Ok, no Israel- now what?

HueyLong

Banned
Even though a "No Israel" WI is hugely common, there is very little idea of what to do with all those pesky Jews scattered about Europe, now is there?

Will they become an underclass, cut off as they are from any homes or jobs, and with children likely to have missed out on a good deal of their education? They are concentrated in Eastern Europe, although I'm certain the Jews and Soviets will be glad if many go west.
 
I don't think it will make too much of a difference, being caught in postwar Eastern Europe sucks. AS to the western European Jews (and the Easterners who made it over), they don't face a future much different from their compatriots. It's a long, slow road to prosperity and equality, and in the end they'll get there. Not that many West European Jews went to Israel, a lot of them chose to stay.

It would be interesting if Stalin or Khrushchev decided to let all Jews who applied freely leave to the West since the West 'seems to love them so' (i.e. accuses the Soviets of antisemitic policies, probably rightly so). A case of having to put NATO money where their collective mouths were :p But then, the west dealt reasonably well with refugees from the Warsaw Pact under other conditions.
 
Would you have more Jews and less Turks in Germany under these conditions ?

I don't think many Jews would want to stay in Germany. Jewish charities would probably work on getting them to France, Britain, the Netherlands, the Commonwealth and the USA. Of course after a few decades, there could be a stream of Eastern European Jews wanting to go to West Germany... interesting.
 
I think that as many as possible will try and migrate to US, UK, France etc. OTL the UK Jewish population as declined somewhat postwar so having a larger community would be interesting i think.

what about the Jews in the Middle East, would they be left in peace or gradually emigrate west during the later half of the 20th century. i've had the impression there was considerable anti semitism in the Middle east but without israel to inflame people they might be left alone.
 
According to the Jewish Virtual Library, there were 4,224,000 Jews left in Europe in March of 1946.

If there is no Zionist homeland at this point then I think that we need to look further about where the were significant populations of Jewish people in Europe to actually establish communities. I won't go into smaller nations or nations where the populations actually dipped enough to make them completely insignificant.

Soviet Union: In 1939 the estimated Jewish population was 13,560,000 which even spread over the western parts of the USSR made for significant enclaves of Jewish communities. However, in 1946 that population had been reduced to 2,665,000. Still enough to have communities but on a much smaller scale with a much smaller impact on culture. Whether Khrushchev would have been more lenient on Soviet Jews and let them go west is very doubtful imho.

Poland: In 1939 in Poland the Jewish population was 3,351,000 and in 1946 it was 80,000. There were roughly another 180,000 displaced Polish Jews in other countries but the vast bulk of these were in the USSR where they may not have been allowed the freedom to come home to Poland. As well, the climate in Poland was not good for those Jews that were left. There were several incidents of major violence against Jews after the Holocaust with some estimates of 2,500 Jews killed by the Polish. I can see these people desperately trying to get West before the Iron Curtain fully decends.

Germany: In 1939 in Germany the Jewish population was 215,000 (est) and in 1946 it was 80,000. I think that the vast majority of the German Jews left would have emigrated to the UK, France, Canada and the USA like many did in OTL. The Jewish community in German was destroyed and pretty well remained that way with small inroads being made recently.

Austria: Betweeen 1937 and 1939 over 100,000 Jews either emigrated or were deported from Austria leaving the population already much reduced by the start of the war (estimated at 60k). By 1946, just 18,000 were left. In OTL about 1/2 of those chose to stay but like in Poland incidents of violence against Jews in Austria was high (50-60 killed during 1946 - believed to be mainly vendetta killing amongst the Jewish population). A large number would go to the already mentioned nations above leaving the Jewish community in Austria decimated.

Czechoslovakia: In 1939 the Jewish population was 315,000 and in 1946 it 65,000. However, the majority of the Jews left in Czechoslovakia were displaced persons from Poland and Hungary leaving the actual number of Czech Jews at less than 28,000. The post-holocaust violence there was subdued so I think that this number would have settled in Prague again.

In the Western European Nations the Jewish population would have settled back into life as well as they could. There would have been initiatives to help them just like all other refugees get back on their feet. Perhaps the Marshall Plan in this instance would have specifically addressed the Jews in Europe.

It would be interesting to see that given enough pressure by Jewish political groups if maybe a Colonial possession of one of the victors would have been given to the Jews instead of Israel as a homeland. And if the Jewish groups would have been interested in taking it given it wasn't too hostile of an environment (I mean biosphere not people).

