A Veltvet divorce american style

Straha

Banned
What would have happened if, in 1861, the Yankees, led by Lincoln, had decided, without being forced to do so, merely to let the South secede without conditions? What would the world thus look like today?

If Lincoln does not have to resort to force, he can probably hold more of the border in the Union. So Kentucky stays. Missouri stays except for the small section of little Dixie on the Mississippi near New Madrid and Belmont. Arkansas splits with the bulk of the state remaining in the Union while the most developed piece along the Mississippi and Arkansas rivers goes south. A few skirmishes suffice to force a split of Texas and Oklahoma / the Indian Territories so that the area West of the line Laredo - San Antonio - Ft Worth - Tulsa stays with the Union, with Germans and Unionists moving west and diehard Dixiecrats moving East ( note this is the line past which slavery in the plantation sense becomes a climatic and thus economic joke ). The bulk of Tennessee goes with the South but East Tennessee under Andy Johnson countersecedes taking Winston County Alabama and the far West of North Carolina and far north of Georgia with him in a new Unionist state of Franklin with its capital at Knoxville.

Virginia teeters before it is pushed but Lincoln holds onto the ships out of Norfolk ( redeployed to New York along with as much navy yard supplies as can be carried ), Fortress Monoroe, the Potomac counties, Harper's Ferry
and SW Virginia. In effect Virginia is partitioned as the secessionists in Richmond prefer compromise to an honest vote on secession. Virginia's brokered secession takes North Carolina reluctantly with it.

The one real case of armed surpression of secession is in Baltimore and Eastern Maryland where 50,000 Pennsylvania and mid Western militia are needed to keep the State and the District in the Union. By not using New England or abolitionist units the more neutral opinion on the border is brought back to allegience and the secessionist isolated. The classic example is Baltimore where the street mob was Dixiecat but the economic interests of the bulk of the people were national owing to trade via the Baltimore and Ohio RR, the national road and the Chesapeake and Ohio canal.

So you now have a South with 12 states instead of the historic 13 ( no Missouri or Kentucky but a state of Oklahoma ). It is some 15% smaller by area and 20% smaller by population. It is the plantation slave states plus their most congenial southern cousins. It has economic borders but no good military ones. It has no political reason to disown their northern debts, but now being a foreign country it finds it easier to pay slowly and not exactly in full. This triggers much northern illwill and in those circles most likely to be pro Southern otherwise. Northern capital is partly replaced by British. The central government stays weak. The southern regular military is mostly focused on protecting the borders against fugitive slaves and the interior against new Nat Turners. The several states keep strong militaries.

As a free trade region, it finds it no problem allowing free trade with the North. The North reciprocates for southern goods but fights a losing battle against Brit and Euro imports brought in through Dixie ports and transshipped north.

Politically / constitutionally, Lincoln gives the Union slave states amendments requiring state consent for abolition and guaranteeing compensation at generous rates for any state that chooses to abolish slavery within its borders. The fugitive slave issue is settled by offering Federal compensation for runaways. The transcontinetal RR is made a national priority ( the golden spike in this TL is 1863 at roughly the same place in Utah) but the Southern Pacific comes a year later on the route SD - LA - LV - Phoenix - Santa Fe - Denver. Northern Pacific is done before the turn of the 70's. Republican party splits - Jacobins secede to form the Liberty party. Lincoln keeps the rest and adds many loyal Unionists in the historic post CW Republican coalition. Demovcrats keep rump of the Douglas wing plus the confirmed appeasers. National government is strengthened but to a lesser extent than in OTL from the war. Much stronger army kept to protect the RR's and try to enforce tarrifs on the Dixie border. Colorado, Nebrska, and Nevada immediately join the Union (1861). Utah admitted in 1862. Hawaiian protectorate in 1862 as a way of upraising middle finger to British lion.

Final slavery compromise. Slave owners are allowed passports to 'transit' with their property through the bulk of the Union ( unenforceable in areas controlled by Liberty Party so to some extent local option ) for specific time periods. In return slavery is abolished in DC with very generous compensation.

Overall, at the cost of a few thousand dead in riots, skirmishes and petty local fighting ( over half in Eastern Maryland) two nations are peacefully formed. Lincoln is seen as the genius who avoided a brothger's war trying to keep the Gulf states in. Three parties break as 45% Unionist, 37%
Democrats, 18% Liberty.

