Spain in the Central Powers

On February 23, 1916, Portugal arrested German ships anchored in Portuguese ports, causing the German government to declare war.

What if, rather than openly declare war on a country they had no means of attacking, Germany sent an early version of the Zimmerman telegram to Spain, offering it whatever territorial concessions from France and Portugal that it pleased if it joined the Central Powers and struck at Lisbon and the 'back door to France'?

Now, I'm not knowledgeable about relations between Restoration-era Spain and Imperial Germany, but looking at it, Spain seems to have been in a similar position to the Ottoman Empire at the time; growing social discontent, radical groups, etc, after a long period of seemingly constant decline from the status as one of the greatest powers in the world into the position of a backwater, suffering humiliation after humiliation. And, like the Ottomans, they might be under the impression that they could regain some lost glory through victories against their traditional rivals, or just be able to take a bite out of France's slice of the colonial pie.

So what would happen? Would an attack in France's flank be the straw that broke the camel's back? Or would Spain simply be crushed and driven back to Madrid, sparking an early civil war?

Discuss.

IIRC Spain was split internally about whether to enter the war and on whose side - the military favoured the Central Powers but the royal family was pro-British, and some treaty from the late 19th century also existed between Britain and Spain, and whilst not entirely relevant was the closest they had to any alliance.

But perhaps if the king dies, which in this age of assassinations and anarchists isn't entirely impossible, and presumably we need to blow up the queen too since she IS British. But with them dead, the Regent would IIRC be a Bourbon-Siciliy prince, with the new king a minor. In such a circumstance, the military could exert sufficient pressure on the government to get an intervention

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

1914 Spain was in no shape to fight in a war akin to WW1 - its National Debt was huge, its industrial capacity was limited and judging Spanish military performance in the Rif War of 1920 when she was only bailed out by the intervention of France, still possessed inherent weaknesses that went as far back as the Napoleonic campaigns.

If Spain did the stupid thing and join the Central Powers, there is a good likelihood that the Entente powers would go straight to the Catalonians - who'd rebelled in 1909 - and promise independence in return for assistance. That would tie up Spanish resources quite nicely. Plus the economic boom that the Spanish experienced mainly because of the desperate need by France for resources and manufactured items would be non-existant and what would be left of Spain would be a very poor, backward land.

Let's see. We have Spain, the Basque Republic, the Catalan and Valencian Soviets, the Balearic Archbishopric (the conservative Catalans have to go someplace), and the Galician Republic, all speaking different languages.

Never mind "Balkanisation" - if this TL happened, we'd have "Iberianisation".

ljofa said:

Never mind "Balkanisation" - if this TL happened, we'd have "Iberianisation".

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But only if the Allies won, otherwise the Germans would just help their Spanish allies regain control of the rebel provinces

IMVHO of course

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Apart from the debatable proposition of regaining some colonial territory and the possibility of German assistance in consolidating power/preventing fractionation, the key questions are (1) how would Spain benefit, and (2) at what reward/risk ratio? Seems to me from what I've seen above that the answers tend toward (1) not very much tangibly, and (2) a rather low reward:risk proportion.

I'll admit freely to not knowing much about Iberian politics/culture, so I don't have a good read on how cohesive Spain is as an entity--but I'm getting the impression that it's a more-or-less cold-soldered aggregation of somewhat-related ethnic groups whose specific dialects are sort of similar. And the corollary is that "Spanish" as we know it is more or less one dialect written large? Is any of that close to the mark?

I do not believe a participation in the Great War and a defeat would lead to "iberianization/balkanization". Nationalism was still rather weak in these days. The rebellion of 1909 had more to do with anarchism and the recruitment policy than with true nationalism.

However the key is what Spain would get from participation: some colonies in Africa, Gibraltar. IMHO, you would need an earlier POD in order to have a Spain in a better shape. If not, you would probably have a civil war in the middle of a world war.

WW1 has been observed to be the last of the great Nationalistic wars, before ideology began to factor into Weltpolitik - in this case if Spain did join the Central Powers, I cannot see how this would suddenly unite the country and exploiting the divide between nationalistic groups, much the same way the Germans did in Ireland in 1916 is certainly within the confines of possibility as this real world example points out. France tried it on the Catholic Bavarians, Russia tried it with the various Slavic groups in the AH Empire and there's no reason to believe the Entente powers wouldn't try it with Spain. A century of economic depression would polarise the Spanish population and a little prodding would ignite a powder-keg.

I think that Spain would be promised Gibraltar, French Morocco, Sardinia and Corsica, perhaps British and French Guyana in return for entry into the conflict.

My knowledge of WWI and the state of things is fairly poor...but would Spain's entry into the war be effective? Could Spain make a positive cumulative difference to the Central Powers, or just be another front with more of the same bloody useless crap?

I doubt France would spare the resources to take major offensive action into Spain. More likely a limited mountain war in the Pyrenees (ie a smaller Alpine War)

Now this might tip the balance for the Germans during their last great offensive in 1918 due to fewer French troops on the Western Front but its dubious.

