Dutch/Portuguese alliance

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
A Portuguese king most likely would have preferred to remain neutral and friendly with the England, France and the Dutch Rebels. Without the union, most likely there wouldn't be state-sanctioned piracy by the subjects of those nations against Portuguese ships. Also, attacks on Portuguese colonial fortresses, shipping and trading factories would probably not have occurred. However, the Spanish colonies and shipping would have most likely become even more vulnerable. One has to remember too that a large part of Portugal's fleet was destroyed as part of the Spanish Armada. Without that disaster, the Portuguese have some more fire power.

very interesting

If the English, Dutch and French establish colonies in the East, they most likely will be in areas not exploited by the Portuguese. I can envision the Dutch actually focussing more attention on North America, since they will gladly buy up Portuguese spices from the East. Portugal in return assumes the burden of building and maintaining forts in the East. However, the Dutch had controlled the fur trade from the Baltic, but by the late 16th century the price of beaver pelts rose drastically due to a dwindling supply caused by over-hunting. In OTL, the established New Netherlands as a source of beaver pelts, and if they focus more energy here, one could see them pushing northwards once war breaks out with the French.

Also interesting, perhaps Dutch interest in furs leads them to occupy Hudson's Bay north of New France. It would be interesting to see them go up the St. Lawrence, but I think the window for them to get in that territory before France is too early, given that Port Royal in Acadia was founded in 1604.

In addition, the Dutch may go after places like the Spanish Antilles. Perhaps Cuba, Puerto Rico or Hispaniola fall into Dutch hands. The English for their part were able to capture Jamaica, so perhaps a Dutch Puerto Rico, Trinidad or Venezuela is possible.

Here's where I would have to agree with Martin76 that the Dutch would most likely lose against Spain. Maybe Trinidad, but the other targets are too big, and they can likely concentrate on the islands they claimed historically for plantations.

Not that the Dutch wouldn't try, and maybe try harder, than OTL to cause trouble for Spain throughout the Americas- I just think they'd lose.

See this if your library has JSTOR.
http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.23...id=2129&uid=2&uid=70&uid=4&sid=21104596462071


This would inevitably lead to the Dutch building forts along the slave coast, but instead of taking Arguim and Elmina, they may just build a post in somewhere like modern Nigeria.

Right, rather than take Portuguese forts, they'd set their own up elsewhere along the coast.

By 1630, the Dutch attacks on Portuguese trade had caused revenues and ships arriving from the east in Lisbon to dwindle to next to nothing. With peace between the two countries, Portugal would have been able to obtain grain, manufactured goods and naval stores the United Provinces, England and France. In return selling spices, salt, ivory, sugar and gold. I can see Portugal becoming somewhat reliant on Dutch financial houses though (not that this is a bad thing). Finally, without so much pressure from the Dutch, the Portuguese most likely would have allocated more resources fighting local enemies in the East such as the Persians.

Also interesting.
The Dutch may have still attempted an Asian Empire, along with the English, but it is doubtful their rulers would have encouraged piracy against Portuguese shipping. The Dutch expansion in Asia occurred out of necessity when Philip II cutoff this source of wealth to the Netherlands in an attempt to weaken the United Provinces economically. In OTL, the English and Dutch rulers considered any territory ruled by the Spanish Habsburgs to be free game, so they responded by attacking Portuguese shipping. I imagine Portugal would have been seen as an ally against, and any attempt at expansion in Asia would have been less flagrant.

exactly
There were large parts of Asia where Portuguese influence was still tenuous, minimal or non-existent in 1580. If the Dutch still expand in Africa and Asia, they might still build trading factories in places such at the Cape, Java and Sumatra where Portuguese influence was not as strong.

(right, leaving Portuguese Amboyna, Malacca, Timor and Sri Lanka alone)

However, without a casus belli I just can't imagine them constantly attacking and laying siege to Lisbon and Goa as they did by the 1630s. Also, any expansion in Asia may be directed more towards the Spanish Philippines, Spanish Moluccas, Formosa, etc.

Maybe Dutch Taiwan becomes going concern, and the northernmost outpost of the Dutch East Indies. I don't foresee Dutch success against Spanish held Luzon however.



