Kazan Russia

Advernt

Recently , I've been looking up on a Paradox Interactive Game called Europa Universallies III . While looking at the forums , I noticed that Kazan occassionally overruns most of Russia within 50 years . ( Or Lituhania but that's another topic altogether. )

What are the chances of a Kazan is the dominant power in Russia with a POD starting from 1450 ? How plausible is it for there to be a Russiastan ( or a Russia with its capital at Kazan )?
 

carlton_bach

I don't think it's very likely. The military might of Kazan is based on cavalry trained in the Mongol warrior tradition while that of the Russian princedoms to the north is rooted in urban infantry and landowner horsemen. At the technology of the 1400s, the two are still broadly at military parity, but in the long run the population growth and military innovation potential of a settled, unitary, urban power will tell. You can see the same effect in the Ottoman Empire with the Janissary infantry and in Central Asia with Chinese power encroaching on the nomads. OTL Kazan was militarily scary, but it didn't hold territory much. AS late as the 16th century they took Moscow, and left again. When the Muscovites took Kazan, that was the end of it.
 

Advernt

carlton_bach said:
I don't think it's very likely. The military might of Kazan is based on cavalry trained in the Mongol warrior tradition while that of the Russian princedoms to the north is rooted in urban infantry and landowner horsemen. At the technology of the 1400s, the two are still broadly at military parity, but in the long run the population growth and military innovation potential of a settled, unitary, urban power will tell. You can see the same effect in the Ottoman Empire with the Janissary infantry and in Central Asia with Chinese power encroaching on the nomads. OTL Kazan was militarily scary, but it didn't hold territory much. AS late as the 16th century they took Moscow, and left again. When the Muscovites took Kazan, that was the end of it.
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So , the typical script for the Russians in EU III approaches ASB ? We WOULD not see Kazan occupying most of Russia ? Thanks .
 

Advernt

Could I change the premise a little please?

Could Lituhania have united Russia , instead of Muscovy , and what would have been the ramifications of such a situation ? This sometimes happens in Europa Universallies too . I've seen a Lituhania that creepily resembles Russia .
 

Slacker

Much more likely, imo, especially if the personal union with Poland still exists. In the early 15th, Lithuania really outweighed all of the various Russian mini-states by quite a bit.
 
Thande

Thande

Donor
Games usually don't take into account the difference between an urbanised and a nomadic people (or one that does have cities but is still primarily nomadic in character).
 

Abdul Hadi Pasha

Banned
carlton_bach said:
Occupying maybe. Holding? Unlikely. Now, the Lithuanians, Poles or Swedes are another matter.
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It's not impossible, if you change certain things about Kazan - some Mongol polities managed to evolve real ruling institutions and had some staying power - especially some of their Turkic proteges... perhaps if Kazan had conquered a more developed Islamic state first, they could have become a real going concern and built a more durable empire.
 

Max Sinister

Banned
@Abdul: Which Islamic state would be around?

And why should a non-Orthodox, non-Slavic people try to collect the Russian earth?
 

htgriffin

carlton_bach said:
I don't think it's very likely. The military might of Kazan is based on cavalry trained in the Mongol warrior tradition while that of the Russian princedoms to the north is rooted in urban infantry and landowner horsemen. At the technology of the 1400s, the two are still broadly at military parity, but in the long run the population growth and military innovation potential of a settled, unitary, urban power will tell. You can see the same effect in the Ottoman Empire with the Janissary infantry and in Central Asia with Chinese power encroaching on the nomads. OTL Kazan was militarily scary, but it didn't hold territory much. AS late as the 16th century they took Moscow, and left again. When the Muscovites took Kazan, that was the end of it.
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So the PoD is for Khazan to develop stronger governmental institutions and an infantry force as fast or faster than Muscovy. The odds of that are...?

HTG (who thinks keeping the Golden Horde alive would give better odds)
 

Stalker

Banned
Advernt said:
Could I change the premise a little please?

Could Lituhania have united Russia , instead of Muscovy , and what would have been the ramifications of such a situation ? This sometimes happens in Europa Universallies too . I've seen a Lithuania that creepily resembles Russia .
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Yes quite possible. Gedymin of Lithuania not putting his efforts to the war with the Teutons but focusing on holding Novgorod and supporting the Alexander (Mikhailovich) of Tver against Ivan The Purse (Kalita) of Moscow and the Tartars, and even going for a dynastic marriage of one of his sons with the princes of Tver. Great Tver may stop the rise of Moscow as the strongest power in the Eastern Russ ans then Gedymin's successors may step by step take the power over Eastern Russ. And there's the world where there no union between Poland and Lithuania, no Rzecz Pospolita.
 

