Would Greece really be better off if the megali idea was realized?

Going to the point, assuming Greece realizes the Megali idea, this will bring a massive landmass that it is inhabited mostly by non greek speaking people, and I don't mean turks, but also armenians (smyrna was something about 20% armenian) bulgarians, kurds, etc, while also almost doubling the size of Greece with a land that will take years to fully integrate on their economy.

5859e9c0b527b065618ec9308adb22de.jpg


The impression I have is that assuming Greece realizes their plan, their economy would be weaker by having to deal with the integration, the partisans, and the massive military costs to keep enought people on the army to prevent a Turkish invasion, while also giving a land that might take centuries to be fully considered greek. As such Greece and the overral area on asia minor might end poorer on the long therm.

What do you think?
 
Well... You are actually quite correct - contrary to popular belief.:coldsweat::coldsweat::coldsweat:
Long answer : we need to look at the situation and how this is achieved. Let's say that Mustafa Kemal is killed during the retreat from Syria in 1918. This deprives the Turks of a capable figure to lead them and thus removes at least a serious opponent of the Constantinople government, thus making the movement to resist the treaty of Sevres - at least for the moment - somewhat weaker and more divided. The Greeks on the other hand still disembark on Smyrna, where they set out to consolidate their control over the area that was under their occupation. There will be tension between the Greeks and the Turks, and incidents like the storming of the Turkish barracks in Smyrna and the skirmishes in the countryside will most likely happen ITTl too, but that will be all.

The government at Constantinople will be unable to react decisively during that period, as it is at the mercy of the Allies, but this will not last forever. The continued unrest in eastern Anatolia and the (presumable) lack of a centre of power other than Constantinople probably mean that there is no analogue of the 1920 treaty with the Soviets, who may actually end up attempting to reclaim the territories the Imperial Russian army had conquered in 1915-16. This puts the Soviets closer to the Mediterranean, as well as in a position to push more into Anatolia and the Middle East in the future, if they are successful, and thus threaten Mosul and the oil fields there in the future. If the advance in eastern Anatolia coincides with a more prolonged period of trouble in Syria (Feysal's removal by the French) and Iraq (the revolt against the British), then the Western powers may start reconsidering their position on Turkey and begin supporting said country as a bulwark against the Soviets. Add to that the rivalry between the Italians and the French on the one hand and the British on the other about influence in the area and you get a situation where all three compete for influence in Turkey. This could be used by the Sultan's government to play everyone against each other and extract concessions, as well as support to reestablish control over the centre and the east of Anatolia, a goal which they achieve by 1924.

Greece, meanwhile, would have been kept in check by the British and the French. If there is no escalation following the landing at Smyrna, then the Liberal government can, perhaps, begin demobilisation. This could help it immensely in the 1920 elections, as demobilisation was a key winning point for the opposition. If king Alexander is also not bit by that monkey and thus continues to reign, then Greece is more stable than OTL and one of the main arguments the Allies used to distance themselves from Greece (namely the return of Constantine I) isn't present. Greece would be the scene of low-level competition between the British and the French (the Italians are not in a very good position, due to Albania, the Dodecanese and the controversy of the limits of the Greek and the Italian zones in Asia Minor), something that would force its government to remain more focused on diplomacy and foreign affairs.

Thus, in 1925, we have a Turkey which still remains under Ottoman rule, has managed to reestablish a degree of control over most of Anatolia and has managed to recover many of the large areas that were expected to be the sphere of influence of the various European powers, particularly Italy and France, which actively try to court it. Now, the Turkish government can start considering its position vis-a-vis Greece. They won't be able to employ military means, for obvious reasons; but they most probably support various groups -covertly- in order to undermine the Greek presence in the area (I would call it a Greek analogue of the Troubles). They will also shift their international trade away from Smyrna: this will be largely natural, because Smyrna, the main port of Asia Minor until the early 20th century, is now under the control of a foreign power, but it will also be supported by the government. Antalya would be a good port to replace Smyrna as the main exports and trade hub of Turkey.

