Holding Out for a Hero: Gustav Stresemann Survives

[BrotherToAll]

Ah most interesting, I can't wait to see how America handles this.

[stevep]

Susano

As was discussed earlier the Japanese can do a Pearl Harbour type attack, although far more difficult than attacking Hawaii in OTL, against Singapore but they don't have the logistics to invade it directly until they have bases in Indo-China. Very much doubt they could actually get Java given that the Dutch are not occupied and Britain has far more and better forces in position than it did OTL.

The problem for the Japanese is probably not getting the oil fields working but then getting the oil out. With Britain in Malaya in strength then there will be continued attacks on supply lines, by both air and sub forces. Not to mention while there are fields in Borneo I think the main ones at the time are in Sumarta, which is still in allied hands.

For all Faeelin bias against Britain it did do at least as much as the US to aid China in OTL, until the threat to the homeland in Europe forced us to concentrate attention there. Not surprising that its Britain that is standing up to the Japanese over China and the Americans sitting the war out.

It would not necessarily be the end of empire anyway as the conflict could easily give the empire a new lease of life, although only a short one. Rather than being bled white in a long and exhausting conflict that coupled with poor leadership and hostile 'allies' Britain is likely to see a realtively quick and cheap victory that could well boost moral and unity. Also without the European conflict its less likely to have to sell the family silver as it can build/supply all the equipment it needs and probably supply the Dutch and possibly the French. Such a revival wouldn't last long because the age of European empires is passing. Europe, once the Nazis were defeated, no longer has the same desire for empire as other parts of the world, nor is willing to pay the price, either internal or external for it.

Steve

[LordInsane]

Originally Posted by Faeelin

What, you don't trust the British to have China's best interests at heart?

I should note that if you're looking for a man to aggravate Britain and push for a strong and free (work in progress) China, then you can't do much better than Willkie.

Oh, I'm certain the British do have China's best interests at heart. America's entry would be a good shortening of the way to achieve a defeated Japan, though...

[Faeelin]

Originally Posted by BrotherToAll

Ah most interesting, I can't wait to see how America handles this.

The American reaction will be interesting, and a bit, to be honest, anti-British.

As was discussed earlier the Japanese can do a Pearl Harbour type attack, although far more difficult than attacking Hawaii in OTL, against Singapore but they don't have the logistics to invade it directly until they have bases in Indo-China. Very much doubt they could actually get Java given that the Dutch are not occupied and Britain has far more and better forces in position than it did OTL.

Okay, we can retcon them out of Java. But I question the idea that a more prepared Dutch army would make a difference; the impression that I get is that their defense plans for the region basically entailed relying on Britain to defend the colonies for them. But I could certainly be wrong about this.

The Japanese attack on Singapore is actually coming out of Vietnam; it goes very, very poorly, but the High Command was prone to irrational decisionmaking in this era.

Originally Posted by stevep

The problem for the Japanese is probably not getting the oil fields working but then getting the oil out. With Britain in Malaya in strength then there will be continued attacks on supply lines, by both air and sub forces. Not to mention while there are fields in Borneo I think the main ones at the time are in Sumarta, which is still in allied hands

Ayup.

It would not necessarily be the end of empire anyway as the conflict could easily give the empire a new lease of life, although only a short one. Rather than being bled white in a long and exhausting conflict that coupled with poor leadership and hostile 'allies' Britain is likely to see a realtively quick and cheap victory that could well boost moral and unity. Also without the European conflict its less likely to have to sell the family silver as it can build/supply all the equipment it needs and probably supply the Dutch and possibly the French. Such a revival wouldn't last long because the age of European empires is passing. Europe, once the Nazis were defeated, no longer has the same desire for empire as other parts of the world, nor is willing to pay the price, either internal or external for it.

Here's an interesting question, actually. Could this war be more expensive for Britain in some ways than OTL?

Lend Lease, for instance, seems less likely; giving Europeans weapons for free to fight for their colonies doesn't seem like it'd be politically popular in Europe. When you consider that Britain was already running out of foreign reserves in 1941 OTL....

But it's interesting. Britain might be more determiend to keep the Stirling Bloc than OTL, a further blow to Anglo-American relations.

