Holding Out for a Hero: Gustav Stresemann Survives

[Faeelin]

Originally Posted by Kabraloth

Joachim Fernau, 1909 - 1988, German writer and artist of a quite enthralling style, although a German conservative (of the pre-Weimar variety) and very, very anti-american (although very, very readable, much of my interest of history stems from reading his books).

I could pull and translate some quotes.

Yes please.

The name does sound familiar, BTW.

Things are definitely coming to a head.

It does make a difference, in strategic terms, that China gets to add tanks to its arsenal while the fighting is taking place north of the Yangzi--that part of the country is well-suited to a war of movement.

A couple thoughts. First, how do you think most of the stuff gets there? The logistics suck. So, not enough to make a huge difference.

A lot of the stuff actually went in through Guangzhou. Must've been interesting, sailing past Japan.

(And also indicates how easy it would be to stop the flow! Just take Vladistovok!)

[Hendryk]

Originally Posted by Faeelin

(And also indicates how easy it would be to stop the flow! Just take Vladistovok!)

By all means let's have the Japanese try to take Vladivostok

On second thought, I'd rather not. A shooting war between Japan and the USSR would increase the chances of Communist takeover in China, and having happen in OTL was plenty bad enough.

[Kabraloth]

All right. Those are from "Halleluja - Die Geschichte der USA", imo his most bitter work.

"How complicated!
The Americans are not complicated.
They love to simplify. The ones they defeated are evil, and all, who had been held down by the defeated, are good."

"I was scared of two parts of this book: one is the end, the other I've brought behind me now. I can't even say what paralyzes me so.
I'm writing about thing long past, of things which have repeated themselves during mankind's history so many times and still repeat themselves. Of dying, of killing, of humilating and depravement. But this time, I think, it's not the suffering who hurt my heart, but the triumphators who's final judgement is yet to come.
I can, if need be, understand Pizarro and Cortez, but not these people who, without reason, without hatred, not even with a whisp of madness removed a people from the face of the earth.
Incas and Aztecs were hit like from a natural disaster, like a vulcan eruption. The Indians were exterminated by brains which already belonged to a mutated human race. I know the terrifying things that happened in Hellas, in Rome, by the Inquisition, in the French Revolution, in the camps of the British, the Russians, the Germans, in China, in Spain, in Abyssinia - I know that humans are miscarried creatures of the universe, the the mind is the adversary of the soul, that we are miserable killers and destroyers, worse than a predator.
But really scary is the human, when he does his deeds without madness, without intoxication, without flag, without belief, even without hatred. They did not even feel hatred, nothing. They lived eye to eye with the silent question of god, without holding their breathes even once; without even understanding what god wanted.
No other peoples have bought millions of robbed negroes and enslaved and in two centuries killed off a million Indians. If only they had at least done it in delusion!
Walt Whitman, one of the greatest poests of America, jubilated: 'Our United States are like the perfect poem.'"

"As you have noticed, the most shining flower of James' pragmatism is "freedom". Breaking away from the old ethic, breaking away from the idealistic debt to society, breaking away from the old categories of thinking (Kant: Quantity, Quality, Relation, Modality), breaking away from the soul - that is only the colourful wrapping of the word "free".
[...]
One has to gain a strong suspicion that the human does not want to be "free" from everything, just from things he does not like. Thereby follows a conclusion that all brainless will have to hear with great regret, namely the conclusion that the word "freedom" says something, but doesn't say what. It's a word like "weather". Do you like weather? It depends, doesn't it? Exactly.
Using the word freedom is almost always a slogan, a fanfare. It has a dangerous fascination. It's mostly the seducers that use it and the idiots which inhale it.
[..]
"Freedom" became the American's mistress, even if she continually betrayed him and turned him into a "Professor Unrat".

To honour this whore, the Americans erected a giant statue in front of the New York Harbour in 1886, which was a present from France and which, as the French are jesters, is hollow on the inside."

"The liberation of Cuba went smoothly. How convenient that Benjamin Harrison had provided a modern fleet. Now, even more so than during the manoevers, it showed that the money was invested very wisely.
The Spanish had nothing to challenge this. The freed Cubans didn't, either. Madrid decided to give up Cuba and retreat with all ships and troops.
That's what they believed! The American Admiral prevented this, he shot down the spanish fleet with all their chock-a-blocked soldiers.
Spain, the old, evil lion, didn't show their teeth because of a simple reason: it didn't have any left. Unrest was spreading throughout its robbed colonial empire; America could, just like on a menu, choose its next meal. They were extatic.
[...]
The Phillipines were pretty far away from America, but that's no problem for a fast ship. The fleet was on its way. In the bay of Manila it met the Spanish war ships, immediatly attacked them and sunk them. Pacifying the land - almost, I'd said "conquering" - was vastly more difficult.
Oh, the natives were so stupid, for them White Man was White Man and one as bothersome as the other.
How offensive for America! They'd have to take drastic measures.
[...]
Where those good years?
Those were damn good years!"

