8mm to the Left: If Hitler Died in 1923

[gradje]

Yeah, I don't really see Germany investing a ton into the navy beyond coastal defense and a bit of prestige, as well as protecting whatever overseas colony they gain; I'm assuming Northern Namibia is going to be the most realistic target, considering it's sparsely populated and easily seized by the British and South Africans. Here's a sketch I made of what I'd think would be Germany's new Südwestafrika:

Trouble is, the place is under South African controll. They're not going to leave. Just not. From the back of my mind there comes a Smuts quote about how even if a negotiated end to WWI gave the place back to the Germans, the South African army would not leave. That's the South African attitude towards the place. Not to forget that next to the German population, there's a sizable Afrikaner population as well. Germany has lost Southwest Africa and is not getting it back.

Oh definitely, though that's also because the Nazis were deeper into crazy than I think any of us will ever really know. But you are absolutely right in that he supports the Nationalists ideologically. However, even if he WANTS to massively back them, he is in a position not dissimilar to France was IRL, whereby doing so too extensively risks the internal political stability of his own nation, especially with the SPD now veering hard towards the Stalinist Line.

How much has Von Lettow-Vorbeck shot himself in the foot by giving the SPD's momentum to the KPD by banning the KPD and causing all the elements not arrested (or fled to the USSR) to have been reintegrated into the SPD?

 

[TeluguKhan]

I kinda just hope that the Spanish monarchy survives, maybe something like it is today

 

[Deus_Vult]

How much has Von Lettow-Vorbeck shot himself in the foot by giving the SPD's momentum to the KPD by banning the KPD and causing all the elements not arrested (or fled to the USSR) to have been reintegrated into the SPD?

From the looks of it? He hasn't shot himself in the foot, no, rather he seems to have inadvertedly set up the SPD to fracture, as the communist elements are dragging the party far to the left, alienating moderates who look for less radical alternatives.

 

[Mildtryth]

I kinda just hope that the Spanish monarchy survives, maybe something like it is today

It's gonna have to be restored first.

 

[1962strat]

Thinking about it, as funny as Wels and Co. calling their party the SED was, I don’t think it quite fits? Socialist Unity in this context would imply that all socialists share a common cause, and thus suggest alignment with the USSR, which is exactly what they’re fighting against. It was no coincidence the Soviets named the OTL SED that.

The voter base they are aiming for is mostly not the ideologically driven either, but rather the worker/low-middle class people who voted for the SPD cause it worked towards their rights, but are uncomfortable with the concept of violent revolution (which I would argue would be a good chunk of the not-previously-communist parts of the SPD, especially once things calm down a bit). I would actually suggest ”German Workers Party” if the Nazis hadn’t ruined that name, lol.

 

[KaiserKatze]

I really do hope we don't get a Republican spain. Because I think it would be a missunderstanding of why the civil war took OTL curse. First off, to assume German help was vital to the nationalist effort would be a great mistake. The germans certainmly proved helpful but their involvement was only crucial in getting the african army to the mainland. The Nazi airlift is probably the most critical part of the whole german involvement.

You see Franco was rather incompetent to say the least and I frankly believed under more competent leadership, the nationalist could have achieved much faster succes. First off, the Republicans simply lacked any structured command and army leadership for the first and half years of the war. The Army had almost in it's entirety declared for the nationalists and what few loyal generals remained were quickly purged by the republican administration. The Nationalist on the other hand, had a professional and seasoned army with the army of Africa and the Legion which was very pretty well equiped and had quite competent leadership. In addition they had most regulars on their side, and the loyalty of a good chunk of the civil guard (only half joined the cause at first but throughout the war lots of republican guards defected). Meanwhile the republicans had a deeply unorganized mess of an army, poorly equiped and made mostly of volunteers. In addition the left was just more intrinsecaly divided than the right and was much less suited for a war. The Carlists and falangists at the outsed had thousands of fighters well organized into quite sizeable forces with their own officers which were quickly and effectively incorporated into the army even before Franco assumed full power.

In fact, Madrid stood by the skin of its teeth, the republican government abandoned the city. At the same time, the nationalists plans were discovered by some papers discovered in an italian volunteer's pocket. And I've read some books were it's stated that had Franco not ordered for the Alcazar of Toledo to be relieved, Madrid would have fallen. Franco overall, was regarded as a pretty poor commander for his whole career and when in charge of the infantry academy of Zaragoza it was known that military knowledge was relegated in favour of political education. And it is also well known that he deliveratly made the war longer in order to get an unconditional surrender from the republicans.

