1894 UberCzar Takes Throne

David S Poepoe said:
Your scenario doesn't hold any water, or any bit of reality, if you ignore (which you have) the fact that Germany would respond differently to a Russian undergoing the changes you are suggesting. The Germans may entirely devote themselves to developing their Army if Russia carries out massive army reforms and begins building railways that aid in mobilization.

no i'm not really ignoring that. i think that might pressure britain more into a choice. so here is one last (probably not) thing for everyone to help me out with -
apparent the african colonies idea is no good.
apparently britain would not want the seized ottoman territory.
apparently britain greatly fears russia but has recently stopped trying to ally w/ germany (this might've worked differntly if the russians posed a big threat but we'll suppose otherwise for now)

what about jumping the entente cordial a few years. this would be a fantastic alliance of course. everyone has something to give and everyone has something to gain.
strategically - france on one side of the continent, russia on the other, britain "surrounding" with huge network of colonies. france+britain control africa, russia+britain control asia, russia+france keeps europe in check
manpower - france with very good army in the west, russia w/ great army in the east & strong navy, britain still clinging to 'worlds best navy' title

the reason for the alliance - russia is a fast-growing power and would be a good friend to have; france is already allied w/ her; britain can jump in and an alliance would finally put the india issue to rest (i would think??);germany and its "place in the sun" rhetoric is completely neutralized. provided none of russia/france/GB break up this guarantees peace for all times.

now with that alliance in place would russia be able to seize/keep some valuable territory.
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abdul,
yes i also was originally just going to focus on internal development but i thought what with the japanese war + norway seceding maybe i could speed it up some. originally my target date was 1914 20 years after the super tsar came to power and the original start of ww1. do you think that would be possible. i agree that russia doesn't NEED to seize the balkans or even scandinavia (tho that would be a valuable strategic position i think) but i thought it would be fun.

well i'm tired and not thinking too clearly...i am sure there is more that i wanted to say...oh well

btw i am still interested in india, can anyone think of a scenario where russia successfully seizes it?
 
That sounds much better. I can't think of a scenario where Russia seizes India, although it could happen at a later date - I'll get back to that.

I don't see any reason why the Entente can't develop earlier, provided the Russians don't go too crazy with naval building.

A war on the lines of WWI in such a scenario is likely to result in a quick defeat for Germany; I doubt the Ottomans would get involved, so the Black Sea wouldn't get cut off.

Russia will likely benefit most from such a victory, and the absense of a German threat could lead to renewed tension between Britain & Russia. By the 30s, Russian power an internal communications are great enough to threaten India, coupled with technological progress.

I would see Russian expansion directed primarily in Asia - into Manchuria and Korea, Sinkiang and Tibet, possibly leading to a war with Britain for India.
 
Abdul Hadi Pasha said:
That sounds much better. I can't think of a scenario where Russia seizes India, although it could happen at a later date - I'll get back to that.

I don't see any reason why the Entente can't develop earlier, provided the Russians don't go too crazy with naval building.

A war on the lines of WWI in such a scenario is likely to result in a quick defeat for Germany; I doubt the Ottomans would get involved, so the Black Sea wouldn't get cut off.

Russia will likely benefit most from such a victory, and the absense of a German threat could lead to renewed tension between Britain & Russia. By the 30s, Russian power an internal communications are great enough to threaten India, coupled with technological progress.

I would see Russian expansion directed primarily in Asia - into Manchuria and Korea, Sinkiang and Tibet, possibly leading to a war with Britain for India.

but if the russians did NOT go crazy w/ naval building, could they defeat japan - that is a HUGE war for russia. in fact i would say it is vital to not only defeat but to crush the japanese.

-
so you think there is scenario 1 where we have merely a developed stronger russia and therefore a very strong entente cordial, which probably skirts ww1. but would russia be able to take advantage of this new strength - would they be able to seize scandinavia and the balkans (or could they seize these territories just before the cordial) OR would they even want to in the first place?

scenario 2 calls for no signing of the cordial, russian foraying into sinkiang & then tibet & india in an all-out war w/ britain. but might this be enough to start ww1, or at least a huge war w/ russia+france and britain+germany allied against each other and maybe a few other countries jumping in for the spoils (including austria and the ottoman empire?). i see no way britain could hold india from russia alone.
 
