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  1. What if Japan attacked the Dutch East Indies in 1936?

    Interesting - take a look at this campaign map from December 1941. Granted it does not provide an evidentiary suggestion from before December 1941, but it is certainly earlier than 1944. https://i0.wp.com/amti2016.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/3.jpg See the two expeditionary assault...

  2. Indochina War if the KMT wins in the CCW

    Tough call, maybe?

  3. Indochina War if the KMT wins in the CCW

    Viet Minh had showed decent survival/durability capability already. Forcing a final victory or making a military achievement like Dien Bien Phu would be tougher for the Viet Minh. Not having the over the border Chinese help is a disadvantage compared to OTL, but it is not some sort of spell of...

  4. Russian North Persia - Administration, Settlement etc?

    If northern Persia stays Russian for as long as Central Asia, especially if Russia goes through a Soviet era and Stalinist style population movements, the long term differences could be quite profound. See this interesting article by this niche academic substacker, The Great Gender Divergence...

  5. Without the Italo-Turkish War, does WWI still happen?

    WWI via the path we knew could be derailed. .....but we could get there, via the same, Sarajevo, station, without the Libya, Rhodes, Albania, Macedonia, Chatalja stops in between. Precedents and steppingstones and breadcrumbs to an Austro-Serb blow-up were already starting to form a pattern -...

  6. AHC: 1999 “Battle of Seattle” is less violent and more skillful.

    Media habits (the attention economy) make us do it this way I guess.

  7. Independent Manchuria

    Not only was Manchuria as a whole majority Han by 1900, Liaoning, southern Manchuria, that whole area around the Yellow Sea, bridging to Korea, including Mukden/Shenyang and the Kwangtun/Guangdon peninsula, *that* had been majority Han for at least 500 years. The Han exclusion only ever applied...

  8. WI: Kühlmann's "Peace Kite" Flies, a Negotiated End to WWI in 1917?

    Did you read the Zelikow book on this overall topic, by any chance?

  9. WI: Atomic Bombing on German cities?

    But even without the exagerrated faith in the majestic , decisive, deterrent power of the bomb, would the US in the mid and late forties have had the political will to maintain a large standing army, and get over its historical aversion to maintaining one on a permanent basis? Despite the WWII...

  10. Consequences of the collapse of the Soviet Union for the Pacific War

    With a Soviet collapse being after Pearl Harbor, but before the beginning of 1943, Japan can gain some short-term benefits. *If* the Soviets via defeat are brought into an armistice and forced to yield track and cargo space, Soviet territory can be used for strategic trade between the European...

  11. Russian North Persia - Administration, Settlement etc?

    These ethnic minority majority areas, especially in the northwest like Azerbaijan and the north like the Gilan Caspian coast were anything but sparsely settled in Persian terms. They were some of the most densely populated parts of Persia. Then, and to this day, the population in Iran and...

  12. How scary can 1920s-1930s Soviet Union be to Europe and the United States?

    Do you think it was really plausible to have gone that far, and that, at that historic juncture, Afghanistan internally and tribal religious networks across the border in British India, and Muslim communities, lacked the money, media, community sense, international networking to get a...

  13. How scary can 1920s-1930s Soviet Union be to Europe and the United States?

    There "should" be, there "could" be, there often is, from a common AH.commer's POV, which I find pretty Cold War inflected. But there was also in the interwar Germany, including on the right and in the Reichswehr, a significant, "let's split up Poland" contingent who sought to destroy and...

  14. Hitler's Gamble by Brendan Simms

    I really think it would have been an inefficient employment of US resources, with virtually no visible improvements over OTL on the campaign map within calendar year 1942, because of the logistical and distance challenges of getting US aircraft and pilots and basing them near points of contact...

  15. Xi'an Incident kills Chiang Kai-Shek

    This is completely imaginable. The Japanese don't rape Nanjing, they line up and pay their fees at tow/city red light district brothels like (relatively) civilized men. All these alternatives are conceivable. They may seem a little strange to us, but stranger things have been proposed, and...

  16. USSR gets absolute victory in the Winter War, effects on WW2.

    These responses all assume *too much* that for greater Soviet gain, and aggression, there *must* be an equal and opposite anti-Soviet Western Allied reaction. I say to the contrary, not at all. Soviet aggression against Poland, the Baltics, Romania, did not cause permanent unforgivability of...

  17. Xi'an Incident kills Chiang Kai-Shek

    They were by 1936 facing a lot of resistance, or desire for it, in the northwest - from the warlords who kidnapped CKS, Yang Hucheng and Xiang Xueliang, and Fu Zuoyi, who in 1936 inspired even more resistance sentiment by successfully repelling a Japanese probe deeper into his own part of...

  18. Hitler's Gamble by Brendan Simms

    Even with the Lusitania, there is no straight, linear, inevitable, uninterruptible line from the Lusitania sinking in May 1915, less than a year into the war, and the US DoW in April 1914, 23 months, nearly two years, later, after several quite important intervening incidents and diplomatic...

  19. USSR gets absolute victory in the Winter War, effects on WW2.

    I think this part is a little bit of an overoptimistic extrapolation. The whole situation could indeed make Norway trickier for Germany, but Germany is *not* going to let northern worries let it take the eye off the ball in the Low Countries and France in spring 1940.

  20. USSR gets absolute victory in the Winter War, effects on WW2.

    It is said, but it is BS. Such an observation or theory of causation is the classic example of the post hoc, ergo propter hoc logical fallacy. That is latin for "this happened after this, therefore it was because of this" which fails to separates coincidences from causes. Correlations, even...
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