A Saner Sykes-Picot

[CanadianGoose]

Just have someone give the Russians a good slapping on the grounds that their miserable performence against Germany and Austria-Hungary leaves absolutely no sane basis for attacking yet another country and the British and French will have nothing to do with such a plan.

You are aware that Russians wanted nothing more than keeping Ottomans out of war (and therefore keeping the Straits open for French shipping) and it was Turkey who attack 1st (I would say "Geben", not "Turkey", but it is a separate story worth separate discussion), aren't you? Sykes-Picot promise of Straits was more of bribing Russia to keep it in war, as she didn't have any sane reason to keep fighting except getting rid of Straits' chokehold on her neck.

There aren't a lot of rational ways to split up what was a whole. It would have been saner to leave the Ottoman Empire intact.

I can agree with this statement. Ottomans were pretty good rulers for multiethnic empire with rivalries going back centuries or millenia.

That would have avoided most of today's messes and prevented Saudi Arabia from happening.

"Jewish national land" issue is well and truly out of bag by 1917 and you need to find a sane way to reconcile. Although I would think that Zionists would be comfortable with province of Palestine within Ottoman Empire, as soon as settlement activity not restricted. And I do have my doubts about Ottomans' ability to keep Saud cat in the bag. It wouldn't be an easy task (a lot would depend on who'll get control over Gulf coast).

 

[Grimm Reaper]

The Ottomans would never have expelled the Jews from their lands as did the Arabs so you've just cut Israel's population by more than 50% in one move. Then there's the question as to just how many immigrants the Ottomans will take from Europe...also no Balfour Declaration if the OE isn't in the war.


Hashasheen, Iraq.


CanadianGoose, Russia had one huge reason to stay in the war, the French alliance and the desperately needed aid in modernizing and industrializing. To leave the war meant Germany dominating Europe, major territorial losses, the enemy alliance triumphant and Russia's allies beaten and no source of aid for many years to come even assuming willingness.

I'll allow AHP to conclude whether the OE rushed to war or all those Anglo-French-Russia partition plans of the OE might have somehow caused Istanbul to sense hostile intent.

 

[Hashasheen]

Hashasheen, Iraq.

the poorest province of the Ottoman Empire, and completly riddled with British bases, heck they wouldnt even let them have kuwait as a 13th province!

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Forgot that the British had to save their bacon......their lamb in 1941 also.

Why would they have been entitled to Kuwait, which wasn't part of the OE as the territories which became Iraq were? If anything Kuwait was cheated out rightful spoils, getting only a thin slice of expansion. It's true that Montenegro was betrayed that way...

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

I don't think that the Russians really care how many Armenians are left.

No EU scheme is practical. The idea is to cut across the realpolitik and start getting on with each other for mutual benefit.

More railway will help trade, dialogue and the Hajj. The four countries with capitals around Haifa may well form some political grouping.

The Russians had no intention of ever allowing there to be an Armenian state. It was only the collapse of Russia that allowed this to happen, briefly. If Russia had remained around, they would have settled the area with Russians and Cossacks.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Armenia is not, and has never been, a part of Turkey. Turkey giving up Armenia is therefor impossible. The plight of the large Armenian minority in eastern Anatolia during WW1 was dreadful, sure, but no way does that justify annexing those areas to the Armenian state. In 1914, there was, I believe, only a narrow Armenian majority in the area immediately around lake Van. In 1918, there were basically no Armenians left, and an eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.

Armenian arguments after the war were that their territorial award should reflect the population pre-1915, which is the origin of some pretty inflated numbers designed to try to demonstrate they were at least a plurality in the area. In reality, they were less than one-sixth the population in the region, and there were only two "counties" (Ottoman province = vilayet, subprovince = sancak, sub-sub province (county) = kaza) where Armenians were a majority, neither of which were in the Van province.

Awarding the area to Armenia is pointless as they have no hope of holding it - either Russia is in a state of collapse, in which case Armenia is alone against the Turks, or Russia is around in strength, in which case they won't allow there to be an Armenia.

 

[Hashasheen]

Forgot that the British had to save their bacon......their lamb in 1941 also.

Why would they have been entitled to Kuwait, which wasn't part of the OE as the territories which became Iraq were? If anything Kuwait was cheated out rightful spoils, getting only a thin slice of expansion. It's true that Montenegro was betrayed that way...

The Hashemites asked for territorites from Syria to Arabia. Kuwait no doubt was expected to be incorporated into the Iraqi Kingdom planned. and what ass saving are you talking about concerning 1941?

 

[CanadianGoose]

The Ottomans would never have expelled the Jews from their lands as did the Arabs so you've just cut Israel's population by more than 50% in one move.

Majority of Eastern-origin Israelis (often incorrectly labelled "Sephardim", modern name is "Mizrahi", literally just "Eastern") are from Northern Africa (Algeria, Morocco), Iran, Egypt and Yemen. Only Iraqi Jews and Syrians were Ottoman pre-WWI subject, so it isn't as dramatic as you amke it to sound.