Why would Russia want Scandinavia? By the 20th c, it is not really acceptable for European nations to annex each other. Sweden would be difficult for Russia to occupy, and an attempt is likely to generate a European war. Sweden doesn't offer much to Russia accept another large group that has a very, very, very long tradition of independent statehood that will endlessly resist Russian occupation even if Russia pulls it off. Same for the Balkans. Russian expansion into Europe will only lead to a grand alliance against the Tsar and endless problems and rebellions. It seems to me that Asia is the natural route for Russian expansion.

I don't think a large navy is necessary to deal with Japan. In our timeline if the war had continued, Russia might have won due to its superior army. In your timeline, the superior development of Russia's rail network would make it impossible for Japan to defeat the Russian army. With adequate coastal defenses, Port Arthur is safe from a naval assault. Even with a huge navy, Russia can't "crush" Japan. It would be impossible for Russia to overrrun the Japanes home islands, no matter how big the fleet.
 

Grey Wolf

Donor
Abdul Hadi Pasha said:
Why would Russia want Scandinavia? By the 20th c, it is not really acceptable for European nations to annex each other. Sweden would be difficult for Russia to occupy, and an attempt is likely to generate a European war. Sweden doesn't offer much to Russia accept another large group that has a very, very, very long tradition of independent statehood that will endlessly resist Russian occupation even if Russia pulls it off. Same for the Balkans. Russian expansion into Europe will only lead to a grand alliance against the Tsar and endless problems and rebellions. It seems to me that Asia is the natural route for Russian expansion.

OTL Russia was after more of the Finmark area (this comprises Northern Norway) during the time when Sweden and Norway were united under a single ruler. I recall this being a major Swedish fear but can't quite recall what date this was.

Regarding Japan the problem with trying to deal with her without a strong navy is that Japan can land troops anywhere it wants more or less, along the Korean and Manchurian coast. It did this in the Sino-Japanese War (where, like WW1 it was also able to land them in Shantung), and also in the Russo-Japanese War. Defeating Japan solely via a land-based campaign depends on where Japan wants to fight. If, unlike, OTL they wanted the campaign limited to Korea with perhaps Liaoyang as a secondary theatre and didn't try to push into the interior, then it would be for the Russians to assault well-defended Japanese positions which are being supplied by sea, whereas the Russian supply lines are far longer. If it becomes a question of attrition and of time then like OTL it is possible that the Russian people will tire of this war, the killings of their loved ones and the constant false hope.

Grey Wolf
 

Grey Wolf

Donor
This gives some idea of what I was talking about with regard to Finmark. IMHO its interesting enough to read the whole thing :-

http://odin.dep.no/odin/engelsk/norway/history/032005-990459/index-dok000-b-n-a.html

but if people can't be bothered to, then this section outlines the issue :-

"Undeniably, however, there was also considerable mutual distrust between Norwegians and Russians during the Pomor era. The security-policy risk inherent in the extensive contact between the populations in the north was assessed at regular intervals by senior government officials. The Norwegians and Swedes asked themselves whether the Russian authorities would take advantage of the Pomor trading activities to increase their influence in North Norway and, in time, lay claim to territories in the region. It was generally believed that Russia, originally an inland power, had powerful motives for expanding towards the oceans, and North Norway's ice-free ports would have provided the superpower in the east with direct access to the Atlantic Ocean. "

along with this interesting comment :-

"When the Russian consul general in Christiania visited the northern waters in 1858, he was struck by the contrast between East Finnmark, which virtually seethed with life and activity, and the Murmansk coast, which lay deserted and abandoned. No more than some 30 years had elapsed since a permanent national frontier had been established, dividing the former joint Norwegian-Russian territory (1826), and it was amazing to see how the mere determination of a national border could transform what was previously common territory into two totally foreign worlds. According to Mekhelin, the disparity could only be ascribed to the difference in the efforts made by the two governments concerned"