You may also see some interesting new places be colonised by United Provinces and England. In OTL, the English Puritans attempted to establish colonies in St. Augustin in Madagascar in 1645. They may try the Cape (as the Portuguese ignored this region), as the Dutch had not colonised it yet. On, the other hand, Madagascar may become English as a way station to the East. Indochina, Siam and Burma may all become places where the Dutch and English would bypass the Portuguese too.

In OTL for awhile northern Vietnam was a Dutch client while southern Vietnam was a Portuguese client.

The Portuguese for there part would have still been unhappy at the loss of the monopoly, but realizing their own weakness, been probably powerless to stop the expansion of these allied or friendly nations. I do see a situation where the Portuguese may still be in control of places like the Malabar Coast, Ceylon, Malacca etc, but the profits flowing largely to Amsterdam and later Bristol, because with peace between the countries and a maintained Anglo-Portuguese alliance, Portugal would have been increasingly dependent on manufactured goods from these countries.

Down the road, this is going to re-shape the bargains that end up delimiting British power in Malaya, and Dutch power in much of Indonesia, because the Dutch won't have claims in Malacca to trade.

In addition to different development in Portugal, the histories of Brazil and Angola will be different without Dutch attacks. This could make Portuguese efforts in those areas perhaps more lackadaisical. I wonder if Dutch Guiana was a byproduct of anti-Portuguese, or had its own motives. Maybe there ends up being no Surinam. The Dutch Antilles should not be effected however, since they were right up against New Granada and never in a Portuguese sphere by any stretch of the imagination.
 
Very interesting. But I think a Portugal as allied Dutch rebels would have meant the war with Spain... the invasion and likely conquest. Brazil? Maybe It would have been lost.In return, the Dutch had achieved the independence, about 1608, sooner than It actually was.
 
Very interesting. But I think a Portugal as allied Dutch rebels would have meant the war with Spain... the invasion and likely conquest. Brazil? Maybe It would have been lost.In return, the Dutch had achieved the independence, about 1608, sooner than It actually was.

I don't think that Portugal would be idiot enough to go straight to the jaws of the Castilian lion...

Even if Spain come in force against Portugal, a new Aljubarrota is possible. An involvement of France is a possibility and an english intervention even bigger.
 
I don't think that Portugal would be idiot enough to go straight to the jaws of the Castilian lion...

Even if Spain come in force against Portugal, a new Aljubarrota is possible. An involvement of France is a possibility and an english intervention even bigger.

I don´t think any Aljubarrota in XVI Century, yes a French involvement and not an English intervention...English army had tested the Spanish Infantry in Flanders... and unlikely they would have sent an Expeditionary Force to Portugal to hold out the Duke of Alva or Don Juan of Austria or don Lluis de Requesens or any other veteran of the Flanders wars.
 
I doubt Portugal would have wanted war with Spain, as it had a much more powerful land army. Whatever the missteps of Portugal's Avis monarchs, they had maintained a policy of neutrality in European affairs for over a century. This had allowed the Portuguese empire to remain unmolested by other European powers, also it kept Lisbon safe. It also kept piracy at bay, something that would come to destroy much of Portugal's shipping between 1580 and 1640. If one looks at the post-1640 period, Portugal's monarchs largely attempted to stay clear of European wars, when they did come to Portuguese soil, they were for the most part started by Spain and France.

The Iberian Union dragged Portugal into the Habsburg Wars with England, France and the United Provinces. Thirty-two Portuguese ships, were sent as part of the ill-fated Spanish Armada in 1588. This led to Lisbon being attacked by the English in 1589, with the granaries of the city destroyed. The Azores were also attacked and Porto Santo in Madeira was plundered.

One of the negative effects of the union was on finances, as King Philip II found ways of bypassing the Tomar agreement which had agreed to keep the two empires separate. He issued juros (bonds) secured on customs revenue from the Portuguese Indies. This would lead the Portuguese treasury to suffer from the devaluation, inflation, and frequent bankruptcies that plagued Castile. In addition, the constant attacks by English, French and Dutch ships on the Portuguese coast and Atlantic Islands raised the need for fortifications and coastal protection. To pay for this, a special tax of 3% to be levied on all imports and exports.

