Sorry for the tardy reply, but I was implying that Portugal would keep Brazil and Uruguay while Argentina was up for grabs,
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WI: The Spanish didn't conquer the Inca Empire? How things would evolve to the Inca?
- Thread starter I_am_Unk
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Sorry for the tardy reply, but I was implying that Portugal would keep Brazil and Uruguay while Argentina was up for grabs,
The video has some issues and seems to conflate the post Inca spread of quechua but it'd also the spread it would be like comparing as rome had more time than the inca
The Inca not only made the sons of the conquered people live in Cuzco before sending them back not only would they learn quechua but also grew up in the very capital and adopt many aspects of culture and for the most part it worked see how the cañaris who put a lot of resistance became now the base of operations against the northern Ecuador tribes and did not join them by Huayna capac rule
Ah, yes. I imagined so.
Yeah, it kinda dawned on me that I don't understand much about how Inca society worked at all, plus the fact that the spread of Latin actually took a bit more time than the Incas were occupying said territories. I stand corrected in that regard. Now... How fascinating! Couldn't have thought a better way of integrating people than that if it were me. Didn't the other native societies push back against this, though?
Perhaps, the Plata basin, like the Amazon basin, is a closed circuit, which means that whoever controls the entrance to the basin controls all or most of the region. Because there is only one way out, if Portugal manages to colonize Sacramento, this already makes it difficult for another power to enter, if they manage to place other trading posts (which in English is trade post, but the correct way would be a wooden fort/pit stop) in the Plata basin I tend to imagine that what happened in the Amazon will happen there.
I think a good comparison would be with Rome or China in their way of conquering and absorbing other peoples.
Yes chimu surrendered and the king was allowed to keep his throne but of course his son would be sent to Cuzco still chimu had privileges like the king still being Curaca and they could bear arms and have Armies they revolted Huayna capac came destroyed Chan Chan so much so that it was abandoned soon after, the royal family of chimu was sent to exile and the people lost their privileges again like Rome.
Another example of resistance was chachapoyas who many lords made the conquest easier made it harder to integrate to add to this the Inca also had another thing in common with Rome well mostly Eastern Rome an example was how in Greece the Romans deported the slavs of Greece to Anatolia and brought Greeks to the area in that way it weakened the slavs while moving them to be productive in the east.
The Inca did the same deporting many to weaken them and moving them to productive areas and colonized the area usually first by Inca nobles so yeah the empire was big on integration like Rome foreign gods were added to the pantheon but even better they conquered people were added to the inca founding myth or strong cultural myths to further integrate them.
It's just the Inca empire from this major conquest lasted like 80 years way to short to see the long term consequences of its policies
I'll keep the comparison in mind. Though, in Rome and China's case, they didn't have a conquering Empire in the doorstep of their core territories. Persia was always in the edge of the Roman Empire and China had the Mongols and Turkics at best, none of which had the potential to assimilate them instead of the other way around.
Hmm... Yeah, with all of this in mind I can visualize better the Incas stumbling a bit because of the crisis brought by European arrival, but overall go to exist well into the 17th-18th century. Perhaps when the Europeans gain the upper hand with the Industrial Revolution that situation might change, but that would already mean a Native American Peru, Bolivia and even parts of Chile and Argentina. That would certainly result in a much different political landscape in South America.
They did especially when Rome moved the border east the Sassanid were the aggressors very near the core same later with the caliphate but the Spanish aren't near the core
I think an important distinction to be made is how this Spanish failure to conquer the Inca goes about. Does Pizarro fail militarily? Does the opportunity never even arise because of a gimped Spain having more limited opportunities? IMO the most important component of Inca survival is their relationship with Europeans as a collective as well as with each individual European state.
An Inca Empire that is never truly threatened by Europeans during OTL's conquest, still goes through their civil war, and is then forced to rebuild in relative isolation and ignorance of the wider world is one that's still going to be vulnerable to future incursions. And if the conquest of the Aztec + the conquest of Malaya goes as OTL, then I'd expect that they're still on the menu for quite a while. I doubt that things could go as pear shaped militarily with the worst possible timing as OTL, but it's still going to be ugly and leave the Inca as Europe's pinata from which easy gains in exchange for military force for a long time.
