Answering the Call of Lafayette: America Intervenes in the Franco-Prussian War
- Thread starter robertp6165
- Start date
Basically, as for French performance in the 1870 war, they started preparing earlier. Instead of starting their military reforms following the Austro-Prussian War of 1866, they start them after the defeat at Puebla and withdrawal from Mexico in 1862. So their OTL military reform proposals are virtually completed by 1870, instead of being about half finished when war with Prussia breaks out in 1870. They also utilize Herman Haupt, who was a master of organization when it came to the use of military railroads, to assist them in drawing up their mobilization plans. This is what gives them enough staying power to survive until America can intervene.
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]ADDITIONS AND CORRECTIONS TO EARLIER SEGMENTS OF THE TIMELINE
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]August 1862-April 1865—Civil War in Mexico. The withdrawal of French troops from Mexico leaves the Mexicans to resume the civil war between the Conservative and Liberal parties, which begun in 1857 and had ended, temporarily, in January 1861. The poor handling of the intervention crisis by the Juarez administration leads many Mexicans to abandon their support for the Liberal Party. Meanwhile, the withdrawing French, who had allied themselves to the Conservatives during their brief stay in Mexico, leave behind enough military stores that the Conservatives are able to raise another army. And so, in August 1862, the civil war breaks out once again. The Conservative army initially is successful, defeating the Liberal forces outside of Mexico City and forcing the Juarez Government to abandon the capital. Juan Almonte is soon after elected the new President of Mexico by the Conservative party in rigged elections. Juarez sets up his capital in Guanajato, later moving it, at the approach of Conservative forces, north to Monterey. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]In this war, neither side gains much in the way of outside support, the French having washed their hands of the situation in Mexico, and the United States...no longer faced with a threat to the Monroe Doctrine...electing to maintain strict neutrality as well. However, this time around, the Conservatives occupied the city of Vera Cruz...seizing it's customs house, and the duties collected therein...at the outset of the war, thus depriving the Liberals of the means of financing their struggle which they had used in the earlier War of the Reform (1857-1861). With the revenues thus gained, the Conservatives are able to purchase arms abroad which allow them to maintain an effective professional army. The Liberals are unable to match this force, and their campaigns are carried out primarily by guerilla bands, whose vicious raids leave many innocent people dead. But the Conservatives are seldom able to bring these guerilla bands to battle, and for a long time, neither side is able to gain an advantage over the other, and many atrocities are committed on both sides. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]However, after three years of war, the Conservatives besiege and capture Monterey in late 1864, taking Liberal President Benito Juarez in the process. Juarez is executed, by firing squad, shortly thereafter. With Juarez's death, the Liberal war effort collapses within a few months. His successor, Sebastian Lerdo de Tejada, is not able to rally the disparate elements within the Liberal movement around himself in the way Juarez had been able to do, and one by one, the Liberal guerilla bands break up, their leaders fleeing into exile abroad, the soldiery melting back into the population from which they came. By April 1865, only the band operating in Oaxaca State, commanded by Porfirio Diaz, remains active. Conservative forces surprise him in his encampment in the mountains near Oaxaca City on April 15, and exterminate Diaz and his entire band, leaving no survivors. This, abruptly, ends the war. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]July 1863 onward—During the Civil War, the United States Government, in order to increase the amount of money in circulation so as to be able to pay it's war debts, had begun issuing paper currency, called Greenbacks, which were “legal tender notes” not backed by gold, or bank deposits, or government reserves, and bore no interest. They were fiat currency, pure and simple, and usually traded at a value considerably less than gold-backed notes. In the aftermath of the war, there are many in Congress who want to withdraw these notes from circulation and place the United States back on the gold standard. However, President Lincoln is not among them. In July 1863, Lincoln's economic advisor, Henry Charles Carey, in a series of letters to Congressional leaders, argues in favor of maintaining the debt-free, government-issued greenbacks as a means to free America's economy from British capitalists who sought to control America's wealth. He also advocates raising the reserve requirements on private banks to 50%, thus making them less liable to failure. With Lincoln's support, this policy is adopted, and the United States does not return to the gold standard following the Civil War. The economy prospers, with the higher money supply in circulation. As a result, the Grant Administration, when it enters office in 1869, will continue the policy. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]1868 onward—In Brazil, the dramatically shorter War of the Triple Alliance has meant that the Brazilian Army did not expand as much as in OTL, and it has not become heavily politicized as a result of resentment brought on by the war. And, it's political influence is much less than in OTL. Indeed, of the Brazilian armed forces, the Navy has emerged with the highest prestige, given it's pivotal role in the victory at Curupaity which opened the way to final victory in the war...and under Prince Consort Maximilian's influence, the Navy is firmly supportive of the monarchy, and will remain so. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]April 1865 onwards—The victorious Conservatives in Mexico rule, for the next five years, as a military dictatorship under General Juan Almonte. During this time they purge Mexico of the supporters of Liberalism, initiating a “Reign of Terror” in which thousands of people are executed. Among those who lose their lives during this period are Sebastian Lerdo de Tejada and Jose Maria Iglesias, who are captured upon reentering the country from exile and shot. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]July 1870—The Conservatives in Mexico promulgate a new Constitution...the Constitution of 1870...and allow elections again. The new Constitution, of course, does away with most of the Liberal reforms enacted during the Juarez administration, although it does not, as expected, restore property seized from the Catholic Church. Sales of land seized from the Church are declared final, unless the Church can prove any irregularities in the sale in a court of law. However, since the Liberals were never in effective control of the country for very long, relatively few Church properties were actually seized and sold during their time in office. So although the Church...one of the pillars of the Conservative movement...is not completely happy, it does not withdraw its support for the ruling party. The new Constitution also imposes strict property requirements for voting, effective disenfranchising the majority of the population who would normally support Liberal reformers. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]September 1870—In the first elections under the new Mexican Constitution, Miguel Miramon is elected President of Mexico. He will serve a four year term, albeit not entirely peacefully, as on two occasions he has to put down revolts by other Conservative generals. [/FONT]
1873--Due to wartime expenditures being made by the governments of the powers involved in the Franco-Prussian War, plus the more relaxed monetary policy in the United States, the banking firm of Jay Cooke and Company does not collapse in this year. Neither does the Vienna Stock Exchange. The Long Depression, a major financial crisis which began in 1873 and lasted in Europe until the late 1890s and in America until 1879 in OTL, is thereby delayed.
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]July 1873 onward--Following the creation of the U.S. Territory of Dominica, officials of the Grant Administration meet with leaders of the free black community in the United States. The Government encourages the migration of free blacks from the mainland United States to the new Territory, promising to support the early admission of the Territory as a State…the first nearly all-black State in the Union…but without making a firm commitment of Statehood. Nevertheless, many of the black leaders, including such men as Frederick Douglass, are convinced of the administration’s sincerity, and many thousands of free blacks will emigrate to the new Territory over the next couple of decades. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]August 1873 onward--The ATL version of Prince Wilhelm, the 14-year-old son of Crown Prince Frederick of Prussia, has grown up quite differently than his counterpart in OTL. He was thoroughly disillusioned by the defeat of Prussia in the recent war with France. Up until this time, he had taken a great interest in things military, and indeed, had been planning a military career in the event that his father, as was expected, had a long reign prior to Wilhelm‘s own succession to the throne. But the defeat of Prussia…and the fact that Otto von Bismarck is no longer at court to exert influence on him and turn him against his father…causes him to re-think his future plans, and his views come to resemble those of his father, who hates war, and opposes the use of force to unify Germany. Instead of attending military school in Prussia, his parents send him to England, where he studies at Eton and later, Cambridge. His experiences in England will greatly change the young Prince, with drastic consequences for the future. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]September 1874—In elections in Mexico, Juan Almonte...who served as Miramon's Vice President...is elected President. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]May 1875—President Juan Almonte of Mexico is overthrown by a military coup led by General Tomas Mejia. Mejia, who is a full-blooded Indio, fought loyally for the Conservative cause during the Civil War, only to see most of the rest of the Indio population of Mexico stripped of its voting rights by the Constitution of 1870. While he and his family are among the lucky few who own property and thus are eligible to vote, he is nevertheless very dissatisfied with this situation, and upon taking power, he calls a Constitutional Convention to consider amendments to relax these restrictions. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]July 1875—The Mexican Constitutional Convention called by President Tomas Mejia meets in Mexico City. Reluctantly, the delegates relax the property requirements so that a majority of the population of Mexico are enfranchised. However, those owning no property at all are still without a vote. President Mejia calls for new elections to be held in September. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]September 1875—Mexican Elections. Tomas Mejia is elected to a four-year term as President by a narrow margin. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]January 1875 onward--The annexation of Haiti has not been accomplished easily. There was a good deal of armed resistance when U.S. troops moved in to occupy the country, and although such organized or semi-organized military resistance as existed was quickly overcome, a simmering guerilla resistance will continue for years to come. This resistance will provide ammunition to the opponents of the efforts of the Grant Administration to gain early Statehood for the new Territory of Hispaniola, and will, along with other issues, effectively derail those efforts. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]September 1876—King Leopold of Belgium organizes the International African Association, with the cooperation of the leading African explorers and the support of several European governments for the promotion of African exploration and colonization. As more areas of the continent are explored, various European powers will begin making claims on the newly explored regions, igniting a “Scramble for Africa” which will greatly increase tensions between the powers. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]August 1878—A revolt by General Juan Cortina against the government of President Tomas Mejia breaks out in Tamaulipas. Many of the Conservative Generals who are of European descent...who oppose Mejia's extension of the franchise to the majority of the Indio population, join Cortina's rebellion. By the end of August, Mexico is embroiled in a full-scale civil war. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]1879—Henry Morton Stanley is sent to the Congo region by the International African Association, with his expenses defrayed by King Leopold of Belgium. Over the next few years, a series of corrupt treaties with native chiefs will give the Association rights to huge expanses of land in the region, and military posts will be established. The treaties are heavily favorable to Leopold's interests, and in many cases, the native chiefs not only agree to hand over their lands, but also to provide workers for forced labor. Also in this year, the International Congo Society is formed. This group, also under Belgian auspices, focuses on the goal of establishing control of the Congo basin and exploiting its resources. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]1879-1883—In South America, the War of the Pacific is fought as per OTL, with the same results. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]September 1879—In view of the ongoing civil war, Mexican President Tomas Mejia suspends elections. He continues to rule extra-constitutionally, citing wartime emergency powers. This turns many of his erst-while supporters against him. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]January 1880—Rebel forces lead by Juan Cortina take Mexico City. President Mejia is captured and, shortly afterward, executed. Cortina, in victory, does not restore constitutional government or call elections. Instead, a junta of Generals, lead by Cortina, rules Mexico as a military dictatorship for the next twenty-three years. [/FONT]
