UKPolitics.com
Tuesday May 8th 2018
Things we have learnt from the London Mayoral Election
Tuesday May 8th 2018
Things we have learnt from the London Mayoral Election
- Dominic Eames is becoming the Labour parties narrow loser. Having lost the Party Leadership to Andrea Benn in 2014 by 3.53% on the fourth round of votes having lead after the first two rounds. Even in the Final round Eames of the three group of voting, he carried two of them (MP's & Party Members) it was the affiliated votes that carried it for Benn. Once again Eames carried the second preference votes but it was not enough to reach the 50.01% required for victory.
- Nigel Jay, is now the clear front-runner to be the next Conservative leader after next. His decision to fight the Mayoral election instead of staying within the Cabinet was a bold one, but one that has paid off. He said he would not resign as Mayor again before the 2022 election. Richard Samuels if he wins the General Election later this year it has already said he would not fight the following election in 2022/23 and would give time for his successor to settle in. If Samuels loses this year he has already said he would resign the leadership, leaving the field open for Michael Duggan who he beat easily for the leadership in 2015 as the man to beat. Jay has helped to move the party clearly away from the Thatcher/Reed & even Graty years. He can clearly appeal to NPP voters and Liberal Democrats, and even Labour voters not many people can do that.
- The opinion polls where broadly right on the first preference votes. The polls predicted almost exactly the first preference voters correctly as did the borough polls, apart from Hounslow which was regarded as likely Eames win, but Jay held on by 174 votes and Tower Hamlets which showed Morgan ahead, but Eames won it by 512 votes.
- National Peoples Party and Jonathan Freeman did very well in Barking & Dagenham, the parliamentary seats of Barking and Dagenham are going to be NPP targets at the General Election. On the first preference votes he actually finished in second place with 29.28% of the vote behind Eames 34.94%.
- Jackie Morgan and the Socialist Alliance couldn't repeat the 2014 election result. It does seem her attacks on Nigel Jay that he was a "traitor" to the LGBT community by being a Conservative and gay back fired. She also got herself into an awful mess over "flat rate fairs" policy for TFL. Never the less she still polled a strong third place on the first preference votes winning 9.23%
- Every vote can count. In such a close election it does matter, I suspect many people who would have voted for Eames on the second preference votes stayed at home on Thursday, and are now regretting it.
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