Also of interest :-

"Towards the end of the 19th century, however, there was a strong upsurge of international interest in the Arctic, and other nations, such as Sweden, England and Germany, began to engage in economic and scientific activity in Russian waters. A more active Russian policy became necessary as a result of clashes and rivalry with these countries concerning the international legal status of Svalbard, Bjørnøya and Novaya Zemlya. The Russian government was forced to decide whether it really wished to keep what were in fact considered to be Russian possessions. Its change of attitude was manifested, for instance, in a keener interest in exploring the Arctic and developing the Murmansk coast, and in the founding of a new administrative city, Aleksandrovsk (today Polyevny) on the Kola Fjord in 1899. On the other hand, the governor of Arkhangelsk was engaged in systematic efforts to colonize Novaya Zemlya, first with Nenets (Samoyeds), and later with Russians, who were to attempt to spend the entire winter on the island to underscore Russia's sovereignty over the territory. To counter the threat posed by Norwegian fishermen and sealers, the first Russian naval vessel was stationed on the coast of Murmansk. It patrolled the coastline during the summer half of the year, but spent the winter in Archangel or St. Petersburg. "

It can be seen that in fact by the natural course of economic expansion, trade etc the Russians had more to fear for the integrity of their own lands in the long run.

And finally with regard to Norway :-

"In later years, Russia made an effort to improve its relations with its neighbour in the north by giving Norway its wholehearted support during the dissolution of Norway's union with Sweden in 1905. Russia was the first major power to recognize Norway as an independent state, and played an active role in the negotiations that culminated in the "Integrity Agreement" of 1907, under which the European powers agreed to guarantee Norway's integrity as an independent state. In so doing, the Russians took the wind out of the sails of various Swedish press reports which claimed that Russia planned to take advantage of Norway's separation from Sweden to demand adjustments to the border in the north.

From the Russians' viewpoint, border relations were a subsidiary question: it was far more important that Norway had now seceded from "pro-German" Sweden, and that England should be prevented from assuming a preferential position as a guarantor of Norway's integrity. The events of 1905 show that the objective of Russia's policy as regards Norway was primarily defensive. Russian newspapers reported on the signing of the Integrity Agreement in 1907 as follows: the fact that Norway was now a neutral state whose independence was guaranteed by the great powers eliminated the possibility of a third party occupying one of the North Norwegian ports on the Arctic Ocean. Friendly relations with Norway were the best means of protection against undesirable neighbours in the vicinity of Russia's vulnerable northern territories. "

Hopefully this provides some enlightenment ! Read the rest of the article for additional context.

Grey Wolf
 
Abdul Hadi Pasha said:
Why would Russia want Scandinavia? By the 20th c, it is not really acceptable for European nations to annex each other. Sweden would be difficult for Russia to occupy, and an attempt is likely to generate a European war. Sweden doesn't offer much to Russia accept another large group that has a very, very, very long tradition of independent statehood that will endlessly resist Russian occupation even if Russia pulls it off. Same for the Balkans. Russian expansion into Europe will only lead to a grand alliance against the Tsar and endless problems and rebellions. It seems to me that Asia is the natural route for Russian expansion.

I don't think a large navy is necessary to deal with Japan. In our timeline if the war had continued, Russia might have won due to its superior army. In your timeline, the superior development of Russia's rail network would make it impossible for Japan to defeat the Russian army. With adequate coastal defenses, Port Arthur is safe from a naval assault. Even with a huge navy, Russia can't "crush" Japan. It would be impossible for Russia to overrrun the Japanes home islands, no matter how big the fleet.

japanese home islands??? that is not necessary. by quicker mobilisation of army & navy (a better navy) the russian's would emerge quickly as the dominant power. w/in a few months the japanese would realize it was a losing effort and sue for peace.. look how they came out when they were WINNING! you know why? they had no money. if they're losing the tsar can squeeze them for all they're worth. getting bogged down in a war with "weak" japan would be a pr disaster very unfortunate for the tsar.


