The Other Countries in a Cuban-Missile War Victory

Beatriz

Gone Fishin'
There are plenty of threads about the role of the US and its postwar society in a Cuban Missile War “Victory” and its status as basically hyperpower with no real possible competition and nuclear monopoly and all that, but there is relatively little discussion of how other countries would behave .

there is (theoretically) room for regional powers like India or whoever to advance their own interests either through lobbying, being a destination for American investment [1] /tourism etc., participating in American-led interventions, or even petitioning for annexation

Regional unions to coordinate commerce/defense might actually be something the US sets up like a LATO, AfTO and so forth

@Jonathan Edelstein @Indicus

[1] In the long run, American companies will be willing to outsource and invest in places with cheaper labor
 
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There are plenty of threads about the role of the US and its postwar society in a Cuban Missile War “Victory” and its status as basically hyperpower with no real possible competition and nuclear monopoly and all that, but there is relatively little discussion of how other countries would behave .

“behave or get nuked” would be a rule going forwards, but there is (theoretically) room for regional powers like India or whoever to advance their own interests either through lobbying, being a destination for American investment [1] /tourism etc., participating in American-led interventions, or even petitioning for annexation

Regional unions to coordinate commerce/defense might actually be something the US sets up like a LATO, AfTO and so forth

@Jonathan Edelstein @Indicus

[1] In the long run, American companies will be willing to outsource and invest in places with cheaper labor
Why would the U.S. start nuking everyone? The U.S. didn't nuke anyone (except for Japan but that was to test the atomic bomb) when they had a nuclear monopoly (early Cold War) why would they do this when they can just support pro-American figures?
 
There are plenty of threads about the role of the US and its postwar society in a Cuban Missile War “Victory” and its status as basically hyperpower with no real possible competition and nuclear monopoly and all that, but there is relatively little discussion of how other countries would behave .

there is (theoretically) room for regional powers like India or whoever to advance their own interests either through lobbying, being a destination for American investment [1] /tourism etc., participating in American-led interventions, or even petitioning for annexation

Regional unions to coordinate commerce/defense might actually be something the US sets up like a LATO, AfTO and so forth

@Jonathan Edelstein @Indicus

[1] In the long run, American companies will be willing to outsource and invest in places with cheaper labor
Also when you say "The U.S. wins in the Cuban Missile Crisis" what do you exactly mean?
 
My guess is:

-American mainland only somewhat destroyed (1-2 cities destroyed, but civilization can continue on as normal)
-Soviets heavily destroyed, suffering military collapse
I don't really see that happening but if this did happen the U.S. might intervene/nuke in the remaining communists places in the world (China, Indochina...) but I don't think the U.S. would start to threaten nuclear oblivion as after seeing what happened to Europe...
 
I don't really see that happening but if this did happen the U.S. might intervene/nuke in the remaining communists places in the world (China, Indochina...) but I don't think the U.S. would start to threaten nuclear oblivion as after seeing what happened to Europe...
As the last remaining Nuclear Power, I think that the US will make sure that no other power will get Nukes.
 
As the last remaining Nuclear Power, I think that the US will make sure that no other power will get Nukes.
That is likely, but I don't think that they would do this by nuking someone who tries to do so, I think that they would just organize a coup against that government (except for China)
 
Also when you say "The U.S. wins in the Cuban Missile Crisis" what do you exactly mean?
Generally put the strategic balance in the Cuban Missile Crisis favored the US to an incredible degree

There were 6-8 missiles on Cuba and a few bombers, but apart from that the Soviets only had about 40 ICBMs, that could only be held in readiness for a brief period and actually were not ready in the key parts of the Crisis OTL, submarines which at least OTL were all tracked and 160 strategic bombers which were heavily outnumbered by US/Canadian defending fighters and not all ready. The US had 1600 bombers, 180 ICBMs, 7 nuclear submarines that were not tracked and ~90 shorter ranged missiles in Europe that could still hit the USSR. Both sides had a lot of really short ranged nukes in Europe that could not hit each others mainland but would make Europe a mess

Most estimates are that if the USSR attacks first the US gets around 20-50 hits with nuclear weapons, which sounds really bad, but given the likely suboptimal distribution not enough to destroy the US as a country, more like make the US the 1945 USSR, while the US counterattacks wipe out the USSR and the Warsaw Pact save Hungary (and probably China, it wasn't officially on the new targeting list but General Powers really wanted to use the old list which did include China). Europe is worked over by both sides

