TLIAW: Who Governs?

[Ogrebear]

Well that was a dramatic 2009 election there. How did the Tories gain 96 but Labour only lost 10 please?

"With cuts to business taxes, the abolition of higher income tax brackets and a lowering of Capital Gains" - well Labour is portraying that as a budget for the rich then.

"When Elizabeth Anania was elected President," - well American politics has indeed gone differently!

"Epstein’s arrest in June 2005 and the concurrent FBI investigation" - bet Epstein is not found hanged ITTL.

"Prince Andrew, the Duke of York, [snip] had attended many of Epstein’s parties." - I am not sure this would be possible if Andrew is heir. I think the Court would have kept a VERY tight reign on Andrew and stopped him going to that sort of thing simply to prevent the sort of scandal you describe. Andrew is now where as free to roam as he was OTL as 'the spare.'

"the line of succession after Andrew would remain intact, meaning it would still fall to Andrew’s daughters’ Beatrice and Eugenie to take the throne." - they both cannot take the Throne.

"Andrew would accept nothing less, and by extension, neither would the Queen." - I think the Queen would very much have her own opinions and would be leading this with Andrew having to take whatever deal she came up with. QE2 is way more assertive in the family than I feel you have her being here.

"at former President Anania’s state funeral." - WTF happened to the sitting President?

"a NATO (but mostly) US and UK task force moved into Afghanistan and Pakistan." - that will not go down well in Britain. Invasions of two countries? I cannot see NATO leaders buying it either.

"The intervention was dragging on," - and will never end!

"an agreement had been reached, which committed almost every major nation to reduce emissions" - well that will amount to nothing as usual.

"Mitchell, gallivanting the globe, was similarly indifferent to domestic politics" - always keep an eye on the domestics and the economy...

"the signing of the Trans-Atlantic Trade Pact" - was that between the EU and ??? or just the UK and ???

"Mitchell found himself the unfortunate figurehead of a corrupt house of cards." - one about to tumble!

"(including Alan Sugar’s much vaunted “Centre Party”)" - Sugar as an MP heh? Nice.

"became infamous, pushing for the party to adopt populist economic policies" - won't end well.

"The world also seemed to be shifting right, with hard-right leaders" - won't end well.

"Mitchell swanned away from the Westminster stage, whistling a jaunty tune while doing so." - and likely pocketing a ton of cash on the way out in terms of cushy jobs and a speaking tour.

Wonder whom gets this increasingly poisoned chalice next then?

Will right-wing dog-whistle populism undermine a more left Labour party supporting actual working front line people?

Looking forward to more.

 

[Tanner151]

"at former President Anania’s state funeral." - WTF happened to the sitting President?

She died of cancer IRL. So if she kept her cancer hidden during the election it would alienate many Americans and could help explain why they elected a more right wing President after the Daschle Presidency who is “up front” about his or her health.

 

[Unknown]

IMO, if Andrew were the heir, Jeffrey Epstein would meet with a nasty accident. A very nasty accident, to quote the 1933 version of The Invisible Man...

 

[Nevran]

I'm guessing that ITTL, Encyclopædia Dramatica isn't the troll site that is OTL, right?

Correct, and thanks to butterflies avoids becoming the hell site it actual is.

I am slightly embarrassed by how, upon realizing I didn't recognize the name and seeking out information, I got genuinely excited when I learnt it was Mr Plebgate himself! Shocking to see him use it to his advantage here but thrilling nonetheless. The prevailing feeling of grimness (Enviromental issues not withstanding) really works out here and that last line really stuck in my head as I was reading it.

The CCHQ leak might come back to haunt the next PM in the future update...

Thank you though. Mitchell was supposed to have a difficult tenure and even if it isn't his fault per say, he probably leaves the country worse off than when he found it. And, he's got a cushy job waiting for him, with a successor who'll want to push him off the stage. Reasons for his optimism at least.

Well that was a dramatic 2009 election there. How did the Tories gain 96 but Labour only lost 10 please?

"Prince Andrew, the Duke of York, [snip] had attended many of Epstein’s parties." - I am not sure this would be possible if Andrew is heir. I think the Court would have kept a VERY tight reign on Andrew and stopped him going to that sort of thing simply to prevent the sort of scandal you describe. Andrew is now where as free to roam as he was OTL as 'the spare.'

"the line of succession after Andrew would remain intact, meaning it would still fall to Andrew’s daughters’ Beatrice and Eugenie to take the throne." - they both cannot take the Throne.

"Andrew would accept nothing less, and by extension, neither would the Queen." - I think the Queen would very much have her own opinions and would be leading this with Andrew having to take whatever deal she came up with. QE2 is way more assertive in the family than I feel you have her being here.

"at former President Anania’s state funeral." - WTF happened to the sitting President?

"a NATO (but mostly) US and UK task force moved into Afghanistan and Pakistan." - that will not go down well in Britain. Invasions of two countries? I cannot see NATO leaders buying it either.

"the signing of the Trans-Atlantic Trade Pact" - was that between the EU and ??? or just the UK and ???

"(including Alan Sugar’s much vaunted “Centre Party”)" - Sugar as an MP heh? Nice.

Looking forward to more.

Oh boy, that's a fair amount to answer but thank you for all your comments.

Ah it's 101 seats, not 10. The symbol next to it does a bad job of hiding that.

Regarding Andrew's connections to Epstein, I'd imagine that he'd get worse (ego, shamelessness) with more power and more influence. Andrew isn't the type to be told no, is the way I feel about him. Anyway, it works as a good

The line of succession continues to Beatrice and Eugenie, not they both take the throne.

Well, the solution is hammered out with the Queen, after Mitchell first consults Commonwealth leaders. She's still pretty assertive in TTL.

It definitely does not go down well in Britain. Even with 3/9, and the little war seen since, military intervention is always unpopular. I'd say the bulk of the NATO intervention is in Afghanistan (as in OTL) with a authorization for airstrikes/anti-terror operations/humanitarian support for Pakistan, which morphs into an occupation.

TATP is the EU-US.

Please, Alan Sugar wants to be PM, not just a lowly MP. He would probably settle for a plush cabinet position though if worse-comes-to-worse.

"at former President Anania’s state funeral." - WTF happened to the sitting President?

She died of cancer IRL. So if she kept her cancer hidden during the election it would alienate many Americans and could help explain why they elected a more right wing President after the Daschle Presidency who is “up front” about his or her health.

Anania is elected in 2008, cancer-free after being in remission since 2004. She does good work when President, but finds out her cancer has returned in Autumn of 2010 and resigns after admitting the prognosis and the difficulties of medical treatment in early 2011. Daschle is her VP, who rides the sympathy wave to a comfortable re-election. By 2016 though, Daschle is deeply unpopular and choose not to run for re-election (despite constitutionally being able to do so). The Democratic nominee well, its former First Husband and Governor of North Carolina, John Edwards.