As an example, say the Inca after first peaceful contact with Portugal start focusing more on their coastline due to the value they find in trade. The Inca won't be aware of their own degree of need for horses and labor animals, steel weapons and armor, or firearms and cannons. The lack of military threat from these initial traders will only expose the relative backwardness of their society as a military threat to Europeans while leaving them in relative ignorance; trade is strictly on Portugal's terms. They'll cotton on to some things over time I'm sure, that's inevitable, but Europeans will still have a growing perception in their abilities to project power overseas that will be validated by every success and that will ignore every failure(see: why nobody talks about Spain's adventures in the American South or how much conquistador manpower was wasted in the Amazon because they were independent actors willing to send it for the myth of El Dorado). I'd be very surprised if they never have to deal with a Spanish conquistador venture or the Portuguese deciding that they can extend their extortion racket(sorry, feitoria system) to the Inca and start seizing ideal ports and fortresses along the coast.
IMO the biggest pro of a failed Spanish invasion that roughly happens around the same time as OTL is that the Inca are immediately forced to touch grass and can see how close they came to losing it all to (OTL several competing) bands of loosely sanctioned soldiers of fortune. Without that immediate awareness, the Inca will return to what they know and will effectively become another Malacca, Sri Lanka, Kongo, or Aztec Empire just with a slow cook timer.
Now I am painting a pretty pessimistic scenario here and assuming the Inca will exist in complacency. Who's to say the Inca won't hear of Spanish Mexico and the details of that conquest within a decade of first contact? The Inca do have something most of these other states don't have, and that's a ridiculous degree of centralization by the standards of the day. The state serving as a social safety net, arbiter of labor and resource distribution and the isolating nature of the Andes means that the Inca are simultaneously the whip and the glue. Most of the Andes truly can't afford to go back to the before times of isolated statelets, especially in a post-apocalyptic setting that the Inca are effectively going to be living through. Unlike many other states of the time, there's sincerely social pressures that will encourage the (Andean) Inca Empire to pull itself back together. IMO that's ultimately what we saw with OTL's Inca civil war. And that's without getting into the Inca's penchant for playing with demography(see: ethnic cleansing, deportations, settler colonies, othering of non-conformance, etc.). We saw an impressive degree of homogenization for what was ultimately what, 80 years? We arguably saw something akin to the Mandate of Heaven arise in the Andes in the timespan the Inca existed and it's a concept that I think would only be further reinforced with even a mediocre attempt to repair the realm after the civil war + the rampant pandemics.
My take is that a scenario where the Inca avoid early conflict with Europeans their first wars are in the late 16th or early 17th century, they're going to get the Burmese treatment. Lose control over their ports, ultimately getting humiliated militarily, and being turned into a tributary that's paying their dues in large amounts of bullion and as a captive market now that their demography has rebounded somewhat. Truly an Emperor has no clothes moment, and I'd expect the Inca's trajectory to mirror something akin to a much less populous Japan in mentality while getting the 19th century China experience. Flirting with anti-imperialism and ideologically convenient ideologies, Emperor worship, and an obsession with restoring their own sense of dignity while simultaneously being plundered economically, militarily disregarded as any sort of threat, and seen as liable to be influenced and extorted by outside powers with ease.
On the other hand an early pants down moment for the Inca will alter the trajectory of their rebuilding after the civil war and leave them more exposed early on which is likewise more dangerous and going to leave them prone to more 'checks' by conquistadors et al while simultaneously leaving them as a competitive latecomer to the gunpowder empire club(IMO). They've got enough wealth, demography, control, and inertia behind them that I think they'd stabilize and not be in immediate danger of European aggression until the the late 18th/early 19th century akin to the rest of the world's notable states that dodged early imperialism. But with an already established tradition/glorification of 'modernization'/adopting the knowledge of others which they can(and does) harken back to the pre-contact Inca Empire and their adaptations to the different peoples and their knowledge that they in turn used to build their empire. I don't think the Inca would be as exposed or as vulnerable as the early 16th century ever again due to sheer need to Never Again any such incident.
Internally I'd expect the Inca to continue to homogenize demographically the longer that their realm lasts, and to follow a trajectory similar to China in that even the people that aren't strictly Quechuas, sun worshippers, or even politically aligned with the Inca ruler to still see value and legitimacy in the Sapa Inca, his state apparatus, the Quechua language, and the resource management the state provides. The political dynamics of this state would be up in the air of course, but assuming OTL's civil war still goes down then the asses of the Inca aristocracy are exposed and are liable to be disfavored compared to the Inca bureaucracy, the thing actually keeping the whole state running. This is why I lean heavily into parallels with China politically and Japan ideologically. The Inca are a hopscotch away from kneecapping the power of regional lords and atomizing political power to the village level; to a degree this was already true but putting most of the reigns regarding regional management in the hands of bureaucrats instead of aristocrats isn't far removed from what happened OTL. Really the biggest leap is distancing the bureaucracy from the aristocracy as a source of manpower for it. So long as the two are entwined the Sapa Inca is vulnerable to their influence. And I'm sure that the rulers of the Inca will be painfully aware of this with the benefit of hindsight after the civil war. Who were Huascar's backers? Where was their power center? If the Inca already stratify their society such that they can train dedicated metalworkers/weavers/etc. then I've no doubt that a dedicated class of bureaucrats that extends past quipu counters/weavers could and in time would arise.