If the US attacks first, then the Soviets probably don't get more than a handful of their long ranged weapons off, US almost untouched, USSR and Warsaw Pact (and probably China) gone. Europe is still wrecked

The thing is given the tensions and main flash points were in the Western Hemisphere, and the fact that General Powers and Admiral Anderson had authority left over from Eisenhower to launch if they thought a nuclear attack was in progress (not changed by JFK until after the crisis was over), most of the typical PODs, assuming they act in character, would probably see the US be the one to launch a full strike first
That is likely, but I don't think that they would do this by nuking someone who tries to do so, I think that they would just organize a coup against that government (except for China)
And if the coup fails? The first country likely to challenge things is India and they are big with a stable government, a coup is unlikely to work in the extreme
 
Too be honest, I imagine the US would be forced to turn inward for a bit. Even if two dozen cities are hit, we are likely talking major population centers, New York, Los Angelos, Chicago, Houston, Miami, San Antonio... That's tens of millions of people dead, millions more injured and suffering the effects of fallout, flash blindness, lingering effects of radiation. Industrial capacity of these places needs to be replaced. A lot of food and crops will need to be destroyed, rationing would probably need to be introduced. Not to mention much of its global military capacity would have been severely reduced, navies destroyed, tens if not hundreds of thousands of soldiers dead across Europe and Asia. The loss of global trade from Asia and Europe would mess with it's economy.

The US would be able to rebuild, but its going to be in a very sorry state and is going to have to go through a serious period of readjustment and there will be a demand to focus on the domestic front for quite a while. I'd honestly think the US would probably return into isolation, its going take a long time to fix up what was lost.
 
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Beatriz

Gone Fishin'
honestly I am too pessimistic about human nature
B_Munro had written about the AMERIKA series
There was always the option of “do what we say or we nuke you” of course, but in most situations it was a bit of a 50-ton steam hammer for swatting flies: either the threat becomes degraded through too much repetition, or you have to carry out regular “examples”, which may bring obedience out of fear, but which will inspire universal hatred, and undermine rule at home:
Also, why not use other incentives besides nuking a country (where cheap labor is .. useful and can produce raw materials for you)?

Also, nuking New Delhi, balkanizing the country and occupying the Balkanized bits is a drain on the treasury. Also domestic opposition unless you’re a dictatorship and even then dictator needs allies…


this as an analogue of Iraq and Afghanistan crossed with For All Time’s Argentina (capital nuked, occupied also) crossed with the Portuguese colonial wars (brutal repression against guerillas etc.)
 
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honestly I am too pessimistic about human nature
I think there would be a bit of a power vacuum for a while. The other thing to consider is that a lot of the US's nuclear arsenal would have been expended or destroyed. I imagine that there would be little political desire to see money being spent on expanding the arsenal, especially since their primary adversary has been destroyed and attention would desperately be needed on the domestic front. Long term you might even see a more pacifistic United States, the country until that point had never really suffered the ravages of major industrial warfare, now it had experience a war of nightmarish proportions. Ironically you might see a greater focus on institutions like government healthcare as there would be a need to treat millions for injuries and cancer.

There is likely a sentiment of "never again" and maybe a push to maintain a nuclear monopoly, but I feel that it would be quite a harrowing experience and a desire to never let such a thing happen again and a push for the reduction of nuclear arms across the world. To be honest its probably something we can barely imagine, such a catastrophic loss of life due to human hands has never been experienced and I cannot imagine the phycological trauma that would emerge for almost everyone involved. There is every chance that the opposite lesson could be learned, but I think the culture of the US would be fundamentally altered forever.

Its not a perfect analogy, but I think of gas weapons in WWI, following their extensive use, there was a desire to keep a limit on them to the point they were barely a factor in WWII, maybe you'd see a general revulsion at such weapons rooted in a deep fear of first hand experience. I'd probably imagine a reduction in the production on nuclear weapons globally, but not so optimistic as to think they'd go away forever.

Regarding other nations, it would be a miserable time. Europe would be a charnel house of nightmares. The population was around 600 million and most of them are going to die. It'd be lucky to have a quarter of that by the end. The USSR was around 200 million and that is probably going to drop to the low millions, it would be a patchwork of warlords, militias and localized communities. Banditry would be common and things would regress massively, likely to pre-industrial levels. You probably wont see any significant polities in this area for a long time.