"The law with which America entered the 20th century, forced the hypertrophic collossus into this vicious circle. All world has to work and earn money so they can buy things from America, and they must not work, or America will be jobless.
In truth, this is how it's been until today, and that's how it is going to stay as long as the USA exists.
There's only one thing that will for a moment prevent their stegosaur fate and turn the clock back again and again: wars.
Someone who doesn't understand that today is a fool.
Who dares to spell it out is probably one, too.
America is, as we've seen a throughly peace-loving nation and damns war. But it has to enter every one."

"Now we are standing in our own time.
For America, the world right now consists of two parts.
There's the bad peoples who have to be educated, and there's the other ones who "want to be as good as ourselves" - to cite it word for word."

[alt_historian]

Originally Posted by Faeelin

In Search of a Quiet Life

...

And what of America in all of this? Where is the world’s largest democracy, with a third of the world’s industry? Where is its Sinophile president? Whatever his goals, his hands are constrained by America’s isolationist movement. Americans have no desire to die in far away places for far away people, and so his hands are tied. America’s industrialists, the people believed, got them into the First World War; and so they have no desire to let these “merchants of death” get them into a war with Japan.

And so America refuses to act, and American oil fuels bombers that devastate cities, while trucks built in Detroit carry the Imperial Japanese Army into the Chinese heartland. But cheer up! The people of America sleep soundly at night, knowing that this time they are not merchants of death.

I really liked this bit. (well, I liked all of it, but...)

Hadn't thought about it that way before.

[Magnificate]

I read your timeline with great anticipation and tension is still building up. I enjoy it greatly. And I must add the comments are also very entertaining to read.

"I suppose there'll be a war now, hmm? All that running around and shooting at one another. You would have thought sooner or later it'd go out of fashion."

It seems pretty clear that there will be war. But, aside from Babylon 5 references, it most probably won't be an Europe-shattering event. Germany would be quite content to keep this a quick and limited operation - unless you plan the events to spin out of Stresemanns control. I would be pleasently supriced.
I can't wait to see just how much would Poland lose in the event of the war. Danzig and corridor is pretty much given. But whether Germans manage to grab and keep Posen as well - thats the interesting question. After a victory, could Stresemann push for a regime change in Poland and put it firmly into the German orbit?
You also mentioned some sort of compensation for Poland. I wonder what kind of compensation could Germans possibly offer for the Corridor, Silesia (?) and Posen (?). Russian lands were unavaible without a war with USSR and not really that desireble to start with. Zaolzie also seems out of the question, since Germany right now seems to have better relations with Prague that with Warsaw. Protectorate over Lithuania? From the narrative it seems like its a disposable nation for Stresemann.

[Susano]

Stresemann doesnt want Posen back. Probably not even the Polish Half of Upper Silesia. Its all about the damn corridor... one idea I had is to have Gdingen (forgot the Polish name) and surrounding area to remain as Polish exclave, with a Polish extraterritorial street/rail going through a German corridor... so Poland would retain its sea access. In a way.

[Magnificate]

Originally Posted by Susano

Its all about the damn corridor...

Indeed. Both sides wanted and needed this of land. Danzig being a free city exacerbated this issue, since, as you said in a different thread, Germans regarded it as

a Polish protectorate anyways.

while Poles treated it as being in fact in a German sphere of influence.

one idea I had is to have Gdingen (forgot the Polish name)

It's Gdynia.

one idea I had is to have Gdingen (forgot the Polish name) and surrounding area to remain as Polish exclave, with a Polish extraterritorial street/rail going through a German corridor... so Poland would retain its sea access. In a way.

Thats an innovative aproach and a reasonable concession. I'll think it over and comment more tomorrow.

[Faeelin]

Originally Posted by Magnificate

It seems pretty clear that there will be war. But, aside from Babylon 5 references, it most probably won't be an Europe-shattering event. Germany would be quite content to keep this a quick and limited operation - unless you plan the events to spin out of Stresemanns control. I would be pleasently supriced.

Can you have a limited war?

Let's say Germany beats Poland. Woo!

I imagine that it won't take Posen, but no German would abstain from restoring the old Silesian border; since the 1921 Plebiscite, in German eyes, was rigged.

The fact that this cripples Poland economy is so much the better. But, this would make Germany the hegemon in Eastern Europe, no? The Little Entente is broken, France is humiliated...

