Its interesting how the Spanish seem to have produced an almost a post-decision rationalisation - origionally the King ordered this out of vengeance for his son (if I recall), now it is some sort of justified pre-emptive attack. Discussion has typically accounted for Arles and the Accord, but Spain ignores that in their assumptions on Roman foreign policy. Anyone would think that the German invasion was the Roman invasion of Germany? I'm finding it fascinating how you've managed to write this sort of subconscious pro-latin bias into the Spanish who collectively ignored the Germans actions, instead only focusing on the retaliation by the Romans. The Romans see themselves as put-upon and only retaliating to the Germans, but to others seem arrogant. The Romans are in the wake of being invaded by two sides by their biggest neighbours and their allies, but instead the Spanish are complaining that the Romans aren't bankrupting themselves to assist against the Triunes?
Bizarrely, this sort of action gives the Romans the space to take N.Italy. The Accord is dangerous mostly because of Spain, who has already attacked the Romans. Tolerating that more that justifies the Romans doing what they will to conclude a defensive war. If Arles goes against that action, the Romans can ask why they tolerated the Spanish invasions in the East against their ally of literal centuries over the idea that the Romans would inevitably invade Arles, when they've been allies, it should be repeated, for centuries - by the Spanish justifications then Arles is about to be conquered by Spain - according to their own neurotic justifications for this invasion! I think it'd be really interesting to see the Arles response to the Spanish in this case, as it may well decide if the Accord exists to resist the Triunes, the Romans, both, or as the sphere of influence of the Spanish? The other members too.
I do like the imagery of a Europe split between the Romans and Russias in the East, the Spanish and Accord in the West, and the Triunes in this sort of Middle-North, with the EofN in the North.
Instead of the potential of a Mediterranean controlled by allied powers (excluding the Marinids of North Africa) they're rationalising themselves into long-term conflicts with the Romans. It makes you wonder what potential there is for Roman-Marinid co-operation. I'd be curious to know if the Marinids would rather work with the Romans against Spain, over staying neutral. Heck, maybe they'd side with Spain against the Romans!
Aaaaah, so much to think about, so many consequences! *brain melts*
Sad times regarding the New World, but it also makes sense with this position in Spain.