As far as Greece is concerned, once the enthusiasm from the "liberation of Ionia" subsides somewhat and the Liberals lose their majority (unless Venizelos goes full dictatorial in all but name), there will be some realisations: namely, that the area is not easily defended and stretches military resources too thin, which in turn forces the government to keep military expenditures at chronically high levels. The area has also lost a large part of its economic potential, as it has lost its connections to the vast hinterland, which Smyrna served as the main trading centre and exports port for. Also, non-Liberal politicians and members of the old elite realise that, like the areas annexed after the Balkan Wars, the region there contains a large number of people who are very supportive of Venizelos, as well as a prosperous and capable elite of local landlords, merchants and bankers, all of whom could threaten tip the balance even further in favour of the Liberals and their leader; this could lead them to begin working with the other groups in the area ( namely the Turks and old local elites that feel threatened by Liberal initiatives such as land reform), something that could work somehow or backfire spectacularly (the lack of a large-scale Greco-Turkish war probably means that there will be no populations exchange like the one in OTL, which means that there will be millions of Muslims and Turks inside Greek territory in general (namely the areas annexed in 1912-1920)). At the same time, the divide between the "Old Greece" and the "New Lands" will be existent here too: the locals may start having grievances about the behaviour of some officials sent by Athens and about the potential lack of opportunities to participate in the local and regional administration, due to imposed barriers which lead to these posts being filled with people from mainland Greece (again, as in the areas that came under Greece's control in 1912-13). All these factors could lead to a protracted period of domestic instability relative weakness.
 
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At the same time, the divide between the "Old Greece" and the "New Lands" will be existent here too: the locals may start having grievances about the behaviour of some officials sent by Athens and about the potential lack of opportunities to participate in the local and regional administration, due to imposed barriers which lead to these posts being filled with people from mainland Greece (again, as in the areas that came under Greece's control in 1912-13). All these factors could lead to a protracted period of domestic instability relative weakness.
Well if Greece eventually ends up taking Constatinople this might help to bridge the divide as the government will be forced to address issues more equitably on both sides of the Hellispont.

Could also be a scenario where Turkey joins the Axis. BUT THAT is extremely difficult.
You could very well potentially see a Communist Turkey instead.

Then again this might drive Greece into the arms of the Axis or may make them a non-aligned power. Either way Italy likely won't want to mess with Megali Greece as it has the makings of being a strong regional power. The axis might try to court Greece into its faction to gain control over the Mediterranean.

Yeah, Greece was cannibalizing their own economy to keep the war going OTL, it is strange to see it expanding even further and somehow getting stronger
Well, in the long-term there would probably be foreign investment/aid coming in to support the Greece. In otl France basically cut off support to Greece which crippled Greece's war effort.
 
Turks and Kurds won’t be much of a problem as Greece would ethnically cleansed the bulk of the Muslim population from it’s territory
 
Well if Greece eventually ends up taking Constatinople this might help to bridge the divide as the government will be forced to address issues more equitably on both sides of the Hellispont.


You could very well potentially see a Communist Turkey instead.

Then again this might drive Greece into the arms of the Axis or may make them a non-aligned power. Either way Italy likely won't want to mess with Megali Greece as it has the makings of being a strong regional power. The axis might try to court Greece into its faction to gain control over the Mediterranean.