I'd also expect a shift in interest to the seas, building off of both European contact/trade and the legends of Tupac Yupanqui. Growth in coastal cities would be marred by the Inca being unable to control these cities to the same totalitarian degree they control their mountain cities, but would still boom. Routes that transport silver and other metals, textiles, dried foods, building materials, and quinine for foreign trade would be established akin to the Royal Inca Road. The above would be the Inca's major exports, while in turn Europeans would trade in what we all expect; OTL's major notable goods from the Colombian exchange at first alongside weapons and armor, but I think trade would find a few dedicated niches unlike in China that found little interest in trade with Europeans. Off the top of my head, ships and in the longterm, lumber, would be a big one. I sincerely doubt the Inca will close inwards or disregard the rest of the world. Luxury goods from the rest of the world would be another; trading Chinese porcelain for Inca silver would likely be enormously profitable for the Portuguese. Artisan goods from Europe would likely see a steady trade as well, from clocks to wine. I'd expect the Inca to in time build up their own local industries but the Europeans will have a good window of time for reliable trade. Though I think what the most reliable trade good would be is ultimately slaves. The Inca are in a manpower crunch, and guess who just specialized in transporting manpower for exploitation?
An Inca Empire that is never truly threatened by Europeans during OTL's conquest, still goes through their civil war, and is then forced to rebuild in relative isolation and ignorance of the wider world is one that's still going to be vulnerable to future incursions. And if the conquest of the Aztec + the conquest of Malaya goes as OTL, then I'd expect that they're still on the menu for quite a while. I doubt that things could go as pear shaped militarily with the worst possible timing as OTL, but it's still going to be ugly and leave the Inca as Europe's pinata from which easy gains in exchange for military force for a long time.
As an example, say the Inca after first peaceful contact with Portugal start focusing more on their coastline due to the value they find in trade. The Inca won't be aware of their own degree of need for horses and labor animals, steel weapons and armor, or firearms and cannons. The lack of military threat from these initial traders will only expose the relative backwardness of their society as a military threat to Europeans while leaving them in relative ignorance; trade is strictly on Portugal's terms. They'll cotton on to some things over time I'm sure, that's inevitable, but Europeans will still have a growing perception in their abilities to project power overseas that will be validated by every success and that will ignore every failure(see: why nobody talks about Spain's adventures in the American South or how much conquistador manpower was wasted in the Amazon because they were independent actors willing to send it for the myth of El Dorado). I'd be very surprised if they never have to deal with a Spanish conquistador venture or the Portuguese deciding that they can extend their extortion racket(sorry, feitoria system) to the Inca and start seizing ideal ports and fortresses along the coast.
IMO the biggest pro of a failed Spanish invasion that roughly happens around the same time as OTL is that the Inca are immediately forced to touch grass and can see how close they came to losing it all to (OTL several competing) bands of loosely sanctioned soldiers of fortune. Without that immediate awareness, the Inca will return to what they know and will effectively become another Malacca, Sri Lanka, Kongo, or Aztec Empire just with a slow cook timer.
Now I am painting a pretty pessimistic scenario here and assuming the Inca will exist in complacency. Who's to say the Inca won't hear of Spanish Mexico and the details of that conquest within a decade of first contact? The Inca do have something most of these other states don't have, and that's a ridiculous degree of centralization by the standards of the day. The state serving as a social safety net, arbiter of labor and resource distribution and the isolating nature of the Andes means that the Inca are simultaneously the whip and the glue. Most of the Andes truly can't afford to go back to the before times of isolated statelets, especially in a post-apocalyptic setting that the Inca are effectively going to be living through. Unlike many other states of the time, there's sincerely social pressures that will encourage the (Andean) Inca Empire to pull itself back together. IMO that's ultimately what we saw with OTL's Inca civil war. And that's without getting into the Inca's penchant for playing with demography(see: ethnic cleansing, deportations, settler colonies, othering of non-conformance, etc.). We saw an impressive degree of homogenization for what was ultimately what, 80 years? We arguably saw something akin to the Mandate of Heaven arise in the Andes in the timespan the Inca existed and it's a concept that I think would only be further reinforced with even a mediocre attempt to repair the realm after the civil war + the rampant pandemics.
