raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
A Portuguese king most likely would have preferred to remain neutral and friendly with the England, France and the Dutch Rebels. Without the union, most likely there wouldn't be state-sanctioned piracy by the subjects of those nations against Portuguese ships. Also, attacks on Portuguese colonial fortresses, shipping and trading factories would probably not have occurred. However, the Spanish colonies and shipping would have most likely become even more vulnerable. One has to remember too that a large part of Portugal's fleet was destroyed as part of the Spanish Armada. Without that disaster, the Portuguese have some more fire power.
very interesting
If the English, Dutch and French establish colonies in the East, they most likely will be in areas not exploited by the Portuguese. I can envision the Dutch actually focussing more attention on North America, since they will gladly buy up Portuguese spices from the East. Portugal in return assumes the burden of building and maintaining forts in the East. However, the Dutch had controlled the fur trade from the Baltic, but by the late 16th century the price of beaver pelts rose drastically due to a dwindling supply caused by over-hunting. In OTL, the established New Netherlands as a source of beaver pelts, and if they focus more energy here, one could see them pushing northwards once war breaks out with the French.
Also interesting, perhaps Dutch interest in furs leads them to occupy Hudson's Bay north of New France. It would be interesting to see them go up the St. Lawrence, but I think the window for them to get in that territory before France is too early, given that Port Royal in Acadia was founded in 1604.
In addition, the Dutch may go after places like the Spanish Antilles. Perhaps Cuba, Puerto Rico or Hispaniola fall into Dutch hands. The English for their part were able to capture Jamaica, so perhaps a Dutch Puerto Rico, Trinidad or Venezuela is possible.
Here's where I would have to agree with Martin76 that the Dutch would most likely lose against Spain. Maybe Trinidad, but the other targets are too big, and they can likely concentrate on the islands they claimed historically for plantations.
Not that the Dutch wouldn't try, and maybe try harder, than OTL to cause trouble for Spain throughout the Americas- I just think they'd lose.
See this if your library has JSTOR.
http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.23...id=2129&uid=2&uid=70&uid=4&sid=21104596462071
This would inevitably lead to the Dutch building forts along the slave coast, but instead of taking Arguim and Elmina, they may just build a post in somewhere like modern Nigeria.
Right, rather than take Portuguese forts, they'd set their own up elsewhere along the coast.
By 1630, the Dutch attacks on Portuguese trade had caused revenues and ships arriving from the east in Lisbon to dwindle to next to nothing. With peace between the two countries, Portugal would have been able to obtain grain, manufactured goods and naval stores the United Provinces, England and France. In return selling spices, salt, ivory, sugar and gold. I can see Portugal becoming somewhat reliant on Dutch financial houses though (not that this is a bad thing). Finally, without so much pressure from the Dutch, the Portuguese most likely would have allocated more resources fighting local enemies in the East such as the Persians.
Also interesting.
The Dutch may have still attempted an Asian Empire, along with the English, but it is doubtful their rulers would have encouraged piracy against Portuguese shipping. The Dutch expansion in Asia occurred out of necessity when Philip II cutoff this source of wealth to the Netherlands in an attempt to weaken the United Provinces economically. In OTL, the English and Dutch rulers considered any territory ruled by the Spanish Habsburgs to be free game, so they responded by attacking Portuguese shipping. I imagine Portugal would have been seen as an ally against, and any attempt at expansion in Asia would have been less flagrant.
exactly
There were large parts of Asia where Portuguese influence was still tenuous, minimal or non-existent in 1580. If the Dutch still expand in Africa and Asia, they might still build trading factories in places such at the Cape, Java and Sumatra where Portuguese influence was not as strong.
(right, leaving Portuguese Amboyna, Malacca, Timor and Sri Lanka alone)
However, without a casus belli I just can't imagine them constantly attacking and laying siege to Lisbon and Goa as they did by the 1630s. Also, any expansion in Asia may be directed more towards the Spanish Philippines, Spanish Moluccas, Formosa, etc.
Maybe Dutch Taiwan becomes going concern, and the northernmost outpost of the Dutch East Indies. I don't foresee Dutch success against Spanish held Luzon however.
You may also see some interesting new places be colonised by United Provinces and England. In OTL, the English Puritans attempted to establish colonies in St. Augustin in Madagascar in 1645. They may try the Cape (as the Portuguese ignored this region), as the Dutch had not colonised it yet. On, the other hand, Madagascar may become English as a way station to the East. Indochina, Siam and Burma may all become places where the Dutch and English would bypass the Portuguese too.
In OTL for awhile northern Vietnam was a Dutch client while southern Vietnam was a Portuguese client.
The Portuguese for there part would have still been unhappy at the loss of the monopoly, but realizing their own weakness, been probably powerless to stop the expansion of these allied or friendly nations. I do see a situation where the Portuguese may still be in control of places like the Malabar Coast, Ceylon, Malacca etc, but the profits flowing largely to Amsterdam and later Bristol, because with peace between the countries and a maintained Anglo-Portuguese alliance, Portugal would have been increasingly dependent on manufactured goods from these countries.
Down the road, this is going to re-shape the bargains that end up delimiting British power in Malaya, and Dutch power in much of Indonesia, because the Dutch won't have claims in Malacca to trade.
In addition to different development in Portugal, the histories of Brazil and Angola will be different without Dutch attacks. This could make Portuguese efforts in those areas perhaps more lackadaisical. I wonder if Dutch Guiana was a byproduct of anti-Portuguese, or had its own motives. Maybe there ends up being no Surinam. The Dutch Antilles should not be effected however, since they were right up against New Granada and never in a Portuguese sphere by any stretch of the imagination.