My two bits: for a late war German victory some form of naval treaty is extremely likely. For almost everybody this is in their national interest:
The UK will financially likely be in a worse situation than otl, with huge foreign debts, but no reparations or gains to offset it. Not to mention that they may choose to "buy" certain German colonies to square likely German demands for their return with the infeasiblity of a return for Dominion relations (Pacific and Südwest). So a renewed naval race would be extremely problematic.
Germany will have little international debts, but plenty domestic. And of course any victory likely means a shift of focus to land power and the consolidation of the new continental order. Otoh the experience of the blockade will also mean that they will want some degree of naval equality to Britain.
In the US political support will remain limited for a major naval construction program as otl. Given that the only two scenarios for the att great war are a successful neutrality (probable) or a failed short adventurein Europe (unlikely) isolationism might actually even be stronger. So a treaty that acknowledges their position will be welcome.
Japan of course is as otl aware that it can't directly compete with the US in a naval arms race, so a treaty is in their interest too.
France (and if it remains a player at all Russia) likewise are going to shift their focus to the land forces and internal stabilisation. No objections against a treaty that prevents becoming navally completely irrelevant from them.
Austria-Hungary has an interest in becoming Italy's naval equal, but is not really in a position for major naval expansion. So using their status as winner of the war to get that at the round table is obviously attractive.
Due to that Italy is the only Great Power who might fundamentally be opposed, although economically it makes likely even more sense than otl for them.
Now of course this leaves the question how such a treaty will look: UK and US will be the top dogs. imo the Germans will go in demanding equality, but likely relent to a ratio that leaves them second to those two, in a defensible position, say 70-80%. They might instead or in addition be willing to give the RN a temporary further margin by keeping a few 12 inchers around as part of their allotment for an agreed upon replacement cycle while the RN scraps 12 inchers. What they will not accept is equality with anybody else. That likely leaves Japan as a third tier on its own, in a similar position to otl: weaker than the big three but stronger than anybody else.
France, Italy and Austria-Hungary likely will share fourth tier as equals.
The Russians or Ottomans might also manage to get into the treaty, depending how the post war order shakes out, but if they do, I doubt they would get even that fourth tier.