My take is that a scenario where the Inca avoid early conflict with Europeans their first wars are in the late 16th or early 17th century, they're going to get the Burmese treatment. Lose control over their ports, ultimately getting humiliated militarily, and being turned into a tributary that's paying their dues in large amounts of bullion and as a captive market now that their demography has rebounded somewhat. Truly an Emperor has no clothes moment, and I'd expect the Inca's trajectory to mirror something akin to a much less populous Japan in mentality while getting the 19th century China experience. Flirting with anti-imperialism and ideologically convenient ideologies, Emperor worship, and an obsession with restoring their own sense of dignity while simultaneously being plundered economically, militarily disregarded as any sort of threat, and seen as liable to be influenced and extorted by outside powers with ease.
On the other hand an early pants down moment for the Inca will alter the trajectory of their rebuilding after the civil war and leave them more exposed early on which is likewise more dangerous and going to leave them prone to more 'checks' by conquistadors et al while simultaneously leaving them as a competitive latecomer to the gunpowder empire club(IMO). They've got enough wealth, demography, control, and inertia behind them that I think they'd stabilize and not be in immediate danger of European aggression until the the late 18th/early 19th century akin to the rest of the world's notable states that dodged early imperialism. But with an already established tradition/glorification of 'modernization'/adopting the knowledge of others which they can(and does) harken back to the pre-contact Inca Empire and their adaptations to the different peoples and their knowledge that they in turn used to build their empire. I don't think the Inca would be as exposed or as vulnerable as the early 16th century ever again due to sheer need to Never Again any such incident.
Internally I'd expect the Inca to continue to homogenize demographically the longer that their realm lasts, and to follow a trajectory similar to China in that even the people that aren't strictly Quechuas, sun worshippers, or even politically aligned with the Inca ruler to still see value and legitimacy in the Sapa Inca, his state apparatus, the Quechua language, and the resource management the state provides. The political dynamics of this state would be up in the air of course, but assuming OTL's civil war still goes down then the asses of the Inca aristocracy are exposed and are liable to be disfavored compared to the Inca bureaucracy, the thing actually keeping the whole state running. This is why I lean heavily into parallels with China politically and Japan ideologically. The Inca are a hopscotch away from kneecapping the power of regional lords and atomizing political power to the village level; to a degree this was already true but putting most of the reigns regarding regional management in the hands of bureaucrats instead of aristocrats isn't far removed from what happened OTL. Really the biggest leap is distancing the bureaucracy from the aristocracy as a source of manpower for it. So long as the two are entwined the Sapa Inca is vulnerable to their influence. And I'm sure that the rulers of the Inca will be painfully aware of this with the benefit of hindsight after the civil war. Who were Huascar's backers? Where was their power center? If the Inca already stratify their society such that they can train dedicated metalworkers/weavers/etc. then I've no doubt that a dedicated class of bureaucrats that extends past quipu counters/weavers could and in time would arise.
I'd also expect a shift in interest to the seas, building off of both European contact/trade and the legends of Tupac Yupanqui. Growth in coastal cities would be marred by the Inca being unable to control these cities to the same totalitarian degree they control their mountain cities, but would still boom. Routes that transport silver and other metals, textiles, dried foods, building materials, and quinine for foreign trade would be established akin to the Royal Inca Road. The above would be the Inca's major exports, while in turn Europeans would trade in what we all expect; OTL's major notable goods from the Colombian exchange at first alongside weapons and armor, but I think trade would find a few dedicated niches unlike in China that found little interest in trade with Europeans. Off the top of my head, ships and in the longterm, lumber, would be a big one. I sincerely doubt the Inca will close inwards or disregard the rest of the world. Luxury goods from the rest of the world would be another; trading Chinese porcelain for Inca silver would likely be enormously profitable for the Portuguese. Artisan goods from Europe would likely see a steady trade as well, from clocks to wine. I'd expect the Inca to in time build up their own local industries but the Europeans will have a good window of time for reliable trade. Though I think what the most reliable trade good would be is ultimately slaves. The Inca are in a manpower crunch, and guess who just specialized in transporting manpower for exploitation?
They did especially when Rome moved the border east the Sassanid were the aggressors very near the core same later with the caliphate but still.