Dixie evolves into an economically strong ( in this TL there is no reactionary agrarian tradition to hold progress back and no Republican primacy in the nation at large to treat it as an exploitable colony ) but politically weak nation ( national government MUCH weaker than OTL although states MUCH stronger). Say by 1900 it has a per capita GNP equal to the North or the UK or Germany. Continual British pressure ultimately forces the bulk of the Southern States to emancipate ( South Carolina is the lone exception ) but the Black Codes that follow make that emancipation a formalistic point. Race relations are less publically savage (there is no need for the poor Southern white to prove his victory and manhood by rubbing the black man's nose in the dust as was true in OTL) but essentially as bleak as Jim Crow at its worst. There is no Klan because essentially what would have been the Klan is now the local sherrif's posse. Again, with no danger of political or social emancipation, there is much better black education - idiot labor doesn't produce as well - at least through vocational level but MUCH less of a black professional class ( emmigration is used a s a safety valve for those who will not kowtow). Southern industrialization is more like post WWII than preWWI.

Economically the two countries are VERY closely linked. Seperate currencies not kept at any good linkeage. National trade via specie. Local trade via borderers who do keep track of exchange rates. Continual intermigration and intermarriage among the pre1860's white ethnics. South has more migrants than in OTL but a version of the post1920 national quotas to keep it as an AngloSaxon country with only Nordic Celtic minorities.

Northern industrialization is much greater without an Agrarian South
to hold it back and fight it at every turn. Western settlement was faster.
The Indian problem was mostly solved by the early 1870's through a mixture of a much more massive military presence and reservations administered honestly by that largely Army to the point that settlers are kept off at gunpoint. Indian lands shrink by Congressional forced purchase not settler selfhelp. Tribes become solvent through mineral royalties and land rentals. Indian scout units become permanent part of Army force structure. Alaska still purchased but settled quite fast and developed even faster.

Politically the Populist, Socialist and Progressive waves are MUCH
stronger without the race issue to get in the way. Civil liberties are
weaker without the XIVth and XVth Ammendments to inhibit the states and the feds. The federal courts are much weaker stopping the left waves without the XIVth Ammendment to use as an excuse for staying government action. Make the political structure in the US more like Wilhelm's Germany but without the extreme militarists. Southern politics are less extreme on class than the North because of race but much more extreme than in OTL because race is a mostly settled issue.

Both powers are more 'imperial' than in OTL where each impede each
other's wars. Lincoln solidifies his Union majority by answering the 4
power occupation of Vera Cruz with an ultimatum. The Brits and Dutch
wisely drop out at this point. Lincoln declares war on France and Spain. Buys the Indian South/ Yucutan ( as a place of settlement for Freedmen) and
the uninhabited North+Baja ( as a sop to his capitalist / industrialist wing
for exploitation) from Juarez for guns and gold plus enough military
strength to put over his Liberal secular revolution. There was a window
of opportunity between the original VC intervention and when Juarez felt strong enough v. Maximillian to protect Mexico against other national threats. In this TL Lincoln jumps through that window.

Davis faces an immediate problem. Does he let Lincoln liberate the
slaves of the Spanish Empire? Wade Hampton preempts for him - leads an expedition to Havana. Net effect is to force the South to enter the war on Lincoln's side as a cobeligerent ( note : NOT AS ALLY ). South takes SD, Cuba, PR. Mass flight of colored population on island of SD to Hatian side, which is seized by US as protectorate. US also takes French Ant, Cayanne, and Central America. Naval war interferes with European commerce. British force armistace but not before US takes bulk of African bulge ( basically everything from Ivory Coast to Senegal except British protectorate around Freetown, Britsh Gambia and Portuguese Guinea) as a larger Liberia for freedmen, Samoa and the Spanish Pacific Islands ( but before US can mount a major expedition from San Francisco to seize Manila). Note Armistace, not peace. Neither side is willing to risk the RN against them.

The post War (1864) alliance structure is CSA - Portuguese - Brazil coalition of slaveholders v USA - Mexico liberal alliance with the UK as the balance wheel. Both alliances rely on British capital. The Tory aristocracy leans towards the slave holders and the Unionist industrial class from Liverpool and the Midlands lean towards Washington, New York and Mexico City. The Unionist south, Deleware opt for compensated abolition to help attract British capital. Missouri, Maryland and Kentucky go to county option. Large numbers of Freedmen emmigrate to the new sanctuaries in greater central America, Hati and the African Bulge. Developement of the territories seized by both alliances commences at a rapid pace including Confederate investment in Brazil and Portuguese Afrika. Disguised slave trade continues from Portuguese Africa.