Originally Posted by 03371

Stunning update!

Looking forward to this 'overwhelming force'...

It's hard not to get a bit jingoistic in this scene, but Japan still has some advantages that'll take time to hammer out.

[Kurt_Steiner]

Originally Posted by Faeelin

The American reaction will be interesting, and a bit, to be honest, anti-British.

Anti-British? They haven't forgotten 1776, it seems.

[037771]

Originally Posted by Faeelin

It's hard not to get a bit jingoistic in this scene, but Japan still has some advantages that'll take time to hammer out.

This is true i think. Are we going to see application of this overwhelming force, followed by the British tendency to muck things up early on (as per every other war since 1850 that the UK has been involved in)?

Originally Posted by stevep

For all Faeelin bias against Britain

Really? I thought he was being even-handed....it is pretty inevitable (in general terms) after all that the British Empire was going to fall if it got into any type of serious contest in the late 30's/40's...

[Manfr]

Announcer:

After a Great War

Images from WWI's western front

In a Nation Humiliated,

German diplomats signing the Treaty of Versailles

When the World is Falling Apart

work queues in the Weimar Republic

And dark menaces are lingering next door

Hitler and Mussolini shake hands

How can a man make a difference ?

A Liberal Party's rally, the crowds are cheering while singing Die Deutschlandslied

This Summer, look as a brave man rises from the ruins of his country

Stresemann speaks in Reichstag, Bonnie Tyler starts singing

Strives for a Brighter Tomorrow

Stresemann hugs Blum with affection; Attlee speaks under a EU-like flag

And faces old enemies

La Rocque speaking to a delirious crowd with martial gestures

While unexpected bedfellows join in

Molotov shakes hands with the Japanese Foreign Minister

To take Destiny in their own hands

Japanese planes bombing Singapore; German soldiers fighting alongside Chinese Republicans

Once, a war was fought, to end all wars

A mushroom cloud in the Algerian desert;

But that wasn't enough

Holding Out for a Hero : Gustav Stresemann

HBO Logo, Soon on your TVs

ù

A movie (in truth, a tv) trailer for my favorite TL ever was necessary

[The Sandman]

Two things: First, what's going on with Thailand? If they came in on the Japanese side, as seems likely, that should help with Japanese logistics.

Second, if the IJA has the same strength as in OTL 1941, the divisions not being used to secure the Philippines in TTL are presumably available to use elsewhere. Such as, say, Malaya. Unless you've already used them in Vietnam, but then you still should have the OTL divisions ready to go in Malaya on day one. And as previous posters have mentioned, the Japanese all but have to go for it; taking Singapore from the land side is probably the only reasonable method to use, and Malaya itself had some resources the Japanese needed.

And if Singapore's OTL water issues still stand, then the city will eventually fall if the Japanese besiege it. I can see Singapore becoming TTL's version of Bataan and Corregidor, with Monty being evacuated to Australia while promising to return at some unspecified date. Except maybe worse, since a besieged Singapore with this sort of army would be something the RN couldn't just abandon, and that could therefore easily be used to try to draw the RN into a trap on its approach to the city.

Japan will still lose, of course, given that the Brits don't have a continental war to distract them, but it'll be much harder than in OTL. I'd personally figure that Port Moresby would fall, that the Japanese push into India would get at least somewhat further than in OTL, and that the Japanese might try for Darwin in Australia and for Ceylon in order to further erode the support capacity of the RN in the east. I'd also pick Diego Garcia as the locale for any Midway-style decisive battle; it would be a critical piece of territory for both sides.

[stevep]

Originally Posted by Faeelin

The American reaction will be interesting, and a bit, to be honest, anti-British.

So what's new? Presumably the Americans will now criticise aid to China because it isn't controlled by them, or restricted to their goods?

The Japanese attack on Singapore is actually coming out of Vietnam; it goes very, very poorly, but the High Command was prone to irrational decision making in this era.

The Japanese invasion of Malaya is coming out of French Indo-China but they need to attack that 1st and overrun the French. You've had them do that surprisingly quickly considering the long period of tension in the region and belligient nature of the recent Japanese governments.

