WI the Arabs win the 1948 Arab-Israeli War

There will not be a second holocaust.
The Arabs neither desired this, nor were capable of it.

I think that eventually, the opression of the occupying armies in Palestine will overshadow the Jewish-Palestinian differences, and the Egyptians, Syrians, and Jordanians will be pushed back.
Perhaps then a binational state will be created.
 

NapoleonXIV

Banned
The other countries in the West, most notably the US, Britain and even Russia are going to step in before things go too far. There will be atrocities on both sides but no mass deaths.
However, now we do have vast refugee camps, filled with Jews instead of Palestinians
 
The left is more pro-zionist in this timeline.

Instead of bitching about Israeli Oppression and Facism they now bitch about Arab Oppression and Facism.

Zionism is a more left-wing movement.
 

Riain

Banned
IFAIK there weren't that many Jews in Palestine in 1948-9, so while there may be serious atrocities millions more Jews won't die. However the Middle East will still be a dysfunctional shithole, they will just focus on hating each other rather than Israel and each other.
 
IFAIK there weren't that many Jews in Palestine in 1948-9, so while there may be serious atrocities millions more Jews won't die. However the Middle East will still be a dysfunctional shithole, they will just focus on hating each other rather than Israel and each other.

I think at least one million Jews came from Europe to Israel prior to 1948-9.
 
If the jewish population would have been defeated then..

(1) first of allthere would be initial massive killings on both sides. There would be an active jewish resistance as the invading forces (Iraq, Egypt, Syria and Lebanon) would not have the force or the capability to enforce peace and stability. Also they have different agendas and not the economy to maintain an occupation in Palestine. The Arab population does not have good leaders

(2) More refugee problems: first of all the Jews from Palestine can't go anywhere. There aren't welcome in Europe (destroyed due to WW2, recovering from ethnic cleansing - mainly in Central europe and having a serious refugee problem themself anyway).
Secondly The Jews of Europe, waiting in DP camps all over Europe and British Empire can't go anywhere either. Will they be assimilated and will that mean a stronger Jewish culture in europe? USA had stringent imigrantion controls so if not Europe, maybe to South America, Rhodesia or Asia.
Thirdly the Jews of the Arab world. There were more or less forced to leave due to progroms and racism and prosecution. Were would they go? Stick it out?

So a defeat of the Jewish forces would mean chaos in Palestine with killings, and instability, more refugee problems and maybe subsequent Jewish persecution in other parts of the world (due to immigration).
 
Maybe the victors don't reach an agreement about the future of Palestine (as they have not plans for the situation after the victory) and after some time go to war with each other. Jordan+Syria vs. Egypt-Sudan
 
They'd kick out all the Jews who wouldn't want to live in a Muslim Palestine, and the West would have the choice between letting them immigrate, or watching a second holocaust (by negligence) happen.
 

Cherico

Banned
They'd kick out all the Jews who wouldn't want to live in a Muslim Palestine, and the West would have the choice between letting them immigrate, or watching a second holocaust (by negligence) happen.


which means a second holocaust would happen, jewish people in
Isrieal had no where to go it was their last shot thats why they
fought so hard
 
I'm not sure why Arabs overruning the place would suddenly make many present opponents of Israel suddenly become fond of it:confused:
 
Jewish migration to the area will stop for a while. Thousands of palestinean villages will never be overrun by the zionists. Palestineans already driven out by Zionists would be allowed to return to their homes and the people that have taken over their homes will be forced to move somewhere else.

I assume that many jews will return to their country of orgin, others will simply settle peacefully in areas purchased by zionists prior to the founding of Israel. Jews living in a palestine not under their control will just have to do what jews have always had to do in the area, live peacefully with their neighbours. I guess the local jews that already lived there since ages back would give them a few pointers.

Assuming that an british/american expidtionary force have not thrown the arabs out I assume that the area may either be a palestinean country or split up among their neighbours, probably both in parts. The population would be dominated by palestinans with a strong jewish minority. Some jewish migration to the area would probably be allowed as long as they don't try to take over. Zionism as a principle would be outlawed. Jews would not be hated in the region and the arab countries would still hold on to their own jewish minorities.

Arab leaders would have no Israel to blame for their shortcommings, thus, hopefully they get replaced by better leaders allowing for a more stable and peaceful middle east.
 
There is always a possibility of the war ending in favor of the Arabs, and the idea of a Jewish state deserted.

But that doesn't mean that the Yishuv would pack-up and leave.

They'll found an Arab-Israeli state in Palestine, with the #1 constitutional value of the Palestinian majority respecting Jewish rights.
 
Much as I would love to see that kind of outcome, I don't think it's still a viable path in 1948. Too much violence, hatred and anger has built up by then. The best outcome is that, following some random atrocities and 'blind eyes', the Jewish settlers will be permitted to stay, subject to certain legal restrictions. They'll form a tzolerated, but disliked minority in the new Palestinian Arab state and further immigration will certainly not be welcome.
 
Remember one thing though:

Back then there was no such thing as Israelis and Palestinians. There were Jews and Arabs.