Second round of the war comes when France intervenes to prevent an Autrrian loss in the Six Weeks War (1866). Slaveholders alliance sits this
one out. War is US - Prussia - Italy v Austria - Belgium - France - Spain - Denmark . Ends 1868 as follows : Germany now includes historic + Lux, Leige, Alsace, all of Lorraine (including the Brey - Longway iron ore fields), Bohemia, Morravia, Tyrolia, Denmark, Upper + Lower Austria including alpine Slovene regions. US gets Greenland, Iceland, Congo basin, Philippines, Paupa - New Guinea - W Irian, Chochin China ( lower South Vietnam including Saigon), Cambodia, Canaries, Maderias, Fernando Poo, and Equitorial Guinea. The Catholic League crushes Italy. French take Piedmont and Sardinia. Spain takes Sicily and Naples. Hapsburgs take rump of Italy including Papal States but Pope left with a full Roman citystate instead of vatican ministate. Different branches of Hapsburgs on Hungarian throne ( Franz Joseph) and Italian throne ( Maximillian). Very large Italian emmigration to New World - 25-30% of countrry leaves in next 10 years. Antwerp and Faeroes occuppiued by UK. Rump of Belgium goes to France.

In the meantime Confederate help gives Brazil all of Paraguay and protectorate over Uruguay in Paraguayan War. Argentina becomes de facto Brit protectorate. Great War of the Pacific sees US, Mexico and germany back Chile, who joins their bloc. Brazil takes protectorate over Bolivia. British take protectorate over Peru, mediate demarkation of Chilean - Argentine border and Tierra Del Fuego question. Ecudor, Columbia and Venezuela play the four blocks off against each other. Brits push Irish to emmigrate more quickly so as to create Unionist majority ( stronger and more bloody handed Ulsterism than OTL).

By 1900 Africa has been divided between the four blocks. Brits have Egypt, Sudan, the Horn other than Djbouti, Zanzibar + Pemba, Tanganyka, Kenya, and a smaller South Africa - Cape and Natal. CSA - Brazil have advanced from Angola across the Rhodesias and Malawi to Mozambique. the Boer Republics have joined the de facto slavers block. The Americans have the greater Congo Basin - Bel Congo, French Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, Ubangi - Shari, Uganda. The catholic Block has Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Mauretania, Chad, Mali, Upper Volta and northern Nigeria. The Brits have the rest of West Africa.

The Balkans have been partitioned between Hungary and Russia. A small Greece ending in Boetia is a Brit protectorate and a smaller European Turkey clings to Thrace under British protection. The Moslems have been expelled to Turkey. Turkey in Asia is a Brit protectorate with Brit, German and US capital developing it. Turkey, Britain and Russia have partitioned Iran andAfghanistan. Tibet and Siam are British protectorates. Sinkiang, Inner and Outer Mongolia, Manchuria and Korean north of the waist are Russian provinces. China north of the Great Wall is a group of Russian protectorates. The remaining 2/3rds of Korea, Sakhalin, Hokkaido, the Kuriles, the Pescadores, the Rykyus,and Taiwan are Japanese provinces. Annam, Tonkin, Laos, Yunnan, Shantung and Fukien are Japanese protectorates. Kwangtung is a British Protectorate. Japan is allied to the UK but a very independent player. The Yangtse Valley is jointly exploited from the treaty ports, especially Shanghai and Nanking. The remainder of China is in a permanent state of lawlessness.

As a whole the world is richer, better developed, better educated and has more people than OTL. The blocks hold without the giant military races of our preWWI. All are at this point basically defensive and accept the unlikeliness of major changes in the territorial status quo. So we have dreadnaughts but no naval races. Capital and labor are more mobile within the blocks but less mobile outside of them. Take it more like the military situation of permanent Cold War of the post 1962 world here. The color bar is still there but much less extreme outside of North America as the test is becoming assimilation in what is now the 3rd world. Major effort directed at simultaneously assimilating and oppressing ( inhibiting natiuonalism, national languages, national feelings) the various protectorates and colonies. World capital has as its HQ's London, New York, Berlin and Tokyo in that order. For culture it is London, Paris, Berlin, New York. Many international organizations for secondary purposes - postal, health, etc.
 