China would probably be mildly struck by the USSR and be reeling from that. Japan and Korea probably takes a few hits due to its proximity to the USSR and alliance with the US. Korea would probably be heavily impoverished, Japan would be knocked down for a while too.

Part of the world likely untouched include India, Oceania, Africa and South America. You might actually see the US interfering less in these regions as they withdraw inward, so maybe likely a very different South America. I imagine in places like Korea and Japan, the US would be seen extremely negatively, regardless of who shot first. Europe might be slightly different if the US offers aid, but I don't imagine the Stars and Stripes would be welcome in many places. China might be well placed to become a dominant force in Asia, as it would likely managed to absorb what few hits the USSR would throw at them. Unsure how the Communist Party might survive, in such a scenario I imagine it's northern base probably takes a beating, with Beijing likely destroyed. Who knows how that might affect their grip on power in the long run.

India would be untouched, but the collapse of global trade is probably stunting. With Europe and Eurasia a burning wreck, there are bound to impacts of food that would hurt places like India and Pakistan hard. Despite this, I think India is destined for a slow climb into becoming a regional and eventually a global power with its population and industry intact. Who knows what political direction they might take, especially if the US is busy licking it's wounds.

Europe would be a patchwork of minor states. Any major state that managed to survive would be severely weakened and probably forced to adopt draconian measures to keep order. However I imagine their central governments would be unlikely to maintain control over their nations, even if some of its leadership was able to survive. Banditry and warlords would be the most likely scenario across the continent and I doubt any major polity would be rising from Europe for many decades. There would likely be a focus on immediate survival, and regionalist identities would probably spring up.

Places like Oceania would likely be spared, I imagine due to the relatively limited scope of the scope of the Soviet arsenal at this time, the focus would be on Europe and the USA. I imagine places like Australia and New Zealand would be trying to provide aid to the UK, but that would be a drop in the ocean in terms of what was likely needed. They're probably destined to become local hegemons over the Pacific.

Africa would be interesting. Decolonization was well underway by 1962, and I imagine what remained of European colonial structures would utterly collapse with their respective motherlands in turmoil. This hasty withdrawal or overthrow is likely to result in numerous ethnic conflicts however, not to mention disruption from climate events affecting crops, probably casing famine. The African continent is going to look very different, very quickly. South Africa is probably spared, but without the global condemnation of Apartheid, not being possible in this scenario, who knows that direction they will take.
 
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Generally put the strategic balance in the Cuban Missile Crisis favored the US to an incredible degree

There were 6-8 missiles on Cuba and a few bombers, but apart from that the Soviets only had about 40 ICBMs, that could only be held in readiness for a brief period and actually were not ready in the key parts of the Crisis OTL, submarines which at least OTL were all tracked and 160 strategic bombers which were heavily outnumbered by US/Canadian defending fighters and not all ready. The US had 1600 bombers, 180 ICBMs, 7 nuclear submarines that were not tracked and ~90 shorter ranged missiles in Europe that could still hit the USSR. Both sides had a lot of really short ranged nukes in Europe that could not hit each others mainland but would make Europe a mess

Most estimates are that if the USSR attacks first the US gets around 20-50 hits with nuclear weapons, which sounds really bad, but given the likely suboptimal distribution not enough to destroy the US as a country, more like make the US the 1945 USSR, while the US counterattacks wipe out the USSR and the Warsaw Pact save Hungary (and probably China, it wasn't officially on the new targeting list but General Powers really wanted to use the old list which did include China). Europe is worked over by both sides

If the US attacks first, then the Soviets probably don't get more than a handful of their long ranged weapons off, US almost untouched, USSR and Warsaw Pact (and probably China) gone. Europe is still wrecked

The thing is given the tensions and main flash points were in the Western Hemisphere, and the fact that General Powers and Admiral Anderson had authority left over from Eisenhower to launch if they thought a nuclear attack was in progress (not changed by JFK until after the crisis was over), most of the typical PODs, assuming they act in character, would probably see the US be the one to launch a full strike first
And if the coup fails? The first country likely to challenge things is India and they are big with a stable government, a coup is unlikely to work in the extreme
If the coup fails you send an ultimatum where you exige that they let American persons come and destroy the nuclear weapons, if they don't they might nuke you so almost everyone would comply
 
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