Been Winning So Long, I've Lost It - The Long War TL

PROLOGUE

"So we are a schizophrenic culture of sorts, a nation of amateurs that can almost magically transform itself into a culture of professional killers."
- Victor Davis Hanson

"The situation... in Central Asia is similar to that of all civilized states that come into contact with half-savage nomadic tribes without a firm social organization. In such cases, the interests... of security always require the more civilized state have a certain authority over its neighbors... The state must therefore make a choice: either to give up this continuous effort and doom its borders to constant unrest... or else to advance farther and farther into the heart of the savage lands... where the greatest difficulty lies in being able to stop."
-Chancellor Aleksandr Gorchakov

" We're Americans, and we'll never surrender. They will."
- John McCain

---

Outside Parachinar, Pakistan
December 2001

"We are not supposed to be here. So make every shot count."

Just a few hours ago, America had almost come away empty handed from Tora Bora. Now, watching the surviving Taliban escape across the border, the President and CIA had decided they would not squander any second chances. The Special Forces in the hills and mountains had met the enemy, but they were not theirs.

A column of slow moving Toyota trucks, braving the fierce mountain winter, had received the militants not far from the border. Once they were in Parachinar proper, they would be impossible to reach without even more severe diplomatic consequences. What was about to happen would be bad enough, acceptable only because of what victory might bring.

Nobody reached Parachinar that day.

.50 caliber rifles proved adequate for stopping the vehicles. Caught in the crossfire, the rest of the Americans advanced under cover to bring their full firepower to bear. Thousands upon thousands of tracer rounds riddled everything within the valley. Here there would be no air support, and they could move no faster than the enemy - everything worth engaging had to be stopped in the valley.

Now the teams were within range of personal arms and a proper firefight began, with the Americans leapfrogging through the remnants of the column. When the shooting finally began to quiet, the Americans began cataloguing their spoils. The caravan, at first, appeared unexceptional - truck beds of Islamist fighters and supplies. Then the video cameras were found. In the truck behind it, a dying man with an old Army-pattern woodland camouflage jacket and a AK-74SU. Some pair of classified American eyes traced its way up a long, blooded beard to meet his face, widening in surprise. The soldier took out camcorder and started taping, signalling to his comrades, with a smile of grim satisfaction. It was a macabre scene, but what little empathy for their enemies these men usually had could not have existed after what happened three months ago.

If they found some way to explain this, the American public would get an early surprise for Christmas.
 
PART I: 1998-2000

“Our nation is chosen by God and commissioned by history to be a model to the world.”
-[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]George W. Bush, 2000

---

December, 1998
“… In other news, political consultant Karl Rove, a major figure in the Texas Republican Party and instrumental part in Governor George W. Bush’s campaigns, died today after a car accident…”
-[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]KTBC (FOX affiliate) news

January-February, 2000

“The battle between John McCain and George W. Bush continues, with no signs of ending soon. Bush, whose early success in the Iowa caucus was soon countered by John McCain’s victory in New Hampshire, has managed to take only Delaware since that defeat. Today, on the last day of February, he will need to pull off a strong victory in Virginia or Washington to remain a viable candidate…”
-[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]CNN News, February 29, 2000

“While we have had past differences, in the end, we must remember this party’s proud tradition of doing what is right for the country. And John McCain is a man who understands that tradition. I am proud to endorse him today, and I hope you will be proud to lend him your support and your votes throughout the election year…”
-[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]George W. Bush’s concession speech, March 8, 2000
 
Very nice. A Victor Davis Hanson quote and a McCain Candidacy in 2000 and an early "victory" for the War on Terror.

All of this makes me think that you'll turn SARS into a worldwide epidemic by 2004 and by 2006 McCain will be delivering on the legacy of Lafayette by freeing Paris from Gaullist oppression. J/K :)

Look forward to more.

Great Style, btw.
 
I too am intrigued by this. With McCain in power, it makes me wonder if they'd even bother going into Iraq in the first place, especially if they get Osama in the Winter of '01. As to Afghanistan, I suspect it will remain a sinkhole, but perhaps a stronger, more willing Coalition, might be able to stabilize the situation by now, or at least minimize casualties.

Of course, the War on Terror might also escalate, given that OBL could now be turned into a Martyr....

I look forward to more of this, and I find myself wondering why something so simple and ingenious hasn't been thought of before. :D
 
Very nice. A Victor Davis Hanson quote and a McCain Candidacy in 2000 and an early "victory" for the War on Terror.