[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]August 1862-April 1865—Civil War in Mexico. The withdrawal of French troops from Mexico leaves the Mexicans to resume the civil war between the Conservative and Liberal parties, which begun in 1857 and had ended, temporarily, in January 1861. The poor handling of the intervention crisis by the Juarez administration leads many Mexicans to abandon their support for the Liberal Party. Meanwhile, the withdrawing French, who had allied themselves to the Conservatives during their brief stay in Mexico, leave behind enough military stores that the Conservatives are able to raise another army. And so, in August 1862, the civil war breaks out once again. The Conservative army initially is successful, defeating the Liberal forces outside of Mexico City and forcing the Juarez Government to abandon the capital. Juan Almonte is soon after elected the new President of Mexico by the Conservative party in rigged elections. Juarez sets up his capital in Guanajato, later moving it, at the approach of Conservative forces, north to Monterey. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]In this war, neither side gains much in the way of outside support, the French having washed their hands of the situation in Mexico, and the United States...no longer faced with a threat to the Monroe Doctrine...electing to maintain strict neutrality as well. However, this time around, the Conservatives occupied the city of Vera Cruz...seizing it's customs house, and the duties collected therein...at the outset of the war, thus depriving the Liberals of the means of financing their struggle which they had used in the earlier War of the Reform (1857-1861). With the revenues thus gained, the Conservatives are able to purchase arms abroad which allow them to maintain an effective professional army. The Liberals are unable to match this force, and their campaigns are carried out primarily by guerilla bands, whose vicious raids leave many innocent people dead. But the Conservatives are seldom able to bring these guerilla bands to battle, and for a long time, neither side is able to gain an advantage over the other, and many atrocities are committed on both sides. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]However, after three years of war, the Conservatives besiege and capture Monterey in late 1864, taking Liberal President Benito Juarez in the process. Juarez is executed, by firing squad, shortly thereafter. With Juarez's death, the Liberal war effort collapses within a few months. His successor, Sebastian Lerdo de Tejada, is not able to rally the disparate elements within the Liberal movement around himself in the way Juarez had been able to do, and one by one, the Liberal guerilla bands break up, their leaders fleeing into exile abroad, the soldiery melting back into the population from which they came. By April 1865, only the band operating in Oaxaca State, commanded by Porfirio Diaz, remains active. Conservative forces surprise him in his encampment in the mountains near Oaxaca City on April 15, and exterminate Diaz and his entire band, leaving no survivors. This, abruptly, ends the war. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]July 1863 onward—During the Civil War, the United States Government, in order to increase the amount of money in circulation so as to be able to pay it's war debts, had begun issuing paper currency, called Greenbacks, which were “legal tender notes” not backed by gold, or bank deposits, or government reserves, and bore no interest. They were fiat currency, pure and simple, and usually traded at a value considerably less than gold-backed notes. In the aftermath of the war, there are many in Congress who want to withdraw these notes from circulation and place the United States back on the gold standard. However, President Lincoln is not among them. In July 1863, Lincoln's economic advisor, Henry Charles Carey, in a series of letters to Congressional leaders, argues in favor of maintaining the debt-free, government-issued greenbacks as a means to free America's economy from British capitalists who sought to control America's wealth. He also advocates raising the reserve requirements on private banks to 50%, thus making them less liable to failure. With Lincoln's support, this policy is adopted, and the United States does not return to the gold standard following the Civil War. The economy prospers, with the higher money supply in circulation. As a result, the Grant Administration, when it enters office in 1869, will continue the policy. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]1868 onward—In Brazil, the dramatically shorter War of the Triple Alliance has meant that the Brazilian Army did not expand as much as in OTL, and it has not become heavily politicized as a result of resentment brought on by the war. And, it's political influence is much less than in OTL. Indeed, of the Brazilian armed forces, the Navy has emerged with the highest prestige, given it's pivotal role in the victory at Curupaity which opened the way to final victory in the war...and under Prince Consort Maximilian's influence, the Navy is firmly supportive of the monarchy, and will remain so. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]April 1865 onwards—The victorious Conservatives in Mexico rule, for the next five years, as a military dictatorship under General Juan Almonte. During this time they purge Mexico of the supporters of Liberalism, initiating a “Reign of Terror” in which thousands of people are executed. Among those who lose their lives during this period are Sebastian Lerdo de Tejada and Jose Maria Iglesias, who are captured upon reentering the country from exile and shot. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]July 1870—The Conservatives in Mexico promulgate a new Constitution...the Constitution of 1870...and allow elections again. The new Constitution, of course, does away with most of the Liberal reforms enacted during the Juarez administration, although it does not, as expected, restore property seized from the Catholic Church. Sales of land seized from the Church are declared final, unless the Church can prove any irregularities in the sale in a court of law. However, since the Liberals were never in effective control of the country for very long, relatively few Church properties were actually seized and sold during their time in office. So although the Church...one of the pillars of the Conservative movement...is not completely happy, it does not withdraw its support for the ruling party. The new Constitution also imposes strict property requirements for voting, effective disenfranchising the majority of the population who would normally support Liberal reformers. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]September 1870—In the first elections under the new Mexican Constitution, Miguel Miramon is elected President of Mexico. He will serve a four year term, albeit not entirely peacefully, as on two occasions he has to put down revolts by other Conservative generals. [/FONT]
1873--Due to wartime expenditures being made by the governments of the powers involved in the Franco-Prussian War, plus the more relaxed monetary policy in the United States, the banking firm of Jay Cooke and Company does not collapse in this year. Neither does the Vienna Stock Exchange. The Long Depression, a major financial crisis which began in 1873 and lasted in Europe until the late 1890s and in America until 1879 in OTL, is thereby delayed.
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]July 1873 onward--Following the creation of the U.S. Territory of Dominica, officials of the Grant Administration meet with leaders of the free black community in the United States. The Government encourages the migration of free blacks from the mainland United States to the new Territory, promising to support the early admission of the Territory as a State…the first nearly all-black State in the Union…but without making a firm commitment of Statehood. Nevertheless, many of the black leaders, including such men as Frederick Douglass, are convinced of the administration’s sincerity, and many thousands of free blacks will emigrate to the new Territory over the next couple of decades. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]August 1873 onward--The ATL version of Prince Wilhelm, the 14-year-old son of Crown Prince Frederick of Prussia, has grown up quite differently than his counterpart in OTL. He was thoroughly disillusioned by the defeat of Prussia in the recent war with France. Up until this time, he had taken a great interest in things military, and indeed, had been planning a military career in the event that his father, as was expected, had a long reign prior to Wilhelm‘s own succession to the throne. But the defeat of Prussia…and the fact that Otto von Bismarck is no longer at court to exert influence on him and turn him against his father…causes him to re-think his future plans, and his views come to resemble those of his father, who hates war, and opposes the use of force to unify Germany. Instead of attending military school in Prussia, his parents send him to England, where he studies at Eton and later, Cambridge. His experiences in England will greatly change the young Prince, with drastic consequences for the future. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]September 1874—In elections in Mexico, Juan Almonte...who served as Miramon's Vice President...is elected President. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]May 1875—President Juan Almonte of Mexico is overthrown by a military coup led by General Tomas Mejia. Mejia, who is a full-blooded Indio, fought loyally for the Conservative cause during the Civil War, only to see most of the rest of the Indio population of Mexico stripped of its voting rights by the Constitution of 1870. While he and his family are among the lucky few who own property and thus are eligible to vote, he is nevertheless very dissatisfied with this situation, and upon taking power, he calls a Constitutional Convention to consider amendments to relax these restrictions. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]July 1875—The Mexican Constitutional Convention called by President Tomas Mejia meets in Mexico City. Reluctantly, the delegates relax the property requirements so that a majority of the population of Mexico are enfranchised. However, those owning no property at all are still without a vote. President Mejia calls for new elections to be held in September. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]September 1875—Mexican Elections. Tomas Mejia is elected to a four-year term as President by a narrow margin. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]January 1875 onward--The annexation of Haiti has not been accomplished easily. There was a good deal of armed resistance when U.S. troops moved in to occupy the country, and although such organized or semi-organized military resistance as existed was quickly overcome, a simmering guerilla resistance will continue for years to come. This resistance will provide ammunition to the opponents of the efforts of the Grant Administration to gain early Statehood for the new Territory of Hispaniola, and will, along with other issues, effectively derail those efforts. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]September 1876—King Leopold of Belgium organizes the International African Association, with the cooperation of the leading African explorers and the support of several European governments for the promotion of African exploration and colonization. As more areas of the continent are explored, various European powers will begin making claims on the newly explored regions, igniting a “Scramble for Africa” which will greatly increase tensions between the powers. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]August 1878—A revolt by General Juan Cortina against the government of President Tomas Mejia breaks out in Tamaulipas. Many of the Conservative Generals who are of European descent...who oppose Mejia's extension of the franchise to the majority of the Indio population, join Cortina's rebellion. By the end of August, Mexico is embroiled in a full-scale civil war. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]1879—Henry Morton Stanley is sent to the Congo region by the International African Association, with his expenses defrayed by King Leopold of Belgium. Over the next few years, a series of corrupt treaties with native chiefs will give the Association rights to huge expanses of land in the region, and military posts will be established. The treaties are heavily favorable to Leopold's interests, and in many cases, the native chiefs not only agree to hand over their lands, but also to provide workers for forced labor. Also in this year, the International Congo Society is formed. This group, also under Belgian auspices, focuses on the goal of establishing control of the Congo basin and exploiting its resources. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]1879-1883—In South America, the War of the Pacific is fought as per OTL, with the same results. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]September 1879—In view of the ongoing civil war, Mexican President Tomas Mejia suspends elections. He continues to rule extra-constitutionally, citing wartime emergency powers. This turns many of his erst-while supporters against him. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]January 1880—Rebel forces lead by Juan Cortina take Mexico City. President Mejia is captured and, shortly afterward, executed. Cortina, in victory, does not restore constitutional government or call elections. Instead, a junta of Generals, lead by Cortina, rules Mexico as a military dictatorship for the next twenty-three years. [/FONT]
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America in the 19th century usually didn't intervene in Mexican internal wars. And America in the ATL has its hands full with rebels of its own in Haiti and Cuba.