However, without the union, the Portuguese would freely trade with the Dutch, one has to remember that the Netherlands was Portugal's most important trading partner prior to 1580. The Spanish actions in Antwerp caused a brain drain from that city to Amsterdam, so most likely the Portuguese would shift their trading to that city. The Portuguese would continue selling them salt from Setúbal so they could preserve herring and meats, along with sugar from Madeira and Brazil, and spices, silks and porcelains from the East. However, without the need to look for salt in South America or the Caribbean, the Dutch may not establish themselves in Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao, or Saint Martin or Guiana, however.

In addition, the Portuguese would continue buying grain, naval stores (masts) from the Baltic, cloths and manufactured goods from the Netherlands and Germany through Amsterdam. I imagine to maintain goodwill with France, Spain, and the Holy Roman Empire, Portugal would continue to send its infantas to marry into those royal families with their substantial dowries.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
without the union, the Portuguese would freely trade with the Dutch, one has to remember that the Netherlands was Portugal's most important trading partner prior to 1580. The Spanish actions in Antwerp caused a brain drain from that city to Amsterdam, so most likely the Portuguese would shift their trading to that city. The Portuguese would continue selling them salt from Setúbal so they could preserve herring and meats, along with sugar from Madeira and Brazil, and spices, silks and porcelains from the East. However, without the need to look for salt in South America or the Caribbean, the Dutch may not establish themselves in Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao, or Saint Martin or Guiana, however.

Wow, so in addition to not plundering Portuguese ships and territories directly, they don't have the incentive to colonize the Dutch Antilles and Guiana (so salt, and not the sugar or tobacco trades was the Dutch motive, eh?) I imagine if the Dutch are not in the Caribbean, the English or French will grab their share of Guiana. Who would end up with the Netherlands Antilles? The Spanish Main (New Granada) is closest, but the English or French might want to grab some additional available Caribbean islands. Or the Danes, or Swedes or Courlanders. Or Tuscans, Sardinians or Sicilians for that matter.

If they really stay uninterested in substituting for or eliminating Portuguese middlemen, seeing them as a more reliable and trustworthy partners than even England or France or Spain, then the Dutch may not grab a bit of Africa or Asia at all. Might the Dutch sit out establishment of colonies entirely? Seems kind of hard to believe, but stranger things have happened.
 
I don´t think any Aljubarrota in XVI Century, yes a French involvement and not an English intervention...English army had tested the Spanish Infantry in Flanders... and unlikely they would have sent an Expeditionary Force to Portugal to hold out the Duke of Alva or Don Juan of Austria or don Lluis de Requesens or any other veteran of the Flanders wars.

You don't think and the spanish didn't think about it too in 1385... but seriously, Portugal never wanted to go against Spain. The only war that seems possible to me is a spanish invasion. If Spain is going to attack Portugal without a good casus beli France will not stay sitting like a duck waiting to see what happens next. And the help of England is simply assured, they helped Portugal in the crisis before the Iberian Union and they tried again in 1589.
 
Wow, so in addition to not plundering Portuguese ships and territories directly, they don't have the incentive to colonize the Dutch Antilles and Guiana (so salt, and not the sugar or tobacco trades was the Dutch motive, eh?) I imagine if the Dutch are not in the Caribbean, the English or French will grab their share of Guiana. Who would end up with the Netherlands Antilles? The Spanish Main (New Granada) is closest, but the English or French might want to grab some additional available Caribbean islands. Or the Danes, or Swedes or Courlanders. Or Tuscans, Sardinians or Sicilians for that matter.

If they really stay uninterested in substituting for or eliminating Portuguese middlemen, seeing them as a more reliable and trustworthy partners than even England or France or Spain, then the Dutch may not grab a bit of Africa or Asia at all. Might the Dutch sit out establishment of colonies entirely? Seems kind of hard to believe, but stranger things have happened.