 

[ProgressiveIsraelFan]

assassination of Prince Charles

Wait when did that happen

 

[ProgressiveIsraelFan]

"the line of succession after Andrew would remain intact, meaning it would still fall to Andrew’s daughters’ Beatrice and Eugenie to take the throne." - they both cannot take the Throne.
Whynot

 

[C2sg]

It took me a while to realise that the Liberal Party is now extinct in this timeline and many prominent Liberals, joined Labour or the Tories e.g. Nick Clegg.

 

[Nevran]

Wait when did that happen

It's in the Jay update. It's one of the major events and the reason why she gets popular and wins in 1996.

It took me a while to realise that the Liberal Party is now extinct in this timeline and many prominent Liberals, joined Labour or the Tories e.g. Nick Clegg.

Many of those (like Cable, Kennedy) just stayed in Labour, as there was no centrist alternative.

But, centrists and former Liberals will be happy to know though that Alan Sugar's "Centre" Party is now on the scene and here to save the day.

 

[KingSweden24]

It's in the Jay update. It's one of the major events and the reason why she gets popular and wins in 1996.

Many of those (like Cable, Kennedy) just stayed in Labour, as there was no centrist alternative.

But, centrists and former Liberals will be happy to know though that Alan Sugar's "Centre" Party is now on the scene and here to save the day.

Cable in Labour, eh? Why did I have the impression Vince Cable was an Orange Book, center-right Lib Dem IoTL?

 

[Nevran]

Cable in Labour, eh? Why did I have the impression Vince Cable was an Orange Book, center-right Lib Dem IoTL?

Yeah he is still sort of Orange Book (or at least not committed to tax and spend), but he ran for multiple seats as a Labour candidate and was a Labour councillor, before leaving the party at the left-wards shift in the early 80s. No alternative with the SDP and a more right-wing Labour party keeps him there till he's too ambitious to think about leaving again.

 

[Nevran]

Tim Montgomerie (Conservative) 2017-2020
When people don’t see a future that they are a part of, they fight for what little they have now.
​

Populist figures, from Enoch Powell to Neil Hamilton, to even leftist examples such as Bryan Gould have struggled to get into power in Westminster, with the natural caution of Brits usually rejecting such figures at the ballot box. But, when the electoral firewall fails, as it did globally in the late 2010s, with a litany of breaches caused by economic strife, global insecurity, technological interconnectivity and social change, it falls to the checks and balances of the state to keep accountable.

As the right-populist wave crested in the mid-to-late 2010s, Tim Montgomerie was one of those men who sought to break the status quo and redefine the era. However, as the institutions of state, of the media and of common decency would hold, and as their agendas got stuck in the mud, these figures would go down in defeat. It was up to the character of the populist whether they would drag the country down with them. Montgomerie’s dramatic departure seems indicative of the worst of these figures.

But Montgomerie was not the fire-breathing populist that his contemporaries such as America’s Ralph Reed and France’s Laurent Wauquiez were. Bookish, a keen writer, soft-spoken and with a relentless focus on social justice, traits more in keeping with a Labour leader than Conservative one, Montgomerie was once seen as the nicest men in politics.

To understand the successes, the turmoil, the rollercoaster of Montgomerie’s premiership, we need to return to the beginning.

Montgomerie’s first political memory is the successful vote of no confidence in the Hattersley government, and the frantic November campaign which followed. His father, an army man, cared for defence and the union, and the radical Margo MacDonald and the Labour party which made its bed with them, informed Montgomerie’s swing to the right.

Montgomerie would also be underdog by his university experience, going and graduating from Exeter University. While a good university, Exeter was not the breeding ground of future leaders of the Conservative Party. Afterall, it was during Montgomerie’s years in university that the infamous “Trinty (College) Testers” of Howe, a cabal of fellow Cambridge grads, dominated government.

But Montgomerie was ambitious. He understood networking and found an ideological gap in the Conservative party for him to exploit. During university, he formed the “Conservative Christian Fellowship”, (derided later, and as the group went national, as the CFC’s as their members had quote “holes in their heads”), to fill in an ideological gap between Christian values and Conservative policy. What these Christian values entailed, including Montgomerie’s once-fierce promotion of “traditional values on homosexuality” and a genuine care and concern for the working class. Economically’ left’ and socially ‘right’, Montgomerie was out of the mainstream for Howe’s Conservative party. Yet, such differences defined and distinguished Montgomerie as someone who would shake things up and his network would grow because of it.

It would also be during his time at Exeter that Montgomerie gained his closest political allies, including Sajid Javid, Robert Halfon and Christian Burrowes, all men who would rise as Montgomerie did.

Almost immediately after university, Montgomerie would jump into his first role and would be one of the first, and soon-to-be pervasive, “spin doctors”. Working in the bowels of the Conservative Party machine, Montgomerie became a statistician and pollster, testing party policy with focus groups. Montgomerie would field test much of the spin on the Secure Streets and Border Act and would sell the “hard” crime and punishment agenda to skeptical audiences. Montgomerie worked hard, put his head down and kept people on side.

With the 1994 loss, Montgomerie disheartened and over-worked (he later admitted he suffered from severe depression during this time), resigned his position and became a full-time journalist. He leveraged his connections, to become a writer for the Daily Telegraph. It was in this role that Montgomerie refined his craft and made a name for himself, pushing so-called “compassionate conservatism” and winning plaudits for his views and his writing. He also had a significant stipend from the Conservative party to build up the CCF and it was his work in bringing in a new generation (many those who joined CCF joined to rally against Jay’s socially liberal agenda).
It was Liam Fox’s leadership which returned Montgomerie to Conservative Party politics. Inspired by Fox’s leadership, his tough approach to Europe, his principled policies, Montgomerie rejoined CCHQ, this time in a much more senior position. The rumour remains to this day that it was Montgomerie who orchestrated and encouraged the News of the World to start targeting Jay on her scandalous web of relationships and marital affairs.

Montgomerie would do well and would get the notice of Fox. He would go on to become Fox’s Chief of Staff and main speechwriter, only a year into his role.

What followed was either a remarkable coincidence (or a nudge from the Leader of the Opposition). Simon Robert Key, the MP for Sailsbury, unexpectedly resigned his seat to chair a commission into the tainted blood scandal, set up by Jay in 2002. Montgomerie, who lived in Sailsbury and didn’t like the hustle-and-bustle of Westminister life, suddenly had a once in a lifetime opportunity. After some cajoling from Fox and some of his CCF friends who were also prospective candidates for seats, Montgomerie agreed. He won both the nomination and the by-election easily.

​

Montgomerie would continue to serve as Fox’s Chief of Staff and joined the shadow cabinet in 2003, gaining the appropriately vague role of Shadow Minister without Portfolio. On the right of the party, loyal to Fox, Montgomerie would often wade in battles and political squabbles, on Europe, social policy and would corral MPs to Fox’s position. It wasn’t the easiest of roles for Montgomerie and did lead to political trouble for him and his party.

It was Montgomerie’s insistence that Fox whip the Conservative benches against gay marriage (and the turmoil which followed on the Conservative backbenches at such the order), which encouraged Hain to go for the 2004 election and win that majority.