Advernt

How would a Lithuanian Russia or a Kazan Russia interact with the rest of Europe , and how would this change the course of history ? Would the rise of Sweden be butterflied ? Would the Turks , with only the Austrians to deal with , held on to most of Hungary and the Crimea ? Would a Kazan Russia suffer from crusades from Poland , Prussia , Lithuania and Austria ?

Would a Lituhanian Russia drive Orthodoxy to the edge of extinction ( the Lituhanians were catholics IIRC) ? How would the reformation be affected ?

The age of Exploration will probably still occur , as per OTL , but would the European power which eventually controls India ( Assuming that they were still able too ) expand further ?

How will a Catholic or Islamic Russia affect Central European History , Siberia and central Asia ?
 

Philip

Donor
Advernt said:
Would a Lituhanian Russia drive Orthodoxy to the edge of extinction ( the Lituhanians were catholics IIRC) ?
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The Lithuanians were Orthodox. Only under Polish political domination did this shift. It the Lithuanians control Russia, they will likely to be split from the Poles and possibly reverse the situation.
 

abas

Philip said:
The Lithuanians were Orthodox. Only under Polish political domination did this shift. It the Lithuanians control Russia, they will likely to be split from the Poles and possibly reverse the situation.
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Lithuanians weren't Christians until 1386 and never were Orthodox.
 

Abdul Hadi Pasha

Banned
Max Sinister said:
@Abdul: Which Islamic state would be around?

And why should a non-Orthodox, non-Slavic people try to collect the Russian earth?
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I don't understand your second sentence.

As for Islamic states, Iran, Central Asia... also, the Ottomans were going strong in this period - an alliance between them could have gone a long way...
 

abas

Advernt said:
Recently , I've been looking up on a Paradox Interactive Game called Europa Universallies III . While looking at the forums , I noticed that Kazan occassionally overruns most of Russia within 50 years . ( Or Lituhania but that's another topic altogether. )

What are the chances of a Kazan is the dominant power in Russia with a POD starting from 1450 ? How plausible is it for there to be a Russiastan ( or a Russia with its capital at Kazan )?
Click to expand...
Kazan took part in civil war in Moscow, supporting Dmitriy Shemyaka, while Vasiliy the Blind got support from Lithuania in 1445.

Slacker said:
Much more likely, imo, especially if the personal union with Poland still exists. In the early 15th, Lithuania really outweighed all of the various Russian mini-states by quite a bit.
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Lithuania suffered from civil wars and dinastic struggles at that time.

Stalker said:
Yes quite possible. Gedymin of Lithuania not putting his efforts to the war with the Teutons but focusing on holding Novgorod and supporting the Alexander (Mikhailovich) of Tver against Ivan The Purse (Kalita) of Moscow and the Tartars, and even going for a dynastic marriage of one of his sons with the princes of Tver. Great Tver may stop the rise of Moscow as the strongest power in the Eastern Russ ans then Gedymin's successors may step by step take the power over Eastern Russ. And there's the world where there no union between Poland and Lithuania, no Rzecz Pospolita.
Click to expand...
Gediminas couldn't stop to fight with the Teutons since Lithuanian lands was his power base. Losing them he also would lose ability to dominate his Russian holdings (I am in doubt that the Teutons would leave him in peace in this case). BTW Algirdas married Uliana, princess of Tver in 1350.
 

Philip

Donor
abas said:
Lithuanians weren't Christians until 1386 and never were Orthodox.
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Two things:

First, don't confuse the tribe of the Lithuanians with the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. It is the Grand Duchy, not the tribe, that has a chance to control the Russia. Of course, the majority of the population of the Grand Duchy was Rus. And guess what...the Rus were overwhelmingly Orthodox.

Second, watch out for the propaganda of the Teutonic Knights. It can be misleading.
 

abas

Philip said:
Two things:

First, don't confuse the tribe of the Lithuanians with the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. It is the Grand Duchy, not the tribe, that has a chance to control the Russia. Of course, the majority of the population of the Grand Duchy was Rus. And guess what...the Rus were overwhelmingly Orthodox.

Second, watch out for the propaganda of the Teutonic Knights. It can be misleading.
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I know the difference between Grand Duchy of Lithuania and proper Lithuania. The Rus remained Orthodox after 1386 and while they were in majority of the population they weren't dominant part of that population.
 
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