ANSWERING THE CALL OF LAFAYETTE, PART THREE…1881-1890
1881—France occupies Tunisia. Italy, which had hoped to claim the area for itself, is outraged. France also claims the western Congo basin, establishing Brazzaville. In South Africa, the First Boer War is fought. The Boers defeat the British at the Battle of Majuba Hill and other places. The British Government decides to make peace,
1881 onward—The Emperor Pedro II of Brazil opposes slavery, and over the years, various measures have been taken against it. In 1871, the “Free Womb Law” stated that children born to slave women were to be free upon birth, with the masters required to care for them until the age of 8, at which time the owner could either turn them over to the government for compensation, or have the use of their labor until they reached the age of 21. The law of 1871 also freed all government-owned slaves, codified the right of slaves to purchase their own freedom, established an Emancipation Fund to compensate, and thus encourage, owners who emancipated slaves by individual initiative, and mandated a census of slaves in Brazil. But over 700,000 slaves remain in Brazil, and Pedro has seen no easy means to free them.
However, the early end of the Paraguayan War has opened up an opportunity for Pedro to do something about this. Because the war ended so much sooner, Brazil never deeply indebted itself to British bankers in order to finance the war. Pedro now uses this available credit to expand the Emancipation Fund. He also shepherds a law through the Brazilian legislature mandating that all masters must allow their slaves two days each week during which they may hire themselves out to other employers, for wages. All wages thus earned will be paid by the employer into a government-administered emancipation fund for each slave. The government will add to each slaves individual emancipation fund matching funds (taken from the government's Emancipation Fund) for all wages the individual slaves contribute. When the amount in a slave's emancipation fund reaches the market value of a slave as of December 31, 1881, the government will purchase the slave from his owner, compensating said owner with the money in the slave's emancipation fund, which the owner must accept. The slave will then be formally manumitted. By this system, over 2/3 of Brazilian slaves will be manumitted by the end of the decade, and slavery, as an institution, will cease to exist in Brazil by the end of the century.
Although slavery will thus survive longer in Brazil than in OTL, the monarchy will largely avoid the enmity of the slaveholding landowners which it earned by emancipating the slaves without compensation via the Golden Law of OTL. The owners had wanted to transition to free labor anyway, as free labor was less expensive than slave labor, and the 1881 law gives them the ability to do so smoothly, without an abrupt loss of their slave labor force...and loss of crops...which was caused by the OTL Golden Law. The landowners will therefore continue to support the monarchy against the liberals who see it as an outdated institution.
January 1881--Emperor Napoleon IV of France, worried about resurgent Prussian power on his eastern border, signs a treaty of alliance with Emperor Franz Josef of Austria. The pact becomes known as the Paris Treaty.
March 1881--William Starke Rosecrans is sworn in for his second term as President of the United States. Also in this month, Kentucky abolishes slavery.
Also in this month, Tsar Alexander II travels to Berlin to discuss matters relating to the alliance between Russia and Prussia. While he is gone, his secret police discover a plot to assassinate the Tsar upon his return to Russia. The plotters are arrested. When the telegram reaches Berlin informing the Tsar of the discovery of the plot, he considers abandoning his program for the liberalization of Russian government. But, after much consideration, he decides to press on. On March 21, upon his return from Berlin, the Tsar will issue a proclamation creating an elected Parliament, or Duma, for the Russian Empire. The Duma thus created will have limited powers, and the voting system by which it will be elected will be weighted to favor the aristocracy, But over time both the powers allotted to the Duma and the fairness of the method by which its members are elected will be improved by further decrees of Tsar Alexander.
March 1881 onward--Tsar Alexander II, upon hearing of the latest plot against his life, orders his secret police to ferret out the members of the Narodnaya Volya terrorist organization. Over the next three years, hundreds of rank and file members are arrested and exiled to Siberia, while the leaders are hanged. The organization is effectively destroyed. Among those exiled to is Alexander Ulyanov, who is arrested for distributing revolutionary propaganda in St. Petersburg in 1883, and sent to Siberia later that year.
June 1881--Elections are held for the new Russian Duma. The Duma is seated, and begin legislating, later that same month.
1882—Britain occupies Egypt and parts of Somalia. Italy occupies Eritrea.
January 1882--Death of King Wilhelm I of Prussia (due to depression and added stress in his life as a result of the loss in the Franco-Prussian War, he dies a few years earlier than in OTL). He is succeeded by his son, who reigns as King Frederick III.
January 1882-June 1888--Reign of King Frederick III of Prussia. Frederick is, in many ways, the antithesis of his father. While he went to military school and has served in the army successfully in the Second Schleswig War, the Austro-Prussian War, and the Franco-Prussian War, Frederick hates war and has long opposed his father’s policy of unifying Germany by force. His reign will therefore mark a shift in Prussian foreign policy. However, as a former military man, he understands the need for a strong military, and the reforms begun by his father following the end of the Franco-Prussian War will be continued during his reign.
Frederick has also been very much influenced by his British wife, and admires British parliamentary government. He will introduce reforms which will transform Prussia into a liberal constitutional monarchy before the end of his reign, and will also encourage Prussia’s ally, Tsar Alexander II of Russia, as he follows, more hesitantly, in pushing Russia along the same road.
February 1882--King Frederick III of Prussia dismisses Chancellor Otto von Bismarck, who has been an enemy and political opponent of Frederick’s for many years. Instead of following Bismarck's policy of unification of Germany by force under Prussian leadership, Frederick's diplomats will begin working toward a peaceful unification. His efforts are at first rejected by the other rulers of the German States.
April 1882--Debate in the U.S. Congress over the status of the Territory of Hispaniola has continued since the annexation of the Dominican Republic and Haiti during the Grant Administration. The Grant Administration had pushed for early Statehood for the Territory, but was opposed by the Democrats, as well as many Republicans, in Congress, and the issue bogged down in endless, and increasingly vitriolic, debate. The succeeding Rosecrans Administration has chosen not to commit to either side in the debate and the issue has languished throughout Rosecrans’ first term of office.
But, shortly after being sworn in for his second term, Rosecrans is visited by a committee of leaders from Hispaniola, including American émigrés like Frederick Douglass, as well as natives like former Dominican President Buenaventura Baez and Haitian journalist and politician Antenor Firmin. President Rosecrans agrees to meet with them, and a very frank discussion of the prospects for Statehood for Hispaniola takes place. Rosecrans explains the difficulties any such effort would face. First, Rosecrans explains, the ruling of the Supreme Court in the Dred Scott decision, which states that Blacks are not citizens of the United States, has never been overturned. Therefore, without a constitutional amendment…which is extremely unlikely, given conditions within the United States…the black population of the Territory of Hispaniola cannot be counted toward the population total required for Statehood, and black people cannot vote or take part in a Constitutional Convention which would be required for Statehood. Second, the continuing armed resistance against U.S. rule in Western Hispaniola (as the former Haiti is now officially called) is working against the possibility that the U.S. Congress would consider Statehood for Hispaniola. Therefore, Rosecrans explains, the possibility that Hispaniola will be granted Statehood anytime in the foreseeable future is pretty much nil.
Needless to say, the visiting committee of Hispaniolan leaders is not happy when they hear what Rosecrans has to say. But they had been prepared for such a response, and they make a counter-proposal. If Statehood cannot be had, they ask, why not withdraw Territorial Status as well, since Territorial Status implies future Statehood. Instead, treat Hispaniola as a colonial possession of the United States, grant self-administration to the colony as a commonwealth under the jurisdiction of the United States, and grant the people of Hispaniola the right to select their own local officials. This would fulfill, after a fashion, the promise made by the Grant Administration to the leaders of the free black community in the United States, that the newly annexed territory would be a place where free black Americans could go and govern themselves. It would also, they argue, go a long way toward defusing resistance to U.S. rule in the territory.
Rosecrans listens to the proposal, and, impressed by the logic of it, agrees to support it. He will soon afterward introduce a bill into Congress embodying the Hispaniolan proposal.
August 1882--After several months of debate, the U.S. Congress passes the Bill to Clarify the Status and Administration of Hispaniola, which had been introduced by President Rosecrans in April 1882. The bill contains the following key provisions.
1) It withdraws Territorial Status from Hispaniola, and organizes it as a colonial dependency of the United States, in the form of a self-governing commonwealth under the jurisdiction of the United States.
2) The act provides for an elected Governor, and a bi-cameral legislature, one to be elected from Western Hispaniola (the former Haiti) and the other from the former Eastern Hispaniola (the former Dominican Republic). All laws must be passed by both houses.
3) A Supreme Court for Hispaniola, the justices of which are to be selected by the President of the United States and confirmed by both houses of the Hispaniolan Legislature, is also created.
4) The people of Hispaniola, regardless of race, are to be granted the right to vote for their own officials, as well as for a non-voting delegate to the United States Congress. But they will have no right to vote for President of the United States, and none of their voting rights go with them if they leave Hispaniola to live within the United States.
5) Hispaniolans are exempted from service in the United State military. Defense of Hispaniola will be provided by the U.S. military, and Hispaniola will be subject to such taxation as may be laid down by the U.S. Congress in order to cover the cost of this protection.
Of course, in order to gain the support of Republicans in Congress, buried in the legislation are also provisions which are less favorable for the people of Hispaniola, specifically provisions to promote and protect the expansion of American business interests in Hispaniola. In some ways, this will be good for Hispaniola, as it will encourage business investment in the Commonwealth, providing economic opportunity for some which would not otherwise have existed. But it will also prevent the Hispaniolan Legislature from effectively regulating the activities of American businessmen in Hispaniola, which will mean that working conditions in factories and on plantations owned by mainland American businesses will usually be horrid, and poor Hispaniolans will be horribly exploited for the cheap labor they can provide.
Nevertheless, overall, the law is a great improvement over the conditions existing previously in the territory, and it is welcomed by most residents. Elections for governmental officials specified under the new law are to be held in November 1882.
October 1882--The Ottoman Empire, worried about possible renewed Russian expansionism, joins the Paris Treaty Powers. Emperor Napoleon IV sends a military mission to Turkey to train the Ottoman Army in modern military techniques, and begins supplying the Ottomans with modern weapons. The French also give the Ottomans loans which permit them to somewhat modernize their infrastructure and build up their industrial base.
November 1882--Elections in Hispaniola. Frederick Douglass is elected as the first Governor of the Commonwealth of Hispaniola. Also in this year, Jesse Woodson James is elected to the U.S. House of Representatives as a Democrat from Missouri (Because the Civil War ended earlier, Unionist Jayhawkers never raided the James farm, where in OTL they tortured Jesse's stepfather and whipped young Jesse when he tried to interfere. Jesse never joined the Confederate guerillas, as a result. He has lived a law-abiding life, went to law school, and later served in the U.S. Army during the Cuban War. After the war he entered politics in Missouri). Congressman James will support President Rosecrans' policies in Congress.