grey wolf ---

thanks for the info...however i do not see how it really pertains to my question. yes maybe the russian viewpoint was defensive but this means there was tension and maybe w/ some work casus belli could be found...norway (and/or sweden) would be a huge victory for the russians...look at that strategic positioning over europe...if germany causes trouble and doesn't fortify denmark it would be gone in a week providing a 2 front attack on the germarns, not to mention the naval positioning which is beyond superb. however it is apparetly the opinion here that thet entente cordial would not allow it or if the war took place before the entente cordial, it would mean war w/ europe? btw remember my balkans plans called for the russians to only get a strip of land connecting them w/ the aegean sea, the vast majority of ppl would be in the hands of serbia, and greece. i have the same question as above for that one (would it mean all-out war even w/ the entente cordial in place)

finally i would still like an answer to my india question - it seems to me if russia were to invade they could take on the british fine mano a mano.

edit: btw if you think an occupation of norway can't work, once again look at the nazis...the norwegians were hardly their biggest problem!
 
czarist said:
edit: btw if you think an occupation of norway can't work, once again look at the nazis...the norwegians were hardly their biggest problem!

I think you are approaching this from the perspective of a wargame, not history. Yes, the Germans were able to garrison Norway, but the cost war war with Europe. Do you imagine the rest of Europe would just say "oh, well", if Russia began annexing European countries? The Norwegians, BTW, are not going just say "oh, well", either; they will resist forever.

Why are you equating success with territorial conquest? Occupying unwilling peoples is a drain on a nation, not a benefit.

As far as India is concerned, in a land war, if the Russians have developed a land route there, I don't think the British would be able to repel them, and Russia could replace Britain as India's imperial overlord. But, not that by the 1920s-30s, it is not likely that India can be held too much longer.
 
Abdul Hadi Pasha said:
I think you are approaching this from the perspective of a wargame, not history. Yes, the Germans were able to garrison Norway, but the cost war war with Europe. Do you imagine the rest of Europe would just say "oh, well", if Russia began annexing European countries? The Norwegians, BTW, are not going just say "oh, well", either; they will resist forever.

Why are you equating success with territorial conquest? Occupying unwilling peoples is a drain on a nation, not a benefit.

As far as India is concerned, in a land war, if the Russians have developed a land route there, I don't think the British would be able to repel them, and Russia could replace Britain as India's imperial overlord. But, not that by the 1920s-30s, it is not likely that India can be held too much longer.

you're probably right...it's just so tempting! i just think the strategic value of norway might make up for the drain on resources, esp. if those are being balanced by an increase elsewhere.

about india-- you don't think the british would have a strong alliance in their favor? if not and russia overtook them...would they annex india as well?? they never really were ones to set up puppet states until the communists took over. i just wonder how they wouild govern as huge a nation as india, or if they'd end up "splitting' it w/ britain?

thanks SO much everyone for the replies so far...it has been a great help, thanks for your knowledge & patience!
 

NapoleonXIV

Banned
This is an exemplary thread, a well-informed proposal has been criticized constructively by others equally well informed.

And its gone on long enough, too. We need some really silly observations but don't worry, I’m here now. :D

In re: Russia’s invasion of India. She could, but first she’d have to get her troops through Kazakhstan, (that was a different area in the 19thc, I think, but no more friendly to Russia) a very remote area with a populace that was never too resolved to being Russians. The Crimean war illustrated that Britain could supply an area if she had sea access, whereas Russia had real problems in getting to all parts of its own territory, let alone bordering ones.

Which leads to a question. Why would a supersmart Uberczar go in for territory grabbing all around his periphery and overseas. Remember Boris Godunov: “I bring you mountains of furs, rivers of gold and acres of timber, the bad news is, its in Siberia “ Even the czars of OTL were smart enough to build the Trans-Siberian, why wouldn’t an enlightened autocrat decree the Baikal-Amur spur among others with 'encouraged' settlement and eventually cities in the taiga. This could build up his tax base and allow him to pay and equip this huge new navy and army, maybe even feed the starving peasant or two, although we don’t want to go overboard yet.