I picked up Autumn of War a few months ago and only got the chance to start reading it now. It was a good reminder of what many Americans felt in 2001 and the extreme expectations and fears of both sides of the debate. This TL is in large part inspired by it.

All of this makes me think that you'll turn SARS into a worldwide epidemic by 2004 and by 2006 McCain will be delivering on the legacy of Lafayette by freeing Paris from Gaullist oppression. J/K :)

We'll see where it goes. I've only got the TL outlined up to that moment in December 2001, though as we catch up to that point we'll find that the attacks have gone VERY differently as well - the question of Iraq is not yet resolved, though it is certainly on the table.

Look forward to more.

Great Style, btw.

Thanks! I'm going to be trying some more narrative excerpts for this one, though there are still some parts that will lend themselves better to my traditional format.

I too am intrigued by this. With McCain in power, it makes me wonder if they'd even bother going into Iraq in the first place, especially if they get Osama in the Winter of '01. As to Afghanistan, I suspect it will remain a sinkhole, but perhaps a stronger, more willing Coalition, might be able to stabilize the situation by now, or at least minimize casualties.

Afghanistan is definitely going to turn out differently. Iraq is still an open question, as stated earlier - if the US does go in, the case will be stated in a different way than OTL's administration did, given the differing cabinet that McCain is going to have.

Of course, the War on Terror might also escalate, given that OBL could now be turned into a Martyr....

It will certainly be different, I'll give you that.

I look forward to more of this, and I find myself wondering why something so simple and ingenious hasn't been thought of before. :D

Thanks! To be honest, I haven't fully thought through the consequences of it myself. So it will be as interesting for me to write it as it will be (I hope!) to read it.
 
PART II: 1998-2000

“… Despite the braggadocio of past years, we have in fact done very little – and so invited war onto our shores.”
-Victor Davis Hanson

“That's the challenge of pessimism; it's really hard to aim low enough that you're pleasantly surprised around as often and as much as you're unpleasantly surprised.”
-Eliezer Yudkowsky

---

There were a lot of bombings in 1998.

The first were directed against the United States – In Kenya and Tanzania, al Qaeda killed hundreds of Americans and Africans both. Perhaps most ironically of all, bin Laden cast his rhetoric in a criticism of African policy that seemed to be some exaggeration of Clinton’s liberal critics – al Qaeda struck at Africa to “avenge” the invasion of Somalia, the genocide in Rwanda, and other crimes. This is not to imply al Qaeda had any particular affinity for American liberalism, but perhaps, in retrospect, it is not hard to see already in 1998 signs of the world polarization that would come in the following decades. As the US response struck Sudan’s largest pharmaceutical factory and targets in Afghanistan, (followed by Operation Desert Fox), many Islamic countries began denying the use of their bases for military operations against others.

The attack against the USS Cole in 2000 was the last of the pre 9/11 attacks by al Qaeda against the United States. Though due to its military aim it did not meet the formal definition of terrorism, the attack was widely condemned as such. American concern about terrorism was growing, but Americans at this time were nevertheless more concerned about war with Iraq, Russia (after a close call at Pristina International Airport) or China than any central Asian backwater. Although there were no reprisal attacks after those on the USS Cole, this did not deter al Qaeda in any way. As the world would soon find out, their plans were about to undergo drastic escalation…

“In the fall of 1999, the ten operatives selected by Bin Ladin for the planes operation were chosen to attend an elite training course at al Qaeda’s Mes Aynak camp in Afghanistan. Bin Ladin personally selected the veteran fighters who received this training, and several of them were destined for important operations…By January 20, 2000, the ten-aircraft strategy had the clear consensus of al Qaeda’s command structure – the attack would be in three, coordinated phases – one against each coast of the United States, and a third targeted at East Asia.”

-9/11 Commission Report

“… the final results are in, and we should be expecting a concession speech shortly. We have 302 electoral votes for McCain-Thompson and 236 for Gore-Lieberman. John McCain will be the next President of the United States.”
-CNN News, November 7, 2000
 
“In the fall of 1999, the ten operatives selected by Bin Ladin for the planes operation were chosen to attend an elite training course at al Qaeda’s Mes Aynak camp in Afghanistan. Bin Ladin personally selected the veteran fighters who received this training, and several of them were destined for important operations…By January 20, 2000, the ten-aircraft strategy had the clear consensus of al Qaeda’s command structure – the attack would be in three, coordinated phases – one against each coast of the United States, and a third targeted at East Asia.”