Though for all of this to happen I must recognize the airlift was crucial and the continued air support also provided quite a bit of help. But to that I have two counterarguments, first off, Italy could be convinced to provide a replacement airlift which would have been slower but still effective and that I see no reason for Von Letow to not at least provide some kind of support, specially if Franco isn't around. Let's not forget, Von Letow is a deep conservative and providing some support even if not at the Nazi level is good for his agenda. Effectively getting an ally in the form of Spain can be very useful against France if push ever comes to shove and Spain has a mineral he desperately needs, Wolframium, which I'm pretty sure the germans would require in this timeline because much of the early german rearmament was already going on before the Nazis.

I would keep ranting about the political instability and all the advantatges and disadvantatges each side had, but this is already pretty long so I'll leave it as is. I might be completely wrong and afterall it's your TL and I'm sure most of the things that happen you have dedicated many to hours to reserch and ponder. This is just my opinion and by no means it's a universal and you have every right to disagree with my take. All in all cheers!

Don't worry, nothing makes me happy like long comments on era politics and theories!

While I agree on the relative skill level of the sides, the interesting fact about civil wars is not thr nations themselves, but how their neighbours react. The Spanish Civil War was heavily determined by the intervention (or non-intervention) of the other European Powers, and it could easily have been won by the Republicans if the right steps had been taken or the right mistakes made. For example, imagine if Italy invaded Spanish Morocco or annexed the Balearics? That would really hurt fascist legitimacy. Or if France got involved for the Republicans? I think that a lot of human influence can make the difference.

 

[gradje]

Thinking about it, as funny as Wels and Co. calling their party the SED was, I don’t think it quite fits? Socialist Unity in this context would imply that all socialists share a common cause, and thus suggest alignment with the USSR, which is exactly what they’re fighting against. It was no coincidence the Soviets named the OTL SED that.

The voter base they are aiming for is mostly not the ideologically driven either, but rather the worker/low-middle class people who voted for the SPD cause it worked towards their rights, but are uncomfortable with the concept of violent revolution (which I would argue would be a good chunk of the not-previously-communist parts of the SPD, especially once things calm down a bit). I would actually suggest ”German Workers Party” if the Nazis hadn’t ruined that name, lol.

I actually think the name is fine because of what Wels and Co. imply with it. They're not the splitters, it's the SPD, now filled with the former KPD, USPD, Spartakusbund etc. members that are the actual splitters. They're trying to present continueity to the SPD base after losing controll over the party.

 

[KaiserKatze]

Trouble is, the place is under South African controll. They're not going to leave. Just not. From the back of my mind there comes a Smuts quote about how even if a negotiated end to WWI gave the place back to the Germans, the South African army would not leave. That's the South African attitude towards the place. Not to forget that next to the German population, there's a sizable Afrikaner population as well. Germany has lost Southwest Africa and is not getting it back.

How much has Von Lettow-Vorbeck shot himself in the foot by giving the SPD's momentum to the KPD by banning the KPD and causing all the elements not arrested (or fled to the USSR) to have been reintegrated into the SPD?

From the looks of it? He hasn't shot himself in the foot, no, rather he seems to have inadvertedly set up the SPD to fracture, as the communist elements are dragging the party far to the left, alienating moderates who look for less radical alternatives.

He has shot himself in the foot more than he realises, but also less than if he'd left them alone. It will be a point much-debatsd in the future

The reason I went with that name is because it draws a clear line in the sand between Communism and Socialism, a line which has grown dangerously blurry in this Germany. They want to remind people of a more negotiable Socialism. Likewise, they are hoping to show themselves as a party uniting all non-radical socialists, especially people from lower-class backgrounds, and will make plays to absorb the Leftist groups which have until now avoided their orbit.

However, the other reason I picked it, is that the SED won't have a very long shelf life

 

[1962strat]

The reason I went with that name is because it draws a clear line in the sand between Communism and Socialism, a line which has grown dangerously blurry in this Germany. They want to remind people of a more negotiable Socialism. Likewise, they are hoping to show themselves as a party uniting all non-radical socialists, especially people from lower-class backgrounds, and will make plays to absorb the Leftist groups which have until now avoided their orbit.

I would argue that it does exactly the opposite. “Socialist Unity” implies common ground between all socialists, which includes communists. There’s nothing in the name that suggests it’s limited to non-radicals. That’s why I suggested something with “German” in it, since it implies the local brand of socialists associated with the old SPD, opposed to Moscow Socialism or internationalist socialism.

However, the other reason I picked it, is that the SED won't have a very long shelf life

I wonder why, since they should take a decent chunk of the SPD vote with them, at least to be a stable middle-size party.

 

[KaiserKatze]

I would argue that it does exactly the opposite. “Socialist Unity” implies common ground between all socialists, which includes communists. There’s nothing in the name that suggests it’s limited to non-radicals. That’s why I suggested something with “German” in it, since it implies the local brand of socialists associated with the old SPD, opposed to Moscow Socialism or internationalist socialism.

I wonder why, since they should take a decent chunk of the SPD vote with them, at least to be a stable middle-size party.

