A LOST DREAM
CHAPTER TEN: AFTER TWELVE YEARS THEY STRIKE BACK
CHAPTER TEN: AFTER TWELVE YEARS THEY STRIKE BACK
After twelve years of being locked out of the White House it was time for the Republican Party to strike back. The party was desperate for a change and they wanted to win. In December 1999, Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee announced he was entering the race for President as a Republican. A former minister, Huckabee had wide appeal among Evangelical Christians hoping to restore a pro-life Republican to the White House. President Ferraro had gone her whole administration without appointing a nominee to the Supreme Court, and that was a relief, but it was time for the Republicans to make sure they had the opportunity to make the next round of appointments. Justice Rehnquist was aging and his seat would likely be vacated in the next few years, the Republicans needed to fill that seat. The conservative base was firmly behind Huckabee as he pursued a path to the White House and he finished second, only to John McCain, in polls. Only two weeks after Huckabee got into the race the conservative base was divided with Senator George Allen throwing his hat into the ring to challenge Huckabee for the the Republican Nomination.
Though the President already had two Republican challengers by January 21st her number one focus was on the State of the Union Address. In a prime time address to the American people Ferraro hit the ball out of the park. Her speech highlighted on the accomplishments of the Democrats and their minimum wage increase, speaking directly to middle class voters. It was a campaign speech, for sure, but what speech wasn't in this time of 24-hour news cycles and never-ending campaign cycles? The day after John McCain minimized Ferraro's post-SOTU bump by announcing his Presidential campaign in Phoenix, Arizona. Instantly, McCain rose to the front of the pack. He'd been defeated by Jeb Bush in 2000, but now he was back and he was ready to claim victory over the Republicans and ultimately Ferraro. Still, there was a lot standing in McCain's way with most Republicans feeling he was too close to the center for comfort. It was a tough campaign to swallow for the Evangelical base and as a result they went out and campaigned hard for Huckabee and Allen. Still, the moderates were united while the conservatives were united and it seemed that McCain could easily take the Republican Nomination. Then, Orrin Hatch entered the Presidential race, stealing support from McCain. Hatch had no legitimate path to the nomination but he had enough support to cost McCain the nomination.
By late February Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum had entered the presidential race as well and it was Allen who was leading the pack with McCain and Huckabee tied for second. The Republicans were dueling it out for the chance to take their message to the general electorate, but it seemed that none of them could defeat Ferraro's well-oiled machine. She had amassed a large lead in the electoral vote with Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada on her side. Polls showed that Virginia could also be in play if Ferraro played her cards right. This election was Ferraro's to lose and her approval rating stood at 50%. Despite this the President wasn't comfortable expecting victory. She hit the campaign trail early, raising large amounts of money and fighting off Republican attacks. When Republicans would hit her on education, she'd fight back. When Republicans hit her on foreign policy, she had a response. It was a zig for every zag but the election was far from over.
Internally, the Republicans were fighting to stay alive. By March the contenders held their first debate where Allen cemented himself as the front runner. He was a social and fiscal conservative but he was a likable guy. Ultimately many Republican voters were satisfied with him, but Senator Santorum wasn't satisfied. He fought hard in Iowa and slowly his numbers grew and grew to the point where he was passing Allen in Iowa in some polls. It was a tough election for both sides, but they were eager to make victory happen. By the end of April the negative attacks started coming. Allen and Huckabee hit McCain for being a moderate, Hatch hit Santorum as being "too crazy for the general electorate", and McCain remained silent. It was that silence that reemerged his campaign in May and brought his name back into the spotlight where he regained control of the pack for much of the next few months, campaigning away he fought to keep his campaign on the right track, announcing a bus tour that would take him from Iowa to New Hampshire. He hit states that weren't early in the primaries, but were rich and delegates and by the time he got to New Hampshire there was nothing to stop him. "It's John's race now," remarked one Allen campaign member as the days got longer and the temperature got hotter.
When the candidates met for the second time in July 2003 in Iowa there was a lot of tension in the air. Santorum, Allen, and Huckabee were clearly fighting against each other in hopes of setting themselves apart from the other two conservatives while McCain and Hatch appeared states like. And then there were the less prevalent candidates: Tommy Thompson, Ron Paul, and Jim Gilmore. The debate allowed Allen to once again pull ahead over Huckabee and Santorum, making it a two-way race to the nomination between McCain and Allen. Both candidates were strong campaigners but it was Allen who could really fire up a crowd while McCain was more boring. Soon Allen started to gain big endorsements: Mitt Romney, Phil Gramm, and Sam Brownback. However there were two big shakeups in August of 2003. After months of deliberation Texas Governor George W. Bush, who had won in 1998, entered the race and so did Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chafee. Chafee wiped out momentum for McCain while Bush instantly rose to the front of the pack, leading in Iowa, South Carolina, Florida, and tied with McCain in Michigan. It looked as though another Bush would be the Republican Nominee in 2004.
The third and fourth debates for the Republicans were held in September. In the first one of the month it was Allen who stole the show, again. However Chafee set himself as the moderate choice instead of McCain and the race was starting to trend in his direction. He'd grown support in New Hampshire and there were rumors about him winning Florida as well. It was bound to be a close election but the issues were holding Chafee back. In the second debate of the month Bush did better than expected. Bush was not a natural debater and sometimes his answers seemed forced but in his second debate of the primary season he did well, well enough that Tommy Thompson dropped out of the race and endorsed him the next week and well enough that Tom Ridge and Kay Bailey Hutchison announced endorsements of him by the end of September. While the Republicans continued to fight it out the polls showed only one person who could beat Ferraro: George W. Bush. It was Bush's numbers who were surging and the country was connecting with him. It was time for the country to pick a person they could relate to it and they found that in George Bush.
By the winter of 2003 the field had been reduced to Bush, Chafee, McCain, Santorum, Huckabee, Allen, and Paul. The race was intense and it was anyone's for the taking, but ultimately the delegates would decide. As Ferraro watched it unfold from the Oval Office she was comfortable with her position. She had far more money than any of the Republicans and no one was beating her in the electoral college, though Bush, Chafee, and McCain were a little too close for comfort. The election was now a year away but the Republicans were just getting started.