Now, what about America? By 1900 American support or opposition was recognised by most of Europe as something of a deciding factor in many of their plans, if they could get it. America had proven in the Civil War that she could raise and equip an Army that could fight those of all Europe put together. America was also building a fleet that rivaled the British and it was an American military theorist (Mahan) who was the world leader in naval doctrine. America at this time was no more isolationist than she was at most times in her history, secure behind two oceans, but having a considerable recent immigrant base who still had concerns about their former homelands

How would the US have reacted to a resurgent Russia?, the nation that even DeToqueville in the 1830’s had somewhat characterized as America’s most natural enemy. Particularly in the North Pacific the US and Russia had interests in the control of strategic trade routes and China. The US favored the Open Door policy, the Russians wanted Manchuria. Part of the reason for Perry’s opening of Japan had been concerns that Russia would do it first. I don’t really know what the US would do but I think it would do something.

Otherwise, I can do no more than just echo most everyone else. By 1900 the era of naked imperialism was closing. Nations needed at least some lip-service about the protection of foreign nationals or some other bs to justify naked aggression and land grabbing. Russia never had that good a rep among Western nations and if she was to suddenly start invading people and sending the Okhrana out to violate other nation’s sovereignity….

One other thing, the Czar’s renouncing of all future territory claims in Europe would be a violation of PanSlavism and also probably met by a rousing chorus of “yeah…right” from the rest of Europe.

One suggestion. What if, instead of trying to grab colonies and territory for herself, Russia would style herself the champion of the world’s downtrodden colonials? She would do this, of course, largely as a justification for her own ambitions in this area. Even well before 1890 Imperialism was criticised on moral and practical grounds. I believe all nations did this to some extent but Russa, with no colonies of her own, (but many clear colonial interests) could claim the moral high ground in this area
 
more good stuff napoleon thanks. unfortunately most of it is over my head (as abdul said i have mostly a wargamers approach to foreign policy [tho i've never played any wargames]) but hopefully some others can comment. here's my quick thoughts before the superbowl -

i think any moral highground russia has re colonies will be shot down due to their being by far the most autocratic of western nations. i'm also not quite sure what you mean them to do - things like arming the boers? or something more under the radar? i just don't know what they can do w/out provoking war with a major nation. also since EVERYONE was doing it, it would be hard to pressure anyone w/out taking action by war.

re: renouncing of claims in europe - i don't see how that violates panslavism...but i agree it is farfetched - i hoped it would work because a)europe could create a special alliance to enforce it and b)the major nations direct interests were not harmed. if it could somehow be guaranteed that russia was done, it would be reasonable for them to just accept peace rather than risk a huge and destructive war. however as pointed out this doesn't account for the serbs and it's a stretch anyway, plus they might be at war even before russia reached peace w/ turkey.

i really have NO idea about the US taking action, but i'm sure someone does. i just don't see what they could do. plus might it mean provoking france?

so i guess it's agree that russia's best course of action would be

1)internal development
2)defeat japan (very possible w/ modernized navy + railroad..right?)
3)regroup, overrun & annex indian subcontinent (tho this would involve all sorts of intricacies i'm sure w/ britain being pesky little devils as suggested earlier) --- and it's generally agreed germany would not aid GB here? perhaps re the kazakstan problem we could assume the tsar would anticipate it early and develop an adequate support system.
 

Grey Wolf

Donor
What Kazakhstan problem ? The Kazakhs were subdued by the 1850s and the three remaining independent states (Khokand, Bokhara and Khiva) by the 1870s.