The closest one I can image is a combination of an incompetent emperor/ civil war/ flooding of the river Tambo and more importantly Huaynaputina along with the guarani invasion could make the early 17th century very dangerous
Great points. I agree with you, the Inca's biggest dangers in the longterm outside of foreign military threats are internal mismanagement/incompetence and succession issues, their own geography and climate change, as well as blindside threats. The Inca OTL were blessed by a series of extremely competent if not incredible emperors(IMO) and there's no guarantee that'll continue forever. If anything they'd be due a reality check sooner than later about the downsides of absolute monarchy when the absolute monarch is incompetent. A centralized bureaucracy can only do so much if the Sapa Inca is an arch-conservative or more interested in vices than rulership. None of these are issues that can't be overcome, but these issues provide windows of vulnerability where foreign interlopers could exploit Inca weakness, for sure.
I think another point of weakness for the Inca will be the industrial revolution. Even at its most competent and with excellent rulers, navigating this time period won't be easy. The Inca punched above their weight OTL because they already practice more productive forms of agriculture than comparable practices at the time. One obvious example would be the exploitation of guano. Once other states can produce cheap food on better terrain at an industrial scale or worse, the Haber-Bosch process is discovered, they'll lose a major source of exports and while they stand to benefit from these advancements themselves the Inca's comparative advantage will diminish significantly.
And this is only one example. Unless they have hegemony or outright rule over Colombia, their access to good coal is limited and in turn their ability to mass produce steel will also be hampered. The resources are there for most everything they'd need for the first few rounds of the industrial revolution, but they're not in proximity to each other, easily accessible via water transport, or liable to be making significant innovations of their own by virtue of scarcity and failing to achieve profitable economies of scale. I'd expect something akin to Italian industrialization at worst where they're at the mercy of coal imports, and French industrialization at best. They won't be Britain or America, that's for sure. Though they're going to absolutely love the railroad.
A strong Inca Empire in the 18th century onwards is going to be an expansionist state by virtue of what it doesn't have(IMO)
This already happened in OTL for all the huascarists. Huascar lost the entire civil war due to him hesitating to chase his opponents which led him and his forced getting ambushed and his whole base center Cuzco getting massacred.
Also I do think that it would be good to keep an eye out for all the ethnicities in this territory. There were far beyond just quechuas, and while the inca were very unique in getting together an integrationist policy to unify everyone, it didn’t make the incas any less brutal. As an example is how Atahualpa got himself executed. Pizarro had told atahualpa very clearly after huascar died that if he didn’t send an army to liberate him and kill all the spanish there in cajamarca that he wouldn’t kill atahualpa either. It turns out that the spanish heard from their translator that this was exactly what Atahualpa was planning, so a sham trial goes and the votes end up on the side of executing atahualpa. What is interesting is that in actuality there was never this army and that atahualpa had never thought of sending this. So then why did this all happen? Because of the translator Felipillo. He was the one who was brought from northern peru to panama, learned spanish and then translated from quechua to spanish for the pizarrists. The problem is, he knew quechua but he was not a quechua…. But a tallan. And the tallan just so had happened to have their whole group destroyed by atahualpa, so it makes sense that this was felipillo’s answer and revenge to what happened to his people.
I actually wonder in this case if other conquistadores would have had the capability of perhaps not taking the entire inca with them to town, but some angry ethnicities that didn’t like the inca, or a portion of the panacas who didn’t like the inca (a lot of internal conflicts between the inca always boil down to panaca disputes after all). Perhaps this is more feasible on parts that are more self insulating from easy invasions, case in point Lima would be horrendous as OTL manco inca had the city surrounded on 4 sides. However the separation between the capital in cuzco and in quito are quite the one that lead to the civil war….
Wouldn't European presence in South America in general alert them of a potential danger?
I don't doubt the Europeans are going to take the continued existence of the Inca Empire very lightly forever, but I think it's a factor to consider how much time they take to kbow for certain there's silver or gold in their territories and if they currently have the power projection to actually do it without relying on really bad timing for the Incas.
I think it's what the others mean by seeing if the Incas play their cards right. I don't see why not the Inca Empire wouldn't trade with Spain while trading with the Portuguese (specifically if Spain doesn't invade at all).
The Incas are certainly in a position where they are going to be exploited, by Portugal, Spain and whatever power manages to get a piece of the pie, but would they be conquered after a century or so?
I mean, perhaps Spain could try an invasion at a later date and still fail even with technological superiority. That depends when that invasion might happen to fully be sure of the Inca Empire's survival or destruction, but it could happen.
Most certainly. If the clock didn't start ticking before, then after the Industrial Revolution is a matter of time before industrial powers take control of the region one way or another. Though, in this case, the Colonial Period of those territories would probably look more like it was in India than what happened in OTL.