One side effect is that the Jewish homeland gave the Jewish people in Europe a very important human emotion needed for survival - Hope. Without this hope, thus returning to a land that seemingly (or realistically) didn't want them would have sent many of the malnurished and depressed Jews over the edge. The post holocaust survival rates would have been lower amongst these people. Europe's harsh winters and climate would have added to this number.

Anyways, just my thoughts.
 
I don't see why shelter in the New World couldn't be an equal or superior beacon of hope. A homeland in a relatively poor and hostile place like Palestine must have been a bit daunting in itself.

According to the Jewish Virtual Library, there were 4,224,000 Jews left in Europe in March of 1946.

If there is no Zionist homeland at this point then I think that we need to look further about where the were significant populations of Jewish people in Europe to actually establish communities. I won't go into smaller nations or nations where the populations actually dipped enough to make them completely insignificant.

Soviet Union: In 1939 the estimated Jewish population was 13,560,000 which even spread over the western parts of the USSR made for significant enclaves of Jewish communities. However, in 1946 that population had been reduced to 2,665,000. Still enough to have communities but on a much smaller scale with a much smaller impact on culture. Whether Khrushchev would have been more lenient on Soviet Jews and let them go west is very doubtful imho.

Poland: In 1939 in Poland the Jewish population was 3,351,000 and in 1946 it was 80,000. There were roughly another 180,000 displaced Polish Jews in other countries but the vast bulk of these were in the USSR where they may not have been allowed the freedom to come home to Poland. As well, the climate in Poland was not good for those Jews that were left. There were several incidents of major violence against Jews after the Holocaust with some estimates of 2,500 Jews killed by the Polish. I can see these people desperately trying to get West before the Iron Curtain fully decends.

Germany: In 1939 in Germany the Jewish population was 215,000 (est) and in 1946 it was 80,000. I think that the vast majority of the German Jews left would have emigrated to the UK, France, Canada and the USA like many did in OTL. The Jewish community in German was destroyed and pretty well remained that way with small inroads being made recently.

Austria: Betweeen 1937 and 1939 over 100,000 Jews either emigrated or were deported from Austria leaving the population already much reduced by the start of the war (estimated at 60k). By 1946, just 18,000 were left. In OTL about 1/2 of those chose to stay but like in Poland incidents of violence against Jews in Austria was high (50-60 killed during 1946 - believed to be mainly vendetta killing amongst the Jewish population). A large number would go to the already mentioned nations above leaving the Jewish community in Austria decimated.

Czechoslovakia: In 1939 the Jewish population was 315,000 and in 1946 it 65,000. However, the majority of the Jews left in Czechoslovakia were displaced persons from Poland and Hungary leaving the actual number of Czech Jews at less than 28,000. The post-holocaust violence there was subdued so I think that this number would have settled in Prague again.

In the Western European Nations the Jewish population would have settled back into life as well as they could. There would have been initiatives to help them just like all other refugees get back on their feet. Perhaps the Marshall Plan in this instance would have specifically addressed the Jews in Europe.

It would be interesting to see that given enough pressure by Jewish political groups if maybe a Colonial possession of one of the victors would have been given to the Jews instead of Israel as a homeland. And if the Jewish groups would have been interested in taking it given it wasn't too hostile of an environment (I mean biosphere not people).

One side effect is that the Jewish homeland gave the Jewish people in Europe a very important human emotion needed for survival - Hope. Without this hope, thus returning to a land that seemingly (or realistically) didn't want them would have sent many of the malnurished and depressed Jews over the edge. The post holocaust survival rates would have been lower amongst these people. Europe's harsh winters and climate would have added to this number.

Anyways, just my thoughts.
 

ninebucks

Banned
In OTL, Israel led the world in agricultural research, specifically in the development of desert agriculture.

Without an Israel, much of this research is never carried out. It is never applied to other parts of the world, (Africa, Asia, south-west USA, etc...), and, as a result, famine increasingly becomes the reality.

Expect a lot more war throughout the developing world. The Middle East, ironically, relies on a lot of Israeli-inspired agricultural methods to feed its people, without those methods, and, indeed, without the common enemy of Israel, its likely that the entire Middle East will be perpetually unstable.

This in turn would have some impact on the availability of oil. Oil crises in the 50s and 60s don't seem out of the question. This in turn could hamper the post-war economic boom. Which would knock on by making the European integration project less successful, (the project itself has always been driven by grass roots trade).

A less united post-war Europe means a much more uncertain Cold War, as each side feels they have more to gain and more to lose.

The Jews, sitting throughout the (in TTL) much wider Iron Curtain face a tough time. With the East seeing them as Western infiltrators, and the West, to some extent seeing them as Eastern infiltrators...
 