I think what would happen is that Transjordan will try to (and get) control over Jerusalem. After all, the Hashemites traditionally were the guardians of the holy places, and unless you believe in Daniel Pipes's views of Jerusalem (in that the Islamic significance of Jersulam was a farce and only made up by one of the Arabic capliphates as pretty much a glorification thing), you as a Muslim would believe that Jerusalem was a holy place because Mohammed ascended to heaven there. Then however, Jerusalem would be badly neglected (unless Abdullah was convinced to move his capital from Amman to Jerusalem, in which case Amman will be neglected in favour of Jerusalem). So, something like the OTL West Bank will be held by Transjordan, plus all of West Jerusalem and some surrounding land.

Syria will practically control OTL northern Israel, and Saudi Arabia would practically control OTL southern Israel. Egypt would have the OTL Gaza Strip as before, maybe even OTL central Israel. Thus, "Palestine" ceases to exist.

Syria will find a way of annexing Lebanon, and then there could be a possibility of a United Arab Republic consisting of Egypt, Syria, Transjordan, Iraq, Lebanon (if Syria holds onto it), and maybe even Yemen (the Yemen Arab Republic anyone?) or Libya (if Qaddafi decides to do so). Because Palestine is for all intents and purposes defunct, it would be easier for this to happen. Whats more, the Hashemite monarchies would be thrown out in both Transjordan and Iraq. The UAR would be an Arab version of the USSR, but with Arab Socialism as the dominant ideology.
 
The Jewish residents of Palestine would be forced to go somewhere else. That somewhere else would likely be the United States. This would make the Americans despise the Arabs for generations to come. If they were to fall under the USSR's sphere of influence that hatred only gets more pronounced.

The result would likely ultimately be a similar situation that the US has with Cuba right now - a small, but extremely virulent minority making sure the US wants absolutely nothing to do with the Arabs. Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia would probably be armed in order to keep the UAR from gaining much influence. The UAR socialism would likely play down the important of Islam in daily life, something that would likely also be the case in ultra-conservative Saudi Arabia and very liberal Turkey. Iran sits in the middle of that.

By the 1970s, The US would putting pressure on the Saudis for reforms, especially if Turkey stays secular and democratic and Iran's White Revolution is successful in turning Iran into an economic powerhouse. The UAR would have immense oil reserves, but the US wouldn't be buying - they'd be buying from Saudi and Iran. Turkey and Iran would rise towards first-world status, and when reforms come Saudi Arabia quickly does the same. The UAR sells oil to Europe, the USSR and China, and uses that money to build an elaborate social network. The 1980s see the Saudis liberalize their social and economic systems, and unheard-of prosperity floods the Islamic world.

But that system has reached limits by the mid-1980s, and as the USSR opens its doors and changes, the UAR economy starts to struggle. Infighting begins to damage the economy and the country's stability. By 1990, the battle has become an open civil war, and the radical zionists begin to gather their forces to go to the UAR, and begin doing so in 1991. The Jews find plenty of government resistance but very little from the local residents. By 1994, there is 2.3 million Jews compared to 3.7 million Arabs in the land called Palestine. In 1995, the Jews declare the state of Israel, but this time the troubled, strife-ridden UAR is unable to do much to stop the creation of Israel. Israel formally becomes real on July 31, 1995, as a secular state, with a slight Palestinian majority that rapidly fades as Jews come to Israel. The local Arabs don't have a problem with the Jews, as they have brought new prosperity with them. By 2000, the Jewish population is the largest population at 4.4 million, compared to 4.2 million Arabs and 1.2 million Christians and handfuls of Druse, Ba'hai and others. Israel owns all of OTL Israel and Lebanon, as well as the western half of the Sinai, the Jordanian port city of Aqabah and the Golan heights. Jerusalem straddles the border between Israel and the UAR.

The UAR finally splits in 2001, leaving the broke, dirt-poor Jordan behind. Iraq, Syria and Egypt are unwilling or able to help them out. The provisional government reccommends a "merger" with Israel, which the Israelis enthusiastically go for it - it will give them access to Jerusalem.

Jordan exists only a year before Israel takes over on September 1, 2002. A month later, Israeli's moderate politics are tested by rabbi Meir Kahane, when a bunch of his supporters in the Israeli National Police cause a mess at Temple Mount when they refuse to leave, claiming the land belonged to the Jews as a sign form God. The Arabs are furious and the Christians aren't pleased either, and many secular Jews aren't impressed either. The INP is unwilling to remove Kahane's supporters bu force, but the IDF is perfectly willing to do so. The Orthodox and Hasidic Jews are furious from this, but the majority of Jews in Israel are unwilling to support the extremist views of Kahane and his supporters.

Turkey joins the European Union in 2004, and this gives Israel the idea of also doing so, since a great many of its Jewish residents are of European descent. The EU agrees, and in 2007 agrees to hear Israel's case for EU membership. The idea flies, and Israel joins the EU in 2015.

By 2007, Israel has the Arabs as the largest population group at 7.6 million people, with 6.8 million Jews and 2.1 million Christians. It's a first world nation, and a major agricultural exporter. Jerusalem is its capital, and a massive number of Arabs visit Jerusalem's Muslim holy sites regularly. It has its own economic association, the Middle Eastern Development Agreement, with Turkey, Cyprus, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States and Iran. A high-speed rail system hooks Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, Amman, Beirut, Aqabah, Beersheba and Dimona to Riyadh, Jeddah, Mecca, Medina and the Gulf capitals. Israeli Arabs are the best-educated in the Muslim world, though their Saudi, Turkish, Iranian and Cypriot counterparts aren't far off.
 
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