gepids, Lombards (who I neglected to mention last time), and the Thuringians as vassals. That should bolster them pretty well.

 

[DominusNovus]

the Western Empire and various other Christian states (like Britain, and perhaps some of the Germanic tribes) can become agitated and mount a Crusade against "the butchers of our Christian brothers and sisters." Perhaps y'all can invent some really nasty martyrdom story to stir up the people.

I was thinking of something like that. My plan was to have this First Crusade just a few decades before Islam arrives on the scene. The Christians take back the Holy Land. The Persians then push them back, slowly and bloodily. Mildly exhausted, they lose the Holy Land again, to the Arabs (the Arabs might get Egypt too). Again, the Persians push them back. Which leads us to...

however, I imagine tactical cooperation between Muslims striking from the southeast and Christian forces landing in the Holy Land and marching through Anatolia could work out.

So, the Muslims and Christians decide to team up. This could definately lead to some serious infighting over who gets what in the region, which is fine by me.

Or. Oh, this could be good. Have the Christians hold onto the Holy Land or just Egypt (or they retake it, whatever). Every time the Muslims try to attack them (figuring they're weaker than the Persians), the Persians launch a rear attack into Arab territory. So, the Arabs work out a treaty with the Christians and they both go to work at hacking away at the Persians.

What about the Jacobite (syrian) and Coptic Churches? Maybe a Jacobite state emerges in the Holy Land, and a Coptic state in Egypt. That'll make things interesting.

On another note, I think that the Khazars will probably convert to Christianity, since they won't be as concerned with Islam at the time (assuming Persia falls by then, the Caucasus will be under Christian control anyway, making most of the Khazar neighbors Christian). Without Islam, there's not as much of a reason to consider Judaism.

 

[DominusNovus]

Quick question. Is Sultan a turkic or muslim term? If I'm gonna have the Turks take over the Western Empire, I think it'd be cool to have a Sultanate of Rome. But, they'll almost certainly be Catholics, and if Sultan is a mainly muslim term, that might not fit. What're some other titles? Khan, IMO, sounds too primitive or nomadic (the Khanate of Rome? bleh). I'm dead set against an actual King. Emperor would be good, but it'd be better to have a bigger break with the "old" empire.

 

[DominusNovus]

Next update.

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484
The Visigoths are completely evicted from Gaul. Fortifications are set up along the Pyrenees.

485
Anastasius continues his reforms. The empire is reorganized into many comitiae (roughly equivalent to counties). Each comitia has a representative in the Senate. The Senate is still largely powerless and mainly exists to advise the Emperor. The varying comitiae are allowed to govern themselves without much interference, so long as the taxes keep coming and don't cause any trouble.

488
The Picts and Scots rebel against the British.

The African Vandals face several revolts, supported by the Romans.

489
Anastasius dies, Marius becomes Emperor.

Clovis converts to Christianity.

492
The Gepids launch raids into northern Italy. The Huns assist the Romans in attacking the Gepids.

494
The Ripuarian (Continental) Franks and Saxons launch raids into Gaul.

Clovis refortifies Hadrian's wall, to contain the Scots and Picts.

497
The Gepids are largely defeated. The Romans have regained most of Pannonia, with the Huns receiving the interior regions. The Romans disperse the Gepids (though the Huns don't), and repopulate the area with Romanized citizens.

498
The Franks and Saxons are repulsed, though the Romans don't press on, due to exhaustion and consideration of the Huns.

501
Marius reforms the military, with a larger emphasis on heavy calvary.

504
The Romans retake Corsica and Sardinia from the Vandals.

506
The Romans retake the Balearic Islands from the Vandals.

509
Clovis dies. The leadership of Britain is unable to agree on who should rule. The Franks try to assert that one of Clovis' sons should lead, but they are divided on which one. The Britons disagree, saying that the High Kingship shouldn't at all be hereditary. The kingdom falls apart.

511
Under the pretext of Vandal persecution of Catholics, the Romans invade North Africa.

#####

As you can see, the Romans are starting to project their power again. They're moving cautiously at first. Pannonia was retaken only after being invaded, and the islands were ready to fall. Africa might be a bit tougher, but the Romans have been working on softening up the Vandals for a few decades. After that, they might go after the Hispanian Vandals, and ally with the Visigoths. The Visigoths will then get it the moment they do anything to piss off the Romans.

Also, in regards to the Comitiae. I figure that they'll have some feudalistic aspects to them (providing troops and whatnot), but be more Roman and city based (I'd expect many of the comitian capitals to be established at major urban centers or places that would lend themselves to becoming such). Also, the leadership could rule as they wish, though their position would be dependent on Rome (probably chosen by the Senate and approved by the Emperor, or some such arrangement). So, mercantile comitiae, such as Veneto (the region, as the city of Venice was never founded, due to Aquileia being spared, though a port suburb analogous to Ostia might have developed where Venice would have been) might basicly be republics, while more agrarian border comitiae might be autocracies.

 

[DominusNovus]

You know what? I think I'm gonna try for a Muslim China while I'm at it. The way I'm seeing the fall of Persia unfold, the Muslims will be prevented from expanding westward at all (with strong Egypt, Syria, Armenia, and Khazaria in the way, pluss all sorts of barbarians hanging around in Anatolia), forcing them eastward. I don't think we'll end up with an entirely Muslim China, but maybe a traditional state and a muslim state end up developing.

Anyone think we could have a remnant of the Zoroastrian Persian Empire survive? Maybe in the Persian heartland, along the Gulf (or in the Parthian heartland, along the Caspian). Something to think about.