In the aftermath of the 2004 election and with Andrew Mitchell’s rise, Montgomerie would find himself forced out of frontline politics and returned to the backbenches. To some of the more craven and desperate political hacks, this would be a death sentence. Montgomerie, though, in his autobiography described what followed as some of “happiest years of my life”. Serving as a dedicated constituency MP, spending significant stretches of his time solving local issues such as campaigning against the NCS’s preliminary plans to close some of the care homes in his constituency and founding and organizing backbench MPs in pressure groups (such as the Economic Research Group and the Common-Sense Bloc), Montgomerie would thrive.

It was at such groups that Montgomerie became the darling of the right-wing of the party, and he was also embraced by United Conservative Party MPs, many of whom shared Montgomerie’s views on a range of issues.

The 2009 election was an all-hands-on-deck situation and saw Montgomerie loyally supported the party line and Mitchell’s campaign. The elation of winning a Conservative majority government was tempered for Montgomerie by Liam Fox being defeated in Eastwood, because of the especially strong campaign by Tommy Sheppard’s Scottish Labour.

Excluded from Mitchell’s first government, Montgomerie would often make coded criticism of the economic policies of the Mitchell-Herbert government, if crediting the approach for reducing debt. Montgomerie’s arguments were often ignored by the Cabinet and higher-ups, even if popular with his subset of Conservatives.

What made Montgomerie to the public was his tirades and criticisms of Europe and the Florin. Even if many Conservatives agreed it was a “settled issue”, Montgomerie often outright blamed the ECB and Florin for the economic stagnation which defined Britain in the 2010s. Such opinions were radical, consensus-breaking and popular.

The 2013 election was dirty. It wasn’t fought on the merits of the Mitchell government, but the threat of a Labour one. When the election concluded almost identically to 2009, it left all major parties agitated and discontent. The status quo was painful, and the election had just reinforced it.

As such, it’s often forgotten that it was Labour which embraced a populist leader first. John Cryer, a long-time party backbencher and a committed member of the Socialist Campaign Group announced his bid and was treated as a long shot. His grassroots and activist campaign instead swept the “future stars” of the party away, like Gloria Del Piero, Torsten Bell and was the curtain call for Vince Cable, the man who had wanted to be leader for over 15 years at this point.

​

As Labour was breaking the status quo, Mitchell was seeking an escape from it too. Wanting to have greater leeway to focus his energies abroad and to foreign affairs, Mitchell’s post-election Cabinet reshuffle finally saw his critics brought inside the tent, to give him breathing room.

As such, Tim Montgomerie entered Cabinet for the first time, becoming a Minister of State for Housing. A firm believer of “home-owning democracy”, Montgomerie began preparing significant legislation, but was often stymied by the civil service, local governments and his boss, the Minister for Communities and Local Government, Damian Green.

Becoming frustrated by the lack of progress, with Mitchell “always having his out-of-office on” and the radical Cryer making ground in the opinion polls, Montgomerie resigned on a matter of principle after his plans to introduce mandatory home-building target were shelved. Montgomerie’s resignation unwittingly unleashed a flood of other resignations shortly after, destabilizing Mitchell’s premiership.

And then the expenses scandal hit. So many of those who were tipped for greater office, to Caroline Spelman, David Laws and Jonathan Djanogly, to prominent figures on the backbenches such as Jacob Rees-Mogg and Owen Paterson, all were tarred by the mess. Many were forced either out of Cabinet or out of Parliament all together. The scandal destroyed any remaining credibility and wrecked the status quo, which Mitchell was unwittingly the steward and personification of.

Montgomerie, meanwhile, survived the expenses scandal with a spotless record. Such a record, and all his past actions, policies and principles, but him in pole position for any potential leadership bid. And so, when discontent reached fever-pitch over Christmas 2016, and when Mitchell resigned, Montgomerie threw his hat into the ring, recognising it was, finally, his time.

Most of Mitchell’s cabinet chose to sit out the leadership election, reeling from the expenses scandal and so it was Home Secretary Nick Hurd (a political scion) who took up the mantle of continuity. While Montgomerie’s network building gave him a significant amount of support from MPs, Hurd still had the bulk of the parliamentary party supporting him and was expected to us this to keep his momentum going.

When the campaign moved to the members, Montgomerie ran away with it. His ideas were fresh and new. His policies, on a razor-sharp focus on social justice, were tampered with (some would say hard-right) politics on morality, culture, immigration and Europe. Members, wowed by Montgomerie’s substantial criticism of Europe and the European Union overlooked the economic gaps in his plans. His relentless focus on domestic politics was a tonic for those sick of Mitchell’s globe-trotting and the “forever wars”, as the public parlance went, he had committed Britain too.

Meanwhile, Hurd struggle to articulate a vision of what he would offer if Prime Minister and what would be different with him in charge. Hurd also polled significantly worse than Montgomerie did, and with so many Tory members fearing Cryer’s Labour, this mattered.

And so, in a landslide, Montgomerie won the members’ vote and shocked by victory, found himself momentarily speechless as he took the podium for the first time outside Number 10.

Shaking his head, Montgomerie began. Speaking about the “mistakes of the previous government”, he emphasised that politics as usual could not go on. A self-interested and self-absorbed body politik had led to failures of policy, of credibility and of voter’s trust. Pledging an end to austerity, standing up for Britain in Europe and the world, Montgomerie drew a line in the sand from his predecessor. It was a good speech, hand-written by the Prime Minister himself and it shattered the political consensus.

After years of Cabinet being dominated by older white men (from Jay going back), widely seen as safe pairs of hands, Montgomerie found fresh talent. Foreign Secretary Theresa Villiers (a noted euroskeptic), alongside Home Secretary Stephen Crabb (a social conservative) entered the great offices with the clear intention though would stir things up in their respective departments. The Chancellor, Justine Greening, who had served as Chief Secretary of the Treasury for many years was an olive branch to Mitchellites but was firmly in-line with the economic redistribution and social justice aspects of Montgomerie’s agenda. Allies from Montgomerie’s university and backbench days such as Sajid Javid, David Burrowes and Robert Halfon were given plum Cabinet positions befitting their loyalty, as were those who Montgomerie respected like Andrea Leadsom and Dominic Raab. It was also most right-wing Cabinet since Brittan’s.

Downing Street was also dramatically changed. Abandoning the more cabinet focused approach of Mitchell, power was centralized around Montgomerie and his core team, which included Sam Coates, Paul Goodman and Dominic Cummings, men who had cut their teeth working in right-wing media and pressure groups. Such centralization was to be expected, after all, Montgomerie was a workaholic unmarried bachelor, not suited to teamwork. While cheap comparisons followed comparing Montgomerie to Heath, such comparisons fell to the wayside when comparing policy.

In the first major divergence, Greening’s first budget turned on the spending taps for so-called “compassionate conservative” policies, with funding to recruit tens of thousands of nurses, teachers, care workers and police officers. Welfare spending was increased, and plans announced to introduce an energy price cap to protect vulnerable customers were introduced.

Then followed the creation of “Network North”, which prioritised infrastructure in the North (and recommitting the government to HS2 stopping in Leeds) alongside electrifying the rail-line between Liverpool and Leeds. Montgomerie also committed to major infrastructure spending on landmarks and buildings, in order to restore some of Britain’s worn-down heritage sites and brownfield areas.

