The Union Forever: A TL

IEF Civil War: Apr - Nov 2003
A Desert Called Peace
The IEF Civil War
April – November 2003

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Conservative bombardment of St. Petersburg​

The Ukraine

As spring melted the winter snows, fighting intensified as the Conservatives attempted to isolate and destroy stubborn pockets of Reformer resistance. An attempt in late April to finish the siege of Kiev caused heavy Conservative casualties but managed only to reduce the Reformers’ perimeter. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians fled the slaughter into neighboring Romania, Hungary, and Slovakia further straining the already taxed system of refugee camps. During the fighting, the Conservatives attempted to plant crops in order to alieve the ongoing food shortages in the IEF but results fell far short of expectations. By late summer, nearly all major Ukrainian cities had fallen to Marshal Volkov’s forces. Kiev finally capitulated on September 13 when the Conservatives captured the former Orthodox Council headquarters complex that the Reformers had turned into their last redoubt. Despite the loss of Kiev, scattered Reformer partisans continued the struggle in rural districts while sabotage was not uncommon in urban areas.

Central Asia

As fighting continued in the Ukraine, Kuznetsov’s Conservative government diverted forces to advance on their former Central Asian territories, a front that had been largely quiet since the Conservatives withdrawal in the spring of 2001. With two years to prepare, the Democratic Union of Turkic Republics, with the support of Turkey and Persia, was able to mount a serious defense of its territory. Although the Conservatives had a large numerical advantage in cataphracts and aircraft, it proved to be painfully slow going. After months of brutal fighting, the Conservatives had captured a swath of territory in norther Kazahkiya where there were still a sizable number of ethnic Russians and the Pavlodar coalfields. Near the northern shores of the Caspian Sea, the Conservatives secured the Tengiz and Karachaganak gas and oil fields. They also managed to retake their main spaceport, the Empress Elizabeth II Cosmodrome, near Makat that had surprisingly suffered only minor damage. Attempts to push further into Central Asia however failed due to stiffening Turkic resistance and the need of Conservative forces on the Western Front.

Battle of St. Petersburg

With winter approaching, Kuznetsov and the Conservative leadership convened another war council in Moscow. It was clear to most that the war needed to be brought to a swift conclusion. Near famine conditions persisted throughout much of the IEF and the government was bankrupt. Understanding that Pasternak’s government in St. Petersburg would have to be destroyed before a satisfactory settlement could be reached, the Conservatives agreed for a final push to retake the imperial capital. Gathering all available forces that were not tied down in the Ukraine, Central Asia, or Caucasus fronts, Operation Konechnyy began on October 28. The fighting proved to be especially fierce, but the end result was never in doubt. With the Conservatives approaching the edge of the city, Pastenak and several other government ministers boarded a small jet and fled, first to Norway ,then the United Kingdom, and finally to Brazil where they were granted asylum. On November 22, the last Reformer defenders in the city surrendered. Two days later, Emperor Alexander IV delivered a televised address from the battered Winter Palace declaring that the “unlawful, unpatriotic, and unchristian insurrection” had been put down.
 
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Is this really a victory for the Conservatives? Pasternack and most of the high ranking ministers left the country with probably countless documents, the western half of Russia is wrecked, the rational thinking population outright hates them, there is a low key Reformist insurgency in Ukraine, they lost Poland, Finland, the Baltic countries to the AES and Germany, and possibly Central Asia as well to Turkey, a Technocratic uprising in Manchuria encouraged by Beijing, and now are flat broke and politically weak. Sounds like a very heavy Pyrrhic victory to me.

The entire western world will be looking at the situation in Russia with incredible unease, especially with Beijing and its allies making their moves.
 
Like RW said, this looks pretty much Pyrrhic victory. Famines, insurgies and coming wars against Central Asia and Technates. And hardly possible future atrocities against minorities make things any easier. Shit will fly soon to Kuznetsov's fans and this might turn even uglier.
 
Well, it is over. Russia has likely lost Poland, the Baltics, and Finland, but they are victorious.
Perhaps the Technate takes advantage and declares war?

Declaration of war by China would be quiet suicidal act. Russia has probably bigger nuclear arsenal and more experienced and probably better army too. And Technates haven't too many friends around the world. More plausible is that there will be some proxy war in Manchuria.
 