Well, in the long-term there would probably be foreign investment/aid coming in to support the Greece. In otl France basically cut off support to Greece which crippled Greece's war effort.
(regarding the first point basically): "Old Greece" means the areas that were the Kingdom of Greece until the Balkan Wars. "New Lands" refer (OTL) to the lands that were annexed after the Balkan Wars and the end of the First World War (because they were almost gained en bloc and were thus all new territories of the country). The distinction was manyfold: in administration, in politics, in population etc. The "Old Greece" was largely homogenous ethnically (and religiously) and was the stronghold of the old political and economic elites (that is, the elites that were in power before the 1910s and the rise of Venizelos and the Liberals). The "New Lands", in contrast, had a mix of various ethnicities and religions and the local Greeks largely supported Venizelos, because it was under his government that Greece had liberated them from the Ottoman Empire. Many other groups in the "New Lands", both social and ethnic ones, such as Turkish and Albanian large landowners, Bulgarian farmers and the Jewish community of Salonica, in reaction, sided with the Liberals' opposition - largely the aforementioned old elites. There were actually many different reasons for this: for example, many workers in Salonica that were organised in the leftist "Federation", a first mass workers' union in Greece , were largely against Venizelos because he wanted Greece to enter the war. The Albanian landowners in western Macedonia were opposed to the ideas of land reform. Many of the more prosperous members of the Jewish community were worried about the potentially increased competition in trade and industry by the Greeks, both local and ones from the "Old Greece" and from abroad, as well as the possibility of the state unfairly supporting the latter in order to sideline them and create a strong national middle class/bourgeoisie in the process of modernising Greece (it can be argued that this last goal - liberal modernisation - was the main goal of Venizelos and the Liberals - after all, irredentism was an important part of liberal ideology at the time, and many things that Venizelos did during that period, as well as in 1928-1930, seem to support this idea) .

All these factors caused considerable unrest in Macedonia during the period of the First World War IOTL. Now, if something similar happened in Asia Minor, it could prove to be very problematic.
 
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IMHO the Megali Idea being realized in itself is practically impossible: Greece was simply too poor, too small, and too weak. If they couldn't do it under the best conditions they were likely ever going to get, I sincerely doubt whether it was possible for a 'Greater Greece' to be created, much less sustained to the present day. What fantasy led Greek leaders to think they could simply "swallow" Turkey -- which was, is, too big for anybody -- I can barely fathom (well, actually I can, but I prefer not to think about it...)
 
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Well, they didn't exactly plan to annex the entirety of Turkey (although in the 1970s the army radio proclaimed sometimes that Greece's natural borders were on the Caucasusx'Dx'D). The Greek government initially only wanted to keep the region that had been given to Greece by Sevres. It was after a series of continued skirmishes and other small - scale clashes that the Venizelos government decided to push for a military solution, but one aimed at pressing the Ottoman government.

Then came the 1920 elections, which led the Allies to start distancing themselves from Greece, while at the same time the Turks were reorganising and gaining in strength. The new Greek government then must have realised that they needed to deal with the government in Ankara. I am not very sure whether this could be achieved through diplomacy, because the latter was decided to reclaim the entirety of Anatolia. But it can be argued that the advance in central Anatolia in 1921 made things worse, because it influenced France and Italy to move closer to Turkey. The British remained somewhat favourably neutral towards Greece, perhaps, among other things, because they hoped that it would really manage to knock out the Ankara government and thus remove the threat of Turkish claims over Mosul but that's it; in any case, their government was unable (or unwilling) to intervene, because of domestic problems and opposition to any hostilities (see for example the Chanak crisis in 1922).

Thus, the offensive of 1921 was not so much a result of chimeric visions (although ambitious designs must have played an important role), but rather of a government realising that a military solution was most probably the last remaining option (bar leaving altogether) to tackle the problem in Asia Minor.
 
Would Constantinople remain an international city, or be part of Greece though?
Well, if the Ottomans remain in power, it will probably continue to be the capital of the Sultanate, thus it will remain under their control (although it will be demilitarised).

If a government like the OTL Ankara one is in control, then it would probably be an international city (a bit like Fiume or Danzig). The Allies could later leave it under LoN oversight, in order to prevent either the British or the French or the Italians from controlling the Bosporus (although Britain would exert more influence). This could lead to bickering between many countries however, as both Greece and Turkey would ask for control of the city and Britain, France and Italy would also intervene in the whole affair by siding with one of the two sides.
 
Well, if the Ottomans remain in power, it will probably continue to be the capital of the Sultanate, thus it will remain under their control (although it will be demilitarised).