Montgomerie also focused on housebuilding. His “New Towns Initiative”, reforming planning laws, increasing government led and directed development, pledged hundreds of thousands of new houses a year. With new housing estates and towns popping up across the country, boosted by local and private investment joining such projects, by 2018, the construction sector was booming.

Montgomerie also began the process of withdrawing troops from Afghanistan and Pakistan, in conjunction with President Reed’s promise to “bring our boys home”. Even if Afghanistan was left anarchic and Pakistan insecure, voters were glad to have turned the page on the messy saga.

Montgomerie also began to agitate in European Council meetings and at the negotiating table. No longer willing to be simply ‘constructive’, Montgomerie spent a lot of time briefing against his fellow European leaders. Alongside withdrawing the Conservative Party from the EPP (creating the euroskeptic European Democrat Party), Montgomerie began arguing for changes to the constitution, migration, integration and on fiscal rules. Montgomerie (and the British public) enjoyed taking on a confrontational role on the European stage.

At the G13 Summit in Bristol, Montgomerie was able to sell his political vision to his fellow leaders, pledging millions to more rounds of debt forgiveness and humanitarian aid to the war-torn nations in the Horn of Africa.

But, even in his popular early years, Montgomerie’s style of government was already raising concerns. Montgomerie was a genuinely nice man, and cared for those around him. Retaining loyal, if not talented ministers was common and caused by both Montgomerie's lack of ruthlessness or political craven reasons, meant people with significant faults and liabilities were kept on. The most infamous scandal was with Montgomerie retaining confidence in Stephen Crabb as Home Secretary despite the constant drip of scandal, all the way up to the leaking of highly embarrassing pictures of sexually explicit threads on ConnectU.

Montgomerie was also cautious and was not the most gifted of campaigners. Disliking the campaign trail and often delegating to surrogates where able, he held off an election until the Summer of 2018. Even though he remained popular, waiting for so long caused discontent on Tory backbenches.

Montgomerie though had good reason for waiting. Working through the ERG and pressure groups, Montgomerie and with the Conservative-friendly UCP leader Matthew Elliot, negotiated the ‘King’s Lynn pact’ which saw UCP standing down candidates in a many battleground and Conservative incumbent seats, as did the Conservatives in UCP seats. This pact virtually ensured a majority government for Montgomerie and this electoral alliance represented a major step towards reconciliation between the UCP and the Conservative Party.

And so, with the competition stitched up before the starting pistol was even fired, it was clear who was on top.

Cryer, who had spent years wrestling his party was ill-equipped for the campaign trail. Even with an army of supporters in young people and unions, many of his policies were well outside the political mainstream. Renationalisation, union-approved worker’s deals, an industrial strategy which seemed set to violate both European state aid laws and Florinzone deficit spending rules, Labour seemed to be a world of its own. Cryer’s swing to the left (powered by his young wife and her radical sister) also ran afoul of the media, who painted Cryer’s Labour as an existential threat to British values. Montgomerie had moved to the left economically as well, and neutralized Cryer’s most popular arguments like those against austerity, welfare cuts and Mitchellism.

Meanwhile, Alan Sugar’s “Centre Party”, which had polled at 20% in the heady days of the autumn of 2016, had seen a sustained decline. Centre’s policies were firmly in the neo-liberal centre. Sugar, who had spent a significant amount of time trying to get prominent defectors from the Conservatives and Labour party failed in this strategy. With only gadflies like Mike Gapes and Stanley Johnson, Centre seemed to lack the institutional credibility needed to get a foot in the door. Lining up candidates nationwide regardless, on the hope AV could boost his party’s chances, Sugar’s campaign soon devolved into a contest for rich voters second preference ballots.

When election day came, Montgomerie received the largest majority his party had received for almost 30 years. It was an incredible vindication for the PM.

​

The majority though, was not stable. The Conservative ranks, bolstered, had disparate voter bases, ideologies, personality and little affinity with one another. Mitchellites from the shires and home countries, one-nation moderates from leafy suburbs such as Solihull and Putney, euroskeptics from Grimsby and Blackpool and former Labour voters from places like Bishop Auckland (Jay’s former seat fell to the blue wave, in one of the biggest shocks of the night) all had different priorities and expectations of the next government. On top of this many of these MPs were also brand new to parliament, with the exodus after the expenses scandal, meaning many did not understand the traditions which kept Westminster stable and delivering.

On top of that, with the defeat of former Home Secretary Stephen Crabb by the independent candidate and women’s rights campaigner and broadcaster Sandi Toksvig, rattled Montgomerie more than he let on.

But the business of government would and could not stop. A significant re-organisation of local and devolved governments, the headline grabbing part being the abolition of the Greater London Council, was forced through.

Labelled a power grab by Westminster, new metro-zones were created across England, which saw towns and cities councils dis-empowered, ‘rudders’ closed, and funding allocated from a central (and smaller) pot. The act also took away the power for devolved assemblies to weigh in on constitutional matters, such as independence referendums, leading to fury from national parliaments (and regional ones, including the Northeast). Montgomerie, a committed unionist, said the Act provided “clarity” as nationalists marched on the streets decrying the bill.

The protests were not helped by bad communication from the government around the act. After all, Montgomerie who had stacked his cabinet with his friends and ideological allies, did not a wealth of talent to draw on. Cabinet was defined by continual squabbling, never-ending leaks and lacklustre media appearances. Soon, such personalities became implicated in scandal such as Alex Johnson with a love child scandal, Raab from allegations of bullying, Nick Clegg for improper relations with tech giant Darwin and Leadsom for lying to the press.

Just when experienced hands were needed on the tiller, Montgomerie’s landmark policy the “New Town’s Initiative” hit roadblocks. In the haste to get government approval and bad decisions and loopholes in the regulation reforms, many of these towns had little infrastructure to and from (dirt roads to outcrops of houses became frequent images in the paper). Scandals soon came with so called “fast-lanes” for construction companies, which saw public money funnelled to either sham companies or into Tory donors such as JCB tycoon Marcus Bamford.

Meanwhile the collapse of Carillion in the summer of 2019, one of the main construction companies in the nation, led to thousands of projects shelved and culminated with the expensive partial nationalisation of Carillion.

As the New Town’s Initiative ground to a halt, a concurrent Guardian investigation found that the Qatar government had improperly funded, bribed and extorted key civil servants, ministers, mayors and backbench MPs to get them to leverage public money on risky “show-off” projects. As oil prices collapsed globally and increased scrutiny was paid, Qatar’s funding dried up. As the regeneration of Battersea Power Station in London to Old Trafford in Manchester were left half incomplete, it was the public who had to pick up the tab.

London Mayor George Osborne’s resignation because of Qatargate in March 2020 was the biggest casualty of the scandal, but many MPs were implicated. It was a mockery of the values of transparency, accountability and good man theory which voters expected of Whitehall and Westminster.

The ugly status quo which Montgomerie had been elected to break, had seemingly swept up his political agenda and by 2020, his popularity. Justine Greening’s resignation in April 2020, after Downing Street and its political advisors had briefed against her, was seen as a necessary evil.