 

[DominusNovus]

Short update before I live for dinner.

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512
The Romans take Leptis Magna and control all points east.

514
The Romans decimate the Vandal fleet outside of Syracuse.

Flavius dies. His nephew, Uldin becomes the Hunnic Emperor. Flavius' sons were passed over due to their refusal to convert to Christianity.

515
The Vandals score a victory outside of Zama.

516
Revolts in Vandal territory intensify, Romans take Zama.

518
The Romans take Hippo, cutting off Carthage from the rest of Vandal territory.

521
The Romans take Carthage, the Vandal War ends. The Romans begin to consolidate their conquest. The first proto-castles are built to secure the outskirts of Roman territory in the region. Design features will be incorporated into Roman defenses, but will become much more popular outside of the Empire.

524
Ostrogothic invasion of Hunnica.

526
Romans invade Gothic Thrace.

528
Uldin orders Adrianople razed to the ground.

530
Ostrogoth War ends. The Huns have taken much of Thrace, with the Romans taking some southern territory. Some of Thrace (Constantinople and its surrounds) are still Gothic. Many Goths emigrate from Thrace to Anatolia.

#####

 

[MerryPrankster]

Ah, a Gothic Anatolia? Very interesting. It seems the Vandals in Africa have been broken. How long will Roman rule in North Africa last?

 

[DominusNovus]

Ah, a Gothic Anatolia? Very interesting. It seems the Vandals in Africa have been broken. How long will Roman rule in North Africa last?

Probably for awhile. Egypt might fall, but North Africa is pretty secure. The various desert tribes might cause some trouble, but they could be assimilated.

BTW, I realize that this conquest took much longer than the Byzantines (they took it in less than a year). This might seem odd, since the Vandals are atually somewhat weaker in TTL, than in OTL. However, I figure that the Romans wouldn't be as strong as the Byzantines were, and they didn't have a leader like Belisarius at the time. The conquest was still relatively easy, they just proceeded caustiously.

 

[DuQuense]

Zoroastrian

Public radio just did a peice on the Zoroastists currently living in India. Evedentilly there still is a world wide comunity of them today, so having them survive in larger groups is very possible

 

[DominusNovus]

Here's another mini-update. BTW, I'm putting the 530 entry in again, because I forgot to kill of Theodoric, who was supposed to die in that year (actually, it was 526 in OTL).

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530
Ostrogoth War ends. The Huns have taken much of Thrace, with the Romans taking some southern territory. Some of Thrace (Constantinople and its surrounds) are still Gothic. Many Goths emigrate from Thrace to Anatolia.

Theodoric dies, Amalaric becomes King of the Goths.

534
Marius dies, Theodosius becomes Emperor.

536
The Romans ally with the Visigoths in Northwestern Hispania against the Vandals in Southern Hispania.

Carthago Nova falls to Roman forces.

537
The Romans take Gades.

538
The Romans take Scalabis (Santarem, Portugal) and Toletum. A Vandal army outside of Tarraco (in Visigothic territory) is crushed. Organized Vandal resistance is ended, though sporadic attacks continue.

541
The end of Vandal resistance in Hispania. The Romans control everything south of the Tagus and Sacro rivers. The Visigoths control the eastern half of Hispania to the north, with the Suebi in the western half.

#####

 

[DominusNovus]

Here's another update:

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543
The Lombards rebel against the Huns, and invade Hunnic Pannonia. The Franks, Saxons, and Thuringians refuse to assist the Huns.

Severe climatological disturbances occur. The Dark Ages begin.

546
The Huns are defeated outside of Carnuntum. Uldin accepts Lombard control of Hunnic Pannonia.

The Ostrogoths take the Crimean Peninsula.

547
The Bubonic plague is brought to Constantinople.

548
The Romans ally with the Basque people of northern Hispania, who were crushed between the Suevi and Visigoths.

Uldin dies. Attila II becomes Hunnic Emperor.

549
Attila II dies of the Bubonic plague, Bleda becomes Hunnic Emperor.

551
The Visigoths are conquered.

553
The Suevi are conquered. The reconquest of Hispania is complete.

560
Bleda hires the Avars to fight against the Slavic tribes invading Hunnic territory.

Theodosius dies, Justin becomes Emperor.

561
The Goths invade Persian Anatolia.

564
The Slavs ally with the Bulgars.

The Saxons, Franks, and Thuringians ally, under Lothair the German. They invade Roman Gaul.

566
The Romans ally with the Lombards and Jutes against the Germans.

The Lombards convert to Catholicism.

570
The German War ends. The Jutes and Lombards have taken some territory from the Saxons and Thuringians, respectively, and are allowed to settle some of their people in Roman territory.

575
The Slavs and Bulgars take Constantinople.

#####
We've basicly restored the Western Empire, sans Pannonia, but plus Greece and Egypt.

The foundations of a German state between the Rhine and Oder are forming.

The Avars are probably going to take over Hunnica, likely in a coup.

I'm thinking of having the Bulgars and Slavs (who now control the west coast of the Black sea and Hunnic and Gothic Thrace) go into Pannonia, bother the Romans, encircle Hunnica (which could lead to the aforementioned Avar coup) and push the Lombards north. However, maybe we'll send them into Anatolia.

Or we could wait until the Avars (or maybe even wait for the Magyars) start to kick some ass, then they'll push the Bulgars and/or Slavs into Anatolia.

However, I am going to develop a Bulgar state on the Volga, for kicks.

And what of Greece? Should I keep that Roman for the time being, or should we let Greece fall?