I was presuming the initial attack on Singapore and damage to the fleet which had been sent east, presumably because of the rising tension, was a Pearl Harbour type carrier strike. This would be markedly more difficult than the OTL operation against Pearl Harbour since the attack force would have to pass through fairly busy waters rather than the virtually unused sections of the N Pacific the Japanese were able to. However it is possible.

Here's an interesting question, actually. Could this war be more expensive for Britain in some ways than OTL?

Would be very difficult. We don't have a major war in Europe where Britain is facing total defeat. Nor the loss of the bulk of the regular armies equipment requiring a frantic rearming. As such there is not the mad rush to get arms from anywhere at just about any cost. Similarly, with tension a lot less in Europe the past couple of years and no Nazi Germany arming like mad [and propagandarising that it had even more weapons than it actually possessed], while there will have been a rearmament programme it will have been less breakneck and more focused. That in itself will save a lot of resources.

Similarly we have Attlee as PM rather than Churchill with his blind belief in the friendship America and Roosevelt in particular. As such I can't see anything as ruinous as the Lend-Lease agreement or the earlier selling off cheap of assests.

With the lack of a European conflict and immediate threat to the homelands Britain is under far less stress. There will not be a blackout with all the economic and social problems that generated. Nor heavy losses of merchant shipping and accompanying supplies. There will be a conflict in Pacific waters and East Asia between an alliance consisting of [at minimum] Britain, China, France and the Netherlands against an already overstretched Japanese empire. [This could also be a big economic and political bonus for Britain. The fact it is fighting a common enemy will give it a lot of kudos in China as well as the Chinese probably getting used to a lot of Britain equipment].

I know you have hinted that there is going to be a major conflict in Europe, albeit starting a bit later, with the Soviets. However just as many of the continental powers can sit back and watch Britain and France fight Japan Britain will be buffered from the main Soviet forces by the eastern and central European powers. I expect it will contribute a significant experditionary force and air support, presuming resources are freed enough from the Far East by that time. However again there is unlikely to be anything as dark as 1940-45 for Britain. Also, if the Soviets do make deep inroads as I think has been suggested it won't be Britain industrial centres being ravaged by war. Economically Britain could come out proportionally ahead of the other European powers from such a conflict. [As it did to OTL but that that was it was realtively less disasterous for Britain than the continental powers. Here you might see a significant absolute increase in Britain's economic power as it produces equipment for the allies.

Lend Lease, for instance, seems less likely; giving Europeans weapons for free to fight for their colonies doesn't seem like it'd be politically popular in Europe. When you consider that Britain was already running out of foreign reserves in 1941 OTL....

I presume you mean the US there. It will continue to be hostile to any international co-operation that is not seen as in its immediate interests. Britain in those radically different circumstances will not be desperate enough to have to accept such terms nor have a leader as short-sighted as Churchill.

But it's interesting. Britain might be more determiend to keep the Stirling Bloc than OTL, a further blow to Anglo-American relations.

No doubt. Since we won't be so totally crushed economically sterling will continue to have more significance in the wider world economy.

It's hard not to get a bit jingoistic in this scene, but Japan still has some advantages that'll take time to hammer out.

There's a lot of hard fighting ahead but Japan has serious economic and social restrictions that will limit its ability to oppose the alliance its just created. Not to mention the weakness of its military. Huge numbers of fanatical but poorly equipped infantry can cause problems, especially in point defence sitaution. [Presuming they have the discipline that the Japanese army generally lacked in this period]. However on a broad front and against well equipped mechanised forces they can be rather vulnerable, especially with a local population that really have cause to hate them.

Given our hindsight knowledge Japan could be defeated relatively easily, albeit a process that takes some time. It's unlikely to go that way for the allies, if only for the fog of war. However they are basically too heavily outnumbered and outclassed in most industrial production.

Steve

[stevep]

Originally Posted by 037771

This is true i think. Are we going to see application of this overwhelming force, followed by the British tendency to muck things up early on (as per every other war since 1850 that the UK has been involved in)?