I'm not sure if they'd be capable of maintaining control over Colombia. The Spanish were only a feel years away of adding these territories to their Colonial Empire when they took over the Inca Empire and, while they most certainly would have the number superiority over the Spanish colonists in Colombia, what are the incentives for such expansion? By the time of the Industrial Revolution, where they might get the sense that they'll need the coal, it may be already too late to take over Colombia.
Agreed on the iron, it's relatively easy access and not all that far from notable population centers. Then on the coal, the coal is of decent quality, that actually surprised me. I was misinformed on that, thank you for correcting me. I did some more digging on the Peruvian coal industry. I can cosign on what you said about low coal moisture, though there are some caveats based on my findings on Peruvian coal. Alto Chicama is Peru's largest coal reserve by far and has a medium to high sulfur content(1.8-3.5%). Not terrible, not high quality either, but would result in lower quality/more frail steel on average from what I'm reading(I'm no metallurgist or chemist). There's also accessibility concerns, even accounting for Inca ingenuity; it's not particularly close to population centers and is isolated even by Andean standards. Nothing insurmountable, the state of West Virginia was a thing after all though the elevations we're talking about aren't really comparable. I imagine such a deposit would be a late exploitation after initial industrialization efforts would source from Oyon or Ancash at first. But your info does have me feeling a bit better about Inca industrial potential. Unless they're striving to compete with other world leaders in steel production they should have enough to work with, even if it'll never truly be cheap steel.
I agree with your analysis that the best wedge foreign powers will have with minority groups are the recently conquered; the Inca made mortal enemies out of the cultures they subsumed and tried to annihilate, and it's in no way surprising that those in the middle of that process leapt at the chance to join with the Spanish. It's also the easiest angle for chipping off parts of the Inca's periphery lands with minimal resources. Your examples do a good job of highlighting how exploiting these scenarios got the Spanish an enormous amount of bang for buck. I still think that the longterm trajectory for most people in the Andes and the west coast of South America is Quechification, but that's given time that the Inca may not have or that the Europeans won't give them if they smell blood in the water. There's a window of opportunity for ex. the Chimu to be carved out of the Inca as a protectorate in an early contact scenario IMO which would be absolutely disastrous for keeping the Inca realm together and not split north and south. Which is in and of itself another danger scenario; propping up pretenders and claimants who cede privileges and lands to Europeans in exchange for their military support. Highlighting the separation between Quito and Cuzco is dead on; that's an angle that can be played and exacerbated without reform or a competent leader at the helm. And the Quito half of the empire is both closer to OTL's European presence as well as more liable to have a mix of Quechua settlers and recently conquered peoples such as the Tallan. The Inca would need more time to cook in order to get their demography in the area sorted out. Other points of weakness are Chile south of the Atacama,
Not necessarily in the timespan needed to change the direction of the ship. Being aware of colonial outposts in ex. Valparaiso, Cartagena, or Bahia is one thing. Being aware of Mexico City is another. Being aware of the full scope of the conquest of Mexico is yet another layer. And then the degree to which Europeans can exert military power overseas is in and of itself another hurdle that might only ever be understood with direct experience. And Europeans to some degree didn't share info lightly with the local people. Given time, of course they'd become aware of these things. But it's not going to be an immediate sense of danger; the Inca won't understand that the Sword of Damocles is hovering over their head until it swings or they realize they have to look up.
I agree with you. The Spanish don't have a sixth sense that Potosi is out there waiting and unexploited. And they're also not going to be omniscient on the qualities and capabilities of the Inca militarily either. Strong shows of force and manpower could be all that's needed to dissuade them from trying anything for the first century of contact, especially if they're getting what they want out of the Inca(bullion) without needing to get their hands all that dirty. It's effectively what Atahualpa tried at Cajamarca, but the Spanish were ballsy, bet the farm, and came out of it with jackpot. I don't think every conquistador is going to be a Pizarro.
On trade, yeah they'd trade with the Spanish unless first contact establishes immediate hostilities(IMO). They'll certainly play the various powers off each other given the opportunity, the Inca aren't strangers to diplomacy, leverage, and deception. Assuming they survive long enough to have the opportunity, this will give them leverage and breathing room. Exploitation might not ever be on the table, potentially. I'd assume conquest wouldn't be on the table in a scenario where the Inca look strong enough to not mess with because fielding the necessary resources needed for a European state to shoot their shot would require time and growth in a local powerbase from which to source, supply, and direct such an invasion. If their estimates are that they need an army of ex. 10k+, that'd set back an invasion attempt decades. But that's assuming conquest is on the table in a scenario where the Inca come off as lambs ready for slaughter.
