What if Jeb somehow defeated Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich and won the nomination? How would Jeb have done against Hillary?
WI: Jeb nominated in 2016
- Thread starter darklordoftech
- Start date
Well, with Trump, it's a matter of how he could've gotten out of the race.
Let's say he got a heart attack (he's old and has bad eating habits) during his campaign and thus unable to run. I don't know how well Jeb would do against Hillary, and it'd come down to their debates and on the issues. Probably also on who could be better with points. I'm thinking Jeb might win on a slim margin, though he might follow his brother in losing the popular vote, but winning the electoral.
If Jeb defeated Trump because of Trump's various scandals came to light and other flubs, then it all depends if Trump ran as a third party. If he does not, then I could see Jeb possibly winning like above. If Trump ran as third party, it'd split the GOP vote and Hillary would most likely win.
The last option does have rammifications if Trump tries to form a populist party though it would mean that whatever he did would be scrutinized by both the Dems and GOPs and anything he could be trying to hide would come out into lie.
Jeb might still let the investigation go through on Trump like now if mainly as a way to kinda make sure he doesn't interfere with the GOP machine.
Let's say he got a heart attack (he's old and has bad eating habits) during his campaign and thus unable to run. I don't know how well Jeb would do against Hillary, and it'd come down to their debates and on the issues. Probably also on who could be better with points. I'm thinking Jeb might win on a slim margin, though he might follow his brother in losing the popular vote, but winning the electoral.
If Jeb defeated Trump because of Trump's various scandals came to light and other flubs, then it all depends if Trump ran as a third party. If he does not, then I could see Jeb possibly winning like above. If Trump ran as third party, it'd split the GOP vote and Hillary would most likely win.
The last option does have rammifications if Trump tries to form a populist party though it would mean that whatever he did would be scrutinized by both the Dems and GOPs and anything he could be trying to hide would come out into lie.
Jeb might still let the investigation go through on Trump like now if mainly as a way to kinda make sure he doesn't interfere with the GOP machine.
RousseauX
Donor
he wins the popular vote vs hillary narrowly or basically tie her
his map might be narrower than Trump's though, the Dems might lose Neveda and keep Wisconsin or something. PA is still the swing state to watch for.
NC/FL etc are firmly in the GOP camp
CaliGuy
Banned
Honestly, I could see this going either way. On one hand, Jeb would perform better among Hispanics and moderates; however, on the other hand, the GOP base might not have been as energized had anyone other than Trump been the 2016 GOP Presidential nominee.
Any democratic campaign involving Hillary relying on low Republican turnout seems very optimistic
CaliGuy
Banned
True; however, the GOP base might have still been somewhat less energized without all of the red meat that Trump threw at them.
I feel that it could go either way. On the one hand, Trump appealed to the white working class who have felt they have been left behind. Trump was saying exactly what they wanted to hear. I don't think that Jeb could win them over the way Trump. I would say that Michigan stays for the dems, not sure about the other rust belt states.
Really, I think it comes down to if Jen could bring in more of the minority vote to replace the blue collar he would lose compared to Trump, and I'm not sure he could.
Really, I think it comes down to if Jen could bring in more of the minority vote to replace the blue collar he would lose compared to Trump, and I'm not sure he could.
Regardless of who wins the election, I have a feeling that overall turnout would be pretty low, perhaps below 50%. There would not be much public excitement with both parties nominating relatively bland "dynasty" figures for the presidency.
Ak-84
Banned
Trump achieved double digit reversals in some of the rust belt states he won. Hillarys "popular" vote "win" was achieved by running up the score in heavily populated and super safe Dem states like CA,NY and IL. She also continued the trend of Dems winning a greater share of Texan votes.
Would Jeb do the same.
Would Jeb do the same.
SsgtC
Banned
Depending on who's advising him, he's likely able to do just enough in those states to flip them. Maybe not PA. Jeb probably also does slightly better in TX as he can appeal to the Hispanic vote far better than Trump did. He possibly also narrows Hilary's gap in states like CA, IL, NY, and MA. Not nearly enough to flip those states, but he'd be appealing enough for some to vote for him simply because they can't stand Hillary. Whereas those same voters likely held their noses and voted for her IOTL because they refused to vote for Trump.
FBKampfer
Banned
I think people may have been even more luke-warm over Jeb than Hillary.
I mean Hillary at least had the whole "first woman president" to play off of, but Jeb's entire campaign basically boiled down to "I'm not completely bonkers and I promise I won't try and rock the boat".
But look at what Clinton did OTL. Despite the fact that she had utterly failed to carry any of the energy and enthusiasm from the barely-put-down Bernie Rebellion, she still almost pulled off a win against the most energetic and enthusiastic (if astoundingly mismanaged) campaign machine run by the Republican candidate since Ragen.
The Democratic failure in 2016 was their failure to recognize that this election was about the zeitgeist of their party, and subsequent failure to align themselves with it. A Jeb Bush nomination would be a Republican failure of commensurate scale and magnitude.
I mean Hillary at least had the whole "first woman president" to play off of, but Jeb's entire campaign basically boiled down to "I'm not completely bonkers and I promise I won't try and rock the boat".
But look at what Clinton did OTL. Despite the fact that she had utterly failed to carry any of the energy and enthusiasm from the barely-put-down Bernie Rebellion, she still almost pulled off a win against the most energetic and enthusiastic (if astoundingly mismanaged) campaign machine run by the Republican candidate since Ragen.
The Democratic failure in 2016 was their failure to recognize that this election was about the zeitgeist of their party, and subsequent failure to align themselves with it. A Jeb Bush nomination would be a Republican failure of commensurate scale and magnitude.
Ak-84
Banned
Traditionally candidates campaign for the races down ballot, even in states which they have no hope of winning. Hillary did that. Romney did that. As did Kerry, both Bushes, and Clinton. Trump basically told them to go fuck themselves. Which caused his massive defeats in safe Dem states. If Jeb!, goes the traditional way then he probably closes the gap on the popular vote. OTH, if he goes traditional, he does not see Michigan and Wisconsin as being open, like Trump did in OTL, a strategy for which he was lampooned (like here https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-victory-non-existent/?utm_term=.d8e1ed62182d). And the blue wall holds.
Jeb wins, because at the end of the day, he may be boring as hell, but Pantsuit Dukakis is still the braintrust that lost the Blue Wall to a racist game show host. Against the full might of the GOP that has spent 20 years preparing for this moment, salivating at the thought of destroying her, even with Jeb at the helm, she likely does worse.
Plus, without Trump to alienate them, all the GOP strategists who cut their teeth preparing to prevent Pantsuit from winning the White House will get to work.
I wager it goes like this: "Jeb may be boring, but I hate Clinton".
That said, I fully expect Gary Johnson to pull Ross Perot 92 numbers. Maybe even carry New Mexico, if Jeb pulls enough Latinos away from Hillary. Evan McMullin stays out of the race, so that helps in places like New Hampshire, that split the third party vote.
Plus, without Trump to alienate them, all the GOP strategists who cut their teeth preparing to prevent Pantsuit from winning the White House will get to work.
I wager it goes like this: "Jeb may be boring, but I hate Clinton".
That said, I fully expect Gary Johnson to pull Ross Perot 92 numbers. Maybe even carry New Mexico, if Jeb pulls enough Latinos away from Hillary. Evan McMullin stays out of the race, so that helps in places like New Hampshire, that split the third party vote.