Fair point, I'll think about the name and maybe I'll change it.

As for their shelf life... well, wait and see.

 

[Ramontxo]

This is not one of the themes I like to treat here. But Franco wasn't incompetent. He chose the war he wanted. In the Republican "Ofensiva del Ebro" he was in Zaragoza (North of the Ebro) and instead of going down the river north border (and bagged the best part of the Republican Army) he chose to attack from the front. Bloody mountain after Bloody mountain. He didn't want to capture his enemies. He wanted to destroy them

 

[TeluguKhan]

This is not one of the themes I like to treat here. But Franco wasn't incompetent. He chose the war he wanted. In the Republican "Ofensiva del Ebro" he was in Zaragoza (North of the Ebro) and instead of going down the river north border (and bagged the best part of the Republican Army) he chose to attack from the front. Bloody mountain after Bloody mountain. He didn't want to capture his enemies. He wanted to destroy them

I have briefly studied the Spanish Civil war, and I agree with your assessment, the right and left wanted to destroy each other, and makes sure that each others ideologies were forever extinguistied

Also why is it called the Spanish Civil War, they have had so many others that just this

 

[Mildtryth]

I have briefly studied the Spanish Civil war, and I agree with your assessment, the right and left wanted to destroy each other, and makes sure that each others ideologies were forever extinguistied

Also why is it called the Spanish Civil War, they have had so many others that just this

I presume because of the scale of the conflict, the fact that the Carlist wars tended to be more regional affairs, the fact it got more international coverage than the Carlist wars, and the fact the Carlist wars tended to be conflicts of a different order, even though the Carlists got involved in the Nationalist side too.

 

[TeluguKhan]

I presume because of the scale of the conflict, the fact that the Carlist wars tended to be more regional affairs, the fact it got more international coverage than the Carlist wars, and the fact the Carlist wars tended to be conflicts of a different order, even though the Carlists got involved in the Nationalist side too.

Personally if I was in charge of naming, I would call it the the ¨Last Spanish Civil War¨ or the ¨Great Spanish War¨"or something else not just Spanish civil war

 

[MxCokoko]

As much as I would love for Germany to gain Namibia, as well as feeling that it was the one which Britain would've been most OK with parting with, there is a bigger problem: The South Africans will never allow it. Their designs on all of Southern Africa would not let them hand over an inch of land.

Would the British allow the Germans to take a colony like the Gambia, or parts of the coast of Tanganykia then? Dealing with South Africa is difficult, and I don't realistically see a situation where the French give up anything to the Germans. Maybe they purchase some colonies from Spain (perhaps this leads to L-V supporting whichever side promises them more) or Portugal?

 

[JamesHunter]

Would the British allow the Germans to take a colony like the Gambia, or parts of the coast of Tanganykia then? Dealing with South Africa is difficult, and I don't realistically see a situation where the French give up anything to the Germans. Maybe they purchase some colonies from Spain (perhaps this leads to L-V supporting whichever side promises them more) or Portugal?

Its entirely possible for Britain to simply hand over a colony they took in 1918 (probably as part of any deal for support in the war to come). Nambia being the only exception because of the South African aspect...

 

[MxCokoko]

Its entirely possible for Britain to simply hand over a colony they took in 1918 (probably as part of any deal for support in the war to come). Nambia being the only exception because of the South African aspect...

Yeah, but it affects their idea of Cape-to-Cairo. Which makes it more difficult to imagine they hand over the entire region to a country they defeated.

 

[Mildtryth]

Would the British allow the Germans to take a colony like the Gambia, or parts of the coast of Tanganykia then? Dealing with South Africa is difficult, and I don't realistically see a situation where the French give up anything to the Germans. Maybe they purchase some colonies from Spain (perhaps this leads to L-V supporting whichever side promises them more) or Portugal?

In the case of Spain, there's hardly anything left to purchase - all Spain has is Equatorial Guinea and the Spanish Sahara by that point.

And I think Portugal would want to part with the colonies they still have the same way they'd want to sell the Algarve.

 

[MxCokoko]

In the case of Spain, there's hardly anything left to purchase - all Spain has is Equatorial Guinea and the Spanish Sahara by that point.

And I don't think Portugal would want to part with the colonies they still have anymore than they'd want to sell the Algarve.

I was considering Germany purchasing Equatorial Guinea and some of Portugal's islands nearby (namely Sao Tome).

 

[JamesHunter]

Yeah, but it affects their idea of Cape-to-Cairo. Which makes it more difficult to imagine they hand over the entire region to a country they defeated.

Cape to Cairo has already failed by this point (great depression did for the money) and if they have reconciled with Germany and the rights to build the railway are maintained it's rather plausible they would allow it. Especially if they need an ally in a nasty fight more than a rail line that isn't that strategically useful.