As already metioned, Spain could just as easily become another casualty of Post-War extremism, economic depression etc. and considering how bad Spain suffered in the 1920s/30s in OTL, this could be catastrophic.

Perhaps Spain in TTL would be the parrallel of OTL's Italy. Victorious, but not quite getting what it was promised, leading to a radical government coming into power.

Regardless Spain would almost certainly not come out of WWI stronger, whether they won or not. Look at Portugal, they were involved in WWI very limitedly, even on the winning side, yet the economic damage triggered her traditional, chaotic 'Latin' style of politics to go into hyperspeed, leading to the Estado Novo regime

Here's my take on the Situation for what its worth. At this time Spain basically tried to stay out of European affairs out of fear of loosing what little they still had. However when Britain and France agreed Spain usually went along for a ride. So it makes sense for them to get involved on the Entente. However what have they to gain from it? Nothing. There is no way Britain would give up Gibraltar to get Spain onside since they're not that powerful or useful. What claims could be made if they joined the Central powers? Well, Portugal seems a bit far fetched but Gibraltar would be obvious. Then there is the rest of Morocco and other colonies. They could even take the Basque and Catalan regions of France, but Spain was having problems with separatists.

So there are gains to be made for joining the central powers. But Spain is completely surrounded by the Entente. Britain would blockade the peninsula and wreck the economy. France to the north is protected by the Pyrenees defences so they are relatively easy to defend. The easiest entrance is through the Basque country. Just their luck. The British land forces in Portugal and attack through there (no Gallipoli?) But all is not lost for the Spanish. If somehow Germany and Spain can co-ordinate an attack at the same time I can't see how France could have the troop numbers necessary to prevent the odd breakthrough. A big push from Spain might not be as large as a big push from Germany, but Spain's front wouldn't be nearly as strongly defended. Let’s not forget France will not be receiving any recourse from Spain. If they can how on I'd imagine the US would make up the deficit eventually but how would that affect the western front.

When it comes to WWI many people forget just how close it was. All these changes add up. If Germany can get through we have a whole new war! Spain will be in serious trouble very quickly. If we give them some luck and propaganda they could survive a while. Certainly they would affect other areas. Imagine the troops and resources needed to capture occupy Spain and minus them from the western front. Now imagine Germany sees its chance and Pushes long and hard. Let’s imagine Paris taken, German subs wrecking shipping lanes now more important than ever. The Moral boost. Germany will recognise the importance Spain played and wouldn't ignore it. France looses Paris, so capital moves to Lyon? Chaos will grip the country, next factor in Russia pull out and American involvement. America will loose A LOT more men than it did historically. Will the Entente win? Maybe, maybe not, but it makes for an interesting timeline.

It is much the same as a Spain joins the Axis in WWII scenario. It all comes down to timing. If they join too early France is going to be able to respond (say moving of troops from the planned offensives into AL to the Spanish border, etc.) or if they join too late they're not really going to help Germany as Spain is too weak and will be easily knocked out.

However if they join at the right time they could do some serious damage and be a right pain in the butt.

The problem of the UK landing an army to fight in Spain means the small but vital British Army is not going to be in France to make a difference which would immensely help Germany out as France would be further stretched to cover that area and a German breakthrough could happen.

An attack by Spain on France in 1914 might just be enough to weaken the French to allow the Germans to win the Victory in 1914. Remember the Germans nearly did win and if the Spanish drew off French force it might have been enough to asure a German victory.

They would have to be very confident about a Central Powers victory, as it means they lose all their colonies and islands, even if they are confident of defending Spain itself. The only way to get them back is at negotiating table after a CP victory - that's a big risk.

I can't help but think, some Spanish leaders are going to think about what happened to their other colonies in the, then recent, Spanish-American war. Sure Britain/France and the US are difference, but in both cases the common factor was going to war with a stronger maritime power.

ljofa said:

the Catalonians - who'd rebelled in 1909 -

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The 1909 rebellion was not for independence, but because the people were tired of war.

Al lin all, the situation about the Spanish politicians -and perhaps about many people- would be this: they would look at the powers at war and would say: did any of those powers help us in 1898? Ok, let's give them the same kind of help.

Spain, if had any side to join, it was the Allied one, for the Morocco enterprise, that linked Spain to France and to the Mediterranean policy of England

The critical point is the entry of Spain into the war would mean a diversion of British and or French troops. If the British are not in France along the Channel coast then the German would be able to turn the French Flank knocking France out of the war. Peace would be made as Germany would offer terms that would end it. Russia would exit the war and Italy never enter it. Nor would Romania enter the war.

chris N said:

The critical point is the entry of Spain into the war would mean a diversion of British and or French troops. If the British are not in France along the Channel coast then the German would be able to turn the French Flank knocking France out of the war. Peace would be made as Germany would offer terms that would end it. Russia would exit the war and Italy never enter it. Nor would Romania enter the war.

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Come ON!

5,411 day necro?

Obama hadn't bee in office for two months the last time this thread was active.

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