I'd say the Ottomans are probably weakened enough that they can't properly control the Danube, and since the Mediterranean is decimated, the trade route has shifted north.
An excellent TL!
A Pale Horse: The Plague of 1512 (Revision)
- Thread starter corourke
- Start date
An excellent TL!
A very good point! One can by-pass the Bosporus all together. Very interesting results for Eastern Europe.
I would note upon re-reading the OE bit, that Corouke didn't mention Egypt in his OE post.
corourke
Donor
Egypt is currently not a part of the Ottoman Empire. It, like the rest of North Africa and the Levant, has dissolved into city states for the most part. It will take some time for it to regain any sense of stability, and as such remains a very unreliable trade route and will for some time.
The resumption of silk road trade through Safavid central Asia, coupled with the rising importance of Poland (-Lithuania, when the commonwealth forms later), will indeed cause the Danube to become much more important than it was OTL.
Later, the Volga basin will become a very important and contested area, though I won't reveal exactly who will be doing the competing just yet.
The resumption of silk road trade through Safavid central Asia, coupled with the rising importance of Poland (-Lithuania, when the commonwealth forms later), will indeed cause the Danube to become much more important than it was OTL.
Later, the Volga basin will become a very important and contested area, though I won't reveal exactly who will be doing the competing just yet.
corourke
Donor
The Horse Plague in France
The Horse Plague in France
Occitan Culture and Peasant Uprisings in France, 1512 - 1521
Occitan Culture and Peasant Uprisings in France, 1512 - 1521
France’s position straddling the Mediterranean and Northern Europe made its plague experience unique amongst the affected nations. The south of France experienced casualties rivaling those of Italy and the Iberian Peninsula. The north of France, in keeping with the plague’s temperature-based spread, was not nearly as devastated by the Horse Plague.
France’s perennial problems with its southern provinces can be traced back to the Horse Plague. The power gradient, already heavily weighted toward the north, became even more so. Peasant uprisings, though common in Europe during the plague years, were endemic in southern France, and continued long after most others had ceased. Some cities, most notably Toulouse and Marseille in the south, were effectively independent until as late as 1521, when the last cities were finally reconquered by King Francis I. Peasant uprisings continued almost constantly until the 1530s.
Some of these uprising succeeded in killing the local nobility, who were then replaced with nobles from the more stable northern lands, only increasing the alienation felt in the south. Indeed, France as a nation and a kingdom has traditionally been defined more by its perennial struggle to control its southern provinces than by any other aspect, except perhaps religion.
The movement of the Papacy in the late sixteenth century to the city of Bourges in central France only served to exacerbate these differences. The south, already by this time only tenuously attached to the faltering Catholic Church, plunged headlong into the Reformation. The peasant uprisings, which had only recently begun to wane, resumed with a passion only reserved for matters of faith. Local religious leaders publicly denounced the Pope and the King of France. It is within this conflict that one finds the most basic contradiction of French national identity, the conflict of north versus south, of Catholic versus Reformist, and, some would say, of French versus Occitan.
France’s perennial problems with its southern provinces can be traced back to the Horse Plague. The power gradient, already heavily weighted toward the north, became even more so. Peasant uprisings, though common in Europe during the plague years, were endemic in southern France, and continued long after most others had ceased. Some cities, most notably Toulouse and Marseille in the south, were effectively independent until as late as 1521, when the last cities were finally reconquered by King Francis I. Peasant uprisings continued almost constantly until the 1530s.
Some of these uprising succeeded in killing the local nobility, who were then replaced with nobles from the more stable northern lands, only increasing the alienation felt in the south. Indeed, France as a nation and a kingdom has traditionally been defined more by its perennial struggle to control its southern provinces than by any other aspect, except perhaps religion.
The movement of the Papacy in the late sixteenth century to the city of Bourges in central France only served to exacerbate these differences. The south, already by this time only tenuously attached to the faltering Catholic Church, plunged headlong into the Reformation. The peasant uprisings, which had only recently begun to wane, resumed with a passion only reserved for matters of faith. Local religious leaders publicly denounced the Pope and the King of France. It is within this conflict that one finds the most basic contradiction of French national identity, the conflict of north versus south, of Catholic versus Reformist, and, some would say, of French versus Occitan.