1850. Where the hell do you get that date from? ~850 I could believe. Part of the mucking things up has already occurred as we got caught with our pants down from the fact that the Japanese were able to launch what I presume was a carrier strike on Singapore. There will be other problems both because we're never ready for war when it starts and also probably still some racism leading to an underestimation of the enemy. However we have too much of an industrial base and experience of large scale war organisation from WWI coupled with the anger at the Japanese attack. Not to mention a number of allies.

Really? I thought he was being even-handed....it is pretty inevitable (in general terms) after all that the British Empire was going to fall if it got into any type of serious contest in the late 30's/40's...

Wonder why you think that? Against Germany, America or the SU yes. Against anyone else 1-1 I would back Britain under most circumstances. In this case its even better as we have allies and our home base is secure while Japan is vulnerable to application of sea and air power. [The former we have a lot of experience at and the latter 30-40's Britain is putting a lot of work into, albeit not always that efficiently].

Unless you mean that you would expect the empire to fade away after a major conflict. I would expect that because, in terms of the large areas of rule over alien subjects i.e. India, Africa and the ME direct rule was on its way out anyway, whether or not any war occurs.

Steve

[stevep]

Originally Posted by The Sandman

Two things: First, what's going on with Thailand? If they came in on the Japanese side, as seems likely, that should help with Japanese logistics.

Why would Thailand stick its neck into the noose for Japan? Its virtually surrounded by allied territory. Furthermore it has no reason to aid a highly expansionist state in removing the powers that are most likely to protect it against that same state. OTL as they came under pressure from Japan in 41 the Thai government was willing to make common cause against Japan if Britain would support them. Unfortunately given how thinly stretched Britain was at that time we couldn't do that. Even them some of the Thai forces put up significant opposition against the Japanese landings.

Second, if the IJA has the same strength as in OTL 1941, the divisions not being used to secure the Philippines in TTL are presumably available to use elsewhere. Such as, say, Malaya. Unless you've already used them in Vietnam, but then you still should have the OTL divisions ready to go in Malaya on day one. And as previous posters have mentioned, the Japanese all but have to go for it; taking Singapore from the land side is probably the only reasonable method to use, and Malaya itself had some resources the Japanese needed.

That, the lack of a commitment in the Philippines, is about the only advantage Japan has compared to OTL. However think there was only about 2 divs for the bulk of the campaign and the Philippines were within easy range of several Japanese bases.

To ship forces to Malaya and maintain them there is a much bigger problem, both logistically and in terms of the oppisition you could get. Especially since 1st the japanese need to seize bases in French Indo-China. They can manage some carriers strikes on Malaya, although that could get expensive once the British are on a war footing, but they can't lauch a serious invasion without secure control of both French Indo-China and Thailand. The latter looks highly unlikely while the former Faeelin seems to have allowed fairly easily but would take time and blood.

And if Singapore's OTL water issues still stand, then the city will eventually fall if the Japanese besiege it. I can see Singapore becoming TTL's version of Bataan and Corregidor, with Monty being evacuated to Australia while promising to return at some unspecified date. Except maybe worse, since a besieged Singapore with this sort of army would be something the RN couldn't just abandon, and that could therefore easily be used to try to draw the RN into a trap on its approach to the city.

If the Japanese gained control of most of Malaya but that seems highly unlikely. I think Faeelin has already mentioned that the invasion of Malaya was a desperate measure that failed. Barring something very dramatic we have already seen the Japanese high water mark.

Steve

[The Sandman]

To be honest, I'd actually consider the Thais more likely to join Japan than in OTL, since Japan needs them a lot more. Without the advantage of a prostrate France to seize Indochina from, Japan NEEDS bases in the region, and Thailand is literally the only place that isn't already under someone else's control. The Japanese, even given the lack of foresight in their foreign policy, should still be willing to promise the Thais considerably more than in OTL in exchange for support. And I can see the Thais as willing to empathize, at least a little, with the one other country in Asia that managed to avoid getting dismembered and humiliated by the Europeans.

This would make the Thai situation post-war worse, though, since they would be far more willing cobelligerants of Japan than in OTL.