Britain would not be happy about this. And to defeat Poland, the Germans would have to agree to something with the USSR, perhaps giving Poland a new border along the Curzon line. This will not go over well in Britain or France.

So, tensions harden. Meanwhile, a victory against Poland would only galvanize those who favor the military in Germany. France clearly won't oppose them; Britain won't, within reason. Czechoslovakia's neutrality may well be disposable, in this situation.

It would be like Germany had, within limits, won WW1. An economic empire stretching from Stockholm to Sofia, a harmless Polish buffer... It's a long, dark century of rye and iron. I would argue that this is probably better than OTLs Eastern Europe, but.

After a victory, could Stresemann push for a regime change in Poland and put it firmly into the German orbit?

Economically? Sure. Germany would control its best coal and iron fields, and also its foreign trade by controlling the coast.

Politically? Umm. Maybe.

[Faeelin]

Originally Posted by Magnificate

Thats an innovative aproach and a reasonable concession. I'll think it over and comment more tomorrow.

Is it? The majority of the Corridor is Polish ATM. And such a route could be cut off whenever Germany wanted.



BTW, Good Habit, any thoughts about where the Social Democrats go in Germany?

[SeanB]

Oh, Germany's 1914 border in the East has got to be restored at the very least! The pride and dignity of the German people demands it!

[Susano]

Originally Posted by HSB

Oh, Germany's 1914 border in the East has got to be restored at the very least! The pride and dignity of the German people demands it!

As was said in the thread, not even Stresemann himself wanted that.

[SeanB]

Originally Posted by Susano

As was said in the thread, not even Stresemann himself wanted that.

Yeah, but I do.

[Faeelin]

Originally Posted by HSB

Oh, Germany's 1914 border in the East has got to be restored at the very least! The pride and dignity of the German people demands it!

What does Germany need a bunch of Poles for?

[SeanB]

Originally Posted by Faeelin

What does Germany need a bunch of Poles for?

Prestige value, of course. To erase the "injustices of Versailles" and all that. Of course, I'm looking at things from a rather Prussian mindset I suppose.

[Faeelin]

Originally Posted by Hendryk

On second thought, I'd rather not. A shooting war between Japan and the USSR would increase the chances of Communist takeover in China, and having happen in OTL was plenty bad enough.

Sidenote: Ic an't believe I forgot Normohan.

[Magnificate]

Is it? The majority of the Corridor is Polish ATM. And such a route could be cut off whenever Germany wanted.

And yet what are the alternatives? Status quo? Germans taking Danzig an building it's own exterritorial road? That's a rather modest gain for a won war. Germany taking the whole corridor for themselves? I'm pretty sure Poland would want to keep something than lose everything. You are right that this solution gives Germany a great measure of control over Poland. In case of any future crisis Stresemann could threaten to seize Gdynia and close the exteritorial road, not unlike OTL Russia threating to cut gas supplies.
The problems with this solution is also the fact, that it seems like a temporary solution. It would also dependend on Poles trusting the German goodwill - and that depends on just how Germans behaved themselves during the war.

Can you have a limited war?

That IMHO depends on two things:
1. Whether German have a suitable pretext to start this war. I could be a genuine stumble of Polish polician (BTW, how are Polish politics different from OTL?) or some manufactured pretext. If the war is not "justified" then Franch and/or Italian press and public might push for intervention during first crital weeks. Would Poles themselves push for war and why?
2. Speed of German advance. If you could achieve your objectives and force Poles to the negotiation table relatively quickly (Corridor and Silesia could be taken in a week or two, it's Posen and Warsaw that pose problems) then war wouldn't really escalate and Germans wouldn't need to depend on Soviet help.

Is that possible? Maybe. It depends on relative strenght of both armies. Would Stresemann commit as much forces as Hitler did OTL? Would it be possible to emulate OTL September Campaign speed? How well are Poles prepared? Do they know of Germans plans? Are they fully mobilized? (That's any interesting question BTW, since without British guarantees (not probable ITTL) and French pressure (also unprobable as France seems more hawkish ITTL) Poles wouldn't bother to stop/delay their mobilization). And Stresemann couldn't really rely on suprice invasion, could he? Rather we will see some slowly brewing and escalating crisis.

So maybe German victory is not so certain after all?

I would argue that this is probably better than OTLs Eastern Europe, but.

Indeed. But people from this ATL won't know that and they would compare their situation to the pre-war status.

[Faeelin]

Originally Posted by Magnificate

In case of any future crisis Stresemann could threaten to seize Gdynia and close the exteritorial road, not unlike OTL Russia threating to cut gas supplies.

Ugh. The fact that the Putin similarities are so common is the only thing stopping me from doing the "Cartel-buster" post.