1883--Prince Pedro Maximilian of Brazil enters the Brazilian Army. He is a popular young officer, and rises quickly though the ranks over the next few years, partly as a result of his ability, and partly as a result of his imperial status.
May 1883—The Vienna Stock Exchange collapses. This sets in motion a chain of events which will result in a major recession in Europe which will last for the next ten years. The United States, due to it's Greenback money policy, is somewhat insulated from the downturn, but still is impacted by a loss of trade as various European countries put up tariff barriers to protect domestic industry during the recession.
One impact of the recession is to encourage the various European countries to accellerate their acquisition of African colonies, the exploitation of whose markets, it is thought, will help to counter the effects of the recession.
1884—Portugal makes a treaty with Britain to block off the Belgian Congo Society's access to the Atlantic. France occupies Guinea.
February 1884—King Frederick III orders the Prussian Diet to appoint a committee, composed of members of all major political parties, who will, with the monarch, draw up a constitution for Prussia. Thus begins a process of negotiations which will last for over half a year, culminating in the issuance of a constitution for Prussia in August 1884.
August 1884--The new Prussian Constitution goes into effect, being signed into law by King Frederick III on August 16, 1884. The constitution guarantees basic civil rights, and allows for democratic election of representatives to the Prussian Diet. Like the British Parliament, which Frederick admires, the Diet will be composed of two houses, one to be composed of noblemen (the Junkers), and the other of commoners, with agreement by both houses necessary to pass legislation. However, unlike it’s British counterpart, the Prussian analog to the House of Lords is composed of only fifty members, and members are to be elected to their seats. The franchise is extended to all male citizens over the age of 25, with those holding a specified amount of property eligible to vote for both Houses of the Diet. Those who hold no property, or less than the specified amount required to vote for both Houses of the Diet, are only eligible to vote for the lower house. Under these rules, the proportion of the population eligible to vote is even higher than that existing in Britain at the time, which is something of which King Frederick is very proud (and which he uses to lovingly poke fun at his English wife throughout the rest of his life). Perhaps most importantly, the constitution curbs the power of the Chancellor and limits the power of the monarch for the first time in Prussian history. The Chancellor is now to be selected by the Diet (although the selection must still be approved by the King), and responsible to it, in a manner similar to the Prime Minister in the British system of government.
August 1884 onward—The adoption of the new Prussian Constitution allows the liberal parties within the Prussian Diet to expand their seats within the body. The lower house of the body will tend to be dominated by a coalition of the German Progress Party, the German People's Party, and the National Liberal Party. The upper house, however, will tend to be much more conservative, with a coalition lead by the Free Conservative Party, which also leads the opposition in the lower house, firmly in control. As a result, legislation is often stalemated by opposition from one or the other of the two houses. In order to get important legislation passed, both factions often turn to King Frederick as an arbitrator and mediator, giving him an unforeseen, but highly important role in the legislative process.
November 1884—Presidential elections in the United States. President Rosecrans declines to run for a third term, and the Democrats nominate Governor Robert Milligan McLane of Maryland for President, while the Republicans nominate Senator James G. Blaine of Maine. In a close election, McLane wins the Presidency.
November 1884-March 1885—The Paris Conference. At the request of Portugal, Emperor Napoleon IV calls a conference, attended by 14 nations, to be held in Paris for the purpose of assigning spheres of influence and settling disputes over territories in Africa. The conference will continue for several months and will resolve several important issues. First, King Leopold of Belgium's acquisition of the Congo region is recognized. Second, general spheres of influence for the various European colonial powers were established. Third, the principle of “effective occupation,” which stated that colonies could only be held if the nation claiming them actually possessed them (i.e. occupied them, flew their flag there, established a colonial administration and police force to govern the colony), is established. Under this principle, the colonial power also was required to make use of the colony economically. If it failed to do these things, another power could legally take over the colony.
1885—Britain occupies Togo, while France occupies Dahomey (both territories were, in OTL, occupied by Germany).
March 1885-March 1889—The Adminstration of President Robert Milligan McLane. President McLane mostly continues the policies of outgoing President Rosecrans, and his term is mainly remembered as a time of general prosperity in the United States. Like Rosecrans, he supports the emigration of free blacks to the Commonwealth of Hispaniola. In one important regard, however, he differs with Rosecrans, and he opens negotiations with the rebels in Cuba, with the aim of eventually granting that island it's independence. In foreign policy, he will continue the policy of relative isolationism which had been pursued by Rosecrans, somewhat more successfully, as he will manage to avoid being involved in a foreign war during his term of office.
1886—Britain occupies Tanganyika; Portugal occupies Namibia (both territories which were colonized by Germany in OTL). Also in this year, a Frenchman named Paul Vieille invents "Poudre B," a smokeless powder made from gelatinized nitrocellulose mixed with ether and alcohol. This removes the last major objection to the use of repeating firearms (namely, the execssive fouling and billowing clouds of smoke produced by black powder), and those armies which still have not converted over to the new weapons will do so within the next few years. The new weapons also make another weapon truly practical...the automatic machine gun. Within a few years of this invention, the armies of the world will convert their weapons to versions firing the new smokeless powder.
March 1886—Australian miner George Harrison discovers the first outcrops of the Witwatersrand gold fields. The Witwatersrand Gold Rush begins shortly thereafter. The importance of possession of African lands is reinforced to European imperialists.
June 1886—Portugal, which has been exploring the territory in between its colonies at Angola and Mozambique since the 1870s, had, at the Paris Conference of 1884-85, presented the Pink Map, which proposed that Portugal be allowed to annex the territory in between the two colonies, thus linking them, Every country at the conference supported Portugal's proposal, except Great Britain, which wanted some of the territory in question for itself to gain a clear route for a proposed Capetown to Cairo railway. The issue was left unresolved by the conference, and Portugal has continued to pursue this agenda, sending troops and other officials into the disputed territory and setting up military posts there. This, along with the Portuguese annexation of Namibia, has dramatically increased tensions between Portugal and Britain. Portugal, knowing it cannot hope to take on Britain alone, begins seeking allies. It finds one in Emperor Napoleon IV of France, who, despite being somewhat of an Anglophile and having married a British princess, has become increasingly irritated by what he views as British encroachment on legitimate French interests in Africa and Asia, especially by the British occupation of Egypt and it's activities in the Nile Valley, which France covets because of it's own plan for a clear route from Dakar to Djibouti, on the Red Sea. “Everywhere we go in Africa,” he fumed privately to his foreign minister, “we step in the feces of the British Lion.” He has also been concerned by the increasingly close relations between Britain and Prussia, whose Anglophile King has even sent his son and successor to be educated in Britain. And so, in June 1886, Portugal formally joins the Paris Treaty.
May 1888—In Brazil, Senator Rodrigo da Silva seeks to take advantage of the absence of Emperor Pedro II (who is away on a visit to Europe) by taking a proposed law abolishing slavery without compensation to the Imperial Regent, Princess Isabel. Isabel, herself, has been dissatisfied by the pace of emancipation as it is occurring under her father's 1881 law, and is inclined to sign it. However, her husband, the Prince-Consort Maximilian, urges her not to act precipitously in her father's absence. Swayed by her husband's arguments, Isabel does not sign the law. There will be no sudden, uncompensated emancipation in Brazil.
June 1888--Death of King Frederick III of Prussia, of throat cancer. He is succeeded by his son, who reigns as King Wilhelm II.
November 1888—Presidential Elections in the United States. President McLane decides not to run for a second term, throwing the field open to new candidates. The Democrats nominate Governor Grover Cleveland of New York, while the Republicans nominate Senator John Sherman of Ohio, a popular reformer who worked with President Rosecrans to break the “Trusts.” Senator Sherman wins the election by a substantial margin.
1889—Ivory Coast is occupied by France. The British and French agree on spheres of influence in the Gold Coast, and along the Gambia and Senegal Rivers.
March 1889—During his reign, King Frederick III of Prussia had been making subtle diplomatic efforts to prepare the various German States for a peaceful unification. The collapse of the North German Confederation following the Franco-Prussian War also caused the collapse of the German Zollverein Customs Union, which has had deleterious economic impacts on all the German States. The loss of the military alliance represented by the former North German Confederation has also left the various German kingdoms, Grand Duchies, Duchies, and Principalities feeling insecure and vulnerable to outside aggression, especially from Austria, which has been throwing its weight around in southern Germany especially since the end of the Franco-Prussian War. Frederick’s diplomacy skillfully played on these factors, and the rulers of the various German States have gradually become more amenable to the idea of a new union, of some sort. In March 1889, King Frederick's successor, Wilhelm II, decides the time is right, and issues a call for a Congress of the rulers of the various German States, to be held in Berlin in one year. The Congress is to discuss the creation of a new German Confederation, on a basis of equality between the rulers of the various states. The call is met with much skepticism, but in the end, Prussian diplomats are able to convince most of the rulers to agree to attend the conference. Austria is not invited.
Also in this month, John Sherman is inaugurated as President of the United States.
March 1889-March 1897—The Administration of President John Sherman. President Sherman has been one of the long-standing opponents of the “Greenback” policy pursued by the U.S. Government since the end of the Civil War, believing that the United States would be better served by going on the gold standard. He begins worknig with Congress to get legislation passed to that end, with no success. He will also successfully conclude negotiations with the Cuban rebels, and see legislation through Congress which grants independence to Cuba. However, he will mostly be remembered as the President who lead the United States into the Great War in 1896.
November 1889—Attempted military coup in Brazil. Since the early 1880s, as the leadership of the Brazilian Army which fought in the War of the Triple Alliance has died off and been replaced by younger officers, dissatisfaction has been growing within the army over the monarchy and it's policies. This has, in part, been caused by the philosophy of Positivism, which has gained much support within the Army, and by other factors such as budget cuts which have been enacted by the Brazilian legislature. In November 1889, a group of Army officers led by General Deodoro Fonseca attempts a coup d'etat. However, they are opposed by the Navy, which remains firmly loyal to the monarchy due to the influence of Prince Consort Maximilian, and by elements within the army itself, who rally around Prince Pedro Maximilian to oppose the rebels. The coup attempt fails, and the rebel officers are rounded up, tried for treason, and executed over the next six months.
