This is utterly insane - this reads like engineering the fall of the Empire and in some ways I'm expecting the Ottomans to join in and then Vijayanagar decides it wants the Romans out of SE Asia because reasons. I can appreciate the justifications that are being used, but this reads like the Spanish wrote the history book. Constantinople is hardly innocent of any crimes, but the idea that random publications are a provocation that justifies the Accord when there are no army movements, and the last diplomatic efforts that were being made by the Romans were "Maybe lets not fight each other because Henri II and the Triunes" is mad. It's like the previous 10 years only exists in terms of newspaper clippings.
The other thing is that I'm confused how the Romans went from having a diplomatic and fiscal apparatus that was able to leverage financiers from across Europe, handle the prickly nature of Vijayanagar, and flip Hungary in the German War is suddenly this incompetent. I appreciate that was discussed in an earlier update, but how did it go from that to "nothing happens" when apparently the government is filled with war-hawks that surely have an opinion and a strategy? Its somehow previously competent, suddenly aggressive and unsure how to .. push that aggression into a strategy? Throw in the economic crises that apparently didn't reign in ANYONE in Roman office (I mean, come on, nobody went "we can't pay the troops, maybe we can't go to war"). That is beyond belief. Throw in that during the war there were serious concerns about the Army, and heck, newspapers talking about how the army is awful and the generals are bad are the same people wanting to talk about those same armies and generals being sent to conquer. Apparently the Romans are a tinpot dictatorship all of a sudden.
Plus some of the others - Arles? Why didn't Arles step in when Roman leadership was a mess? They could have sent a letter, taken a side, and Northern Italy would have been secured for them with the Romans not being able to intervene. Apparently they just sat on their hands, which seems confusing if they're concerned about Northern Italy - like if the Ocean and Europe factions went neutral over the issue, then surely a simple intervention was not beyond the wit of Arles? Apparently they are diplomatically inactive for their own advantages, but only act in response to Constantinople?
Genuinely, the way this update reads, and frankly the arc from the end of the German War, reads like Europe flipped itself upside down because Roman Newspapers published mad screeds, and at the same time the entire Roman diplomatic apparatus took crazy pills. If that's the case then maybe D3 should want to be forgotten, because for a former bureaucrat to let those institutions just disintegrate is more of a disaster than the German War.
Legitimately, and this may be the lack of sleep talking, but I can't tell if this is going to be a minor conflict that essentially leaves Sicily as the nearest thing to a Rogue Despotate in all but name, and no Roman presence in Italy, to a war that could lead to a Roman Partition and a rollback of every gain made by D3, and heck, maybe even those made by Andreas Nikitas, with a full on Hungarian Restoration.
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I will say, I don't buy the argument that the Romans "deserve" this. In many ways the actions of apparently a cadre of utter crazy people who don't make sense to even me a guy who has openly pushed for an Alpine-Carpathian border are justification for a war. It feels like we've essentially seen D3 do everything, and the remaining Roman institutions have suffered a precipitous collapse which in itself feels like it's come out of nowhere, only for D3 to die and that collapse be laid bare. Which doesn't make sense with D3 as a character the entire time he's been in the story, at least to me - he's always been a bureaucrat and reformist, even if deeply anti-Latin.
The only thing that I can see that stops the Romans collapsing under this would be some sort of terrifying double act of Athena and Ody, perhaps assisted by Leo on the seas, not unless somehow this insane force barrelling down on the Romans decides to fall into infighting, or the mentions of issues for the Triunes in Britain a few updates back are signs of a turn for internal issues that stymie what is going on. The economy is fragile, the army is barely able to be paid, and we're on the back of essentially three defensive conflicts and onto the fourth. I get that perpetually defending itself was the Roman modus operandi but I don't know how the Empire doesn't fall into a civil war in the wake of this short of an upset that leaves the Romans with a minor victory of "not dying, and N.Italy is resolved".