TLIAW: Who Governs?
- Thread starter Nevran
- Start date
So Elisabeth Edward’s becomes a popular politician even before her husband in this timeline?
I love how you switched it up and had the liberal party fall apart instead of the Progressive Conservative Party very interesting.
Ah! THE GREAT LIST HAS COME!
The Scottish list is a list of very smart choices for the role of First Minister (or the equivalent thereof) though it did surprise me that there was in fact a second Alex Ferguson who was not involved in football so I've learnt something new today in that respect!
First Secretary of Wales is obviously where my own interests would lie geographically. Reading up on Wyn Jones was interesting and it's curious to see that his attempts to form a Conservative coalition were both more successful for the party and also didn't help him one bit. While I'm sure I would have extremely opinionated views ITTL I have to say that there are least no big "BLOODY HELL" sirens going off reading the list. Except I'm curious did anything in particular happen to Alun Michael to require his removal from the position, given that he's currently active right now? Reading up on Dougherty and reading up on what happened in 2021 to make him retreat is...interesting? Curious to see if Plaid being in power means that there'll be more of a push for Welsh Independence at the time the timeline finished up.
Okay this was the interesting one for me. Kennedy and Bentsen winning makes sense and it is very ironic that he would basically just take Carter's place in this timeline (Hlaf expected Carter to primary him!) Laxalt and Lott sound like the world's most painful laxative and thank god they didn't win. Harris Wofford is a really fascinating figure to me and I think it makes total sense that he'd be VP here. 2004 sounds like a goddamn nightmare election looking at the sheer amount of parties running and seeing Paul's running mate definitely raised some eyebrows. Have to give you credit, it's one of the more unique lists I've seen and I really dig it!
I'm not all that versed in French politics but no Mitterand seems pretty bloody significant to me! Mauroy seems an interesting figure to replace him as the big socialist party man and seems to lack....well, all of the scandals. Also gave me a little laugh to see that even in this timeline Le Pen sneaks into the top two primary again! Interesting to me that Andrew Young started as a Vice-President and then clearly did so well he got the top job, that's fun.
Only thing to say on Germany is holy shit, the Greens got in in 2023? That's insane!
A big change right away is Trudeau not making his grand return, so that's significant! Same for Mulroney crashing out as just a one term weakling. Incidentally, I have to wonder just what the hell Axworthy did so badly that the Liberals basically burnt itself to a crisp throughout the nineties. Like OTL's Progressive Conservatives went poorly too but TWENTY THREE YEARS?! Fuck me! For that matter, why on earth did Richardson and Wilson retire from their roles? (I don't say this in a "ANSWER THIS QUESTION AT ONCE!!" fashion, I think it's super interesting!). I'm really interested that there was clearly some merger or alteration with the NDP at some point, it's definitely unique and I do like the touch that there was clearly a faction of Liberals opposed to this change.
Given that there was no big crisis, I assume Whitlam got a little closer to enacting some of his grand plans. Never heard of Andrew Peacock before but reading about him is...uh, certainly an experience? Man to be a fly on the wall for how Bill Hayden manage to get back into the Labour leadership for Peacock's third election. I was mildly curious about what the hell Gareth Evans could have done to make another 'x' amount of years of the Liberals seem like a smart choice but then I read up about him and honestly it tracks.
In short, excellent stuff to read about! Love it!
The Scottish list is a list of very smart choices for the role of First Minister (or the equivalent thereof) though it did surprise me that there was in fact a second Alex Ferguson who was not involved in football so I've learnt something new today in that respect!
First Secretary of Wales is obviously where my own interests would lie geographically. Reading up on Wyn Jones was interesting and it's curious to see that his attempts to form a Conservative coalition were both more successful for the party and also didn't help him one bit. While I'm sure I would have extremely opinionated views ITTL I have to say that there are least no big "BLOODY HELL" sirens going off reading the list. Except I'm curious did anything in particular happen to Alun Michael to require his removal from the position, given that he's currently active right now? Reading up on Dougherty and reading up on what happened in 2021 to make him retreat is...interesting? Curious to see if Plaid being in power means that there'll be more of a push for Welsh Independence at the time the timeline finished up.
