La Transizione Imperfetta - Italy 20 years after fascism
- Thread starter PolishMagnet
- Start date
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Yeah it's actually a mix of regional separatism, draft dodging / anti war activism, communist plots, and student protests.
In case it wasn't clear, it gets heavily suppressed in 1976 and then picks up again later, but it does continue at a lower level throughout.
Maybe like 3 "phases" of unrest, with the last being the nail in the coffin.
Nope, not unless you count Italy's friends Albania and Somalia. Three reasons:
1. Recognising ichkeria "sets precedent" and could open the door to separatism at home
2. Most Muslim countries that don't care about #1 are pro-russian
3. The Taliban recognised them, but they're not in charge of a country (ITTL)
Any countries who unofficially recognize Ichkeria (if you are wondering what I am thinking, see how quite a few countries have totally not embassies in Taipei IOTL) here?
As someone who was born in Milan in the early 1990s, the thought of growing up in an Italy that, on top of being even more corrupt and unstable than IRL, spent nearly a century under Fascism, straight up terrifies me; sure, going down the social democratic route Portugal and Spain took in OTL wouldn't be that bad but, everything seems to point at Italy being more akin to a post-Soviet state, in this regard, with the old regime continuing under a new coat of paint.
I guess the real question is, how much better is Italy doing overall compared to OTL? I mean not just in terms of total GDP or their armed forces, but the wealth and happiness of the average citizen, their political and diplomatic strength on the world stage, their global cultural impact, etc.
Considering the natalist policies of the fascist regime, I think Italy is much more populous.
Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia have limited cooperation with them, but the level of recognition fluctuates depending on their relations with Russia. Saudi Arabia has unofficial recognition, as do the Gulf states, but most countries do not want to risk provoking Russia, despite the popularity of the Chechen cause among their populations. Most of Europe unofficially recognises them, while the Med Council fully recognises them.
Their landlocked status makes it difficult for them to build connections, but relations are fairly warm with Azerbaijan and Georgia.
It is much more corrupt/stable in the way the Russian Federation was in the early 2010s, minus the sanctions and adding on EU funding. They get a lot of mileage out of the oil and gas industry in Libya. I'd say you're spot on with your guess, since I was going for something between Spain and Russia.
Italian mindset is a tricky one ITTL, somewhere between Russian apathy and French republican nationalism, with some Spanish leftism sprinkled in. I think for happiness, it's somewhere between modern Italy and early 2010s Russia. There are issues like youth unemployment, economic slowdown, but also things like oil and the military prop it up enough that the economy keeps growing year on year. Italian youth are annoyed by lack of change, the older generation is annoyed by changes which seem to be making things worse, and people involved in politics are slowly losing interest (slow rate of changes since 1994).
Italy holds sway over 3 main regions, ordered from least to most significant:
-Caucasus and North Africa
-Balkans
-East Africa, Sudan, and the DRC
The Caucasus has Italian partnerships in Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Ichkeria, mainly economic but also with Italian peacekeepers in Ichkeria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Artsakh. North Africa features a heavy Italian border force in Libya, as well as partnerships with Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Niger, and Chad to help maintain security (lessen the burden on the Libyan border - France and Italy often cooperate here) In the Balkans, Italy is the main arbitrator, but over time Bulgaria has taken a more active role. In East Africa, Italy maintains a strong presence especially in resource extraction and security, particularly in the DRC and Sudan where Italy stepped up as guarantors and peacekeepers. Both states are more stable ITTL, though Ethiopia is arguably worse (broken up, with half being in perpetual civil war).