I find it hard to imagine that the world would be so sunny and bright if only we had let the south seceed. For one thing, that was one thing Britain dearly wanted to see happen, because it would leave them as the unrivaled superpower in the world. I also don't think the west would be settled faster than OTL.. in fact, it would be slower, as the west was settled by a lot of veterans from the war from both sides. I also don't see how your scenario would lead to the Indians being treated better... you'd still have the same greed for their lands, and there's no guarantee that the Indian agents would be any better people than in OTL. I don't see the south as becoming a big booming industrial power or getting more immigration... unless they do away with slavery REALLY fast... which sort of defeats the whole purpose of secession.
Now, I suppose your scenario could happen; it's not impossible. I just find it improbable....
 
Santa Anna was in and out of office in Mexico City like a weathercock for 30 years until he agreed to the Gadsden Purchase (southern Arizona) which act finished him politically. After that selling off parts of the national territory was VERY bad for the continued political survival of any Mexican government.

IMO you think rather too lightly about swallowing chunks of Latin American territory. People south of the Rio Grande are just as little fond of being ruled by foreigners (e.g. b-y Yankees) as, say. Vietnamese or Iraqi's.
 
As for the Six Weeks War: Bismarck had been at the time for several years at loggerheads with the Prussian parliament, which wouldn't sanction his budgets, so he was forced to finance his war against Austria with a number of extraparliamentary shenanigans, which are highly unlikely to have enabled him to keep fighting for the better part of two years without a victory. (Once Bismarck had won the Prussian parliament retroactively sanctioned all he had done)

I agree with Dave: I suppose your scenario could happen; it's not impossible. I just find it improbable....
 
1861
Confederacy secedes, POD is the Confederate Constitutional Convention not a put up job, but for real. Say, someone writes a very influential book on the order of 'Common Sense'.
1. No conscription.
2. No pass laws for white people.
3. Right of states to secede back to the Union recognised.
All three of the above give the Confederate government more popular support and give it Kentucky, Maryland, and Missouri as states. Delaware and the rest of the Delmarva peninsula stay Union, as does West Virginia. Their states let them go per the Confederate Constitutional Convention policy. There is no reason for the states to argue about it. The land that could be sold off by the new state governments is not valuable, the debt/pensions owed by the parent state is trivial, so if they want to secede there is no economic reason not to let them go. Sort of like how the Union feels about the Confederacy leaving. Why fight?
4. No default on debts.
That's the one that cuts the legs out from underneath the Union in poltical terms. The Abolitionist/Banker alliance does not take place.

With Kentucky in the Confederacy the war becomes pretty much impossible. As a matter of fact, with West Maryland in the Confederacy the Union capital is now going to move to Pittsburg. It's centrally located and firmly inside the Union. Remember that West Virginia is part of the Union.
The other governments recognise the Confederacy and the Union governments equally. The Confederacy has the old capital and the Union is the bigger and more important piece in terms of trade. Food vs. Cotton.

Postwar intrigue.
What for? No one's interested in screwing around. The Union and the Confederacy are both democracies (for white males, anyway). If the plantation owners want to start a war, or send pirates out, they can bloody well do it by themselves. The people of the Confederacy don't give a damn.
Either the Confederacy or the Union may default on foreign debts. Neither is going to fight a war about it, especially not with each other.

Western states
The Californians were a little impatient with the federal government. With the Secession as an example there is little reason to let the federal government instead of the state governments collect the money for selling off public lands. The whole of the US west of the divide is now a third country. British Columbia makes noises about joining them. Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't. Utah is happy to be part of the western states. California is now four states. Maybe California buys Baja, or Alaska, or conquers Hawaii. I say California because they are the linchpin states, the ones with the money. Well, and Nevada. Actually only the Sierra states have the money.

Continental railroad.
Takes longer to build since no one is subsidizing it. The west has a much more varied population. More immigrants and less nativeborn Americans. More like New York City and less like Iowa.

And so it goes. No Phillipine adventure. No Caribbean adventure. No WWI, probably. Just a steady increase in population and industry. There is some aggravation about escaped slaves and smuggled goods moving north, but it evens out. The value of Union tariffs lost to Confederate smugglers is about the same as the value of Confederate slaves lost to the Underground railroad.

