Been Winning So Long, I've Lost It - The Long War TL

[Blochead]

Thanks for the comments, everyone.

Originally Posted by markbrow10

What is Australia's involvement in the war other than helping the Philippines?

Australia also contributes ground forces to the war in Afghanistan. Its special forces are more controversially deployed along with the US troops and British SAS in Pakistan.

So far an Indonesian-Australian war would take a bit more to it. It might require some butterflies surrounding the 2004 Tsunami, which was a really big setback to JAM and associated groups in Aceh that were previously causing the Indonesian government so much trouble.

Originally Posted by Gwendolyn Ingolfsson

Well Pakistan, it was nice knowing you. After this their best case scenario is going to be a complete loss of independance and extended de-facto colonial rule by the US under a UN mandate.

I think we all know what the worst case scenario is.

The trick is that the US has to balance the need for retaliation with the need to keep a friendly government in Pakistan. As much as McCain will want to retaliate, he does still need to keep that country at bay at the very least, and preferably maintain the Peshawar supply route.

Originally Posted by Gwendolyn Ingolfsson

True. Also, since security in NY & DC would no doubt be on the lookout to prevent just such an event, al Qaeda might think it would be easier to sneak their little toy into a different city.

The way I see it, a ship is the easiest way to get a nuke in. There's way too much shipping to inspect all of it manually, you'd need some sort of radiation detector (which DC and NYC may have, if I recall correctly) to find the bomb there otherwise.

Of course AQ will want to find other delivery methods for their other bombs, since the US will have to radically change its shipping policies now.

The economics of this are actually the big unknown here, what is a loose nuke situation going to do to globalization, or trade in general...

Iran, right? There's no way in hades the west will let them get the bomb after this, and McCain will never accept any of their assurences that they aren't trying to build it. I see a declaration of war, a draft and a full on bloodbath in their near future as NATO tries to take the country. Perhaps with Russian help.

This is close to the mark. You've got a place and a few of the actions that will follow down correctly.

And more American (or Brit? Or AUSSIE?? Oh damn) cities going up. Guaranteed.

Well, I won't be specific but the threat is still out there and the country that will take the biggest hit won't be the US. Sneaking a 500kt nuke around in the aftermath of all this will be tricky, so it'll be best to go after a country with less capability to defend itself...

[Expat]

If I were Mumbai I would be terrified right now. One of the "decadent" Muslim nations might be a target as well. Lots of Westerners in Dubai and it shows the Muslim world how "collaborators" are treated.

Poor Boston...as a consolation prize, I petition you to damn the butterflies and give them their 2004 World Series win. It would've been only a few days before the election. Top of the world for a week before being removed from the face of it

[Winand_von_Rabenmund]

First of all: Really great TL! Most War on terror bits didn't really captivate my attention, but this is just awesome

One question though: What are the Europeans (other than GB) up to, especially Germany? I figure with Stoiber on top, Germany might get much more involved on behalf of the US... Come to think of it, with rogue nukes around he'll start Gestapo/Stasi 2.0
Great, in TTL i should emigrate somewhere safe... but where would that be

[altamiro]

Originally Posted by Winand_von_Rabenmund

First of all: Really great TL! Most War on terror bits didn't really captivate my attention, but this is just awesome

One question though: What are the Europeans (other than GB) up to, especially Germany? I figure with Stoiber on top, Germany might get much more involved on behalf of the US... Come to think of it, with rogue nukes around he'll start Gestapo/Stasi 2.0
Great, in TTL i should emigrate somewhere safe... but where would that be

Come on, Stoiber may not have been a very able candidate for a chancellor post but he is not Hitler 2.0. The joke is that he was an excellent prime minister of Bavaria and would, after being elected Chancellor, still remain an excellent prime minister of Bavaria.

Schäuble, on the other hand...