So it's a Catholic French North vs. a Calvinist Occitan South?
Given the Albigensian Crusade, I could imagine bad memories might linger even if the population is Catholic prior to the Reformation. Plus there are Calvinists who delight in discoursing on the Crusades and Inquisition (even though Calvin himself was no fan of religious dissidence)--perhaps they could use that to propagandize.
Given the Albigensian Crusade, I could imagine bad memories might linger even if the population is Catholic prior to the Reformation. Plus there are Calvinists who delight in discoursing on the Crusades and Inquisition (even though Calvin himself was no fan of religious dissidence)--perhaps they could use that to propagandize.
mojojojo
Gone Fishin'
your TL just keeps getting better and better. I would love to hear some more about the new world
corourke
Donor
Not Calvinist, but rather Reformist Catholic. The Reformation is the next stage of the TL, and the next few updates will deal with the lead up to the Reformist Wars and eventual religious split that emerges in Europe.
There was a peasant uprising in Paris, but it was quickly suppressed and therefore Royal control never really ceased.
I would love to hear some more about the new world
The new world doesn't get much attention from Europeans (and therefore this TL) until after the Reformist Wars have really run their course, as the Europeans had their attention otherwise occupied.
Nice update on France! Although I don't know much about France, it looks plausible and the map... just... gives me a mapgasm.
Also, I'm stupid! Michoacan comes from place of the Fish, not Tarascan, which comes from inlaw. For future reference heres a great site on the Tarascans: http://faculty.smu.edu/rkemper/anth_3311/anth_3311_adkins_tarascan_paper.htm
Also, I'm stupid! Michoacan comes from place of the Fish, not Tarascan, which comes from inlaw. For future reference heres a great site on the Tarascans: http://faculty.smu.edu/rkemper/anth_3311/anth_3311_adkins_tarascan_paper.htm
Re: England
From the epidemiological map, I see London is heavily hit, but Scotland is significantly less so. What happens to Henry VIII, Katherine of Aragon and any offspring that they've had by this time? Are they in London at the time? Did they flee to a less infected area of England?
If they do die without issue, what happens to the Tudor succession? I imagine that Henry VIII's sister Margaret Tudor succeeds to the throne, given that Scotland seems to be less severely hit. Consequently, there may be an early Anglo-Scottish union, consisting of James IV and Margaret I, with James V/II next in line, and then Mary Queen of Scots (and England)- unless Mary of Guise's forebears were wiped out in the Horse Plague...
Craig
From the epidemiological map, I see London is heavily hit, but Scotland is significantly less so. What happens to Henry VIII, Katherine of Aragon and any offspring that they've had by this time? Are they in London at the time? Did they flee to a less infected area of England?
If they do die without issue, what happens to the Tudor succession? I imagine that Henry VIII's sister Margaret Tudor succeeds to the throne, given that Scotland seems to be less severely hit. Consequently, there may be an early Anglo-Scottish union, consisting of James IV and Margaret I, with James V/II next in line, and then Mary Queen of Scots (and England)- unless Mary of Guise's forebears were wiped out in the Horse Plague...
Craig
corourke
Donor
They've managed to escape the Plague for the most part, but the Reformist Wars won't be so kind to them.
corourke
Donor
The Death of Pope Julius II
The Death of Pope Julius II
Following the Horse Plague, the central authority of the Catholic Church virtually collapsed. The chaos and death in Rome rivaled that of Istanbul and Milan, and, when the dust settled, the Pope and many clergy were dead. Because of the general chaos, records have not been preserved that exactly pinpoint his death, though it is known that Pope Silvester IV was elected in July of 1516, which implies that Julius II’s death occurred shortly before. Several theories have been proposed to explain the death of Pope Julius II. Usually, death by plague is dismissed as unlikely, because of the seclusion afforded by the Papal Palace. However, it is not impossible that he fell victim to the plague much in the same way as the royal family of Castile-Aragon, who were similarly sequestered.
