So... what if, the Soviets saw their close economic ally in a war with a cold war enemy as a reason to back them and began moving in weapons and support?
Mr. Arken,
It's tough call, you see the junta kicked the whole thing off as an attempt to distract the populace from demonstrating outside the palace every day. The junta didn't do any of the planning they should have and the nastiness was over fairly quickly. There might have been enough time for the Soviets to send over various goodies. There's another recent Falklands thread on the board. Check it out.
Assuming the junta goes to war as quickly and as hapahazardly they did in the OTL; how quickly can the Soviets get materials to the Argies, what would the Argies want, and how quickly could they learn to use the stuff? If we discount the shipment of actual hardware, the Soviets could have tweaked a ROR-sat orbit or two and given the Argies satellite data.
A major problem would be integrating all the Soviet stuff with the Western stuff the Argies already used. You're not going be able to slap a Soviet ASM onto a Super Entendard or Mirage III-3. The stuff wasn't made to go together. The same holds true for a lot of the hardware in the Soviet inventory; it may be good stuff but it doens't mesh well with the stuff the Argies already have. Now throw in the training curve, how fast could the Argies learn to use it even if they could get it to work with their hardware?
Now let's assume that the junta decides to plan Operation Rosario like they should have. For whatever reason they have the time and they decide to use it. In this context, they could begin swapping wheat for weapons with the USSR, filling holes in their inventory or just upgrading things. Weapons come with advisors and trainers, it can't be helped. In this case, the new relationship between Argie and Moscow can't be hidden. Questions will be asked, notes sent, etc. The West generally supports the junta because they aren't commies (Our Bastards and all that) and now the junta is cozying up to the USSR. If anything, by going after Soviet hardware for their upcoming invasion I'd think the junta would have tipped their hand.
Between these two cases would be the Argies asking the Soviets on the sly ofr help in 'acquiring' additional amounts of the weapons they already have. FX: They don't get more exocets from France; who would then report it, instead they get more exocets from third parties. The Argies would be paying quite a bit more for each missile however.
Summing it all up:
- If they get subs, planes, or ships from the USSR, they're announcing they've shifted camps and find themsleves under more scrutiny which makes the invasion harder. My take? No Go.
- If they get weapons for subs, planes, and ships from the USSR, they've still got to train on 'em and integrate them with the platforms they already own. That'll take techs and advisors which will put htem under more scrutiny, etc., etc. My take? No Go.
- If they get help in smuggling additional weapons, they might be able to keep thigns under wraps long enough. My take? Plausible.
- If they arrange for intel and sigint from the Soviets prior to the invasion, they can most likely keep in under wraps. My take? Plausible.
Any significant help from the USSR would require a POD that places Argentina in the Non-Aligned or Communist camps. And, if that is the case, she's being watched very closely by the US and UK alike.
Would the U.S. under anti-communist hardliner Reagan see this as a communist threat to America's closest military ally and mount his own military campaign south of the Equator? Could this even erupt into a nuclear conflict?
If Argentina went communist like San Salvador did? Sure, you'd see the US under Reagan in the South Atlantic like white on rice.
As for a military campaign? Local catspaws with advisors are my best guess, set up Chile, Brasil, Uruguay, and groups inside those countries to take Argentina down.
As for nuclear escalation? Well, the Soviets thought NATO's Able Archer exercises were a lead-up to a NATO first strike. They went to an extremely high alert level and held there for months until well after Able Archer was over. And we never knew it until the USSR fell and the archives opened!
Hope this helped.
Bill
P.S. How does one go about designing sound?