It is, yes. I came up with population figures a while back, but I'm not sure how much sense they make. Main points:
-Italy sat out most of WW2
-Italy did not need to rebuild itself after WW2, but still received Marshall Plan funds
-Italy still controls Trieste, Rijeka (Fiume), Primorska (Venezia Giulia), Zadar (Zara) and obviously Libya
1936____+4.4%____42,993,602
1941____+4.9%____45,100,288
1951____+10.5%___49,835,818
1961____+6.5%____53,075,147
1971____+6.9%____56,737,332
1981____+4.5%____59,290,512
1991____+0.4%____59,527,674
2001____+0.4%____59,765,785
2011____+4.3%____62,335,714 59,433,744
(2021____+0.3% ____62,522,721 59,257,566)
Of Libya
2010____??____6,355,000
2011____??____8,655,000 This is assuming lots of differences - migration, no war, oil boom, etc
Total
2011 - 70,990,714
edit: fixed "table" spacing... darn AH.com and its lack of tabs
edit: will post retcon population stats
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Shouldn't it be bigger? Francoist Spain, an ideologically similar nation, for example, saw its population jump from 25,600,000 in 1939 to 47,500,500 in 2023. This is a growth of 85%, much higher than, for example, the 40% that Great-Britain grew in the same period.
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Interesting! I had no idea. I modeled the population growth after historical Italian population growth percentages and removing population decline from WW2.
I'll take a second look and see how it would go with Spanish population growth.
Not so different from the Years of Lead that normally happened in italian history, maybe a bit more violent but i don't expect a bigger difference in comparison.
Also if i can ask did something change in Yemen and especially in northern Yemen with the Kingdom of Yemen because Italy was the first state to recognize his indipendence and support It. Since his indipendence It remained a very pro italian state with great connection to Italy till the end of ww2.
Updated population stats (again, not including Libya)
Libya estimate
Maybe something like 11 million?
| Year | +/- p.a. | Population | OTL Population |
| 1936 | +0.87% | 42,993,602 | 42,993,602 |
| 1941 | +1.9 | 47,077,994 | - |
| 1951 | +0.78 | 50,750,078 | 47,515,537 |
| 1961 | +0.84 | 55,013,084 | 50,623,569 |
| 1971 | +1.05 | 60,789,458 | 54,136,547 |
| 1981 | +0.95 | 66,564,456 | 56,556,911 |
| 1991 | +0.31 | 68,627,954 | 56,778,031 |
| 2001 | +0.5 | 72,059,352 | 56,995,744 |
| 2011 | +1.37 | 81,931,483 | 59,433,744 |
| 2021 (estimate) | +0.12 | 82,914,661 | 59,257,566 |
Libya estimate
Maybe something like 11 million?
How will this Italy view immigration? And where will most immigrants come from?
It's more like France, with immigrants coming more from former colonies and places neighbouring colonies (Libya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Tunisia, Egypt, Sudan, DRC)
Early immigration was primarily from the balkans, since they were war-torn and Italy was not.
How bad with anti-immigrant xenophobia be in Italy?
You would probably get a substantial number of Latin Americans, especially those with Italian ancestry.
Even today there are some migrants to Italy from Latin America, as someone who speaks Spanish natively and then learned Italian it was very funny to hear essentially "inverse Argentinian," that is Spanish sounds and inflections layered under Italian. Much more comprehensible than Argentine Spanish for me, counter-intuitively, if the person speaking Italian came from somewhere with a similar dialect of Spanish.
In this timeline there might be more immigrants, and "returning" Italians. Mussolini IOTL was big on asking immigrants to return. Originally, of course, many European immigrants to the New World came to work temporarily, so it wasn't too unbelievable to believe more could be attracted back even if that effort never reached il Duce's lofty expectations.
Would this lead to problems of "overpopulation?" In my view, that term is usually basically a euphemism for something else, and rarely ever actually a problem. Or at least, rarely the root cause of societal issues.
I hope eventually the TL will get into issues surrounding the Italian film industry. I have to imagine Italian film will be extremely different ITTL. Neorealism has its roots in Fascist era cinema, but I doubt we'll see it in a recognizable form or the magical realism that followed. The same directors will probably be working but I don't see Fellini doing great at Fascist Cinecittà, for example.
Out of curiosity does Italy retain control of its island possessions in the Aegean or are they under Greek hands? Or are they a dominion?