Then there's the question as to just how many immigrants the Ottomans will take from Europe...

Yes, but pre-WWI Ottomans did not implement any significant restrictions on number of immigrants. I would say that there'are as much chances of Ottomans welcoming development of their territory as them cutting immigration off.

no Balfour Declaration if the OE isn't in the war.

Yes, but, as far as I understand, Abdul's POD is not "OE not entering WWI" but "Entente returning control to OE after WWI", which means "no Great Arab Revolt".

CanadianGoose, Russia had one huge reason to stay in the war, the French alliance and the desperately needed aid in modernizing and industrializing.

In fact, pre-WWI Russian industrialization was based on German technologies as much as French money, so Russia had some wiggle room there. Anyway, "Drive to Straits" is real. Would you read memoirs of contemporaries you would find that "Straits" was dominating battle cry of Russian Empire IOTL.

To leave the war meant Germany dominating Europe, major territorial losses, the enemy alliance triumphant and Russia's allies beaten and no source of aid for many years to come even assuming willingness.

German Domination bogeyman and duty to allies might be what drove Russia into war, but they could get over those fears. After all, Russia swallowed bitter pill of Crimean War defeat IOTL,

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Here's my division map. It's rough, not exact. The red line is the Hijaz RR as completed by 1914. Extensions were planned to Mecca & Jiddah, and to Aqaba. As an alternative, you could draw the Syrian border below Ha'il, the Rashidi stronghold.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Just a couple of points.

- There was no "Great Arab Revolt". This is largely a propaganda fantasy. The "revolt" was essentially the Sharif of Mecca and some beduin. The Arab population of Syria, Mesopotamia, Yemen, and even most of the Hijaz, remained loyal, or at the worst, did nothing at all.

- The Ottomans did restrict immigration to Palestine itself, due to fears of destabilization. It was easy to get in if you were old (a lot of Jews liked to go there to die), but otherwise, the inflow of European Jews was severely limited, although people could filter in after initially moving somewhere else within the empire.

- Once the Ottomans entered the war on the CP side, their dismemberment was inevitable (barring the unlikely CP victory).

- In the case the CP do win, the Ottomans get to keep everything, but if the victory was very late, they will have a lot of problems. They are fairly exhausted, the death toll has been horrific, the Arab population has suffered greatly in a pointless (to them) conflict, etc. I think it would be possible to get everything in order, but it won't be easy, and some concessions will have to be made to local control and autonomy. That will mean no Jewish immigration to Palestine, or at least very limited inflow.

Majority of Eastern-origin Israelis (often incorrectly labelled "Sephardim", modern name is "Mizrahi", literally just "Eastern") are from Northern Africa (Algeria, Morocco), Iran, Egypt and Yemen. Only Iraqi Jews and Syrians were Ottoman pre-WWI subject, so it isn't as dramatic as you amke it to sound.Yes, but pre-WWI Ottomans did not implement any significant restrictions on number of immigrants. I would say that there'are as much chances of Ottomans welcoming development of their territory as them cutting immigration off. Yes, but, as far as I understand, Abdul's POD is not "OE not entering WWI" but "Entente returning control to OE after WWI", which means "no Great Arab Revolt".
In fact, pre-WWI Russian industrialization was based on German technologies as much as French money, so Russia had some wiggle room there. Anyway, "Drive to Straits" is real. Would you read memoirs of contemporaries you would find that "Straits" was dominating battle cry of Russian Empire IOTL.
German Domination bogeyman and duty to allies might be what drove Russia into war, but they could get over those fears. After all, Russia swallowed bitter pill of Crimean War defeat IOTL,

 

[Grimm Reaper]

AHP, or perhaps a moderate inflow for the right price, such as for every ----- the Jews build another is provided elsewhere?

And is it true that the OE didn't have to go to war, that they were essentially pressured in to choosing war or were looking for payback after so many years of abuse? Or a combination?

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

AHP, or perhaps a moderate inflow for the right price, such as for every ----- the Jews build another is provided elsewhere?

And is it true that the OE didn't have to go to war, that they were essentially pressured in to choosing war or were looking for payback after so many years of abuse? Or a combination?

Most of the government was in favor of neutrality, leaning Entente. The War Minister was pro-CP, and was given hi chance to force the issue with the arrival of Goeben.

For those in favor of joining the war, the fear was that the winning side would have hegemony in Europe and would be in a position to dismember the empire, particularly if the winner was the Entente.

Staying out would obviously have been the better choice, but it's easy to make retrospective judgements. From the Ottoman perspective, the Powers had already forced the defacto dismemberment of the empire with the agreement for the Armenian provinces they had to accept in 1914.

 

[CanadianGoose]

- There was no "Great Arab Revolt". This is largely a propaganda fantasy. The "revolt" was essentially the Sharif of Mecca and some beduin. The Arab population of Syria, Mesopotamia, Yemen, and even most of the Hijaz, remained loyal, or at the worst, did nothing at all.

Ok, whatever. My point was that, would Entente not declare open support for Arab nationalism cause, Ottoman Empire isn't doomed to fall even if Entente won.