Montgomerie’s choice of Simon Clarke as Greening’s replacement gave the PM, his first and so-far greatest opportunity. Hushed meetings between Number 10 and Number 11, interventions from Dominic Cummings who had taken on an ever-greater presence in Number 10 and feelers to media and testing groups followed. Europe, the bugbear which roiled British politics, was suddenly back on the top of the agenda.

Montgomerie, a committed euroskeptic, had been seeking a way to untangle Britain from Europe ever since he entered Parliament in 2002. Elected as leader partially due to his criticisms of the Florin and Florinzone, he had spent years trying to undermine the EU’s core pillars of migration, integration and monetary alignment.

Outside of window-dressing achievements (such as the rotation of the ECB every 3 years to Florinzone member nations), Montgomerie had achieved little in this quest. His confrontational approach at the European Council table had significant downsides. European officials and leaders soon began to exclude Britain from various negotiations, agreeing decisions and presenting them fait accompli. Such decision-making infuriated Brits and Montgomerie, with communication channels breaking down. It all culminated in disaster, with neither side sure of the other’s next move. And as such, Montgomerie saw only one way out.

Montgomerie, in a dramatic Wednesday evening speech, with Chancellor Clarke and Foreign Secretary Villiers beside him, announced that because of stalled negotiations, the changed political consensus, and with memory of the economic turmoil that dominated Britain at the turn of the decade, said that it was time for a change.

Britain and her government would be seeking to withdraw from the Florinzone.

What followed was “Black Thursday”, the self-inflicted wound which almost collapsed the UK’s economy, the UK’s relationship with Europe and which did destroy Montgomerie. The markets tore past the assurances given by Clarke on maintaining macroeconomic stability and believed that the 5th largest economy in the world had just committed an act of monetary and political self-immolation.

Investors panicked, the stock market tumbled, and European leaders were aghast. The markets, started to sell stocks and panic sell Florin bonds. As the ECB reacted to the crisis, Europe, having finally recovered from the recession, seemed to crash back into another one. Brits, by now used to the Florin, began a run on the banks, withdrawing as much money as possible. Exchange rates plummted, and soon the Florin was at parity with the dollar, leading to crisis in manufacturing and exporting sectors. One crisis spiraled into another, and soon it became an all-encompassing 'permacrisis'.

As the Leader of the Opposition decried the “ideological hijacking of the British and European economy”, as “idiotic experimentation to win over hard-right messagers” and lamented the “destruction of our reputation globally”, many agreed.

Simon Clarke’s resignation two weeks after the speech, admitting he had “botched” the aftermath as he did not “expect such a reaction”, or the promise of a consultative referendum on it to buy time and stability was not enough to cool anger both domestically and internationally. Montgomerie's opinion ratings, which had been languishing from earlier scandals went into freefall. It took less than a month of the aftermath to see Montgomerie out.

Admitting after his resignation, that his mental health and depression was the worse it had ever been, that it felt like the walls were closing around him, and he needed to get out while he still could. Returning to his home, Montgomerie sought the advice of his parents, the people he trusted and cared for the most. The rumour to this day is that when his mother told him to resign, Montgomerie cried in relief at her suggestion.

It would be for someone else to pick up the pieces of broken promises, the crashed economy, the trashed standards and what little was left of Britain’s international reputation.

 

[Ogrebear]

Seems like Tim Montgomerie is quite a nice chap on a lot of things, but simply could not see talent over friends. He needed a strong Cabinet of talent and skill not his mates from Uni. Seems networking does always bring you the right people.

I was half expecting Europe to push him out, that or a secret gay relationship for max irony.

A referendum on Britain staying in the EU might have been the thing to aim for instead of a withdrawal from the Florinzone- it would have set off the pundits, and public alike, plus maintained right-wing cred without crashing the economy as bad.

Still, maybe historians looking back on Montgomerie will be kind to his early years as PM.

Wonder whom is picking up the crown?

 

[TGW]

Okay so this one didn't even remotely ring a bell at first but the second I looked up who it was I just groaned. On a side note, just hearing that Ralph Reed got known out of insular political circles is definitely an ick moment in and of itself. As is the confirmation that we still get a bloody tainted blood scandal. Ah well, I think the build up of his career is really well done here, particularly as you are taking a guy who at present has no office to hold and carving out a decent career.

Cryer is a interesting character and one that did make me wonder if the American actor of similar name had taken a really different career path for a moment. A couple of the names brought down by the expenses drew a little eyebrow raise, and then the list of his cabinet basically made them vanish into the hemisphere! But MP Toksvig! Fuck yeah! Osbourne and Clegg's mini-scandals were interesting to see and very plausibly plotted. And the Florin scandal was beautifully done....

Which raises the question of who the fuck is left. I can't wait to see who'll either drive the Tories into the ground or brings them back above water. Bring it on!

 

[ProgressiveIsraelFan]

Perhaps you could to another TLIAW on some featured nations such as Germany or the US

 

[iPolytheistic_tsar]

What’s the story with all the independent mps?

 

[Nevran]

Seems like Tim Montgomerie is quite a nice chap on a lot of things, but simply could not see talent over friends. He needed a strong Cabinet of talent and skill not his mates from Uni. Seems networking does always bring you the right people.

I was half expecting Europe to push him out, that or a secret gay relationship for max irony.

A referendum on Britain staying in the EU might have been the thing to aim for instead of a withdrawal from the Florinzone- it would have set off the pundits, and public alike, plus maintained right-wing cred without crashing the economy as bad.

Still, maybe historians looking back on Montgomerie will be kind to his early years as PM.

Wonder whom is picking up the crown?

I tried to imagine the Cabinet would be a poll in 2012 on Conservative Home of who would be the 'best talents', but without some of the more infamous people. That and a lot of his fellow MPs didn't back him in the leadership contest, meaning that some wouldn't pass the inevitable prodding questions. Hence, a Cabinet of underdeveloped, youngish and right-wing politicos.

Regarding the referendum, to sum up three main reasons why there wasn't an pledge for a referendum was a). go big or go home (i.e. September 2022), ideology over pragmatism and all the big dogs in Cabinet were in agreement about jumping ship leads to rushed and dramatic decisions. b). voters might choose to stay in (one of the main reasons why eurosceptics like Portillo didn't back a referendum on the Euro in OTL was the fear that Brits could say Yes, c). Polling would probably be on the Montgomerie's side, in theory, so it's almost redundant to hold a referendum.

They do reverse this decision and pledge a referendum, but by that time, the floor had fallen out. Voters Whether Montgomerie's successor follows this plan, is still unknown.

Okay so this one didn't even remotely ring a bell at first but the second I looked up who it was I just groaned. On a side note, just hearing that Ralph Reed got known out of insular political circles is definitely an ick moment in and of itself. As is the confirmation that we still get a bloody tainted blood scandal. Ah well, I think the build up of his career is really well done here, particularly as you are taking a guy who at present has no office to hold and carving out a decent career.