-9/11 Commission Report

Oh. Oh, dear. An attack against the East, West, and Gulf Coasts. Well, the alt-target list will certainly be interesting. I hope the NSA analysts are enjoying the TL as much as I am.


“… the final results are in, and we should be expecting a concession speech shortly. We have 302 electoral votes for McCain-Thompson and 236 for Gore-Lieberman. John McCain will be the next President of the United States.”
-CNN News, November 7, 2000

Eminently reasonable. I imagine you gave McCain Pennsylvania as well as Florida. Also, is this Fred Thompson or Tommy Thompson? Interesting butterflies avoiding the 2000 election debacle.
 
This looks to be interesting, despite my general suspicion of recent American AH - so often it gets turned into "LALALA DEMMYCRATZ R LOSERZ" or "RePUBlICans r teh devilz!!!!1!one!" This has neither of those, but a fair and balanced outlook on the American political scene.

I look forward to the next segment, unless it is titled, "Gore reveals he is Satan".
 
Interesting. Hope this doesn't turn into an Ameriwank TL though.

Thanks. I don't think it will turn out to be one, however the potential for the McCain administration to be angry, Republican, and more competent than Bush could sort of make it seem like one. The idea behind the title is a country that throws its full effort at the War on Terror - the way, we are so nostalgically reminded, the "Greatest Generation" did - only to find out that this problem requires more than blood, treasure, and overwhelming force.

Oh. Oh, dear. An attack against the East, West, and Gulf Coasts. Well, the alt-target list will certainly be interesting. I hope the NSA analysts are enjoying the TL as much as I am.

Actually, if you look at the 9/11 commission report, the 3-coast, 10-plane attack was originally what they were going for. It got scrapped, along with an idea to kill all the adult males on one plane and then fly around the country denouncing US foreign policy to extract concessions for the release of the women and children.

Eminently reasonable. I imagine you gave McCain Pennsylvania as well as Florida. Also, is this Fred Thompson or Tommy Thompson? Interesting butterflies avoiding the 2000 election debacle.
Pretty much. And it's Fred Thompson - I figured McCain would have to pick someone more traditionally right wing to unify the base.

The real trick of course, is going to be dealing with McCain's cabinet, which I haven't entirely settled on - I can't imagine he'd have the exact same crew as Bush, but there is the potential for some overlaps.

This looks to be interesting, despite my general suspicion of recent American AH - so often it gets turned into "LALALA DEMMYCRATZ R LOSERZ" or "RePUBlICans r teh devilz!!!!1!one!" This has neither of those, but a fair and balanced outlook on the American political scene.

Thanks. I guess you could say this is a post-Bush reflection on the War on Terror - a problem I do not think the American political system is properly geared toward handling (and not in a "democracy is holding us back" way.)

I look forward to the next segment, unless it is titled, "Gore reveals he is Satan".
Well, that wasn't the title, but I was going to imply it through historical accounts and a segment in which he sacrifices an orphan for its "life force."
 
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PART III: 2000-2001

“Politics is an extension of war by other means.”
-Various

“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”
-H.L. Menken

---

“The McCain Cabinet:

Internal McCain memorandum, released to various news agencies…

SECRETARY OF STATE – COLIN POWELL
UNDERSECRETARY OF STATE – RICHARD ARMITAGE

SECRETARY OF DEFENSE – JOHN WARNER
UNDERSECRETARY OF DEFENSE – RANDY SCHEUNEMANN

SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY – PHIL GRAMM…”
-via the New York Times, December 2000

America’s next foreign policy: A look at the President-Elect’s team

“… McCain’s State Department seems to be rooted in the “realist” school of international relations, with famed former General Colin Powell taking the helm and Richard Armitage as undersecretary of state. This also confirms rumors that McCain would take on some of George W. Bush’s advisory staff, since Armitage played a key role in Bush’s foreign policy statements before his concession…

“… However, the influence of McCain’s neoconservative advisors is still quite apparent. McCain has strong connections with the Kagan family, and his foreign policy advisor Randy Scheunemann is slated to become Undersecretary of Defense. Given America’s large budget surplus, it’s almost certain McCain will halt or reverse the budgetary and manpower cutbacks of the US military…

“… Potential trouble spots for the McCain administration could include Iraq, especially in light of the 1998 PNAC letter to President Clinton, which several of McCain’s staff members have signed… Although many Republicans have been very critical of Clinton’s foreign policy, McCain’s promise to “act in concert with countries that share our values and commitment to defending them” may not be functionally different than unilateral NATO action without the explicit approval of the Security Council…”
-Council on Foreign Relations backgrounder, January 2001
 

Hnau

Banned
This TL has its dose of awesome-sauce, that's for sure. Good luck, Blochead, I eagerly await the next installment.
 

maverick

Banned
Been Winning So Long, I've Lost It - The Long War TL

Not the conventional, America-wank scenario, it would seem...quite the contrary actually....