- The Ottomans did restrict immigration to Palestine itself, due to fears of destabilization. It was easy to get in if you were old (a lot of Jews liked to go there to die), but otherwise, the inflow of European Jews was severely limited, although people could filter in after initially moving somewhere else within the empire.

This IS a surprise for me. I was under the impression that early settlers were not seriously encumbered by hostile Ottoman policy. Those sources describe a lot of cumbersome interactions with often corrupt and ineffective local authorities, but not explicit restrictions.

- In the case the CP do win, the Ottomans get to keep everything, but if the victory was very late, they will have a lot of problems. They are fairly exhausted, the death toll has been horrific, the Arab population has suffered greatly in a pointless (to them) conflict, etc. I think it would be possible to get everything in order, but it won't be easy, and some concessions will have to be made to local control and autonomy. That will mean no Jewish immigration to Palestine, or at least very limited inflow.

I could easily draw at least half-dozen timelines with Jewish Palestine popping up in "Victorious CP" world. Germany could pressure OE to allow Jewish migration to alleviate ethnic problems in Mitteleuropa, for example.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

By 1914 the Jews made up nearly 20% of the population of what is now Israel plus the West Bank and Gaza Strip so given a limited population and limited resources, plus a cheerfully acquistive British Empire right next door, there had to be a limit on the number of immigrants the OE would accept even if they ignored any questions of which nation truly had the loyalty of those immigrants.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Ok, whatever. My point was that, would Entente not declare open support for Arab nationalism cause, Ottoman Empire isn't doomed to fall even if Entente won.

This IS a surprise for me. I was under the impression that early settlers were not seriously encumbered by hostile Ottoman policy. Those sources describe a lot of cumbersome interactions with often corrupt and ineffective local authorities, but not explicit restrictions.

I could easily draw at least half-dozen timelines with Jewish Palestine popping up in "Victorious CP" world. Germany could pressure OE to allow Jewish migration to alleviate ethnic problems in Mitteleuropa, for example.

Early settlers weren't encumbered by hostility from the Ottomans, but the problem was that many European Jews retained their original citizenship, and thus were a means of intervention by the Powers. In addition, too much immigration too rapidly caused a lot of tension with the existing inhabitants, Muslim and Christian, but also with the Sephardic and Middle Eastern Jews who were anti-Zionist.

The Ottomans themselves were ambivalent towards Zionism; in the early stages it was largely a cultural movement, and as such was viewed by some officials as a countervailing force against Western imperialism, altough some were alarmed by the nationlist implications.

Pre-Young Turks there were strict limits on Jewish immigration to Palestine - that may have broken down after 1908, but I can't recall exactly and am at work so I can't check.

If the Ottomans retain Palestine, there is no way they'll allow a Jewish political entity there, and I can't see why Germany would want to pressure them into creating one - why alienate an ally over something that is not any sort of priority for them?

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

By 1914 the Jews made up nearly 20% of the population of what is now Israel plus the West Bank and Gaza Strip so given a limited population and limited resources, plus a cheerfully acquistive British Empire right next door, there had to be a limit on the number of immigrants the OE would accept even if they ignored any questions of which nation truly had the loyalty of those immigrants.

Jewish settlement in the early period was generally limited to urban areas - mostly Jerusalem and Jaffa, and tended to be old in age as a lot of Jews in their waning years went to Palestine to contemplate God, etc. There would have been almost no Jews in the West Bank and Gaza - there weren't even in OTL until after the 1967 war.

I can't remember the % off the top of my head, but 20% sounds a bit high, especially if you include the broader area (West Bank & Gaza).

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Estimated 85,000 out of nearly 500,000 so between 15-20% sounds right if the figures are. And I don't think there were ever what you and I would call MANY Jews on the Gaza Strip.

 

[Grand Prince Paul II.]

You are aware that Russians wanted nothing more than keeping Ottomans out of war (and therefore keeping the Straits open for French shipping) and it was Turkey who attack 1st (I would say "Geben", not "Turkey", but it is a separate story worth separate discussion), aren't you? Sykes-Picot promise of Straits was more of bribing Russia to keep it in war, as she didn't have any sane reason to keep fighting except getting rid of Straits' chokehold on her neck.

Many people blame Russia for wars (the recent 5-days-war in western Transcaucasia, the last Russo-Ottoman war, the Russo-Japanese war) even then Russia was clearly the victim of a sudden attack by a neighboring state.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Many people blame Russia for wars (the recent 5-days-war in western Transcaucasia, the last Russo-Ottoman war, the Russo-Japanese war) even then Russia was clearly the victim of a sudden attack by a neighboring state.

Well, the Russo-Ottoman War in 1877 was entirely due to Russian aggression - it was totally unprovoked. For the others you have a point.

 

[Grand Prince Paul II.]

Well, the Russo-Ottoman War in 1877 was entirely due to Russian aggression - it was totally unprovoked. For the others you have a point.

I meant the Russo-Ottoman war within the Great war, not the last Russo-Ottoman war of the 19th-century.