Cryer is a interesting character and one that did make me wonder if the American actor of similar name had taken a really different career path for a moment. A couple of the names brought down by the expenses drew a little eyebrow raise, and then the list of his cabinet basically made them vanish into the hemisphere! But MP Toksvig! Fuck yeah! Osbourne and Clegg's mini-scandals were interesting to see and very plausibly plotted. And the Florin scandal was beautifully done....

Which raises the question of who the fuck is left. I can't wait to see who'll either drive the Tories into the ground or brings them back above water. Bring it on!

These populists have a socially conservative tint to them, that's for sure. And thanks as well, I wanted to spend a bit more time mapping out his early career than I've done with the others to really build and flesh him out. A bit more context as well as he's really obscure, so a dive into his personality helps too.

I can't take all the credit for Cryer, as I saw him in @Cevolian's brilliant Hanging Together Redux , and recycled him as a good example of an alt-Corbyn.

A later expenses scandal just means a lot of behaviours gets worse and it was fun to put prominent people in other places only to see them fall.

The Florin scandal, was one of the harder parts of the TL to write and I was worried that it would be too unbelievable/unable to live up with certain political events in the UK. Glad to see it stuck the landing (even if it was a car-crash of a situation).

Perhaps you could to another TLIAW on some featured nations such as Germany or the US

Thanks, that is a good idea, potentially after I've finished this (and got back to Exocet). I wanted to give Britain a bit of love in the TLIAW trend and so focused it fully on my homeland.

What’s the story with all the independent mps?

A more proportional voting system, Alternative Vote, is the main reason for it. It allows suspended party MPs from in their place and allows for people, rather than parties, to do a lot better.

Some are just local leaders protesting hospital closures, nationalists who are to the right of the SNP in Scotland, independent councilors and some are just influential activists who get a lot of personal support against unpopular party incumbents.

Interesting cases include: Sandi Toksvig for Preseli Pembrokshire (Crabb scandal and women's rights reaction), the OTL MP for Ilford North who has fallen out of grace with Cryer's Labour in TTL and Magid Magid for Sheffield Hallam.

 

[iPolytheistic_tsar]

A more proportional voting system, Alternative Vote, is the main reason for it. It allows suspended party MPs from in their place and allows for people, rather than parties, to do a lot better.

Some are just local leaders protesting hospital closures, nationalists who are to the right of the SNP in Scotland, independent councilors and some are just influential activists who get a lot of personal support against unpopular party incumbents.

Interesting cases include: Sandi Toksvig for Preseli Pembrokshire (Crabb scandal and women's rights reaction), the OTL MP for Ilford North who has fallen out of grace with Cryer's Labour in TTL and Magid Magid for Sheffield Hallam.

Neat stuff! When was AV introduced —early Mitchell?

 

[Nevran]

Neat stuff! When was AV introduced —early Mitchell?

Late Jay, in time for 2004 election which also has a fair number of independents elected

 

[Nevran]

Damian Hinds (Conservative) 2020-2023
What is more important than any government or leader is the standards we uphold in public life and faith in our democracy and public administration.
​

Being Prime Minister is hard work, with often little reward, wherein whatever decision you make will be criticized and pulled apart by almost everyone. Much of your decisions and actions will have been pre-determined by the choices made and the inheritance given to you from your predecessor. Any changes will be stymied by a cautious civil service, a hostile media environment and a litany of ambitious underlings. It’s surprising how many people want the job. For Damian Hinds, he didn’t seek out power. When with it, he suffered all the caveats above and had little chance of digging himself out the hole that he was buried in. Yet, he tried, and in politics, that is so often forgotten.

Born in Paddington, Hinds would move to Greater Manchester as a young child, a region which was facing the difficult and painful economic readjustment from industrial to post-industrial. It was the efforts of the 1970-1983 Conservative government to ease the transition, such as the Futuroute (as it was called back then) and the Housing Act which inspired a young Hinds to join the Conservative Party.

With a stable family life and a good education at Saint Ambrose College, a Roman Catholic grammar school, Hinds excelled early on in his life, through his education and was able to get into Trinity College in Oxford, the breeding ground for future politicians.

His first day saw him meet the now-disgraced former MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, who would go on to be one of his closest friends through his life. Despite defeating Mogg for the election to become President of Oxford Union, Hinds would stick close to Mogg. Both men would enter parliament in the same year and Hinds would honour their friendship all the way to the end, with his controversial appointment of Mogg to the House of Lords in his 2023 Resignation Honours.

It was as President of Oxford Union that Hinds got a taste for governing and with his complementing PPE degree, Hinds became an immediate prospective candidate for his party. However, unlike many of his predecessors, Hinds rejected both the political and journalism pathway, instead working in business, specifically the hospitality sector. Spending 8 years working his way up the hotel chains, he would gain an experience of the world away from politics, something which many of his colleagues did not have.

Professional background aside Hinds would soon make the jump into politics. Joining the “Canary Group” in 1998 (named after Canary Wharf, the epitome of Howe’s economic legacy), a Conservative funded pressure group, Hinds would work to develop policy for a party on its knees during the height of Jay’s popularity. It was in this role that Hinds would be introduced to the leading lights of the Conservative Party, through Geoffrey Howe and other luminaries, which would cement him as a rising star on the economic liberal side of the party.

Selected for the safe Conservative seat of Altrincham and Sale West in 2004, Hinds would be unlike his predecessor, and would remain largely loyal and uncontroversial. Marrying his now wife, Jaqui in 2007, Hinds would cut short his victory speech during the Altrincham vote count in 2009, to run to his wife who was giving birth to their first daughter, which became one of the most memorable events of a dramatic night. Appointed immediately to a minor ministerial role in 2009 in the Transport Department, Hinds would see a sustained and steady rise to the top. In this role, Hinds would be instrumental in maintaining government support for HS2, even after Hinds was egged by one of his local constituents at protest of the disruptive construction works between Manchester Airport and Piccadilly.

Hinds would win plaudits and allies in the party for his conscientious manor and driven work, with very little drama following him. People in the party soon began to promote Hinds, including Nick Timothy, a leading Red Tory and Charlotte Leslie a rising star herself (and a Canary Group alumni) in the party. After the expenses scandal cleared the decks, Hinds was promoted up to Secretary of State for Transport.

While he would only serve in this position for less than a year, Hinds would be instrumental in gaining significant private investment for the Euston station expansion (and the underground mega-station of Euston St. Pancras) and would do so above the board, without the corruption which came to mark other such legacy projects (highlighted by Qatargate).

​

When Montgomerie took the crown from Mitchell, Hinds would find himself shuffled to Education and would take up the (ultimately successful charge) to bring back grammar schools. Along with extra funding to religious schools (through a change in tax credit laws and admissions), Hinds would become the figurehead of such unpopular moves. Teacher’s unions attacked the moves, along with a wide section of society fearing the rise of religious schools whether they be Catholic or Muslim, and creating tiers of education, which would mirror the chaos of the early learners’ school system.

Standing firm, working diligently, and being a strong performer in the media whether on the BBC’s Allegra Stratton’s Morning Talk or Fox’s Fraser Nelson’s Interview Hour gave Hinds credibility and respect from Montgomerie and his Conservative spin doctors.