Okay this was the interesting one for me. Kennedy and Bentsen winning makes sense and it is very ironic that he would basically just take Carter's place in this timeline (Hlaf expected Carter to primary him!) Laxalt and Lott sound like the world's most painful laxative and thank god they didn't win. Harris Wofford is a really fascinating figure to me and I think it makes total sense that he'd be VP here. 2004 sounds like a goddamn nightmare election looking at the sheer amount of parties running and seeing Paul's running mate definitely raised some eyebrows. Have to give you credit, it's one of the more unique lists I've seen and I really dig it!
I'm not all that versed in French politics but no Mitterand seems pretty bloody significant to me! Mauroy seems an interesting figure to replace him as the big socialist party man and seems to lack....well, all of the scandals. Also gave me a little laugh to see that even in this timeline Le Pen sneaks into the top two primary again! Interesting to me that Andrew Young started as a Vice-President and then clearly did so well he got the top job, that's fun.
Only thing to say on Germany is holy shit, the Greens got in in 2023? That's insane!
A big change right away is Trudeau not making his grand return, so that's significant! Same for Mulroney crashing out as just a one term weakling. Incidentally, I have to wonder just what the hell Axworthy did so badly that the Liberals basically burnt itself to a crisp throughout the nineties. Like OTL's Progressive Conservatives went poorly too but TWENTY THREE YEARS?! Fuck me! For that matter, why on earth did Richardson and Wilson retire from their roles? (I don't say this in a "ANSWER THIS QUESTION AT ONCE!!" fashion, I think it's super interesting!). I'm really interested that there was clearly some merger or alteration with the NDP at some point, it's definitely unique and I do like the touch that there was clearly a faction of Liberals opposed to this change.
Given that there was no big crisis, I assume Whitlam got a little closer to enacting some of his grand plans. Never heard of Andrew Peacock before but reading about him is...uh, certainly an experience? Man to be a fly on the wall for how Bill Hayden manage to get back into the Labour leadership for Peacock's third election. I was mildly curious about what the hell Gareth Evans could have done to make another 'x' amount of years of the Liberals seem like a smart choice but then I read up about him and honestly it tracks.
In short, excellent stuff to read about! Love it!
Europe is a lot more politically fragmented in TTL, with far-left (France), hard-right (Spain), social democratic (UK) and green (Germany) leading some of the big nations. Espionza was supposed to show that fragmentation, and that Europe isn't free of the same political trends which are hitting it OTL.
She does yes. Her career is a bit more like Hillary's, she works in the Young Administration, rising to become an Assistant AG, and is picked to run for Senate in 1996, which she wins against Jesse Helms. John Edwards is Governor of NC for two four non-consecutive year terms (2001-2005) (2013-2017).
Fergie would definitely be a novel Scottish First Secretary
Thank you re Wales as well. I wanted to try and figure out what no Lib Dems would mean for the country (and like Scotland) sort of gives the nationalists a one up and a more moderate Tory bench.
Alun Michael was sort of a stopgap for the Welsh Labour Party, after Kinnock’s disastrous leadership. Basically, he goes from interim to full leader and despite a convincing victory in ‘11 struggles with a lot of same issues his OTL leadership does. He jumps before he’s pushed in ’14.
Ah well, I’d imagine the reasons behind his faux-paux would be the reason for his resignation more than the actual scandal, but I’m sure there would be a similar scandal which came from it which hits Doughty around the same time.
PC’s first agenda item is to change the First Secretary title to First Minister and get more powers from a friendlier government as there is not a majority for Welsh Independence in the Assembly. I’d imagine 2027 would see a more explicit campaign of “give us a majority government = we will give you a referendum”
If you don’t cringe at, at least some of, America’s leaders, then there’s something not right.
1980 (and 1984) are a lot closer ITTL than in OTL, as there’s better candidates and better positions. Kennedy gets healthcare over the line, no Iranian embassy siege (a multi-year civil war is worse overall, but better for America than a hostile regime).
Laxalt & Lott does sound like an evil law firm from the Simpsons, I will admit.