Can't wait for more...is it that they get too confident and expand the war until they are overstretched or that they put too much will and energy into a conflict that they've lost from the get-go? (Like Afghanistan, like anyone could win a war in Afghanistan)
 
PART IV: 2000-2001
“For other nations, utopia is a blessed past never to be recovered; for Americans it is just beyond the horizon.”
-Henry Kissinger

“We are living in the aftermath of something. Are we on the eve of something else?”
-Charles Morice

---

These were the last years of the “End of History.”
In Mexico, seven decades of PRI rule ended with the election of PAN candidate Vincente Fox to the Presidency. He would be a key ally of future President McCain in the reform of American immigration law. Vietnam, the great albatross of America’s Cold War experience, welcomed Bill Clinton and hoped for integration into the growing world economy. His “third way” ally, Tony Blair and his Labour Party, won a victory in British elections the next year. The People’s Republic of China’s economic transformation was met global recognition, winning a bid to host the Olympics in 2008. Even the Balkans seemed to be looking a brighter place – Slobodan Milosevic had surrendered to federal police and would be tried for war crimes in due course.

Recognizing hindsight, it was easy to be optimistic. But the turn of the millennium gave equal fodder for pessimists.

Not long after Israel ended its 22 year occupation of southern Lebanon, it became entangled in a new battle in Palestine. Surrounded by throngs of Israeli police, opposition Ariel Sharon visited the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. The al-Aqsa intifada began soon afterwards, and by the next year Sharon’s Likud Party would lead Israel – this tussle would not end quickly. But the Jews and Arabs had been fighting for thousands of years, thought the 21st century man; it was tragic, but the liberal democratic order could not triumph in a day.

Bombs were falling on Iraq once again. Defying the Security Council, Saddam was once again dragging out the diplomatically excruciating process of unconventional disarmament. This would be President McCain’s first major international problem, and he was certainly not going to cut Saddam Hussein any slack. The RAF and USAF began tearing apart Iraqi air defenses with impunity.

“… I am sorry about the thorough search, but you know the men who tried to kill me came as reporters too… I think God was trying to keep me here, really. For the struggle that was to come… September 9th. The attempt on my life made a few papers, but I think it would have made more if it was successful. I suppose a cynic could say that if I had died, the West would have noticed more. The ISI connection, al Qaeda’s involvement… I could have told them that, if they were listening.”

- Ahmad Shah Massoud, in an interview with Frontline, 2002
 
“… I am sorry about the thorough search, but you know the men who tried to kill me came as reporters too… I think God was trying to keep me here, really. For the struggle that was to come… September 9th. The attempt on my life made a few papers, but I think it would have made more if it was successful. I suppose a cynic could say that if I had died, the West would have noticed more. The ISI connection, al Qaeda’s involvement… I could have told them that, if they were listening.”

- Ahmad Shah Massoud, in an interview with Frontline, 2002

Now that's interesting. A far different invasion of Afghanistan?

I assume you mean the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, the primary Intelligence service of Pakistan, rather than the Intercollegiate Studies Institute, founded by William F. Buckley, Jr.
 
Now that's interesting. A far different invasion of Afghanistan?

It will be different, but there are still going to be some parallels - hence the fighting at Tora Bora in December. It has the potential to help out the government in the long term if the USA can keep a major player like Massoud on its side though.

I assume you mean the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, the primary Intelligence service of Pakistan, rather than the Intercollegiate Studies Institute, founded by William F. Buckley, Jr.

Of course. Massoud was one of the leading voices against Pakistani intervention in Afghanistan, so it would not be at all surprising if the allegations of ISI involvement were true.
 
Not the conventional, America-wank scenario, it would seem...quite the contrary actually....

Yeah, this is... different. Not quite sure of the best term.

Can't wait for more...is it that they get too confident and expand the war until they are overstretched or that they put too much will and energy into a conflict that they've lost from the get-go? (Like Afghanistan, like anyone could win a war in Afghanistan)

I don't want to spoil too much, but it's sort of a mix. Just imagine a more popular, competent, but still misguided response, I suppose.
 
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