Geneva Accords: Dec 2003
The Geneva Accords
December 2003

With the collapse of the Reformer government, the long stalled peace negotiations in Geneva finally made progress. Some Conservative hardliners wished to resume the fighting to recapture all of the lost territory but after nearly four years of conflict, the Conservatives simply did not have the strength to continue. Kuznetsov and his government were desperate for financial support and the people of the IEF faced starvation if large shipments of food did not arrive. Over several weeks in December, at a speed that amazed many observers, an agreement was hammered out between the various powers. Some of the chief terms included...

· A ceasefire between the Conservatives, Reformers, and various separatist groups would go into effect January 1, 2004.

· Reformer and separatist combatants and refuges who took an oath of loyalty to the IEF would be granted amnesty and allowed to return to their homes.

· Kuznetsov’s Regime would be recognized as the legitimate government of the IEF.

· All IEF assets frozen during the war would be unfrozen.

· All sanctions and embargoes against Kuznetsov’s government would be lifted.

· An international aid package of food and medical supplies worth $85,000,000,000 would be supplied to needed areas of the IEF and the newly independent states over the next four years.

· Reformer nuclear weapons and vessels that had defected to other nations would be returned to the IEF.

· Refugees who could not return to their homes would be allowed to settle in nations willing to allow immigration.

· To oversee the peaceful implementation of this agreement a Fellowship of Nations was to be established in Geneva. This organization was to be a formal continuation of the annual international summits that had met there during the civil war.

The most controversial article involved the twelve new nations that had been carved out of the IEF. While most foreign nations agreed that they had in effect achieved their independence, Kusnetsov’s government refused to grant them all recognition on account of a myriad of territorial, legal, and other disputes. In the end, the various powers agreed that the new nations and Kuznetsov’s government would “peacefully resolve their differences at a later time.” Unsurprisingly this agreement, known as the Geneva Accords, failed to satisfy everyone but it did preserve a rocky peace and allow much needed supplies to start reaching the beleaguered people of Eurasia.


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Chechnya will have difficult times with its large Osset and other Caucasian minorities.

Might be that conservative Motherland Party might officially change name of the country as Empire of Russia, altough Ukraine might have some autonomy.

Anyway, who is grand duke of Lithuania or is its throne empty?
 
Poor Manchuria.

Also, how long until brushfire wars in the Caucasus? I remember that one line about Turkey redressing its borders.

Out of all the powers, Germany came out of this in the best position. Gained five new allies and a buffer between them and the IEF

At least 6. Romania is now in the German camp as well. I think Greece was neutral and Serbia and Bulgaria were loyal.

There might be more that gravitate in that direction.
 
A very interesting end to the overall Russian Civil War. Sadly, much like OTL Russia doesn't look like it's about to become as liberal as the rest of Europe anytime soon. I had many high hopes due to Nicholas's less autocratic approach around the Great War, but Russia will always continue to dominate the IEF, and whatever Russia wants then Russia gets. If there are any bright sides to this though, it's that many of the ethnic minorities get to be independent and receive their own nation. Germany comes out in the best spot by now being the largest and strongest economy in Europe, while expanding its alliance with five states. Anti-German sentiment will flare up with Russia unfortunately. As of right now I can see the Caucus states going to either Germany or the Turin Pact's camp so that way they can be protected from Russia and its neighbors like Turkey. Maybe Kurdistan and Iran will start to get heavily involved. Unfortunately it looks as though Central Asia, and definitely Manchuria will become puppets of the Chinese Technonazis. I think Central Asia would be more resistant due to its highly devout Muslim population, but it looks like they'll be caught in a Cold War between the IEF and China.