As such, after Stephen Crabb’s embarrassing resignation because of his extra-marital affair, Hinds was quickly invited to join the PM in Number 10. Afterall, Hinds was establishment friendly, socially liberal, but guided by his religion and his morals. Montgomerie liked him as well, which mattered. Hinds thus was both in Montgomerie’s circle and distant enough to not raise internal discontent. Montgomerie offered the position of Home Secretary to Hinds, and Hinds accepted.

As Home Secretary, the so-called “graveyard of politics”, Hinds would outperform expectations. Working closely with George Osborne, then Kate Perrior, Hinds would work to reorganise the Met Police (after the damning Grieve Inquiry into institutional racism in the force) breaking it up into its constituent parts.

He also would help agree the 2019 European Migration Treaty, a landmark cross-EU treaty which allowed nations to put emergency brakes on accepting migrants, increased the funding for the border agency Frontex, split the ‘burden’ of migrants across the bloc, and allowed nations to diverge from Schengen. Such an act was highly controversial, possibly illegal but a political masterstroke, which tackled the public concern around the Iraqi refugee crisis.

Hinds was seen as one of the workhorses behind the agreement, gaining the trust and agreement from all range of figures in Europe, so much so outgoing Commission President Rutte recommended that Hinds be nominated by Montgomerie to join the European Commission. Montgomerie chose to retain him in Westminster, instead sending the euroskeptic Sue-Ellen Fernandes to Brussels, a harbinger of the troubles to come.

And as the troubles came, such goodwill would be necessary to repair European relations. As Home Secretary, Hinds was the only prominent Cabinet Ministers to not be tarred by Black Thursday or Floringate. and while he agreed with the party line, he missed out on the humiliating television appearances.

As things collapsed, Hinds would be invited once again to Number 10 and found an administration on its knees. Simon Clarke, an agoraphobe, who was relatively untested, had resigned as Chancellor to try and take pressure of the PM. Hinds was offered to become Chancellor, for the very same reasons he was offered Home Secretary in 2017.

But by this point, Montgomerie was suffering significant mental and physical health challenges, and when Hinds’ accepted, he de-facto took control of the government’s agenda.

Speeches from Number 11 to reassure the markets, emergency summits in Frankfurt, the release of high interest rate return government bonds and plans to cut back on spending to regain investor confidence, stopped the bleeding. It seemed like a grown-up was back in charge.

Montgomerie, only a week after, announced he too was standing down and would be leaving office as soon as possible, with a leadership election to be scheduled and held before Parliament went into recess on the 22 July.

All eyes turned to Hinds to step up, and reluctantly, he did. Hinds was quickly acclaimed as leader, with no other candidates entering the race. Most his colleagues respected Hinds and many of those who didn’t wanted Montgomerie out as quick as possible (for his sake and for theirs), and all recognized the need for stability in such times.

​

In only a month, Hinds had gone from the graveyard of Westminster politics to Downing Street, a remarkable achievement.

And he had a clear choice, whether to continue the course of withdrawing from the Florinzone begun by Montgomerie, or row back and maintain Britain’s place in the monetary union. The markets had been stabilized after the month of trouble, but confirmation was needed, one way or another. Hinds wanted to turn the page.

In his first speech to the nation, Hinds officially announced that he had junked the planned withdrawal from the Florinzone and instead committed the government to work within and reform the monetary union internally. The Florin was far from perfect, but it deserved more respect than it has been shown in the last month. Euroskeptics, shocked by the market reaction, bitterly shook their heads as they realized that the Florin had trapped Britain in Europe. Most voters, while supportive of the idea of withdrawing found the process was far more painful than they expected and concurred with Hinds, if only to calm the economic storm.

Hinds largely kept Montgomerie’s Cabinet, despite the considerable shake-up seen in the Great Offices of State in the last month. Richard Sharp, a technocrat, and economist was made Chancellor. Nick Timothy, Hinds replacement, remained as Home Secretary. Villiers was the main casualty of the reshuffle, with her reputation tarred, and was replaced by Rory Stewart, a consummate insider, and a balm for European diplomats.

Even if Cabinet was stable, personally, the transition was difficult for Hinds. His wife, Jaqui refused to move from their home in Altrincham wanting to remain a teacher and keep their three children away from Downing Street and in their respective schools. Afterall, no family with school-age children had occupied Downing Street since the 1920s and the pressure would’ve been immense. Hinds would often make the trip back to home on the weekend, sometimes on HS2, where he would often be hassled by members of the public during his commute.

And as Hinds home life was hit by instability, the ripples from Floringate soon crashed on European shores. The Florinzone nations of Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Greece (Southern European Mediterranean States - SEMS) suddenly found themselves hit hard. Having weathered the financial crisis through significant stimulus packages and the lifting of the deficit rules, there had been a long period of macroeconomic stability across Europe. Then came Black Thursday. With the inherent weaknesses exposed in the Florinzone by a rogue actor, investors lost confidence in the whole system. The bond market for Florin-backed economies destabilized and investors seen began asking for ever-higher interest rate returns on bonds.

As liquidity in the bond market dried up across Europe, the crisis hit SEMS nations especially hard, and many found they could no longer fund their expenditures. As such their respective economic and political systems collapsed. As the Christian Democracy political juggernaut splintered in Italy, and the hard-right Spanish government led by Iván Espinosa de los Monteros found itself outflanked by an even further right alternative, it seemed as if Europe was reaching a breaking point.

It was easy (and probably correct) to blame Britain for the crisis but soon cooler heads prevailed, and strategies were developed to deal with the inadvertent fallout. Britain, and other Florinzone nations, were forced into another series of budget cuts to reduce their respective deficits once again, to return confidence in the wider Florinzone.

Sharp was forced to crank up taxes of fuel and graduates, freeze tax thresholds and abandon much of the “New Towns Initiative” to reduce spending. Hinds, in less than a month, soon found any of the original goodwill he came into office with had evaporated. He was now responsible and he was the one who was now blamed.

And then London Bridge fell. Queen Elizabeth, having withdrawn from most public appearances and engagements since 2019, had suffered a period of health challenges in the Autumn of 2020 which all led to an unfortunate but ultimate conclusion. The death of Queen Elizabeth II (followed by Prince Phillip a week later) focused minds and attentions and symbolised the end of an era. An outpouring of public grief, a week of mourning and a poignant and respectful send off for the Queen and Duke of Edinburgh followed. Damian Hinds performed well in this period, not by dominating attention, but by stepping away from the stage for a while. As Britain said goodbye to one, millions saw a sprinkle of hope as a new Queen, Beatrice, ascended to the throne.

​

Even with the times a-changing, so many things remained the same. And so, with this, most people didn’t forget recent political history. The Montgomerie years had muddied the water and left the Conservative Party far more unstable than in almost any point in its past. The tensions, anger, rancour and divisions which had once been sorted out behind closed doors had burst onto the public spotlight. As the party of government, most voters were disgusted by this self-interested behaviour. Looking one at the never-ending scandals, divisions, disfunction with contempt, voters registered their disapproval in opinion polling, focus groups, by-elections and at any opportunity they were given. This trend continued despite the change in leader.