The problems with this solution is also the fact, that it seems like a temporary solution. It would also dependend on Poles trusting the German goodwill - and that depends on just how Germans behaved themselves during the war.

I think that even if the Germans behave as angels of light, the Poles still wouldn't trust them. In Polish eyes a strategically vital territory full of Poles has been taken away.

1. Whether German have a suitable pretext to start this war. I could be a genuine stumble of Polish polician (BTW, how are Polish politics different from OTL?) or some manufactured pretext. If the war is not "justified" then Franch and/or Italian press and public might push for intervention during first crital weeks. Would Poles themselves push for war and why?

I can't see Poland pushing for war. Why would they? I imagine that Poland's government is the same as OTL; the details of it may, of course, vary, and probably deserve a post.

Is there any way to get the generals out of power? Hrmm. It doesn't seem like the alternatives would be much better.

2. Speed of German advance. If you could achieve your objectives and force Poles to the negotiation table relatively quickly (Corridor and Silesia could be taken in a week or two, it's Posen and Warsaw that pose problems)

Would the Poles give in? I mean, they might decide to keep fighting, no? Any day now, the French will cross the Rhine...

Is that possible? Maybe. It depends on relative strenght of both armies. Would Stresemann commit as much forces as Hitler did OTL? Would it be possible to emulate OTL September Campaign speed? How well are Poles prepared? Do they know of Germans plans? Are they fully mobilized? (That's any interesting question BTW, since without British guarantees (not probable ITTL) and French pressure (also unprobable as France seems more hawkish ITTL) Poles wouldn't bother to stop/delay their mobilization).

Here are some counterpoints.

-Unlike the Nazis, who didn't trust the Polish Germans, Stresemann will be glad to use them for intelligence work. This has some effect, although how much I dunno.

-While Germany's put less money overall into armaments, in some ways they're spending it better.

I think overall the war will take longer, but I think a Polish victory, in a limited war, is probably in doubt.

Indeed. But people from this ATL won't know that and they would compare their situation to the pre-war status.

Ayup.

It's a shame there's no way out of this solution.

[Magnificate]

I agree with your points.

Now, I guess we will have to wait and see whether Stresemann is willing to gamble on such a conflict or will he wait until international situation is more favourable.

[seraphim74]

Originally posted by Faeelin

Unlike the Nazis, who didn't trust the Polish Germans, Stresemann will be glad to use them for intelligence work. This has some effect, although how much I dunno.

Actually, AFAIK Nazi Germany DID use ethnic Germans in Poland as saboteurs and spies (not all of them, of course). Problem was that after Piłsudski's death Polish goverment became increasingly nationalistic and ethnic Germans weren't exactly trusted by Poles, so their ability to gather information was somewhat limited. However, there were numerous cases of Polish Germans actively supporting Wehrmacht in 1939, including shooting at Polish soldiers, policemen and boy-scouts, especially in Silesia and Pomerania (Bloody Sunday in Bydgoszcz/Bromberg is a special case); they were also certainly useful as guides and spies on local level.

[Iñaki]

Originally posted by Faeelin
I think he will show up. But would he be as anti-German?

Respect to Barthou I admit that my conclussions about his methods, politics and character are based in books about European history that depicts the beginnings of his international policy of trying to isolate Germany not in direct biographies or analyisis about him (because he was murdered soon in 1934 we have little evidence about how it could have developed his policiy in future years, in any case it is clear that Barthou has a lot of more will, sincerity and gains to act actively than his successor Laval -although this last followed the Barthou politics at least in part-).

My conclusions respect to Barthou politics in this ATL are:

- the politics of creating a serie of alliances to prevent germany expansion would exist like in OTL but probably in a more patience way, in OTL, the nazis were so agressive and nationalists that Barthou realised soon the dangers and tended to act quickly and made the most possible number of alliances, in this ATL it could be made in a more patience way, trying to consolidate a clear alliance (like Italy for example) and not making so tuttifruti alliances in which France practically try to ally herself with nations that sometimes were enemies one of the other.

- Barthou surely would show a lot of respect to Stresseman, he would consider Stresseman not a barbarian like Hitler but a man that truly want the best for Germany, the problem is that Barthou clearly also realised that this could means also the worse for France, Barthou would tend to see Stresseman as making the same labour as he in the task of french foreign minister is making: providing the best for his country, unfortunately Barthou is french and Stresseman german if Barthou was german surely he and Stresseman would be great friends, but here they would be adversaries, having a lot of mutual respect but knowing clearly that his politics not are the best for the other country.


Barthou is not anti-german, simplily is so french patriote that he realises that a strong Germany could mean a great danger for France, the difference with OTL is that probably he would consider Stresseman a respectful adversary more than a barbarian enemy like in the case of Hitler.