It should be noted though that with regard to Russia having colonies it can be argued that Khiva and Bokhara fell into that field as both remained under their hereditary rulers with their own courts and little armies, as protectorates of the Russian Empire

Grey Wolf
 
i thought he meant that the region was unstable w/ underlying malcontent & very backwards in regards to rail systems all of which making it hard to use it as a base of operations. i'm not sure if that's logical tho & i can't vouch for the accuracy.
 

Grey Wolf

Donor
czarist said:
i thought he meant that the region was unstable w/ underlying malcontent & very backwards in regards to rail systems all of which making it hard to use it as a base of operations. i'm not sure if that's logical tho & i can't vouch for the accuracy.

Given that any Russian invasion has either got to come through Afghanistan, Kashmir or maybe Ladakh if it sweeps through a bit of Sinkiang, its all mountainous and difficult terrain. The forces needing to be used will not be the mass regiments of line infantry but ones more suited to the rough terrain. The logistical and supply issues would not initially be any more difficult than it was for the conquest of Khiva, Bokhara or Khokand.

The problem comes if you are postulating an invasion of India proper. There is a strong and very efficient Indian Army, part of the British army (they were integrated fully IIRC but separately commanded by the Viceroyalty's military command). You only have to look at where the Indian regiments fought in OTL to see that they were viewed as an integral part of the army, not some colonial second rate force - e.g. during the Alexandra/Tel el Kebir campaign of 1880, a large part of the British force in Egypt were Indian regiments.

These will be defending their homelands, have all the advantages of interior lines, sympathetic populace, well organised government etc.

Grey Wolf
 
well that is interesting. i had not considered an indian army, that would suggest the conflict would end w/ disastrously large russian casualties and maybe a total retreat..certainly not overtaking the entire subcontinent. i mean i could definitely see that getting bogged down pretty quickly even if russia threw millions at the british/indians...
HOWEVER is there any chance napoleon's scenario above could come into play here. the winds of change were a blowin by this time and perhaps russia could maybe subvert british rule internally somewhat, maybe even by portraying themselves as some kind of liberator (obviously they would be doing that almost by default, but could they make it appear to have any merit??). i mean i can picture the indian army dividing into 2 camps, one pro-russian and one pro-british..the brits probably still have an advantage but the russians might be able to get some valuable territory and force a peace.

i'm just wondering because w/ a large well trained indian army involved, and the bonus of being on the defense w/ good organization, i just can't see how this would be very feasible but apparently the brits thought it was...was this what was meant earlier in the thread when someone said it was very silly of them to basically revolve their foreign policy around it? i just can't see how the russians could win unless this indian army is much less than you make it out to be either weaker in spirit or weaker in body...

edit: now that i think about it any sort of upheaval would probably = russian victory, don't you think
 
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Grey Wolf

Donor
From what I have read about realistic British fears they were on two levels

1. Russia's spreading of influence into the outlying areas - for a long while, whilst China was in internal crisis, this included not only Afghanistan and Kashmir, but also Tibet (Ladakh was British Tibet more-or-less). Tibet was an autonomous vassal of the Chinese Empire and Britain and Russia competed for influence in Lhasa. This spreading of influence could be either by subversion of the centre (e.g. at the court in Lhasa in Tibet's case) or by subversion of autonomous elements of a nation - eg arming the Pathans in Afghanistan etc

2. That British imperial hegemony over India could be undermined. This is where the real hope of removing the viceroyalty is, as you have identified. Japan tried this in WW2 and had some elements of success, but the fear about Russia being able to do this was probably more realistic if one looks at the pattern of Russian expansion over Central Asia. In addition, Russia with its Central Asian peoples and protectorates, could portray itself as having similar make-up and interests to some of the Indian peoples.