1890 onwards--Cotton prices begin a long downward spiral due to new suppliers entering the market and overproduction by planters in the American South. Southern plantation owners begin to see their profits plummet. Their costs, unfortunately for them, cannot decline in synch with their profits, as slaves have to be fed, clothed, and housed even when profits are low.
1890 onwards—In the wake of the failed coup attempt, drastic reforms are carried out within the Brazilian army. The military colleges are purged of professors who teach Positivism, and the army is required to swear an oath of loyalty to the monarchy, with those who refuse being cashiered from the army. Emperor Pedro and his successor, Empress Isabel, also work to address the causes of dissatisfaction within the army, increasing pay and making sure that the army receives modern equipment and new uniforms on a regular basis. Over time, the loyalty of the military to the monarchy is cemented, and the military ceases to be a threat to the government.
January-February 1890—The African Crisis. In this month the government of Great Britain issues an ultimatum to the government of Portugal, demanding that the Portuguese withdraw their troops from the disputed territories in southern Africa. The Portuguese call on their allies in the Paris Treaty for support, and refuses to withdraw their troops. Emperor Napoleon IV supports the Portuguese, as do the other Paris Treaty Powers (albeit less eagerly). Finding itself facing the threat of war with not only Portugal, but with France, Austria, the Ottoman Empire, and possibly the United States (which has, since the end of the Franco-Prussian War, maintained a separate defense treaty with France), and having no firm allies of it's own, Britain withdraws the ultimatum.
March 1890--The Congress of Berlin meets, with the rulers of nearly all the German states in attendance. King Wilhelm II of Prussia proposes the creation of a new German Confederation, along the lines of the former North German Confederation. Like the North German Confederation, the new German Confederation will be a defacto federal state. It will provide for joint defense, joint diplomacy and international relations, and joint economic policy. But there will be some major differences. Unlike its predecessor, the new Confederation will not be under the domination of any single state…instead, each constituent state of the Confederation will be equally represented in the Bundestag of the Confederation, with each having one vote. A majority vote will be necessary to pass legislation. The Presidency of the Confederation will pass, in turn, to each of the rulers of the constituent member states who hold the rank of Grand Duke or King, with the President serving a two year term. Thus, each of the eligible member states can expect to lead the Confederation once every twenty years. The President will have veto power over legislation, however his veto can be over-ridden by a ¾ vote of the members of the Bundestag. The Chancellor of the Confederation will be nominated by the President, but must be approved by the Bundestag. Most of the German States vote to join the Confederation, the primary exception being Bavaria, which objects to the exclusion of Austria (Bavaria has been the object of Austrian diplomatic efforts since the Franco-Prussian War, and has pretty much aligned itself to Austria over the intervening years). King Wilhelm II of Prussia is selected as the first President of the new Confederation.
April-June 1890--The German Crisis. The announcement of the formation of the new German Confederation comes as a shock to Europe. Austria is outraged at having been excluded…again…from the unification of Germany, and begins making threats and mobilizing it’s armed forces. Emperor Napoleon IV of France is also concerned by the potential power and threat that a new German Confederation represents. However, Napoleon has other concerns at the moment as well…in the wake of the African Crisis earlier this year, colonial competition between Britain and France in Africa and Asia is beginning to heat up, and Napoleon is concerned by the very real possibility of conflict with Britain. Therefore, French diplomats work to defuse the situation by pressuring their Austrian allies to back down. In the end, the Austrians do so…not very happily.
August 1890—Great Britain signs a mutual defense treaty with the German Confederation, making it defacto, if not dejure, member of the Triple Alliance Treaty, along with Germany, Italy, and Russia.
1881—France occupies Tunisia. Italy, which had hoped to claim the area for itself, is outraged. France also claims the western Congo basin, establishing Brazzaville. In South Africa, the First Boer War is fought. The Boers defeat the British at the Battle of Majuba Hill and other places. The British Government decides to make peace,
1881 onward—The Emperor Pedro II of Brazil opposes slavery, and over the years, various measures have been taken against it. In 1871, the “Free Womb Law” stated that children born to slave women were to be free upon birth, with the masters required to care for them until the age of 8, at which time the owner could either turn them over to the government for compensation, or have the use of their labor until they reached the age of 21. The law of 1871 also freed all government-owned slaves, codified the right of slaves to purchase their own freedom, established an Emancipation Fund to compensate, and thus encourage, owners who emancipated slaves by individual initiative, and mandated a census of slaves in Brazil. But over 700,000 slaves remain in Brazil, and Pedro has seen no easy means to free them.
However, the early end of the Paraguayan War has opened up an opportunity for Pedro to do something about this. Because the war ended so much sooner, Brazil never deeply indebted itself to British bankers in order to finance the war. Pedro now uses this available credit to expand the Emancipation Fund. He also shepherds a law through the Brazilian legislature mandating that all masters must allow their slaves two days each week during which they may hire themselves out to other employers, for wages. All wages thus earned will be paid by the employer into a government-administered emancipation fund for each slave. The government will add to each slaves individual emancipation fund matching funds (taken from the government's Emancipation Fund) for all wages the individual slaves contribute. When the amount in a slave's emancipation fund reaches the market value of a slave as of December 31, 1881, the government will purchase the slave from his owner, compensating said owner with the money in the slave's emancipation fund, which the owner must accept. The slave will then be formally manumitted. By this system, over 2/3 of Brazilian slaves will be manumitted by the end of the decade, and slavery, as an institution, will cease to exist in Brazil by the end of the century.
Although slavery will thus survive longer in Brazil than in OTL, the monarchy will largely avoid the enmity of the slaveholding landowners which it earned by emancipating the slaves without compensation via the Golden Law of OTL. The owners had wanted to transition to free labor anyway, as free labor was less expensive than slave labor, and the 1881 law gives them the ability to do so smoothly, without an abrupt loss of their slave labor force...and loss of crops...which was caused by the OTL Golden Law. The landowners will therefore continue to support the monarchy against the liberals who see it as an outdated institution.
January 1881--Emperor Napoleon IV of France, worried about resurgent Prussian power on his eastern border, signs a treaty of alliance with Emperor Franz Josef of Austria. The pact becomes known as the Paris Treaty.
March 1881--William Starke Rosecrans is sworn in for his second term as President of the United States. Also in this month, Kentucky abolishes slavery.
Also in this month, Tsar Alexander II travels to Berlin to discuss matters relating to the alliance between Russia and Prussia. While he is gone, his secret police discover a plot to assassinate the Tsar upon his return to Russia. The plotters are arrested. When the telegram reaches Berlin informing the Tsar of the discovery of the plot, he considers abandoning his program for the liberalization of Russian government. But, after much consideration, he decides to press on. On March 21, upon his return from Berlin, the Tsar will issue a proclamation creating an elected Parliament, or Duma, for the Russian Empire. The Duma thus created will have limited powers, and the voting system by which it will be elected will be weighted to favor the aristocracy, But over time both the powers allotted to the Duma and the fairness of the method by which its members are elected will be improved by further decrees of Tsar Alexander.
March 1881 onward--Tsar Alexander II, upon hearing of the latest plot against his life, orders his secret police to ferret out the members of the Narodnaya Volya terrorist organization. Over the next three years, hundreds of rank and file members are arrested and exiled to Siberia, while the leaders are hanged. The organization is effectively destroyed. Among those exiled to is Alexander Ulyanov, who is arrested for distributing revolutionary propaganda in St. Petersburg in 1883, and sent to Siberia later that year.
June 1881--Elections are held for the new Russian Duma. The Duma is seated, and begin legislating, later that same month.
1882—Britain occupies Egypt and parts of Somalia. Italy occupies Eritrea.
January 1882--Death of King Wilhelm I of Prussia (due to depression and added stress in his life as a result of the loss in the Franco-Prussian War, he dies a few years earlier than in OTL). He is succeeded by his son, who reigns as King Frederick III.
January 1882-June 1888--Reign of King Frederick III of Prussia. Frederick is, in many ways, the antithesis of his father. While he went to military school and has served in the army successfully in the Second Schleswig War, the Austro-Prussian War, and the Franco-Prussian War, Frederick hates war and has long opposed his father’s policy of unifying Germany by force. His reign will therefore mark a shift in Prussian foreign policy. However, as a former military man, he understands the need for a strong military, and the reforms begun by his father following the end of the Franco-Prussian War will be continued during his reign.
Frederick has also been very much influenced by his British wife, and admires British parliamentary government. He will introduce reforms which will transform Prussia into a liberal constitutional monarchy before the end of his reign, and will also encourage Prussia’s ally, Tsar Alexander II of Russia, as he follows, more hesitantly, in pushing Russia along the same road.
February 1882--King Frederick III of Prussia dismisses Chancellor Otto von Bismarck, who has been an enemy and political opponent of Frederick’s for many years. Instead of following Bismarck's policy of unification of Germany by force under Prussian leadership, Frederick's diplomats will begin working toward a peaceful unification. His efforts are at first rejected by the other rulers of the German States.
April 1882--Debate in the U.S. Congress over the status of the Territory of Hispaniola has continued since the annexation of the Dominican Republic and Haiti during the Grant Administration. The Grant Administration had pushed for early Statehood for the Territory, but was opposed by the Democrats, as well as many Republicans, in Congress, and the issue bogged down in endless, and increasingly vitriolic, debate. The succeeding Rosecrans Administration has chosen not to commit to either side in the debate and the issue has languished throughout Rosecrans’ first term of office.
But, shortly after being sworn in for his second term, Rosecrans is visited by a committee of leaders from Hispaniola, including American émigrés like Frederick Douglass, as well as natives like former Dominican President Buenaventura Baez and Haitian journalist and politician Antenor Firmin. President Rosecrans agrees to meet with them, and a very frank discussion of the prospects for Statehood for Hispaniola takes place. Rosecrans explains the difficulties any such effort would face. First, Rosecrans explains, the ruling of the Supreme Court in the Dred Scott decision, which states that Blacks are not citizens of the United States, has never been overturned. Therefore, without a constitutional amendment…which is extremely unlikely, given conditions within the United States…the black population of the Territory of Hispaniola cannot be counted toward the population total required for Statehood, and black people cannot vote or take part in a Constitutional Convention which would be required for Statehood. Second, the continuing armed resistance against U.S. rule in Western Hispaniola (as the former Haiti is now officially called) is working against the possibility that the U.S. Congress would consider Statehood for Hispaniola. Therefore, Rosecrans explains, the possibility that Hispaniola will be granted Statehood anytime in the foreseeable future is pretty much nil.