Kentucky regularly holds elections fought on the subject of joining the Union. They never win. Ditto for Western Maryland and Missouri. The Union builds a bigger navy without the Confederate states bitching about it. The Confederacy might get involved in a war with Mexico and gets it's teeth beat in or not. Remember, the Union will be selling guns to the Mexicans, and commerce raiders as well.

Around 1900 the boll weevil gets loose and slavery becomes unprofitable. Rayon helps kill off King Cotton.
 
In addition to the Unionists in Missouri, Maryland, West Virginia and Kentucky, what about the pro-Union ppl in the hinterlands (Appalachians) of other CSA states like NC, Tennessee, Georgia and Alabama ? OTL the CSA had a bit of a handful combatting draft evasion and guerilla resistance in these areas- wouldn't these guys still give the Rebs a hard this TTL ?
 
This seems unrealistically optimistic. If the federal government allowed the southern states to secede, the precedent would be set that secession is constitutional, legal, and appropriate when regions and states differ with the federal government. The USA would probably further disintegrate in the following decades of the 19th century. In addition, with the accepted and non-contested secession of the Southern States, there would be little pressure for the establishing a strong central "Confederate States" government uniting them. There would probably be no CS Constitution, inspired or otherwise. The result would be a balkanized north America in ways we cannot predict, no powerful nation in north america, not nearly as much european immigration into the former USA, and an erosion - not increase - in individual liberty in a lot of successor states.

The only possible good outcome to a non-contested secession would be the possibility that - if the rest of the USA continued to grow and prosper - individual southern states might opt to rejoin the Union as key issues like chattel slavery went away (a big if, in my book). Without a violent war of secession, such accomodation might be quite easy.
 
Melvin Loh said:
In addition to the Unionists in Missouri, Maryland, West Virginia and Kentucky, what about the pro-Union ppl in the hinterlands (Appalachians) of other CSA states like NC, Tennessee, Georgia and Alabama ? OTL the CSA had a bit of a handful combatting draft evasion and guerilla resistance in these areas- wouldn't these guys still give the Rebs a hard this TTL ?
They weren't bitching about the secession, they were bitching about the conscription, the pass laws for white people, and the underrepresentation in Southern governments. They used to screw them on voting rights, too. No slaves or other property, no voting rights. No public schools, etc.
Without a war or a draft or a pass law system, what's to fight about? Always a frontier in Texas!
Some states would gradually move to the North. As the slaves in Kentucky made it across the water, they would gradually lose slaveowners as a voting block. So eventually the state would vote to federate with the Union. Probably in East Maryland, then Virginia, etc. It was too easy to escape back then.
 
Lincoln was ready to use the force. Thus, sending the ship to Fort Sumter was some kind of ultimatum that Davis couldn't win. If you attack it, I win, if you let it pass, you lose. Lincoln didn't gave Davis a chance: war or war.
 
the big question here is, just what would the world be like with a fractured and balkanized US instead of the monolithic US of OTL? While this was something the Brits really were hoping to see during the ACW, would it have been a positive or negative for the world? Or would it have merely have continued the European dominance of the world through the 20th century?
Would the southern secession be the last one? New England was often at odds with the rest of the nation... would they seceed as well? California? What of the undeveloped west? Would settlement of it be delayed, as in OTL, many settlers were veterans from both sides of the war?
 
Since I posit a balkanized former USA, I'll suggest some further results as reasonable possibilities - some of which are outright conrtadictory:

(1) Monroe Doctrine defunct. Renewed European colonialism in the New World, coupled by outright alliances between some successor states and various European powers.

(2) Stronger Mexico - satellite of France at least until Franco-Prussian War (or longer if butterflys let France win). Reabsorption of some of former US Southwest - but probably not California into Mexico.

(3) Situation better for Native Americans in Plains and west. Less European immigration, less pressure for settlement and more time and opportunity for some tribes to retain more independence by balancing off sucessor states, Britain, and Mexico.

(4) Situation worse for Native Americans in Plains and west. Absent a central government with a single Indian Policy which was occasionally supportive of Indian interests against states and settlers, the west is settled willy nilly by local whites who have no compunction against genocide and outright murder.

(5) A Turtledone special: Mormon nation of Deseret in Utah and parts of Nevada and Idaho.

(6) Less push for Canadian self-rule. British North America remains British - and perhaps goes from being a colony to full Parliamentary representation instead of on a track for political independence.

(7) Possible survival of chattel slavery in some states thru the late 19th and into the 20th century.
 
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