If the foreign intervention aren't willing to put their bodies on the line at the end of day wouldn't a ruthless counter-insurgency campaign succeed by running through the available pool of rebels?
Question for USSR historians: How brutal was the USSR willing to get in that time period?
I feel like the answer that question will answer your question. At the end of the day you can win any counter-insurgency campaign if you are willing to kill any potential counter insurgents.
Note the three conditions I noted where it wouldn't be. Also this ATL would be butterflied so post 1865 meaning by ATL 2017 slavery might not be as taboo.
Until today unless the CSA stopped existing, had a Constitutional Convention or a coup/revolution. Note that ATL 2017 slavery might not be very widespread but it would still exist de jure.
I'd be more willingly to believe that if white flight didn't happen in mass in OTL. I understand state migration is bigger but even the racist stigma of being the "black state" could have long term impact on demographics.
I have a feeling white supremacist are going to fight harder against civil rights in an OTL where a state might go under black control. Butterfly's are large, the white population might even flee into neighboring states not wanting to live under black rule.
I don't have time to fully respond to your post. I will concede that the 100 weapons argument I presented was off. Furthermore you have convinced me that a nuclear winter in the case of a 1962 isn't guaranteed given that Nagasaki didn't produce a firestorm. I appreciate your response in this...
Well once again who exactly is arguing that? Even North Korea with their $1,000 GDP per person economy is industrialized. The question isn't whether they industrialize or not, it's if they can pull a "Meiji." In the American context I'd argue that means that the CSA by ATL 2017 is at least a...
A. The CSA would have a massive amount of war debt to repay.
B. The CSA economy in the beginning would still be a commodity based one making it vulnerable to shocks. To make matters worse a bad depression could make it harder to raise capital.
C. For at least one generation most of the CSA's...
Hence they can be were Mexico is by ATL 2017 is a best case scenario. I don't think many people are saying they would quite become Haiti (although I've seen plausible mini-TL ideas were it is on par with North Korea) but the idea of them even being a .80 or higher on the human development index...
Problem with this is that by the time the CSA leadership wants to really pull a Meiji it might be too late. I don't think its unimaginable to think of ATL 1910 industrialized USA kicking the South's teeth in for instance. Or the CSA going through its own Civil War.
Basically the stability of...