[Winand_von_Rabenmund]

Originally Posted by altamiro

Come on, Stoiber may not have been a very able candidate for a chancellor post but he is not Hitler 2.0. The joke is that he was an excellent prime minister of Bavaria and would, after being elected Chancellor, still remain an excellent prime minister of Bavaria.

Schäuble, on the other hand...

And who do you think would be minister of the interior under Stoiber?
Of course I'm exaggerating, but still - with world politics like that and a chancellor Stoiber who is more likely than Angie to let Schäuble loose, I guess we'd be in for a German Patriot Act at the least.

[President Al Bundy]

Originally Posted by Winand_von_Rabenmund

One question though: What are the Europeans (other than GB) up to, especially Germany? I figure with Stoiber on top, Germany might get much more involved on behalf of the US... Come to think of it, with rogue nukes around he'll start Gestapo/Stasi 2.0
Great, in TTL i should emigrate somewhere safe... but where would that be

Yup, this is really a dystopia, an Edmund Stoiber led Germany

[Blochead]

Originally Posted by Expat

If I were Mumbai I would be terrified right now. One of the "decadent" Muslim nations might be a target as well. Lots of Westerners in Dubai and it shows the Muslim world how "collaborators" are treated.

Poor Boston...as a consolation prize, I petition you to damn the butterflies and give them their 2004 World Series win. It would've been only a few days before the election. Top of the world for a week before being removed from the face of it

You're getting on the mark. Yes, Boston will still win the World Series. Them winning the world series and then the city being hit by an atomic bomb is one of those stories you can't make up... Only I did, so I suppose that takes away from it somewhat.

Originally Posted by Winand_von_Rabenmund

First of all: Really great TL! Most War on terror bits didn't really captivate my attention, but this is just awesome

One question though: What are the Europeans (other than GB) up to, especially Germany? I figure with Stoiber on top, Germany might get much more involved on behalf of the US... Come to think of it, with rogue nukes around he'll start Gestapo/Stasi 2.0
Great, in TTL i should emigrate somewhere safe... but where would that be

Yeah, Germany is a bit more hawkish, and they will adopt some pretty serious counter-terrorism measures along with many other European countries.

Germany and France have larger Afghan deployments than in OTL. Without Iraq, it's a bit harder to thumb noses at the US, although Pakistan is enough of a fiasco that most continental Europeans keep their troops out. US, UK, and Australia run combat operations (at varying scales) in Pakistan, and there are a few random countries that work across the border as well (Lithuania) which want to show the US they're a real ally.

As for Stoiber and Schäuble themselves, am I correct in associating Schäuble with legislation to permit assassination in Germany? I'm actually going to do a bit of a write up on the use of assassination. Thanks to increased support for the US, it's very likely an international framework for assassination of AQ and other terrorist figures will be approved at some level. I'm still paging through the OTL literature on assassination (a lot of people are trying to find a place for it within international law) to decide just how overt and legally influential this consensus will be.

[Ridwan Asher]

Originally Posted by markbrow10

Maybe you could start a small war between Australia & indonesia, After a terror attack funded/supported by indonesian interests that would lead to union-hood for East Timor, Papua New Guinea for protection and maybe the war may see the capture and union-hood for North & South Moluccas and West Papua, That also may lead to a much bigger ADF (Australian Defence Force) with maybe even a Royal Australian Marine Corps being formed.

See Ya

Mark

What has happened ITTL that has made Indonesia wanting to occupy East Timor again ?

[truth is life]

At first I thought Boston had been hit by the 500-kilo device...now I hear it's still out there

This isn't going to end well for anyone. At a minimum, Iran and NK are screwed, and so is the US more than likely. McCain will probably be able to do anything he wants in the aftermath of a nuclear attack, but the US is going to have a huge amount of trouble trying to control the entire Middle East, even via puppets. Maybe especially via puppets.