If a government like the OTL Ankara one is in control, then it would probably be an international city (a bit like Fiume or Danzig). The Allies could later leave it under LoN oversight, in order to prevent either the British or the French or the Italians from controlling the Bosporus (although Britain would exert more influence). This could lead to bickering between many countries however, as both Greece and Turkey would ask for control of the city and Britain, France and Italy would also intervene in the whole affair by siding with one of the two sides.
Actually, with a Megali Greece, I think the Sultans would be relegated to Ankara.
 

Osman Aga

Banned
Well... You are actually quite correct - contrary to popular belief.:coldsweat::coldsweat::coldsweat:
Long answer : we need to look at the situation and how this is achieved. Let's say that Mustafa Kemal is killed during the retreat from Syria in 1918. This deprives the Turks of a capable figure to lead them and thus removes at least a serious opponent of the Constantinople government, thus making the movement to resist the treaty of Sevres - at least for the moment - somewhat weaker and more divided. The Greeks on the other hand still disembark on Smyrna, where they set out to consolidate their control over the area that was under their occupation. There will be tension between the Greeks and the Turks, and incidents like the storming of the Turkish barracks in Smyrna and the skirmishes in the countryside will most likely happen ITTl too, but that will be all.

The government at Constantinople will be unable to react decisively during that period, as it is at the mercy of the Allies, but this will not last forever. The continued unrest in eastern Anatolia and the (presumable) lack of a centre of power other than Constantinople probably mean that there is no analogue of the 1920 treaty with the Soviets, who may actually end up attempting to reclaim the territories the Imperial Russian army had conquered in 1915-16. This puts the Soviets closer to the Mediterranean, as well as in a position to push more into Anatolia and the Middle East in the future, if they are successful, and thus threaten Mosul and the oil fields there in the future. If the advance in eastern Anatolia coincides with a more prolonged period of trouble in Syria (Feysal's removal by the French) and Iraq (the revolt against the British), then the Western powers may start reconsidering their position on Turkey and begin supporting said country as a bulwark against the Soviets. Add to that the rivalry between the Italians and the French on the one hand and the British on the other about influence in the area and you get a situation where all three compete for influence in Turkey. This could be used by the Sultan's government to play everyone against each other and extract concessions, as well as support to reestablish control over the centre and the east of Anatolia, a goal which they achieve by 1924.

Greece, meanwhile, would have been kept in check by the British and the French. If there is no escalation following the landing at Smyrna, then the Liberal government can, perhaps, begin demobilisation. This could help it immensely in the 1920 elections, as demobilisation was a key winning point for the opposition. If king Alexander is also not bit by that monkey and thus continues to reign, then Greece is more stable than OTL and one of the main arguments the Allies used to distance themselves from Greece (namely the return of Constantine I) isn't present. Greece would be the scene of low-level competition between the British and the French (the Italians are not in a very good position, due to Albania, the Dodecanese and the controversy of the limits of the Greek and the Italian zones in Asia Minor), something that would force its government to remain more focused on diplomacy and foreign affairs.

Thus, in 1925, we have a Turkey which still remains under Ottoman rule, has managed to reestablish a degree of control over most of Anatolia and has managed to recover many of the large areas that were expected to be the sphere of influence of the various European powers, particularly Italy and France, which actively try to court it. Now, the Turkish government can start considering its position vis-a-vis Greece. They won't be able to employ military means, for obvious reasons; but they most probably support various groups -covertly- in order to undermine the Greek presence in the area (I would call it a Greek analogue of the Troubles). They will also shift their international trade away from Smyrna: this will be largely natural, because Smyrna, the main port of Asia Minor until the early 20th century, is now under the control of a foreign power, but it will also be supported by the government. Antalya would be a good port to replace Smyrna as the main exports and trade hub of Turkey.