Back towards the IEF, I'm starting to predict that maybe this may be the beginning of true fascism ITTL. While the Conservatives did win, they lost many stretches of territory, have a huge population issue with 1/3rd of its people being casualties of the war, and has taken a large dump economically. The good news for them is that the heavy oil and resource regions are still in its borders. In the future, I could see an ultranationalist Pan-Slavic movement rising in IEF politics that is based on revanchism and making the IEF into a superpower. The leader of this movement could be a Putin-esque politician who will soon turn the IEF into an authoritarian state based on far-right principles, in the name of challenging the technocrats. At least unlike Nazism and Communism, these Ultranationalists goals will probably just be domestic order and regaining their borders, but it might lead to a third world war with Germany or China. The worst part of this is the crap ton of ethnic and racial conflict incoming. The Conservatives will most likely blame the Jews for being key supporters of the reformers and for the economic situation. Ukrainians and Belorussians will be seen as traitors to the Slavic cause. The Baltics, Finns, and Poles will be seen as stabbing them in the back by aligning with Germany. Caucus and Central Asians people will be looked on as terrorist scum. And the Manchurians will be seen as Technonazi collaborators. All in all making for a very dark IEF in the future. But then again maybe Mac Gregor won't do this. Who knows?

What is the U.S's current political makeup? We haven't gone over them in months, and in my mind the Democrats would lose heavily in the next election for Zaal's failure in the Russian Civil War, and his sluggish attempts to bring the economy back in order. Maybe Blanton can redeem himself and get a second term.
 
A very interesting end to the overall Russian Civil War. Sadly, much like OTL Russia doesn't look like it's about to become as liberal as the rest of Europe anytime soon. I had many high hopes due to Nicholas's less autocratic approach around the Great War, but Russia will always continue to dominate the IEF, and whatever Russia wants then Russia gets. If there are any bright sides to this though, it's that many of the ethnic minorities get to be independent and receive their own nation. Germany comes out in the best spot by now being the largest and strongest economy in Europe, while expanding its alliance with five states. Anti-German sentiment will flare up with Russia unfortunately. As of right now I can see the Caucus states going to either Germany or the Turin Pact's camp so that way they can be protected from Russia and its neighbors like Turkey. Maybe Kurdistan and Iran will start to get heavily involved. Unfortunately it looks as though Central Asia, and definitely Manchuria will become puppets of the Chinese Technonazis. I think Central Asia would be more resistant due to its highly devout Muslim population, but it looks like they'll be caught in a Cold War between the IEF and China.

Back towards the IEF, I'm starting to predict that maybe this may be the beginning of true fascism ITTL. While the Conservatives did win, they lost many stretches of territory, have a huge population issue with 1/3rd of its people being casualties of the war, and has taken a large dump economically. The good news for them is that the heavy oil and resource regions are still in its borders. In the future, I could see an ultranationalist Pan-Slavic movement rising in IEF politics that is based on revanchism and making the IEF into a superpower. The leader of this movement could be a Putin-esque politician who will soon turn the IEF into an authoritarian state based on far-right principles, in the name of challenging the technocrats. At least unlike Nazism and Communism, these Ultranationalists goals will probably just be domestic order and regaining their borders, but it might lead to a third world war with Germany or China. The worst part of this is the crap ton of ethnic and racial conflict incoming. The Conservatives will most likely blame the Jews for being key supporters of the reformers and for the economic situation. Ukrainians and Belorussians will be seen as traitors to the Slavic cause. The Baltics, Finns, and Poles will be seen as stabbing them in the back by aligning with Germany. Caucus and Central Asians people will be looked on as terrorist scum. And the Manchurians will be seen as Technonazi collaborators. All in all making for a very dark IEF in the future. But then again maybe Mac Gregor won't do this. Who knows?

What is the U.S's current political makeup? We haven't gone over them in months, and in my mind the Democrats would lose heavily in the next election for Zaal's failure in the Russian Civil War, and his sluggish attempts to bring the economy back in order. Maybe Blanton can redeem himself and get a second term.

Good thing for the Belorussians that they are just considered Russian, and that there was no independence movement for them (to my knowledge). And, on a bit of a bright side, there have been at least 90 years for ethnic nationalities to migrate to their homeland; on the downside, the federal structure means that many still resided outside of the bounds of their existing divisions. it'll be years before that is all sorted out.

Also, the IEF has not even completely recognized the various states (under the boundaries that are offered), and the agreement is only a ceasefire. Once the IEF is ready for round two, it sounds like they will be.

MacGregor, if possible, could you show the various claims that the IEF is making? Parts of Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Manchuria, I imagine?