I'd say that if you ran the simulation 10 times, most Spanish attempts fail, even if they show up in the middle of the civil war because the reception the Spanish would receive would be drastically different. I've beaten the drum that their timing was impeccable a bunch on this site, my post history should have some decent breakdowns if you're curious on the details/arguments. With the disclaimer that I only focus on the Spanish failure scenarios and not the mixed bag scenarios as these posts tended to be me getting belligerent after responding to a bunch of know-nothings, then writing out the skeleton of a failed Spanish invasion TL.
Agreed. I think how the industrial revolution arises would look a lot different without New World bullion supercharging the amount of liquid and semi-liquid assets and banking advancements Europe made in the leadup to it, but the major players/epicenters are likely to stay the same. The Inca are too removed from the epicenter of it to truly lead it, though I think there's decent odds that an Inca Empire that stays strong until then could survive it and even be a secondary participant in the industrialization/colonialism/imperialism triangle. My take is that given that the Inca are stable and to some degree powerful as the world begins to rapidly change, they'll mirror European overseas expansionism and trade (poorly at first) due to being in a similar situation where there is a lot they don't have. Being at the mercy of foreign ships seems like something the Inca would become allergic to after 200 or so years of seeing the negatives of it.
I think Colombia is something that they would have to conquer after first contact from a European power if they want it; it's not something they'll be able to beat the Europeans to. I also think there's decent possibilities of this occurring if the Spanish show weakness akin to OTL and are being pulled in multiple directions. Historically the first colonizers were the ones to fall into an ossified decline as other powers learned from them and then did exploitation better and even more brutally. Most famously how the British and French turned the Caribbean into a mint built out of slave labor off of tiny islands while the Spanish struggled to match that with the cumulative revenues of large chunks of their empire. Plenty of opportunity later on IMO.
Fair enough. I guess it would take quite a while for the Incas to grasp this.
Talking about failure of conquest scenarios got me curious to ask you this. Do you think in a timeline where Spain is a non-factor and the French were to be the ones in their place (stablished in the Carribean and recently conquered Mexico), would they be more cautious in general and thus not as daring as Spain was OTL? Asking for a timeline that lives rent free on my mind since last year.
I see myself a bit skeptical of this, if only because of the form South American countries evolved to be in OTL... But then again, none of those countries were the results of an independent, not conquered Native American country, so I don't know.
Hmmm. That's fair, but I still don't see why would they want it so much to begin with. The Europeans are bound to put a resistence as fierce as the ethnicities that hate the Incas, if not fiercer. Plus, I'm not even sure if the change in government (independent Colombia, perhaps) would even compute quick enough before the newly independent state consolidates. It would be a very risky endeavor.
yeah i remember passing by ica and the steel plants given how ica is also a major producer of iron, but i think ica and other iron mines would have been in use long before industralization if the inca went modernization and if they are smart to use the many recourses of peru alone rather importing them
This is an oversimplification of Cajamarca. "White man interesting" was not the only factor behind Atahualpa's decision to meet Pizarro. The civil war resulted in many reports of conquistadores brutalizing nearby natives getting overlooked, something that would be reviewed in peacetime and result in much more suspicion. The initial wave of envoys arrived when Pizarro's party was extremely disorganized, resulting in the Incas getting an impression that the Spanish expedition wasn't even a combat party, an obviously underestimation of Spanish capabilities. Atahualpa and his army were also flushed with victory from sieging Cuzco and were confident that they could betray the Spaniards first (which Atahualpa himself admitted post-capture).
@EMT said it earlier, replay Cajamarca ten times, and Pizarro fails most of those times. Successive conquistadors like Diego de Almagro will not find the Sapa Inca as unprepared as Atahualpa was against Pizarro.
At the same time, an independent Inca have significant advantages. They would be demanding less of their subjects compared to the Spanish (the Inca established an advanced bureaucracy considering seasons and local circumstance when requesting the mit'a from conquered regions compared to the constant Spanish demand of 1/7th of the entire population 365 days a year often sent to distant mines). I must say I also disagree that the Inca pre-conquest were trying to erase cultures too, although they are very likely to do that if they modernize and form a modern nation-state (like every other nation during the 17th and 18th century). Like the Spanish, what they wanted the most out of conquered ethnicities was tribute and economic value, primarily in the form of manpower and labor.
The Inca religion was also much more tolerant than Spanish Christianity, with the only substantial requirement be that existing deities pay lip service acknowledging the deities of Cusco as supreme beings of the pantheon, with everyday religious practices remaining unchanged. Of course, they would also send out missionary-equivalents to evangelize and appropriate the local religions for their own uses, but those did not mandate forced conversion and had a much more gradual and localized process of appropriation than Christian missions and missionaries.