[Gwendolyn Ingolfsson]

Originally Posted by Blochead

The trick is that the US has to balance the need for retaliation with the need to keep a friendly government in Pakistan. As much as McCain will want to retaliate, he does still need to keep that country at bay at the very least, and preferably maintain the Peshawar supply route.

Why? There are demonstrably hostile elements in that government that have or have helped slip a nuclear warhead onto the US mainland and detonated it. For all McCain knows, there may be more. I think the most likely US reaction would be to go whole-hog and try to take down the entire country. There is also the deterrence factor to be considered: any sign of softness on the part of the US may encourage future nuclear terrorism/blackmail down the line. No, you want to stomp this particular beast in the nest, and hard.

Originally Posted by Blochead

This is close to the mark. You've got a place and a few of the actions that will follow down correctly.

I was afraid of that. Poor Iran. And poor US. Vietnam will be nothing compared to this, especially with all the other fighting going on. The cost in blood and treasure will be astronomical.

Originally Posted by Blochead

Well, I won't be specific but the threat is still out there and the country that will take the biggest hit won't be the US. Sneaking a 500kt nuke around in the aftermath of all this will be tricky, so it'll be best to go after a country with less capability to defend itself...

Yeesh. Man, I am not looking forward to that. 25Kt is bad enough, 500....

Say, I just had a thought - what about Israel? I take it they won't get hit - trying to smuggle a nuke into their territory would be an exercise in suicide, not to mention the fact that even if you succeed it's H-bombs for everyone. Still and all they may take a much harder line against the Palestinians and Arab Israelis in their midst, seeing them as an even bigger potential threat then they do in OTL. More NAST-tayness!

[Gwendolyn Ingolfsson]

Originally Posted by Blochead

Thanks to increased support for the US, it's very likely an international framework for assassination of AQ and other terrorist figures will be approved at some level. I'm still paging through the OTL literature on assassination (a lot of people are trying to find a place for it within international law) to decide just how overt and legally influential this consensus will be.

Ah, they'll probably just drop any rules prohibiting CIA, ASIS and MI6 from assassinating people and adopt Israel's attitude towards "targeted killings."

[FDW]

Okay, I've taken a look at a simulation of a nuclear blast on Boston here and it does not look pretty at all, this attack had to have killed at least 100,000 people, if not more, I just gotta say this Blochead, what have you done?

[Arachnid]

Thank god this is back, it is one of the best tl's on the board and my God it is back with a BANG!

[Blochead]

Originally Posted by Gwendolyn Ingolfsson

Why? There are demonstrably hostile elements in that government that have or have helped slip a nuclear warhead onto the US mainland and detonated it. For all McCain knows, there may be more. I think the most likely US reaction would be to go whole-hog and try to take down the entire country. There is also the deterrence factor to be considered: any sign of softness on the part of the US may encourage future nuclear terrorism/blackmail down the line. No, you want to stomp this particular beast in the nest, and hard.

Well, that's the thing. The US doesn't actually know who's behind the attack, nor do they know the location of the remaining nuclear weapons. Nuking Pakistan could invite a broader nuclear war involving India, which the US isn't eager to invite. It's a tricky situation. I still haven't quite figured out the American response yet myself.

I was afraid of that. Poor Iran. And poor US. Vietnam will be nothing compared to this, especially with all the other fighting going on. The cost in blood and treasure will be astronomical.

Never mind the unintended consequences from all this.

Yeesh. Man, I am not looking forward to that. 25Kt is bad enough, 500....

Yeah. Most US strikes will probably focus on eliminating Pakistani nuclear materials to make sure none of those still exist.

Say, I just had a thought - what about Israel? I take it they won't get hit - trying to smuggle a nuke into their territory would be an exercise in suicide, not to mention the fact that even if you succeed it's H-bombs for everyone. Still and all they may take a much harder line against the Palestinians and Arab Israelis in their midst, seeing them as an even bigger potential threat then they do in OTL. More NAST-tayness!