Zaal is doomed; under his watched, he stood by and did nothing while the principal chief antagonist managed to expand at the expense of another nation, upsetting the balance of power, removing a counterbalancing force to China, and leaving them wide open to act throughout Asia. Persia, Turkey, the Azeri, and Central Asia might bring their bloc together to try to get China out, but all that will do is make the nearby regions nervous. (Kurdistan, Armenia, Georgia, and maybe even Syria could be opposed)

It is better for the ethnic minorities that rule in those nations, yes, but could be worse for the smaller minorities who now no longer have Russia to protect them from the majority in their new unit. (The North Caucasus, and the South, are a large example of this).
 
Poor Manchuria.

Also, how long until brushfire wars in the Caucasus? I remember that one line about Turkey redressing its borders.

I don't see Caucasus being peaceful region. Chechnya has too many small minorities, Turkey wants at least part of Armenia and Persia and Turkey have intresnesses towards Caucasus and both want increase influence in Azerbaijan. Things not look so good for them.
 
Zaal is doomed; under his watched, he stood by and did nothing while the principal chief antagonist managed to expand at the expense of another nation, upsetting the balance of power, removing a counterbalancing force to China, and leaving them wide open to act throughout Asia. Persia, Turkey, the Azeri, and Central Asia might bring their bloc together to try to get China out, but all that will do is make the nearby regions nervous. (Kurdistan, Armenia, Georgia, and maybe even Syria could be opposed)
Not that it helps that the rest of the power blocs (AES, ComNat, Turin Pact) have already started to prepare for confrontations with the Technate of China and Russia, either by getting allies, developing new weapons and starting more internal cooperation. Zaal's isolationist policy bit him in the back very rapidly.
 
A very interesting end to the overall Russian Civil War. Sadly, much like OTL Russia doesn't look like it's about to become as liberal as the rest of Europe anytime soon. I had many high hopes due to Nicholas's less autocratic approach around the Great War, but Russia will always continue to dominate the IEF, and whatever Russia wants then Russia gets. If there are any bright sides to this though, it's that many of the ethnic minorities get to be independent and receive their own nation. Germany comes out in the best spot by now being the largest and strongest economy in Europe, while expanding its alliance with five states. Anti-German sentiment will flare up with Russia unfortunately. As of right now I can see the Caucus states going to either Germany or the Turin Pact's camp so that way they can be protected from Russia and its neighbors like Turkey. Maybe Kurdistan and Iran will start to get heavily involved. Unfortunately it looks as though Central Asia, and definitely Manchuria will become puppets of the Chinese Technonazis. I think Central Asia would be more resistant due to its highly devout Muslim population, but it looks like they'll be caught in a Cold War between the IEF and China.

Back towards the IEF, I'm starting to predict that maybe this may be the beginning of true fascism ITTL. While the Conservatives did win, they lost many stretches of territory, have a huge population issue with 1/3rd of its people being casualties of the war, and has taken a large dump economically. The good news for them is that the heavy oil and resource regions are still in its borders. In the future, I could see an ultranationalist Pan-Slavic movement rising in IEF politics that is based on revanchism and making the IEF into a superpower. The leader of this movement could be a Putin-esque politician who will soon turn the IEF into an authoritarian state based on far-right principles, in the name of challenging the technocrats. At least unlike Nazism and Communism, these Ultranationalists goals will probably just be domestic order and regaining their borders, but it might lead to a third world war with Germany or China. The worst part of this is the crap ton of ethnic and racial conflict incoming. The Conservatives will most likely blame the Jews for being key supporters of the reformers and for the economic situation. Ukrainians and Belorussians will be seen as traitors to the Slavic cause. The Baltics, Finns, and Poles will be seen as stabbing them in the back by aligning with Germany. Caucus and Central Asians people will be looked on as terrorist scum. And the Manchurians will be seen as Technonazi collaborators. All in all making for a very dark IEF in the future. But then again maybe Mac Gregor won't do this. Who knows?

What is the U.S's current political makeup? We haven't gone over them in months, and in my mind the Democrats would lose heavily in the next election for Zaal's failure in the Russian Civil War, and his sluggish attempts to bring the economy back in order. Maybe Blanton can redeem himself and get a second term.
There have already been Fascists in the form of the Corporatists, but yeah, I can see Corporatism rising in Russia.
 
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