Oh yeah 2004 is cursed. The establishment, DLC star and neo-liberal moderate Howard Dean (different reputation ITL), the batty Ron Paul, the well-respected but doomed from the start Second Lady and then Ralph Nader makes it something to look back on in dread.
It's very similar to @Bésikly Estaing TL on the wikibox thread, with a longer Giscard D’Estaing presidency and then Mauroy after, but we do go our different ways after 2002. Mauroy is one of the big figures of modern day politics (like Rau, Young and Howe are ITL).
Needless to say, Bayrou wipes the floor with Len Pen, even with allegations of a misuse of government funds and investigators knocking on his door.
A bit more of a centrist green party, serving in multiple government coalitions from its inception and never losing seats after reunification, keeps the momentum going all the way to 2023. And the Gro-Ko between 2019-2023 is quite unpopular. And it somehow ends up with CDU/CSU back in charge again (two year rotation of the Chancellorship is part of the agreement).
EDIT: The minority was supposed to be in 1996, not 1994.
Yes, Canada is a bit of weird one. I sort of wrote myself in a corner with it in the TL, but just powered through it to try and get it to work. Whistle-stop tour ahead, and it’s pretty loose and fast.
So, the jist is, Mulroney gets Meech Lake through earlier with Quebec City Accords, which neutralizes the Parti Québécois movement and keeps a lot of seats open for the PC’s.
Lloyd Axworthy governs as the economy slows down, doesn’t have the charisma of his contemporaries or predecessors and is faced with the same pressures of Western alienation that Trudeau faced.
The NDP ride the wave of alienation and keep a lot of their seats to the East, PC comfortable in Quebec and the selection of Michael Wilson wins a lot of moderate and tax cutters.
It’s not a Mulroney-esque landslide, but it’s a solid majority. Tax-cutting, free trade, all the staples follow. He wins a tight majority in 1996 (Chrétien has got a lot of charisma compared to Wilson) and he’s weakened by it. What takes Wilson out though is Western alienation and the rise of right-wing splinters. He's replaced by Lee Richardson, in a ‘quiet coup’ by his Cabinet. Richardson’s though is quite moderate and while he's a decent man, doesn’t make the expected inroads in the West that was hoped.
It pisses off Quebec, who back native son Chrétien, to knock the PC’s down to a minority in the election Richardson called to get a mandate (see Mulroney 1988 & May 2017) for the earlier iteration of TATP. He negotiates with free-trade friendly Liberals to push this through but loses steam and resigns in February 1999, thinking of ending his career on a high.
Replacing him is Mike Harris, who takes the Common-Sense Revolution national, and keeps winning. ’00 and ’04 are won with Liberal-NDP infighting, vote splitting and the deficit reducing and the economy growing. Canada is shielded from the Great Recession (and Paul’s disastrous response to it) due to the boom in oil prices (and collapse in American energy markets from Venezeula) which flushes Canada with a lot of cash, enough to keep the welfare state floating, hence another victory in ‘08. The united LD's expected to win in 08, and its a big shock when they don't (as you'd and they'd expect).
Harris last term is pretty horrible. He seems aloof on the job, jetting off around the globe, and the Common Sense Revolution is declared "dead" by many of his own party allies. He does little to vet a successor and hangs on as long as possible (and to outlast Trudeau as the longest serving post-war PM). When he does leave it falls to Bernier who, well, it’s a 1984 landslide against him.
Whitlam gets his chance (Kerr’s alcoholism catches up with him before the crisis and he resigns after a drunken speech) to stay in power and does a lot of good for Australia. He does piss people off though, hence the 3 term Peacock premiership after.
Glad to have got you reading about Peacock (really odd sentence out of context but ey oh).
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There's not a "fixed" election date, especially when you start dealing with minority governments in Europe (and Canada), so it varies.
In the UK/Scotland/Wales, an election is usually every 4 years, 5 years if the government is politically (and, by MPs, arithmetically) stable but electorally unpopular, 2/3 years if the government is politically unstable but popular.
In the context of this TL 1983 and 1994 are followed by an election as Hattersley is defeated by a VONC and Jay had only one seat more than the Tories.
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