So yes, the Inca don't have as big of a stick as the Spanish, but they have a much better carrot in the short term with which to retain unity. The other part is that the defeat Huascar and allies, not to mention the deaths from diseases, suffered means that the opposition lack the political capital and manpower to stage another civil war for some time, so uprisings will be more local for a decent time period.
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So, assuming that certain ethnicities ally with the Spanish and fall under their sphere of influence like previously said by some, is it farfetched to speculate that these natives might invite the Inca back if they feel like their Spanish overlords are harsher?
TBH I think anyone under the Inca system that escapes it is liable to remain cynical about the Inca and lean into Spain's embrace unless they start behaving like cartoon villains. I think the Inca's biggest allure would actually be for natives that have never been ruled by the Inca being crushed by the Spanish throughout the Caribbean rim and Mexico. By being the exception to the rule and having a far more humane system of labor distribution, the Inca not only look good by comparison, they also have legitimacy that predates the Columbian exchange. Yes, they're not the heirs of Moctezuma by any means, but they are
1) An empire of native peoples that survived or beat the Europeans
2) In theory capable of power projection outside of their borders
3) Committed integrationists who won't judge these people for their skin color or faith
4) Ideologically appealing as figures of resistance, legitimacy, and likely to serve as a destination for political exiles
Not to underestimate the number of native allies the Spanish acquired, but in time those alliances would fade from living memory and the exploitation, discrimination, and systemic impoverishment would pick up steam. The grass is always greener on the other side, and short of the Inca being cartoonishly incompetent(not out of the realm of possibility) they're likely to attract the interest of those dissatisfied with the Spanish system but firmly under its grip. Be it caste, racial or religious discrimination, w/e.
Which isn't to say that these peoples given opportunity and success would petition for annexation into the Inca Empire. But I'd absolutely expect the Inca to be covertly or overtly supportive of native uprisings in the Spanish Empire, source weapons and organization to them, and be very pleased with themselves if they manage to establish protectorates in parts of the former Spanish Empire by virtue of not being the Spanish and being available to help at the right times and places. Which they would be, compared to any other European power that might not be able to respond with the same quickness due to geographic limitations(see: The Tupac Amaru II rebellion) or due to ideological distaste for the aims or causes these uprisings foster(see: Haiti). The Inca aren't going to become American Native Pan-Nationalists by any means. They've got the Mapuche, the Guarani, and who knows how many other groups that could arise to fight with. But I'm confident that it's an image that they'd happily foster to other groups not in immediate conflict with them. Which is why I think anti-Inca separatists are liable to stay that way bar Spanish tomfoolery to the highest degree.
This is my own bias speaking, but from my POV French seem to have developed a sense of exceptionalism that other European countries don't quite have or believe in to anywhere near the same degree bar the British post-18th century, except my impression is that this goes back even further all the way to the Charlemagne. This take might only be possible with the benefit of hindsight, but if anything I'd expect the French to be more deranged in grandeur than the Spanish if they were the ones to topple the Aztec Empire and see it as proof positive of the power of god and anime being on their side.
I'd say don't take societies forged around exploitation for the sake of a mother country that explicitly fostered trade barriers between its colonies, fostered a race-based caste system, and actively discouraged local industries in favor of raw resource extraction as in any way representative of the potential the Inca state has. None of these things were ultimately hard barriers to a more prosperous society developing, especially post-independence, but it certainly did not help.
I think it's straightforward why they'd want it, in the same way it's straightforward why Peter the Great wanted an outlet to the Baltic Sea. Colombia is the best forward base for invading the Inca, blocks the Inca from having a port on the Caribbean/Atlantic, and has plenty of wealth and resources to justify it's conquest and integration. Forget the coal, there's plenty of geostrategic reasons for wanting it once the Inca become more aware of the wider world. Similar arguments can be made for the Rio de La Plata basin IMO once it stops being the land of pampas and wandering tribesmen, and the Inca realize the value of all these treeless but well-irrigated grasslands. To an extent the Inca will perpetually suffer from Russia syndrome; the borders are never going to be quite good enough to leave them feeling secure. And in turn I'd expect them to fantasize about their 'natural borders' in the same way the British consolidated the British isles, the French fought for centuries for a border on the Rhine, the Russians to get better sea access, the Chinese to secure their nomad frontiers, the Egyptians to control the other side of the Sinai desert, etc. Nevermind that should they achieve these borders, they'll want more and more and more in the same way all these states were never quite satisfied with their own geostrategic positions. Nature of the beast.