It is also possible that Julius II was the subject of political assassination. Conspiracy theorists point to the fact that he was the last non-French pope for almost 130 years as possible evidence for foul play. However, this is hardly damning evidence, despite the steady shift of the Catholic center of gravity to Northern France following the Horse Plague, which culminated in the permanent relocation of the Papacy to Bourges in 1569. For the French King Louis XII to risk so much in order to gain a more firm control of the Papacy seems extremely unlikely, however this theory has been a favorite of conspiracy theorists for hundreds of years, and so is important to mention.
It is far more possible that Julius II simply perished in the fires that devastated Rome following the peasant revolt of 1514, and which burned intermittently until 1516. Known as the Arsoni, a group of individuals believed to be composed of peasants staged fires and riots across central Italy in the years between 1514 and 1516. Though believed to have been at first simply a demonstration of anger, the Arsoni began to set fires with the express purpose of looting during the distraction. Many priceless works of art and historical artifacts were lost during this period, The Lateran Palace, the historical living quarters of the Popes in Rome, was burned at least twice. It is easily possible that Julius II was killed by one of these fires, or by the riots that undoubtedly followed.
Though the true cause of the death of Pope Julius II will never be known, its affects are unmistakable. His death marked the last Pope who would permanently live in Rome without a rival Antipope elsewhere in Europe, and, some say, the beginning of the Reformation. Though the first true battles of the Reformist Wars were still years away at this time, the abandonment of Rome by the Popes caused great despair in the plague-affected regions amongst peasant and priest alike. The desire for change and recognition that inspired the Arsoni to start the first fires of 1514 was the same desire that inspired Marinus of Pisa to symbolically invert the Papal Cross in 1531, starting the Reformation outright.
The Reformist Papal Cross
Following the Horse Plague, the central authority of the Catholic Church virtually collapsed. The chaos and death in Rome rivaled that of Istanbul and Milan, and, when the dust settled, the Pope and many clergy were dead. Because of the general chaos, records have not been preserved that exactly pinpoint his death, though it is known that Pope Silvester IV was elected in July of 1516, which implies that Julius II’s death occurred shortly before. Several theories have been proposed to explain the death of Pope Julius II. Usually, death by plague is dismissed as unlikely, because of the seclusion afforded by the Papal Palace. However, it is not impossible that he fell victim to the plague much in the same way as the royal family of Castile-Aragon, who were similarly sequestered.
It is also possible that Julius II was the subject of political assassination. Conspiracy theorists point to the fact that he was the last non-French pope for almost 130 years as possible evidence for foul play. However, this is hardly damning evidence, despite the steady shift of the Catholic center of gravity to Northern France following the Horse Plague, which culminated in the permanent relocation of the Papacy to Bourges in 1569. For the French King Louis XII to risk so much in order to gain a more firm control of the Papacy seems extremely unlikely, however this theory has been a favorite of conspiracy theorists for hundreds of years, and so is important to mention.
It is far more possible that Julius II simply perished in the fires that devastated Rome following the peasant revolt of 1514, and which burned intermittently until 1516. Known as the Arsoni, a group of individuals believed to be composed of peasants staged fires and riots across central Italy in the years between 1514 and 1516. Though believed to have been at first simply a demonstration of anger, the Arsoni began to set fires with the express purpose of looting during the distraction. Many priceless works of art and historical artifacts were lost during this period, The Lateran Palace, the historical living quarters of the Popes in Rome, was burned at least twice. It is easily possible that Julius II was killed by one of these fires, or by the riots that undoubtedly followed.
Though the true cause of the death of Pope Julius II will never be known, its affects are unmistakable. His death marked the last Pope who would permanently live in Rome without a rival Antipope elsewhere in Europe, and, some say, the beginning of the Reformation. Though the first true battles of the Reformist Wars were still years away at this time, the abandonment of Rome by the Popes caused great despair in the plague-affected regions amongst peasant and priest alike. The desire for change and recognition that inspired the Arsoni to start the first fires of 1514 was the same desire that inspired Marinus of Pisa to symbolically invert the Papal Cross in 1531, starting the Reformation outright.
The Reformist Papal Cross