Could Spain be balkanized in the 20th century? And if so, is it likely to split completely into its nationalist regions, or only Spain and a one or two most secessionist areas?
Spain breaking apart
- Thread starter Strategos' Risk
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I once did a map for a 'Sovietized' Spain that's around here somewhere...
Catalonia enjoys now a hig level of authonomy: we have own competences in police, teaching, health and so on. There is even a political party that openly asks for independence, and they are partners in the autonomic governement with the socialists. If there was a remote chance that anyone would start a fight over independence it was just after Franco's death, in the 70's and early 80's, but now it's as unthinkable as a war for Scotland's independence.
I'd say it would have been possible, but only in the first two thirds, certainly not after EU membership.
Of course the Civil War would make your best starting point. You already had strong regional identities in Catalonia and the Basque territories, so if the war goes badly for the Fracists, these might choose to make independence stick and franco, while retaining the technical claim, accept it so as to say he is now master of 'Spain'.
If you go even farther, how about partitioning Spain after a Civil War that goes to the Communists and a subsequent intervention by the Western powers? Catalonia, Euskaria and northern Spain (established as 'Asturias and Leon') become French satellites while the People's Councils' Republic of Spain encompasses southern Castile and Andalusia, and the British-funded Kingdom of Spain in Exile sits in the Moroccan enclaves and the Balearics. If you can keep this alive through WWII (Keep Hitler from invading Soviet Spain in '41), the Cold war will cement it for decades to come.
A collapse of Francist spain could also easily prise off Catalonia and the Basques, but beyond that I don't think there's much potential. Is there even such a thing as Asturian or Leonese nationalism?
Of course the Civil War would make your best starting point. You already had strong regional identities in Catalonia and the Basque territories, so if the war goes badly for the Fracists, these might choose to make independence stick and franco, while retaining the technical claim, accept it so as to say he is now master of 'Spain'.
If you go even farther, how about partitioning Spain after a Civil War that goes to the Communists and a subsequent intervention by the Western powers? Catalonia, Euskaria and northern Spain (established as 'Asturias and Leon') become French satellites while the People's Councils' Republic of Spain encompasses southern Castile and Andalusia, and the British-funded Kingdom of Spain in Exile sits in the Moroccan enclaves and the Balearics. If you can keep this alive through WWII (Keep Hitler from invading Soviet Spain in '41), the Cold war will cement it for decades to come.
A collapse of Francist spain could also easily prise off Catalonia and the Basques, but beyond that I don't think there's much potential. Is there even such a thing as Asturian or Leonese nationalism?
Should have read better, though it was about the present time.
Civil war has the most POD potential, but it should happen at the begining. The republican army had a strong communist influence and the republican leaders were all in favour of a united Spain. In the first days, catalan president Lluis Companys declared a Catalan republic, but all catalan and basque independentist forces soon saw that the only hope of victory came through a strong central republican governement.
Maybe if Franco takes Madrid and the rest of Castilla in 1936, republican gov. disintegrates and then the Catalan Republic is recognized by France, and the french send some real military help there. But why should them? In 1936 the western powers seemed to be very comfortable with a Fascist Spain.
The only real independists movements in Spain were in Basque Country and Catalonia, places with own history, language and, most important, economic development.
Civil war has the most POD potential, but it should happen at the begining. The republican army had a strong communist influence and the republican leaders were all in favour of a united Spain. In the first days, catalan president Lluis Companys declared a Catalan republic, but all catalan and basque independentist forces soon saw that the only hope of victory came through a strong central republican governement.
Maybe if Franco takes Madrid and the rest of Castilla in 1936, republican gov. disintegrates and then the Catalan Republic is recognized by France, and the french send some real military help there. But why should them? In 1936 the western powers seemed to be very comfortable with a Fascist Spain.
The only real independists movements in Spain were in Basque Country and Catalonia, places with own history, language and, most important, economic development.
Hm. What I was thinking was a Basque-Catalan Catalonia; basically with its anarchist tradition, Catalonia breaks off of Spain during the Civil War along with the Basques, which is given more autonomy by Barcelona than Madrid ever did. So ironically, the two nationalist movements unite to strengthen their identity.
After the Civil war, spain can be divided in two states: a communist state, and the USSR are your partner, and a state controlled for the Axis. During the IIWW, the second state enter into the war, rendering naval bases to the kriegsmarine; this is the cause of the fall of England in 1944. The first state enter into the war when Germany Attacked USSR, creating a second front in europa.
Result: a destroyed Spain
Result: a destroyed Spain
How does spreading out the Kriegsmarine equal a succesful Sealion?
Eggh, me smells a n00b beating coming up-and Im not the n00b getting beaten this time!
Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy
Banned
Would an independent Catalonia include Valencia and the Balearic Islands, which have Catalan majorities? How about La Franja?
The Balearic islands maybe, but the Valencians would never agree to be considered catalans. They even argue today that their languaje is not catalan, but Valencian. They have also tried (not very succesfully) to avoid the catalan TV (TV3) to be seen in valencian TVs. Don't ask me why.
The problem with the anarchist way is that the core of the independist movement in Catalonia came from the upper classes, the owners of land and industries, the ones making money and paying taxes to Madrid. Low class workers were not that for an independent Catalonia, but for a wide non-state revolution. Anarchists, communists and independentists were on the same side but had very different goals and fought among themselves during the war. I only see a decisive french military action durign SPC as a way to obtain a independent Catalonia, and then a short lived one when the panzers come in 1940.
The problem with the anarchist way is that the core of the independist movement in Catalonia came from the upper classes, the owners of land and industries, the ones making money and paying taxes to Madrid. Low class workers were not that for an independent Catalonia, but for a wide non-state revolution. Anarchists, communists and independentists were on the same side but had very different goals and fought among themselves during the war. I only see a decisive french military action durign SPC as a way to obtain a independent Catalonia, and then a short lived one when the panzers come in 1940.
Turn the story on its head! If the Communists win Castile, the French and British could be scared into action PDQ. And the upper-class nationalists with economic grievances sound like a good constituencies for founding an anti-Communist nationalist satellite state.
Goldstein
Banned
It's a very interesting scenario. Could I make a map of it, please?
Also, I was thinkng... Could a stalemate between republican and nationalist spain be possible? That would make a northern nationalist and a southern republican spain.
What about the stabilization plan of 1959 not taking place? Without it, the economic growth of the 60's never happens, there's more isolation and poverty, more dissatisfaction about Franco's regime and more violent ressistance groups... all leading in the 80's to a "yugoslaviation"
Sure, I suck at graphics, anyone who wants to put my ideas on maps is welcome to.
Goldstein
Banned
Thanks. The cold war would look like this:
Yes, it's very simple. Later, I'll do a more detailed map of the partition, Mayve, even flags (A Galiza-Leon-Asturias union has interesting flag-making possibilities)
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Could be. By 1938 the communists were the real force in the Republican Army. Let's say that, instead of the Ebro offensive, they implement the so-called Plan P, a daring counter-attack in the weak south of Franco's Spain (In OTL they tried it when it was too late). They have a great success, Stalin sends much more military aid and the republicans win big way in late '38. The communists are so powerfull that they disintegrate the republican democracy and install a soviet-style state. But the core of the communist army is in Andalucia and Galicia, where they fought the last battles. In Barcelona and Bilbao, the nationalists proclam their independence and refuse the communist rule. The french and british send quickly some troops and the communists have to accept their independence.
But a communist spanish republic can butterfly away WWII as we know it.
But a communist spanish republic can butterfly away WWII as we know it.
Max Sinister
Banned
The hard-core Communists were a small group among others IIRC, at least at the beginning.