Needless to say, the visiting committee of Hispaniolan leaders is not happy when they hear what Rosecrans has to say. But they had been prepared for such a response, and they make a counter-proposal. If Statehood cannot be had, they ask, why not withdraw Territorial Status as well, since Territorial Status implies future Statehood. Instead, treat Hispaniola as a colonial possession of the United States, grant self-administration to the colony as a commonwealth under the jurisdiction of the United States, and grant the people of Hispaniola the right to select their own local officials. This would fulfill, after a fashion, the promise made by the Grant Administration to the leaders of the free black community in the United States, that the newly annexed territory would be a place where free black Americans could go and govern themselves. It would also, they argue, go a long way toward defusing resistance to U.S. rule in the territory.
Rosecrans listens to the proposal, and, impressed by the logic of it, agrees to support it. He will soon afterward introduce a bill into Congress embodying the Hispaniolan proposal.
August 1882--After several months of debate, the U.S. Congress passes the Bill to Clarify the Status and Administration of Hispaniola, which had been introduced by President Rosecrans in April 1882. The bill contains the following key provisions.
1) It withdraws Territorial Status from Hispaniola, and organizes it as a colonial dependency of the United States, in the form of a self-governing commonwealth under the jurisdiction of the United States.
2) The act provides for an elected Governor, and a bi-cameral legislature, one to be elected from Western Hispaniola (the former Haiti) and the other from the former Eastern Hispaniola (the former Dominican Republic). All laws must be passed by both houses.
3) A Supreme Court for Hispaniola, the justices of which are to be selected by the President of the United States and confirmed by both houses of the Hispaniolan Legislature, is also created.
4) The people of Hispaniola, regardless of race, are to be granted the right to vote for their own officials, as well as for a non-voting delegate to the United States Congress. But they will have no right to vote for President of the United States, and none of their voting rights go with them if they leave Hispaniola to live within the United States.
5) Hispaniolans are exempted from service in the United State military. Defense of Hispaniola will be provided by the U.S. military, and Hispaniola will be subject to such taxation as may be laid down by the U.S. Congress in order to cover the cost of this protection.
Of course, in order to gain the support of Republicans in Congress, buried in the legislation are also provisions which are less favorable for the people of Hispaniola, specifically provisions to promote and protect the expansion of American business interests in Hispaniola. In some ways, this will be good for Hispaniola, as it will encourage business investment in the Commonwealth, providing economic opportunity for some which would not otherwise have existed. But it will also prevent the Hispaniolan Legislature from effectively regulating the activities of American businessmen in Hispaniola, which will mean that working conditions in factories and on plantations owned by mainland American businesses will usually be horrid, and poor Hispaniolans will be horribly exploited for the cheap labor they can provide.
Nevertheless, overall, the law is a great improvement over the conditions existing previously in the territory, and it is welcomed by most residents. Elections for governmental officials specified under the new law are to be held in November 1882.
October 1882--The Ottoman Empire, worried about possible renewed Russian expansionism, joins the Paris Treaty Powers. Emperor Napoleon IV sends a military mission to Turkey to train the Ottoman Army in modern military techniques, and begins supplying the Ottomans with modern weapons. The French also give the Ottomans loans which permit them to somewhat modernize their infrastructure and build up their industrial base.
November 1882--Elections in Hispaniola. Frederick Douglass is elected as the first Governor of the Commonwealth of Hispaniola. Also in this year, Jesse Woodson James is elected to the U.S. House of Representatives as a Democrat from Missouri (Because the Civil War ended earlier, Unionist Jayhawkers never raided the James farm, where in OTL they tortured Jesse's stepfather and whipped young Jesse when he tried to interfere. Jesse never joined the Confederate guerillas, as a result. He has lived a law-abiding life, went to law school, and later served in the U.S. Army during the Cuban War. After the war he entered politics in Missouri). Congressman James will support President Rosecrans' policies in Congress.
1883--Prince Pedro Maximilian of Brazil enters the Brazilian Army. He is a popular young officer, and rises quickly though the ranks over the next few years, partly as a result of his ability, and partly as a result of his imperial status.
May 1883—The Vienna Stock Exchange collapses. This sets in motion a chain of events which will result in a major recession in Europe which will last for the next ten years. The United States, due to it's Greenback money policy, is somewhat insulated from the downturn, but still is impacted by a loss of trade as various European countries put up tariff barriers to protect domestic industry during the recession.
One impact of the recession is to encourage the various European countries to accellerate their acquisition of African colonies, the exploitation of whose markets, it is thought, will help to counter the effects of the recession.
1884—Portugal makes a treaty with Britain to block off the Belgian Congo Society's access to the Atlantic. France occupies Guinea.
February 1884—King Frederick III orders the Prussian Diet to appoint a committee, composed of members of all major political parties, who will, with the monarch, draw up a constitution for Prussia. Thus begins a process of negotiations which will last for over half a year, culminating in the issuance of a constitution for Prussia in August 1884.
August 1884--The new Prussian Constitution goes into effect, being signed into law by King Frederick III on August 16, 1884. The constitution guarantees basic civil rights, and allows for democratic election of representatives to the Prussian Diet. Like the British Parliament, which Frederick admires, the Diet will be composed of two houses, one to be composed of noblemen (the Junkers), and the other of commoners, with agreement by both houses necessary to pass legislation. However, unlike it’s British counterpart, the Prussian analog to the House of Lords is composed of only fifty members, and members are to be elected to their seats. The franchise is extended to all male citizens over the age of 25, with those holding a specified amount of property eligible to vote for both Houses of the Diet. Those who hold no property, or less than the specified amount required to vote for both Houses of the Diet, are only eligible to vote for the lower house. Under these rules, the proportion of the population eligible to vote is even higher than that existing in Britain at the time, which is something of which King Frederick is very proud (and which he uses to lovingly poke fun at his English wife throughout the rest of his life). Perhaps most importantly, the constitution curbs the power of the Chancellor and limits the power of the monarch for the first time in Prussian history. The Chancellor is now to be selected by the Diet (although the selection must still be approved by the King), and responsible to it, in a manner similar to the Prime Minister in the British system of government.
August 1884 onward—The adoption of the new Prussian Constitution allows the liberal parties within the Prussian Diet to expand their seats within the body. The lower house of the body will tend to be dominated by a coalition of the German Progress Party, the German People's Party, and the National Liberal Party. The upper house, however, will tend to be much more conservative, with a coalition lead by the Free Conservative Party, which also leads the opposition in the lower house, firmly in control. As a result, legislation is often stalemated by opposition from one or the other of the two houses. In order to get important legislation passed, both factions often turn to King Frederick as an arbitrator and mediator, giving him an unforeseen, but highly important role in the legislative process.
November 1884—Presidential elections in the United States. President Rosecrans declines to run for a third term, and the Democrats nominate Governor Robert Milligan McLane of Maryland for President, while the Republicans nominate Senator James G. Blaine of Maine. In a close election, McLane wins the Presidency.
November 1884-March 1885—The Paris Conference. At the request of Portugal, Emperor Napoleon IV calls a conference, attended by 14 nations, to be held in Paris for the purpose of assigning spheres of influence and settling disputes over territories in Africa. The conference will continue for several months and will resolve several important issues. First, King Leopold of Belgium's acquisition of the Congo region is recognized. Second, general spheres of influence for the various European colonial powers were established. Third, the principle of “effective occupation,” which stated that colonies could only be held if the nation claiming them actually possessed them (i.e. occupied them, flew their flag there, established a colonial administration and police force to govern the colony), is established. Under this principle, the colonial power also was required to make use of the colony economically. If it failed to do these things, another power could legally take over the colony.
1885—Britain occupies Togo, while France occupies Dahomey (both territories were, in OTL, occupied by Germany).
March 1885-March 1889—The Adminstration of President Robert Milligan McLane. President McLane mostly continues the policies of outgoing President Rosecrans, and his term is mainly remembered as a time of general prosperity in the United States. Like Rosecrans, he supports the emigration of free blacks to the Commonwealth of Hispaniola. In one important regard, however, he differs with Rosecrans, and he opens negotiations with the rebels in Cuba, with the aim of eventually granting that island it's independence. In foreign policy, he will continue the policy of relative isolationism which had been pursued by Rosecrans, somewhat more successfully, as he will manage to avoid being involved in a foreign war during his term of office.
1886—Britain occupies Tanganyika; Portugal occupies Namibia (both territories which were colonized by Germany in OTL). Also in this year, a Frenchman named Paul Vieille invents "Poudre B," a smokeless powder made from gelatinized nitrocellulose mixed with ether and alcohol. This removes the last major objection to the use of repeating firearms (namely, the execssive fouling and billowing clouds of smoke produced by black powder), and those armies which still have not converted over to the new weapons will do so within the next few years. The new weapons also make another weapon truly practical...the automatic machine gun. Within a few years of this invention, the armies of the world will convert their weapons to versions firing the new smokeless powder.
March 1886—Australian miner George Harrison discovers the first outcrops of the Witwatersrand gold fields. The Witwatersrand Gold Rush begins shortly thereafter. The importance of possession of African lands is reinforced to European imperialists.
June 1886—Portugal, which has been exploring the territory in between its colonies at Angola and Mozambique since the 1870s, had, at the Paris Conference of 1884-85, presented the Pink Map, which proposed that Portugal be allowed to annex the territory in between the two colonies, thus linking them, Every country at the conference supported Portugal's proposal, except Great Britain, which wanted some of the territory in question for itself to gain a clear route for a proposed Capetown to Cairo railway. The issue was left unresolved by the conference, and Portugal has continued to pursue this agenda, sending troops and other officials into the disputed territory and setting up military posts there. This, along with the Portuguese annexation of Namibia, has dramatically increased tensions between Portugal and Britain. Portugal, knowing it cannot hope to take on Britain alone, begins seeking allies. It finds one in Emperor Napoleon IV of France, who, despite being somewhat of an Anglophile and having married a British princess, has become increasingly irritated by what he views as British encroachment on legitimate French interests in Africa and Asia, especially by the British occupation of Egypt and it's activities in the Nile Valley, which France covets because of it's own plan for a clear route from Dakar to Djibouti, on the Red Sea. “Everywhere we go in Africa,” he fumed privately to his foreign minister, “we step in the feces of the British Lion.” He has also been concerned by the increasingly close relations between Britain and Prussia, whose Anglophile King has even sent his son and successor to be educated in Britain. And so, in June 1886, Portugal formally joins the Paris Treaty.