As far as Greece is concerned, once the enthusiasm from the "liberation of Ionia" subsides somewhat and the Liberals lose their majority (unless Venizelos goes full dictatorial in all but name), there will be some realisations: namely, that the area is not easily defended and stretches military resources too thin, which in turn forces the government to keep military expenditures at chronically high levels. The area has also lost a large part of its economic potential, as it has lost its connections to the vast hinterland, which Smyrna served as the main trading centre and exports port for. Also, non-Liberal politicians and members of the old elite realise that, like the areas annexed after the Balkan Wars, the region there contains a large number of people who are very supportive of Venizelos, as well as a prosperous and capable elite of local landlords, merchants and bankers, all of whom could threaten tip the balance even further in favour of the Liberals and their leader; this could lead them to begin working with the other groups in the area ( namely the Turks and old local elites that feel threatened by Liberal initiatives such as land reform), something that could work somehow or backfire spectacularly (the lack of a large-scale Greco-Turkish war probably means that there will be no populations exchange like the one in OTL, which means that there will be millions of Muslims and Turks inside Greek territory in general (namely the areas annexed in 1912-1920)). At the same time, the divide between the "Old Greece" and the "New Lands" will be existent here too: the locals may start having grievances about the behaviour of some officials sent by Athens and about the potential lack of opportunities to participate in the local and regional administration, due to imposed barriers which lead to these posts being filled with people from mainland Greece (again, as in the areas that came under Greece's control in 1912-13). All these factors could lead to a protracted period of domestic instability relative weakness.

There are more capable figures in the absence of Mustafa Kemal. Ismet Inonu, Fevzi Cakmak and Kazim Karabekir at least.
 

Osman Aga

Banned
Going to the point, assuming Greece realizes the Megali idea, this will bring a massive landmass that it is inhabited mostly by non greek speaking people, and I don't mean turks, but also armenians (smyrna was something about 20% armenian) bulgarians, kurds, etc, while also almost doubling the size of Greece with a land that will take years to fully integrate on their economy.

5859e9c0b527b065618ec9308adb22de.jpg


The impression I have is that assuming Greece realizes their plan, their economy would be weaker by having to deal with the integration, the partisans, and the massive military costs to keep enought people on the army to prevent a Turkish invasion, while also giving a land that might take centuries to be fully considered greek. As such Greece and the overral area on asia minor might end poorer on the long therm.

What do you think?
Theoretically yes, on the long term especially. Practically, Greece is screwed as it also has a surplus of Turkish Muslims and not enough Greek Christians to properly populate all lands. So Greece will be bankrupt most likely (the irony though) as the military needs to supress all Turkish/Muslim insurgency. They need a large standing military incase of a joint Turkish-Bulgarian declaration of War against Greece in the future. Mostly because the Pontic Greeks aren't send to Greek Macedonia and thus no Greek domination in that part. The need of large navy is a must in case of a Soviet threat. If Greece can take a largely non-Greek city like Constantinople, why shouldn't the Soviets make a try?

Also... genocide. A lot of Muslims will be killed which again needs the Army to do it so it needs funding.

But by 2020, you have a Greece in a strategic position, and if lucky, a population of 20 million with at least 80% ethnically Greek.
 
Theoretically yes, on the long term especially. Practically, Greece is screwed as it also has a surplus of Turkish Muslims and not enough Greek Christians to properly populate all lands. So Greece will be bankrupt most likely (the irony though) as the military needs to supress all Turkish/Muslim insurgency. They need a large standing military incase of a joint Turkish-Bulgarian declaration of War against Greece in the future. Mostly because the Pontic Greeks aren't send to Greek Macedonia and thus no Greek domination in that part. The need of large navy is a must in case of a Soviet threat. If Greece can take a largely non-Greek city like Constantinople, why shouldn't the Soviets make a try?

Also... genocide. A lot of Muslims will be killed which again needs the Army to do it so it needs funding.

But by 2020, you have a Greece in a strategic position, and if lucky, a population of 20 million with at least 80% ethnically Greek.
So eventually it will be worthy it? I tough that the damage would be done and Greece always would lag behind otl Greece.
 

Osman Aga

Banned
So eventually it will be worthy it? I tough that the damage would be done and Greece always would lag behind otl Greece.
That depends on if the right figures take over. It can be good, it can be a catastrophe. Assumptions... I assumed the positive side for Greece.
 
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