Their initial interest was the saltpans along coastal Venezuela. Salt was a valuable commodity and was needed to preserve herring along with meat. Salt could be obtained from France (Britanny), but was unsuitable for the herring. The Netherlands traditionally acquired this salt from Setúbal due to its low price and high quality. The search for salt really only began once the Portuguese salt was cutoff to them by the embargo of 1598. The first voyages to the New World soon commenced as necessity is the mother of invention, and by 1600 they began acquiring salt in large quantities from coastal Venezuela. However, once the embargo ended between 1609-1621 the salt trade with Portugal resumed and no salt came from the Americas.

To not bring empty ships with them, the Dutch began importing goods to barter (knives, utensils etc) with the natives for tobacco, hides and dyewoods from Guiana. However, they may have not stumbled upon this with a steady supply of salt. With the resumption of hostilities in 1621, the Dutch began acquiring salt once again and decided to establish permanent settlements in the region during the 1630s. However, in 1630, the Spanish governor ordered the saltpans flooded, leading the Dutch to take Saint Martin in 1631.

The Dutch attacks on Brazil too were largely the effect of the Dutch being cutoff from Brazilian sugar. The Portuguese had even allowed Dutch ships to carry sugar to and from Brazil prior to the embargo, as the demand was too large to meet. Once they took Recife in Brazil, few Dutch settlers went to the area though.

As for expansion in Asia, it appears that in the 1580s the demand for goods from Asia was so great that the Portuguese were unable to meet the demand. So this could certainly lead to the the Dutch establishing their own trading posts or factories. On the other hand, the Portuguese may allow Dutch ships to trade directly with its colonies as they are unable to meet the demand.

What did occur due to the embargo though was the founding of the East India Company in 1602. From its founding until the 1609 truce, the VOC was largely an instrument of war, rather than of commerce. "In fact, the subsidies it received from the federal government of the Netherlands were not nearly enough to cover its military expenses and, after the first twenty years of operation, the debt accumulated by the VOC nearly equalled the capital outlay of the company" (Emmer, First Global War). Around one-half of the company's profits between 1602 and 1609 came from piracy (1 million guilders per year).

Between 1597 and 1609 the Dutch captured 30 Portuguese ships in Asia, representing around one-fourth of Portugal's Europe-Asia traffic. However, during this first period, the tonnage of goods arriving from Asia in Lisbon remained constant, so it can be summarized that the Dutch were only able to prevent further Portuguese growth during this period. One also has to remember that Dutch piracy forced Portuguese ships to sail at dangerous times, denying them access to Saint Helena and Terceira, and closing Goa and sometimes Lisbon with blockades, raising the costs of shipping.

Portuguese shipping was much more vulnerable to piracy than Spanish shipping simply because the Portuguese were sailing with goods, that were often perishable year round (sugar, slaves, spices, silks, etc). The Spanish on the other hand collected their bullion from the Americas and sailed them in large well armed convoys across the Atlantic and Pacific with less frequency. Making them much more difficult targets for privateers.
 
You don't think and the spanish didn't think about it too in 1385... but seriously, Portugal never wanted to go against Spain. The only war that seems possible to me is a spanish invasion. If Spain is going to attack Portugal without a good casus beli France will not stay sitting like a duck waiting to see what happens next. And the help of England is simply assured, they helped Portugal in the crisis before the Iberian Union and they tried again in 1589.

Aljubarrota was a Spanish Defeat like Alcantara was a portuguese defeat... but in XVI or XVII Centuries... if Spain attack Portugal... the country would have been conquested like It was by Duke of Alva in 1580.. and France and England wouldn't have prevented like they didn´t prevented in 1580.. French were defeated as the Englishmen and Dutchmen: Battle of Ponta Delgada

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Ponta_Delgada

So, I think if Portugal would have been allied Dutchmen rebels.. The Catholick King would has invaded Portugal.
 
Aljubarrota was a Spanish Defeat like Alcantara was a portuguese defeat... but in XVI or XVII Centuries... if Spain attack Portugal... the country would have been conquested like It was by Duke of Alva in 1580.. and France and England wouldn't have prevented like they didn´t prevented in 1580.. French were defeated as the Englishmen and Dutchmen: Battle of Ponta Delgada

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Ponta_Delgada

So, I think if Portugal would have been allied Dutchmen rebels.. The Catholick King would has invaded Portugal.