And to be honest, I'm proposing greater Japanese success not only because I think they could have managed it but also because it makes it more narratively interesting. If the British simply curbstomp the Japanese, with the carrier raid on Singapore ultimately relatively inconsequential in respect to the actual outcome of the war and also the only major loss the British suffer (Hong Kong, being recognized by everyone as completely and utterly indefensible, doesn't count), there really isn't any good reason for the Empire to have the sort of problems that finished it off in OTL.

[Faeelin]

Originally Posted by 037771

This is true i think. Are we going to see application of this overwhelming force, followed by the British tendency to muck things up early on (as per every other war since 1850 that the UK has been involved in)?

We'll see. Bear in mind that Britain probably has Seafires in the ATL, since it's spent much less on strategic bombing.

Really? I thought he was being even-handed....it is pretty inevitable (in general terms) after all that the British Empire was going to fall if it got into any type of serious contest in the late 30's/40's...

Is it?

I have to admit, part of me has some ideas for Evil Britain, based about how Britain was exploiting the colonies after WW2. If you give them a war that shakes things up enough to shift around their management of the colonies, without bleeding them as badly as WW2 did, ouch.

Manfr: That was fantastic. Thanks!

Originally Posted by TheSandman

Two things: First, what's going on with Thailand? If they came in on the Japanese side, as seems likely, that should help with Japanese logistics

Would Thailand be as willing to leap in on the Japanese side, though? Even OTL they hemmed and hawed for a few days.

Another thing to remember is that in OTL Britain had the world's largest carrier fleet in 1940. I do not say that this remains the same; but I do think that this suggests Singapore will be harder to take than it seems at first glance. We'll see.

[Faeelin]

Originally Posted by The Sandman

And to be honest, I'm proposing greater Japanese success not only because I think they could have managed it but also because it makes it more narratively interesting. If the British simply curbstomp the Japanese, with the carrier raid on Singapore ultimately relatively inconsequential in respect to the actual outcome of the war and also the only major loss the British suffer (Hong Kong, being recognized by everyone as completely and utterly indefensible, doesn't count), there really isn't any good reason for the Empire to have the sort of problems that finished it off in OTL.

Oh, but a British Empire that emerges victorious will be a far more... interest place than OTL.

::Cackles gleefully::

[Hendryk]

Originally Posted by Faeelin

Few at the time foresaw the struggle’s conclusion though, and the prediction of a schoolboy at Raffles College was undoubtedly apt. When the headmaster asked what the first explosion was, Lee Kuan Yew, the future Prime Minister of Malaysia, replied, “That was the end of the British Empire.”

Excellent about Lee--and Malaysia.

Originally Posted by Faeelin

He held the Japanese demand for surrender in his hand, looking around. His family were liberal, for Tories. How could he ask these men to die pointlessly for an empire that was not their own, men who had already risked their lives for another’s crown and country? He turned to his NCO, Naik Singh, and handed him the note. “I am going to ask for terms.”

Naik took the note, and smilingly, slapped his commanding officer across the face. “You mean well, Colonel, but I would appreciate you do not insult us again.”

Lane rubbed his face and responded, feeling his eyes become oddly moist. “Quite right, old chap. My apologies.”

He suggested surrender? To a Sikh?

[037771]

Originally Posted by stevep

1850. Where the hell do you get that date from? ~850 I could believe.

George Orwell...Ive become a big fan of 'The Lion and the Unicorn'

Originally Posted by stevep

Unless you mean that you would expect the empire to fade away after a major conflict. I would expect that because, in terms of the large areas of rule over alien subjects i.e. India, Africa and the ME direct rule was on its way out anyway, whether or not any war occurs.

Steve

I mean this paragraph, along the lines of 'if the Empire gets into a conflict, its only a matter of kicking the door in and the whole rotten structure falling down'. Commenting on the inevitability....not the actual conflict. I mean come now, Britain losing? Heavens forbid....[sips tea and dons his steel helmet]

[The Sandman]

Originally Posted by Faeelin

Oh, but a British Empire that emerges victorious will be a far more... interest place than OTL.

::Cackles gleefully::

I'm not debating that they would win. But having a more difficult time of it would make things more interesting, if only because the independence movements in the places overrun by the Japanese and the need to rebuild a significant chunk of the RN, not to mention that the Brits presumably take over the role of propping up Chiang in China, will divert British efforts away from the Continent. And will likely make Britain nastier, since they also wouldn't have had the effects of the European War impairing their ability to produce men and equipment to fight the partisans.