The snap London mayoral election, in the aftermath of Qatargate and Osborne’s resignation, saw the incumbent Conservative team deeply discredited. The Conservatives, choosing former Chancellor Justine Greening as their candidate, soon became embroiled in further allegations of incompetence and corruption, with Greening having been the Chancellor during the disastrous Montgomerie era. As such, Labour ran away with it, finally returning to power in the Capital.

​

Such depressing results were repeated in local elections and seemed to confirm the downward trend faced by Hinds.

Trouble at home and with Europe, did not translate for Hinds across the pond though. Securing a diplomatic masterstroke with the appointment of former Prime Minister Andrew Mitchell as NATO Secretary-General, a crowning achievement for the former PM and the culmination of his life’s work, was thanks to Hinds perseverance and his chummy relationship with America.

Working with President Ben Ray Luján (both men were devout Catholics and enjoyed an unparalleled professional and personal respect for the other), Hinds would push a successful re-negotiation on TATP and work to close the gap between the EU and US on a way forward to mutually beneficial agreements on climate change subsidies and state aid. Such work did a lot to soothe economic troubles in Europe and gave many green industries a shot-in-the-arm, and a powerful victory for the establishment.

The trans-Atlantic relationship would prove critical though in the face of increased Chinese (PRC) aggression. Beginning with trade wars, then destabilization of African nations, the illegal annexation of multiple Yellow Sea islands culminated in the months-long blockade of Taiwan (ROC) and the Fourth Taiwan Straits Crisis. Hinds would send British ships to support American ones, acted as a mediator and to some political difficulty, open immigration, and refugee routes for Hong Kong nationals in the face of such flagrant aggression.

For these tense months, the democratic world seemed to forget its past issues with one another and unite. Hinds would co-ordinate significant economic sanctions on the PRC, organize economic and military aid packages for the ROC and support the coalition of ships getting essential supplies to Taiwan via the counter-blockade.

The tensions continued to ratchet up until on the same week, an American plane was shot down by a PRC AA gun and a ship full of PRC sailors was hit by a missile from the BRP Manong Joe in the Yellow Sea with the Hong Sha Dao Crisis. Both America and China blinked.

​

As the heat lowered internationally, Britain became gripped by a season of protests right in the middle of the hottest summer to date. From climate activists, to striking public servants, to anti-immigration and racist hate groups, the streets were filled with marches and disruption.

Most of these marches were met with active hostility from government benches, especially Home Secretary Nick Timothy (believed to be auditioning for the next Conservative leader), who would use such marches as wedge issues, to win over subsets of the electorate. Hinds would stick to a hard on crime approach and delegate to Timothy.

As the Home Secretary focused on picking fights with the ‘loony left’, it was the far-right which would escalate. Jack Renshaw, a far-right neo-Nazi in the EDL drove into a pro-GLBT march in Liverpool with a hired van, killing 2 and injuring over a hundred people.

The Liverpool Attack has unfortunately been marked as the beginning of the new wave of far-right terrorism. Hinds was personally shocked by the attack and when consoling victims, told the “enemies within”, far-right extremists, that hate would never win. Following the breakup of the Met Police, Hinds redoubled his efforts to reform parts of the police force which were not “fit for purpose”. The Liverpool Attack and the intelligence and operational failures which led to the attack saw an even greater emphasis placed on reforms, with more powers granted to national anti-crime organisations such as MI5 and the NCA, to prevent such attacks.

Hinds, perhaps with his mentality altered by his attack (or the spin doctors who saw an electoral opportunity) pivoted to focus heavily on law and order, stealing Timothy’s thunder. Pushing the “Emergencies Act”, which granted the government and police wide ranging powers to shut down protests, arrest those for disturbing the public order and a series of draconian measures (control orders on protesters, noise complaints, cooling-off periods etc), Hinds would make it a core part of his agenda.

As the election got closer, Hinds would move away from the technocratic governance style which had seemed to be the modus operandi previously, to a more combative government, with a will to fight. Hinds also got an opportunity with Richard Sharp’s retirement as Chancellor, appointing Sam Gyimah as Chancellor, a fellow Canary Group alumni and someone who was more willing to play politics with the budget, by cutting taxes in time for the election.

Yet, even with all these successes, the Conservatives still polled in the doldrums. Holding off an election until the very last possible moment, the 1st of June 2023, was meant to buy Hinds as much time as possible. The crafting of the manifesto was difficult, with the splits in the party making every decision difficult.

But in it, and strongly boosted by key cabinet members such as Nick Timothy, Andrew Neil and Nick Frost, was the pledge to hold an in-out referendum on the Florin in the middle of the next parliament. The official line was the government would support an “in” result after the negotiations begun by Montgomerie and supposedly continued by Hinds were concluded.The pledge was designed to win back UCP voters, rebuild the Montgomerie coalition and keep the inroads that were made in working class seats like Barrow-in-Furness, Bishop Auckland, and Walsall.

It was widely derided as a political stunt, and with all the mood music pointing toward a Tory defeat, the markets chose to skim past it. It made Hinds look weak, as his elevation to PM was caused by the reaction to this exact issue, and something with Hinds had supposed turned the page on. It also caused significant tension with the top cabinet ministers, with Rory Stewart having been left out of the loop and threatening resignation. And it meant Labour could say the Tory’s “were always banging on about Europe”, and brought back memories of Floringate and Black Thursday, which Hinds had wanted to forget.The biggest gamble failed to pay off. And then, it was election day.

As the Leader of the Opposition, who had managed to win over both the left and centrist wings of the party, disarmed Conservative attacks with their natural wit and self-deprecating humour, Hinds found himself without a bogeyman in the way Irranca-Davies and Cryer were. Recycling some of the material which worked so well in 2013 also failed this cycle, with Labour activists (correctly) pointing to the fact that 14 years of Conservative government had done more damage than any Labour government had done or could do.

And when the polls closed, the exit poll predicted a comfortable Labour majority, and as results trickled in, this is what voters returned. As Hinds invited the Leader of the Opposition to meet with Queen Beatrice, the political guard had changed and politics had moved on. Hinds would, however, stay on as Conservative leader until January 2024, leading internal reforms to the party. Tweaking the leadership contest to make the membership vote result consultative rather than solely determining the leader was meant to protect from another populist. Hinds also worked (unsuccessfully) to pave the way for his preferred successor, Charlotte Leslie, to get the top job. He remains a backbench MP in the Commons.

And to conclude, Hinds was probably the right man for the wrong time. Even with there being so little time between his election defeat and present day, most pundits have already placed Hinds above his two predecessors. He might not have been a vote winner, or listened to the right people, or might not even wanted to become Prime Minister, but he left the country in a better place than what he found it. And in light of such a short timescale, and without the effects of hindsight and nostalgia, that simple assertion is a surprisingly hard bar to clear.

 

[Ogrebear]

Hines sounds like he would have been a good, even great PM in much more stable times.

Let’s hope the Kabour PM is able to run a more stable country.

RIP Queen Elizabeth.