May 1888—In Brazil, Senator Rodrigo da Silva seeks to take advantage of the absence of Emperor Pedro II (who is away on a visit to Europe) by taking a proposed law abolishing slavery without compensation to the Imperial Regent, Princess Isabel. Isabel, herself, has been dissatisfied by the pace of emancipation as it is occurring under her father's 1881 law, and is inclined to sign it. However, her husband, the Prince-Consort Maximilian, urges her not to act precipitously in her father's absence. Swayed by her husband's arguments, Isabel does not sign the law. There will be no sudden, uncompensated emancipation in Brazil.
June 1888--Death of King Frederick III of Prussia, of throat cancer. He is succeeded by his son, who reigns as King Wilhelm II.
November 1888—Presidential Elections in the United States. President McLane decides not to run for a second term, throwing the field open to new candidates. The Democrats nominate Governor Grover Cleveland of New York, while the Republicans nominate Senator John Sherman of Ohio, a popular reformer who worked with President Rosecrans to break the “Trusts.” Senator Sherman wins the election by a substantial margin.
1889—Ivory Coast is occupied by France. The British and French agree on spheres of influence in the Gold Coast, and along the Gambia and Senegal Rivers.
March 1889—During his reign, King Frederick III of Prussia had been making subtle diplomatic efforts to prepare the various German States for a peaceful unification. The collapse of the North German Confederation following the Franco-Prussian War also caused the collapse of the German Zollverein Customs Union, which has had deleterious economic impacts on all the German States. The loss of the military alliance represented by the former North German Confederation has also left the various German kingdoms, Grand Duchies, Duchies, and Principalities feeling insecure and vulnerable to outside aggression, especially from Austria, which has been throwing its weight around in southern Germany especially since the end of the Franco-Prussian War. Frederick’s diplomacy skillfully played on these factors, and the rulers of the various German States have gradually become more amenable to the idea of a new union, of some sort. In March 1889, King Frederick's successor, Wilhelm II, decides the time is right, and issues a call for a Congress of the rulers of the various German States, to be held in Berlin in one year. The Congress is to discuss the creation of a new German Confederation, on a basis of equality between the rulers of the various states. The call is met with much skepticism, but in the end, Prussian diplomats are able to convince most of the rulers to agree to attend the conference. Austria is not invited.
Also in this month, John Sherman is inaugurated as President of the United States.
March 1889-March 1897—The Administration of President John Sherman. President Sherman has been one of the long-standing opponents of the “Greenback” policy pursued by the U.S. Government since the end of the Civil War, believing that the United States would be better served by going on the gold standard. He begins worknig with Congress to get legislation passed to that end, with no success. He will also successfully conclude negotiations with the Cuban rebels, and see legislation through Congress which grants independence to Cuba. However, he will mostly be remembered as the President who lead the United States into the Great War in 1896.
November 1889—Attempted military coup in Brazil. Since the early 1880s, as the leadership of the Brazilian Army which fought in the War of the Triple Alliance has died off and been replaced by younger officers, dissatisfaction has been growing within the army over the monarchy and it's policies. This has, in part, been caused by the philosophy of Positivism, which has gained much support within the Army, and by other factors such as budget cuts which have been enacted by the Brazilian legislature. In November 1889, a group of Army officers led by General Deodoro Fonseca attempts a coup d'etat. However, they are opposed by the Navy, which remains firmly loyal to the monarchy due to the influence of Prince Consort Maximilian, and by elements within the army itself, who rally around Prince Pedro Maximilian to oppose the rebels. The coup attempt fails, and the rebel officers are rounded up, tried for treason, and executed over the next six months.
1890 onwards--Cotton prices begin a long downward spiral due to new suppliers entering the market and overproduction by planters in the American South. Southern plantation owners begin to see their profits plummet. Their costs, unfortunately for them, cannot decline in synch with their profits, as slaves have to be fed, clothed, and housed even when profits are low.
1890 onwards—In the wake of the failed coup attempt, drastic reforms are carried out within the Brazilian army. The military colleges are purged of professors who teach Positivism, and the army is required to swear an oath of loyalty to the monarchy, with those who refuse being cashiered from the army. Emperor Pedro and his successor, Empress Isabel, also work to address the causes of dissatisfaction within the army, increasing pay and making sure that the army receives modern equipment and new uniforms on a regular basis. Over time, the loyalty of the military to the monarchy is cemented, and the military ceases to be a threat to the government.
January-February 1890—The African Crisis. In this month the government of Great Britain issues an ultimatum to the government of Portugal, demanding that the Portuguese withdraw their troops from the disputed territories in southern Africa. The Portuguese call on their allies in the Paris Treaty for support, and refuses to withdraw their troops. Emperor Napoleon IV supports the Portuguese, as do the other Paris Treaty Powers (albeit less eagerly). Finding itself facing the threat of war with not only Portugal, but with France, Austria, the Ottoman Empire, and possibly the United States (which has, since the end of the Franco-Prussian War, maintained a separate defense treaty with France), and having no firm allies of it's own, Britain withdraws the ultimatum.
March 1890--The Congress of Berlin meets, with the rulers of nearly all the German states in attendance. King Wilhelm II of Prussia proposes the creation of a new German Confederation, along the lines of the former North German Confederation. Like the North German Confederation, the new German Confederation will be a defacto federal state. It will provide for joint defense, joint diplomacy and international relations, and joint economic policy. But there will be some major differences. Unlike its predecessor, the new Confederation will not be under the domination of any single state…instead, each constituent state of the Confederation will be equally represented in the Bundestag of the Confederation, with each having one vote. A majority vote will be necessary to pass legislation. The Presidency of the Confederation will pass, in turn, to each of the rulers of the constituent member states who hold the rank of Grand Duke or King, with the President serving a two year term. Thus, each of the eligible member states can expect to lead the Confederation once every twenty years. The President will have veto power over legislation, however his veto can be over-ridden by a ¾ vote of the members of the Bundestag. The Chancellor of the Confederation will be nominated by the President, but must be approved by the Bundestag. Most of the German States vote to join the Confederation, the primary exception being Bavaria, which objects to the exclusion of Austria (Bavaria has been the object of Austrian diplomatic efforts since the Franco-Prussian War, and has pretty much aligned itself to Austria over the intervening years). King Wilhelm II of Prussia is selected as the first President of the new Confederation.
April-June 1890--The German Crisis. The announcement of the formation of the new German Confederation comes as a shock to Europe. Austria is outraged at having been excluded…again…from the unification of Germany, and begins making threats and mobilizing it’s armed forces. Emperor Napoleon IV of France is also concerned by the potential power and threat that a new German Confederation represents. However, Napoleon has other concerns at the moment as well…in the wake of the African Crisis earlier this year, colonial competition between Britain and France in Africa and Asia is beginning to heat up, and Napoleon is concerned by the very real possibility of conflict with Britain. Therefore, French diplomats work to defuse the situation by pressuring their Austrian allies to back down. In the end, the Austrians do so…not very happily.
August 1890—Great Britain signs a mutual defense treaty with the German Confederation, making it defacto, if not dejure, member of the Triple Alliance Treaty, along with Germany, Italy, and Russia.
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Very interesting. Commonwealth status for Hispanola seems a nice way out, but I'd have to imagine that Dred Scott will rankle with other groups as well. If nothing else, it may impact immigrant groups by changing parts of the definition of citizenship; though in this regard, the more telling change will be the lack of the OTL 14th Amendment than the prescence of Dred Scott.
It also seems that some of the issues that spawned the Progressive and Populist movements have been muted. The persistence of Greenback monetary policy obviously reverses the policy of OTL and will stop the creation of agriculuralist parties dedicated to bimetalism. The election of John Sherman to the Presidency suggests that trust busting by the US gov't has come earlier and is a more accepted policy of the US Gov't. I do wonder whether all such issues would go away: for example, does the US have an income tax? IIRC the ACW ended early enough that it wasn't need. Perhaps the Great War will introduce a need. Are there any concerns regarding the indirect election of Senators? OTL this stemmed in large measure from Progressive concern about corruption. Similarly, has any equivalent of the Pendleton / Civil Service Act been passed? Lastly, without Reconstruction (and occupation), I imagine the South is much better off economically than OTL. At some point, I'd expect that planter vs backcountry politics (about economic differences) to become more of an issue, particularly since slavery seems to be a mute issue. Perhaps this helps to explain the ATL's bent of US policies, particular the Greenback. Additionally, though, this will mean that Southern states may end up (ironically) with far more powerfull State governments, since there won't be Bourbon Democrats enacting constitutions in reaction to Reconstruction. In particular, if policies such as public education were not associated with Reconstruction in the South, what might their ATL path be? Of course, I recognize that the purpose of the TL is more the foreign policy impact of the Franco-American connection here and the impact on European power struggles.
Also, I had two quibbles: one, in the following sentence you refer to Germany where I think you meant to refer to Prussia.
Two, Cuba should be represented as Independent on the map, right?
It also seems that some of the issues that spawned the Progressive and Populist movements have been muted. The persistence of Greenback monetary policy obviously reverses the policy of OTL and will stop the creation of agriculuralist parties dedicated to bimetalism. The election of John Sherman to the Presidency suggests that trust busting by the US gov't has come earlier and is a more accepted policy of the US Gov't. I do wonder whether all such issues would go away: for example, does the US have an income tax? IIRC the ACW ended early enough that it wasn't need. Perhaps the Great War will introduce a need. Are there any concerns regarding the indirect election of Senators? OTL this stemmed in large measure from Progressive concern about corruption. Similarly, has any equivalent of the Pendleton / Civil Service Act been passed? Lastly, without Reconstruction (and occupation), I imagine the South is much better off economically than OTL. At some point, I'd expect that planter vs backcountry politics (about economic differences) to become more of an issue, particularly since slavery seems to be a mute issue. Perhaps this helps to explain the ATL's bent of US policies, particular the Greenback. Additionally, though, this will mean that Southern states may end up (ironically) with far more powerfull State governments, since there won't be Bourbon Democrats enacting constitutions in reaction to Reconstruction. In particular, if policies such as public education were not associated with Reconstruction in the South, what might their ATL path be? Of course, I recognize that the purpose of the TL is more the foreign policy impact of the Franco-American connection here and the impact on European power struggles.
Also, I had two quibbles: one, in the following sentence you refer to Germany where I think you meant to refer to Prussia.
Two, Cuba should be represented as Independent on the map, right?
realy interesting, but you should look a bit more at Germany.
I have the feeling you lost the German Empire in 1873 and are now realy walking a thin line to get it back.