And because the British might not be willing to pull the fat out of the fire for the French and Dutch without some sort of postwar payment.

As far as Thailand, what I'm suggesting is that this is the one bit of common sense the Japanese possess in terms of foreign policy; namely, that they've been making a concerted effort to bribe/coax the Thais into joining them for at least the last year to year-and-a-half before the war starts. Since they would not have had the opportunity to steal Indochina from the French prior to general war, geography alone dictates that obtaining Thailand's help goes from useful to essential for the Japanese to be able to mount a decent war effort in SE Asia.

And the British carrier fleet would have the problem that 1)any ships actually in Singapore when the Japanese hit it will be sunk, to the detriment of hitting other ships if necessary and 2) that the sea approaches to Singapore have to come through relatively narrow straits and therefore can be interdicted quite easily. Once Singapore is besieged, I think the British would be under immense pressure to make at least one attempt to relieve it, an attempt that would probably go poorly due to geography and lingering underestimation of their opponent. Also, unless the US is sharing its intelligence intercepts, the British may not have the same initial decryption advantage as the US did in OTL. And they won't have had the benefit of two years of war to improve their ASW tactics, meaning that the IJN submarine arm might actually have a golden opportunity to be useful for a change.

The British will eventually win, but they'd win it by coming overland back through Burma, and potentially by sending British troops into China to expel the Japanese from key areas that would be needed as a base to deal with the Home Islands.

Also, Japan would ultimately be in much worse shape because the British, lacking an A-bomb, would just end up blockading Japan instead while Bomber Harris systematically burns out cities and infrastructure from bases in China, and then Taiwan and the Ryukyus once those are taken. Figure between 5 and 10 megadeaths on the Japanese side just from starvation before they finally surrender.

EDIT: And just for fun, perhaps you could call this whole segment of the TL "West Wind, Clear"?

[stevep]

Originally Posted by 037771

George Orwell...Ive become a big fan of 'The Lion and the Unicorn'

Never read it I must admit. Guessing his view on the history of Anglo-Scottish relations?

I mean this paragraph, along the lines of 'if the Empire gets into a conflict, its only a matter of kicking the door in and the whole rotten structure falling down'. Commenting on the inevitability....not the actual conflict. I mean come now, Britain losing? Heavens forbid....[sips tea and dons his steel helmet]

Ah! Afraid I missed the sarcasm. [That's why I used the symbols in my reply about 850AD, although it is rather too accurate unfortunately]. There does seem to be a fair amount of glee at the idea of British suffering on the thread.

Steve

[stevep]

Guys

Apart from the unrealistic ideas about the chances of Japan making such huge gains in those circumstances, or the Thais committing suicide one other dubious assumption is that the conflict will be fought to the bitter end. Britain will be enraged about the attack and also want to regain prestige after being caught napping. Also, presuming a similar Japan to OTL, details of the Japanese atrocities especially when more comes out from China will generate a lot of anger. However, especially if it looks like there's a major conflict developing in Europe with the Soviets, I rather suspect that the allies won't be intending to march victorious through Tokyo. Defeat the Japanese heavily, destroy their naval strength and show their no match for Britain, remove potnetial dangerous bases and drive them out of China and the Europeans will probably settle for that. Don't forget there's no equivalent of Nazi Germany to generate a desire for a decisive and total victory. The brutality of the Japanese will prompt some desire for a total victory but I suspect most people will be more interested in just removing them from most/all their colonies. [If there is concern about Stalinist Russia and signs that a chastened Japan might be willing to defend Manchuria I could see them being allowed to keep that, which would be bad for the Koreans unfortunately].

Steve

[Montie]

Well, read through this entire TL today, and I have to admit it is possible that we could have very well lived through this.

Good to see the Finns still provided a somewhat stout fight for the Soviets. (Second Generation Finnish American here)

I'll be interested to see what you have the Americans bringing to the party, considering they've probably been ignored about as much as a major power could be during such a turbulent TL.

Keep up the good work!