No, Israel will be very difficult to hit. But what they do will be pretty ugly. If anyone here is familiar with the more fantastic ideas of Avigdor Lieberman and Yisrael Beiteinu, you'll have sort of an idea of what Israel will be up to.

[Gwendolyn Ingolfsson]

Originally Posted by Blochead

Well, that's the thing. The US doesn't actually know who's behind the attack, nor do they know the location of the remaining nuclear weapons. Nuking Pakistan could invite a broader nuclear war involving India, which the US isn't eager to invite. It's a tricky situation. I still haven't quite figured out the American response yet myself.

Never mind the unintended consequences from all this.

Was the recent economic downturn caused in part by all the war spending and the instability of global oil prices? I'm asking 'cause I honestly don't know. If it was, then things will be worse in the ATL. Higher unemployment, etc. Weee.

Originally Posted by Blochead

No, Israel will be very difficult to hit. But what they do will be pretty ugly. If anyone here is familiar with the more fantastic ideas of Avigdor Lieberman and Yisrael Beiteinu, you'll have sort of an idea of what Israel will be up to.

Oh GOD, not those freaks! It is gonna suck to be an Arab or a Muslim in that part of the world. Of course there will probably lynchings, riots and mosque-burnings all over the US as well, at least before martial law takes effect.

Well. I'll just shut up now, sit back and see what you bring us next. Damn but I loves me a good dystopia!

[markbrow10]

Originally Posted by Ridwan Asher

What has happened ITTL that has made Indonesia wanting to occupy East Timor again ?

No, I meant it Australia accepts East Timor, etc, as new states not the other way around, however now that you brought it up, Oil from the Timor sea and possibly the increasing mistrust between Oz and Timor could lead to Indonesia offering East Timor provience-hood be it peacefully.

See Ya

Mark

[Fyrwulf]

Originally Posted by Gwendolyn Ingolfsson

Was the recent economic downturn caused in part by all the war spending and the instability of global oil prices? I'm asking 'cause I honestly don't know.

No, it was caused by irresponsible people too sure of their own cleverness and given too much power over other people's money. The war has very, very little to do with it (whatever liberals will have you believe) and oil prices have long since self-corrected.

[Nekromans]

Originally Posted by Fyrwulf

No, it was caused by irresponsible people too sure of their own cleverness and given too much power over other people's money. The war has very, very little to do with it (whatever liberals will have you believe) and oil prices have long since self-corrected.

I haven't heard a single person of any political definition claim the war is responsible for the recession, and AH.COM is notorious for being a wretched hive of scum and liberalism.

[Cash]

Absolutely fantastic timeline, one of the best. Could I ask one favor, speaking as a former newspaper copy editor and practicing English major? The past tense of the verb "to lead" is spelled "led," not "lead." It's not a "read-have read" construction. It's "lead-have led." "Lead" pronounced "led" is the heavy metal that Superman can't see through.

Yes, I know it's intensely picky, but the usage keeps distracting me from enjoying the timeline even more than I already do.

[Blochead]

Originally Posted by Fyrwulf

No, it was caused by irresponsible people too sure of their own cleverness and given too much power over other people's money. The war has very, very little to do with it (whatever liberals will have you believe) and oil prices have long since self-corrected.

OTL wars were certainly not the cause of the recession. However, TTL's wars will have a very big role, as losing a city does wonders to wreck global finance.

Originally Posted by Cash

Absolutely fantastic timeline, one of the best. Could I ask one favor, speaking as a former newspaper copy editor and practicing English major? The past tense of the verb "to lead" is spelled "led," not "lead." It's not a "read-have read" construction. It's "lead-have led." "Lead" pronounced "led" is the heavy metal that Superman can't see through.

Yes, I know it's intensely picky, but the usage keeps distracting me from enjoying the timeline even more than I already do.

Oh, no, thank you for reminding me. Proofreading is a persistent weakness of mind, and it's good that there are people like you out there to keep me from abusing the English language.