The Hohenzollern might survive the defeat as a ruling dynasty, but a lot of the smaler dynasties might not.
I expect there will be republican uprisings all around Germany and some might succeed, especially if they get support be political migrant (from '49) who have eturned to Europe with the US troups.
There might even be a "German Republican Army" a volunteer unit during the war (just an idea)
So it is not unlikely to have a couple of Republics in Germany by 1880, who are unlike to join monarchies in a Federation.
Prussian Reforms:
Getting rich commoners to vote for the House of Lords, who are all Nobels is an interesting idea, but for my taste to fantastic.
It will anger the Junkers since it limit their rights, it will anger the Republicans (Liberals and Socialists) who wouldn't want a Nobel House anyway, and I don't think those who are now allowed to vote (upper middle class and "Big Capitalists") for the Upper House wouldn't consider that a big advantage, either.
I can imagine that Friedrich would also adopt the "king in Parliment" idea from Britain, becoming head of Parliament himself.
Rhineland:
Whatever happens to it, does it stay Prussian?
Germans in the US:
They are a lot, but not enough to prevent the War, if the Political Class realy wants it.
German Immigration to the US is likely to come almost to standstill after 1870.
So maybe there are larger German Communities in Argentina or even Australia.
Germany in the world
Obviously no German Colonies and
No German High Sea Fleet
So there isn't a Reason why Prussia and Britain should be very good friends, espesially after Prussia more or less adopts the British parlimentarian system.
Helgoland is going to stay British, since there is no Sansibar to trade for, unless it is given to Germany as gift.
other thoughts on Germany
German Nationalism has seen a big setback
So I could imagine a boost of Anti-semitism.
In OTL the victory over France and the Gold paid by France led to quiete an economic boom.
THis won't happen here.
So there won't be much workers from Poland come to the Ruhr and Silesia to work in the ongoing industries.
This might lead to higher tensions in Poland.
As it looks like there won't be a Kulturkampf and probably no rise of political catholicism.
As for the law against Socialism, it might be passed in 1878 (when Bismark returns) but is probably ending in 1884...
I hope this helps a bit...
Oberdada
I have the feeling you lost the German Empire in 1873 and are now realy walking a thin line to get it back.
The Hohenzollern might survive the defeat as a ruling dynasty, but a lot of the smaler dynasties might not.
I expect there will be republican uprisings all around Germany and some might succeed, especially if they get support be political migrant (from '49) who have eturned to Europe with the US troups.
There might even be a "German Republican Army" a volunteer unit during the war (just an idea)
So it is not unlikely to have a couple of Republics in Germany by 1880, who are unlike to join monarchies in a Federation.
Prussian Reforms:
Getting rich commoners to vote for the House of Lords, who are all Nobels is an interesting idea, but for my taste to fantastic.
It will anger the Junkers since it limit their rights, it will anger the Republicans (Liberals and Socialists) who wouldn't want a Nobel House anyway, and I don't think those who are now allowed to vote (upper middle class and "Big Capitalists") for the Upper House wouldn't consider that a big advantage, either.
I can imagine that Friedrich would also adopt the "king in Parliment" idea from Britain, becoming head of Parliament himself.
Rhineland:
Whatever happens to it, does it stay Prussian?
Germans in the US:
They are a lot, but not enough to prevent the War, if the Political Class realy wants it.
German Immigration to the US is likely to come almost to standstill after 1870.
So maybe there are larger German Communities in Argentina or even Australia.
Germany in the world
Obviously no German Colonies and
No German High Sea Fleet
So there isn't a Reason why Prussia and Britain should be very good friends, espesially after Prussia more or less adopts the British parlimentarian system.
Helgoland is going to stay British, since there is no Sansibar to trade for, unless it is given to Germany as gift.
other thoughts on Germany
German Nationalism has seen a big setback
So I could imagine a boost of Anti-semitism.
In OTL the victory over France and the Gold paid by France led to quiete an economic boom.
THis won't happen here.
So there won't be much workers from Poland come to the Ruhr and Silesia to work in the ongoing industries.
This might lead to higher tensions in Poland.
As it looks like there won't be a Kulturkampf and probably no rise of political catholicism.
As for the law against Socialism, it might be passed in 1878 (when Bismark returns) but is probably ending in 1884...
I hope this helps a bit...
Oberdada
Since Russia and England are allied with Germany or the Federation that is Germany, what will that do their competition in Central and Southern Asia? Russia will not risk war with one of their few allies just to move into Afghanistan and eventually India. Maybe they complete the Trans-Siberian Railroad, with a little help from Germany, and turns their attention to the East. China is still a backwater at this time and Japan is in its early stages of modernization. Also, maybe England joins in and tries to expand into China again.
Nice update Robert, I hope you stick with this timeline up till the Present Day...But yeah Nic asked most of the questions I had about the development of the US Political system with an eariler end to the ACW. However, with a slightly more impearlistic America, might they wan't to get reinvolved with Liberia to help counter British expansion into the Continent? Also why hasn't the issue of Citizenship to free blacks or Native Americans been brought up yet in Congress? Can we get a running list of all the states who have abolished Slavery and what states might get hit hard by the Great War and the Cotton Crisis? But other than that can't wait to see how this develops and Keep it comming
I can't see how it would affect immigrants much more than it did in OTL. It certainly won't affect European immigrants, who are considered "free white people" under the Naturalization Act passed by Congress in the 1790s and still in force at this time during the 19th century. Chinese were already prevented from becoming naturalized citizens by the same Act, which is totally independent of Dred Scott. Who else do you think Dred Scott could impact?
All true.
No income tax. It was never adopted during the Civil War and was unconstitutional anyway (they got away with it during the Civil War as a "war measure," but if they had wanted to retain it in peacetime, they would have had to deal with the Constitutional issue, as indeed was finally done in the early 1900s in OTL.
Possibly.
Nope...there has been no movement toward that.
Rosecrans might have done something like that...it would have been in character for him to do that, given his extreme honesty. The prevailing "spoils system" would have offended him.
true.
I am sure that contributed to the decision to keep the Greenback, along with Lincoln's concern for farmers and other small business men who needed to borrow money at low rates but sell for high prices to pay off their debts. Lincoln in OTL planned to keep the Greenback rather than retiring it, and use it for the purposes stated in the ATL. The gentleman who is shown as Lincoln's economic advisor in the ATL was really his economic advisor in OTL. If Lincoln had not been assassinated, the economic history of the latter 19th century might have been very different.
Probably true.
I am not sure they will go in for public education. In most cases, they would consider that it was not needed. Literacy in the antebellum South was quite high, contrary to popular belief. The 1850 and 1850 Census found that better than 90% of white Southerners were literate. This was all achieved through a system of local community education, paid for at the local level by the parents whose children needed the education (in other words, a group of parents would hire a teacher to set up a school in their community, who would be paid from joint contributions by the parents. I have numerous mentions of such things in diaries my ancestors left behind, for example). So the State legislatures might not see the need for public outlay for education below the college level.
Well, not necessarily...those are just the parts I have finished first. I expect I will go back and do additions and corrections on the other domestic issues.
Well, I was thinking that the German Confederation would inherit those alliances from Prussia.
Not yet. The map is as of 1890. Cuban independence will occur later on in the term of President Sherman.
I thought perhaps Baden and Wurtemburg (sic) would stay out of the Federation alongside Bavaria. In any case, it would be awesome to see Bavaria become a direct state within Austria-Hungary, the added German population could boost it's long term viability...
LOL Not so much that. It's just that in my last several timelines, if the Franco Prussian War went differently, I ended up with a Germany split between a North German Confederation dominated by Prussia, and a Sud-Deutsche Bund dominated by Austria. I wanted to do something different this time.
Well, there may indeed have been revolutions in some of the smaller states. However, I don't think they would have been allowed to succeed. Napoleon III is not especially interested in seeing republican governments arise in Germany that might inspire revolution among his own people. Neither is Austria, or Russia, for that matter. The United States might theoretically support such a thing, but the U.S. never planned on getting permanently involved in European politics...it is going home after the war, and the conservative European governments surrounding Germany are staying. So while they might be temporarily successful, I think that the Prussians, Austrians, and possibly even the French, would move in to put them down pretty quickly.
Yes, I agree that it is perhaps not the most likely scenario. But I was looking for a compromise that would allow the Junkers and the Liberals and the Socialists to agree on a constitution at all. And that seemed, to me, to be the best compromise. I am assuming that there are enough "centrists" around on both sides to make it work, or at least to get it past the die-hard reactionaries and radicals.
Quite possibly.
Yes. The only territorial changes from OTL is that France got to absorb Luxembourg, and Prussia had to rescind its annexation of the former member states of the North German Confederation. Any territory which was Prussian as of the treaty which ended the Austro-Prussian War in 1866 (i.e. Hanover and any other territories annexed as a result of the Austro-Prussian War)would remain Prussian.
That may well be.
All true.
All very true. I should probably think about these issues and write up an additions and corrections which addresses them.
That's an interesting question. Russia and England are both allied to Germany, but neither is, technically, allied to each other. But then again, its basically the same situation which prevailed in the Triple Entente in OTL. Russia and Britain were defacto allies by virtue of both being allied to France, and fought on the same side, despite their colonial differences.
Well, that assumes they care about British expansion in Africa, which they really don't. Britain isn't really seen as a major enemy in this TL, at least not yet.
It may have been, by representatives of the new Liberty Party spoken of in Part Two. But they have so little influence in Congress that they have no chance of getting anything passed. In the ATL, a lot of the things that lead white people in the North to reconsider their views on the worthiness of blacks for citizenship, never happened.
The Emancipation Proclamation was never issued. Black men never served in the Union armies during the war, and they haven't been allowed to serve in the Indian Wars, the Franco-Prussian War, or the Spanish War.
Remember, in the years prior to the Civil War, the North was actually REGRESSING on that issue, with most states which had previously granted citizenship to free blacks revoking it during the 1830s, 1840s and 1850s, and many of them passing legislation banning any free blacks from even entering their States. There had to be some major contribution by blacks which was enough to convince the majority of white Northerners...who were at least as racist as white Southerners at that time...that free blacks were worthy of citizenship.
In OTL it was really the service of blacks in the Union armies during the Civil War that lead the majority of white Northerners to come to that conclusion. Since that never happened in the ATL, the path to black citizenship in the United States is going to be a difficult one indeed.
But in the long term, would Bavaria benefit more from being absorbed by Austria, where it would be under Hapsburg rule, or from membership in the German Confederation, where the King of Bavaria would be allowed to actually lead the Confederation once every 20 years?