It has to be remembered that India was not a homogenous whole - it was a mixture of vassals/protectorates and of direct crown colonies. The biggest danger for Britain would have been a resumption of the kind of wars which had previously involved the French, where both Britain and France financed and outfitted rival Indian princes who fought in their interest. If British rule was undermined sufficiently, then it would be a legitimate fear that some of the more independent-minded princes could be suberted by the Russian Empire

In addition, there was the potential of a religious divide. The Ottoman Empire tried to use this in WW1 by having the sultan (who was also Caliph) declare Jihad, but very few Indians took any notice. Its a slight possibility that Russia could try to undermine the British in India by playing on religious differences - Russia's own central Asian peoples are Muslim, they exercise protectorates over Khiva and Bokhara (Muslim khanates) and could try to build on this

I think, though, in order for it to work Britain needs to be seriously weakened elsewhere and for this to be a knock-on effect

Grey Wolf
 
The British Indian Army was very good, tho it didn't have its own artillery. The British Army had artillery regiments assigned to India for that matter. The BIA is extremely good at hill and mountain fighting given their northern border. There are few mountain passes that an invading army can pass through to India, so the Russians will be paying in blood for every yard.

Also I would consider the fact that the hill tribes of Afghanistan wouldn't welcome the Russians anymore than they would the British. I would expect the Russians to have a very hard time in Afghanistan and on the way towards the Khyber Pass. The BIA is to hold the front and buy time until the Regular British Army, and other colonial forces, could be brought to India.
 
David S Poepoe said:
The British Indian Army was very good, tho it didn't have its own artillery. The British Army had artillery regiments assigned to India for that matter. The BIA is extremely good at hill and mountain fighting given their northern border. There are few mountain passes that an invading army can pass through to India, so the Russians will be paying in blood for every yard.

Also I would consider the fact that the hill tribes of Afghanistan wouldn't welcome the Russians anymore than they would the British. I would expect the Russians to have a very hard time in Afghanistan and on the way towards the Khyber Pass. The BIA is to hold the front and buy time until the Regular British Army, and other colonial forces, could be brought to India.

I think the olny strategy that could have goiven the Russians a fighting chance would be to seek out secret alliances with Muslim rulers in the north. The Mutiny isn't that long ago, and many of the Muslim upper classes resent being upstaged by Hindu administrators and bankers who, under the protection of British law enforcement and a legal concept of property changed massively in their favour, are putting on the squeeze. If the Russians can make it credible to them that they will bring back 'the good old days when a man could be a man and a Hindu paid what you told him to' (or somesuch) they could find themselves with local allies and good connections into Afghanistan (the mountain tribes might well be willing to entertain the prospect of plundering northern India NOW and dealing with the Russians LATER). That would still leave them at a disadvantage, but not such a large ones. The British had relatively limited artillery and engineer units, but the Russians would find it hard even to match, let alone trump these along their overstretched supply lines. Also, there were foundries and shipyards in Bombay and Calcutta that could have turned out field guns if it got desperate. Ammunition would not be a problem (India exports gunpowder at the time), and by way of recruits, I'd be surprised if the Sikhs, Doghras, Gurkha and martial-caste Hindus wouldn't stand up against a Muslim resurgence. Nonetheless, if things go very badly for the British, the Russians may end up with military control of the Punjab, Kashmir, Baluchistan and chunks of the Hill Country. I doubt they'd have a quiet minute afterwards, though.

Let alone the drain on resources that will be needed when Japan attacks Manchuria and Korea. REmember, they areone of Britain's more obligated debtor nations...
 

Grey Wolf

Donor
I am intrigued by why everyone thinks a clash with Japan was inevitable ? OTL their interests clashed because Russia was pursuing an aggressive policy in Korea and in Manchuria, but if Russia was NOT doing that, i.e. was pursuing a Central Asian gambit, then probably Japan would evolve a free hand in Korea and China would probably hold on to Manchuria. The policy of Russian settlement in the East and exploitation of Manchuria had a large number of detractors in Saint Petersburg (I believe Witte was one) and was far from inevitable. It can in one sense be seen as Russia trying to make sure its outlying areas are well populated and distinctly Russian (like with Russian Finmark mentioned earlier).

However, this Uber Czar (Veliki I believe was Russian for Great) is supposed to NOT make the mistakes of Nicholas II. One can argue not that LOSING the Russo-Japanese War was a mistake, but fighting it in the first place was.

Grey Wolf
 
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