The first thing to say is that I am not even considering a scenario where Spain was attacked before by Portugal.

Now about the capacities of Portugal.

In 1578 Portugal lost the battle of the three kings, so when Philip launched his invasion in 1580 Portugal was still recovering from the disaster where his nobility and better forces were wiped out from earth. In this TL the battle didn't happen.

The war of Portuguese Succession is not exactly an spanish invasion, but a civil war. Philip brought his spanish troops to the war, but Portugal was divided against itself with portuguese troops fighting for Philip and against him. When Philip won he doesn't conquered Portugal he just "proved" that he had inherited it, so the entire kingdom acknowledged his rulership. But if Philip can't really claim Portugal he will be seen just as an usurper, the navy, the colonies and the islands will not automatically go to spain, they will resist much more. What Philip will gain is not the portuguese empire with its army and navy, but a brand new rebel province, after a much more costly war that could weaken really hard the spanish position in Europe.
 
Sure... but do bear in mind that trade and even collude is not the same thing as outright allying...

Of course, if we think about only trade relations, It wouldn't be any reason for the invasion. But in this TL seems that Portugal would support the Dutch rebels and that would be unacceptable in all respects.
 
The first thing to say is that I am not even considering a scenario where Spain was attacked before by Portugal.

Well, in this scenario Portugal nor attack nor support the Dutch rebels..It is the only way to avoid the Spanish invasion, I think.

In 1578 Portugal lost the battle of the three kings, so when Philip launched his invasion in 1580 Portugal was still recovering from the disaster where his nobility and better forces were wiped out from earth. In this TL the battle didn't happen.

Well, also the spaniards fought in The Battle of Ksar El Kebir and also they lost forces in that battle.
The war of Portuguese Succession is not exactly an spanish invasion, but a civil war. Philip brought his spanish troops to the war, but Portugal was divided against itself with portuguese troops fighting for Philip and against him.

True. in the XV-XVIIII centuries, each war was a civil war but the bulk of army attacked in 1580 was Spanish. Battle of Alcantara, for example:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Alcântara_(1580)

And the command: Duke of Alva, Sancho davila etc etc.
But if Philip can't really claim Portugal he will be seen just as an usurper, the navy, the colonies and the islands will not automatically go to spain, they will resist much more.

True. And of course it would open a new front And of course it would open a new front and weakened Spain's position in Germany or Flanders but
Portugal would had been conquered and ended the alliance with Low Countries. What I am saying is that we can not talk of alliance with Dutch Rebels without assessing the attitude of Spain.
 
Of course, if we think about only trade relations, It wouldn't be any reason for the invasion. But in this TL seems that Portugal would support the Dutch rebels and that would be unacceptable in all respects.

I doubt Portugal would ally itself with the Dutch, they would prefer neutrality. The Dutch too would probably prefer Portuguese neutrality as it keeps trade open. One has to remember that by 1550, Portuguese (and Spanish) shipping capacity was severely overstretched. Portugal simply did not have enough sailors or ships to trade everywhere it wanted to. By 1570, it was rare that Portuguese ships travelled north of France, leaving the Baltic trade with Portugal in the hands of Dutch middlemen.

To maintain friendly relations with the Spanish, a few Portuguese infantas with large dowries would have been married off to the Habsburgs. That had been the policy pursued before 1580. In addition, the Portuguese would have given naval support in Habsburg Wars against the Ottomans. This was in Portugal's interest as after the 1550s, the traditional trade routes over land from India to Constantinople began to make a rebound.
 
Of course, if we think about only trade relations, It wouldn't be any reason for the invasion. But in this TL seems that Portugal would support the Dutch rebels and that would be unacceptable in all respects.

Ah yes, the title of this thread is Dutch/Portuguese alliance but the general direction of the thread was pointing to a trading partnership rather than a military alliance. I thought we were on the same page, sorry.
 
Viriato and Miguel,

You are right, a purely economic alliance would have been useful for the Netherlands and Portugal
 
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