I don't see why shelter in the New World couldn't be an equal or superior beacon of hope. A homeland in a relatively poor and hostile place like Palestine must have been a bit daunting in itself.

To be fair Pasha I think one would have to be Jewish to completely understand the attachment to Palestine. But from an outside looking in view, it was a reclamation (in their view) of their historic homeland. I realize that Zionist were a minority in the Jewish community before the holocaust but after...well after I think that more than anything they wanted a place that they could trace their roots back to. No New World haven could have provided that.

With that said, you raise an interesting point - perhaps France gives French Guyana (talk about a harsh place) over as an Israeli state or the British give over British Hondorus (Belize). The effects of the Mossad/IDF on any perceived socialist/communist agenda of neighboring states would be interesting to say the least.

If the US then extends the same protection to this new Central or South American Israel does that mean that the USA gains an ally (of sorts) there.

Then you have all the same questions again, but perhaps without the religious aspect, what about the indigenous peoples? Where do they go?
 
What happens to Arab politics without Israel to blame? I tend to assume that they would be better for pluralism and democracy

If Palestine is reasonably peaceful I guess it becomes a HUGE tourist attraction once mass air travel happens.

I still wonder if a significant migration to South Africa might have changed the nature of the white electorate in crucial ways
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
That doesn't seem very likely. You would probably have a larger number migrating to the Americas.

Almost certainly correct. Given the circumstances I could see half of the people who went to Palestine IOTL coming to the U.S.

You would also likely see a decent number still emigrate to what would be either the British Mandate, or more likely, Transjordan. The was a sizable Jewish population there, and it had, in the main, co-existed with the marority population.

The rest would proably wind up in the UK, Denmark, ect.
 
It would be interesting if Stalin or Khrushchev decided to let all Jews who applied freely leave to the West since the West 'seems to love them so' (i.e. accuses the Soviets of antisemitic policies, probably rightly so).

I think without Israel there might be less anti-Semitism in communist Eastern Europe. The whole "anti-Zionism" got started mainly after the 6 Days' War.

As for the Arab world, there might be wars between the Hashemites and the Saudis or the traditional monarchies and the republican nationalists. Palestine itself might still become a source of discord if (Trans-)Jordan tries to annex it.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
I think without Israel there might be less anti-Semitism in communist Eastern Europe. The whole "anti-Zionism" got started mainly after the 6 Days' War.

As for the Arab world, there might be wars between the Hashemites and the Saudis or the traditional monarchies and the republican nationalists. Palestine itself might still become a source of discord if (Trans-)Jordan tries to annex it.


Assuming the British Mandate still expired as IOTL, Palestine WOULD have been part of Transjordan (with Gaza, IIRC, part of Egypt). There was never, to my knowledge, any plan to CREATE a state called Palestine.
 

Blink56

Banned
Well I suspect if there is no Israel then the Jewish population will probably stay or emigrate to Western Europe of the USA. The Jewish community will still have some power in the USA. Not as much as the Israel looby. Also they will have a lot of buying power which translates into effectively keeping the crazy people out of the USA.

As for the Middle East though, expecct a lot of the problems in OTL to dissapear but only to be replaced by new ones. One problem is that the USA will want to have an ally in the Middle East. I think thatr Saudi Arabia will be perfect bedfellows woth the USA.
 
what about the Jews in the Middle East, would they be left in peace or gradually emigrate west during the later half of the 20th century. i've had the impression there was considerable anti semitism in the Middle east but without israel to inflame people they might be left alone.

Well, here's the thing. Virtually a lot of the Middle Eastern countries have had at least some Jews in their midst, but they were always a minority - in Yemen, for instance, the Jewish community was isolated for so long that it has been said that some of their recipes (such as, for example, a spicy condiment called zhoug) have been left in a pure form. In Palestine, the Jewish community there was always a minority, never exceeding the Muslim population there (that was until at least after the Balfour Declaration). So I would assume that with no Israel the Jewish community in Palestine (and indeed in a lot of the other Middle Eastern countries) would probably be left alone, either that or they except in faith assilimate.

If you want no Israel you need to have no Theodore Herzl saying that a Jewish state in 1898, thus no Balfour Declaration in 1917; thus equally thwarting the Evangelical Protestants' hopes for the Apocalypse. Plain and simple.

Oh, and BTW, the original British Mandate for Palestine originally included not just the (later) Transjordan mandate and the Gaza Strip, but also the Golan. How would that be in play? Also, what if the original Mandate for Palestine had different borders in the southwest, such as the purple line on this map?

MFAJ0d1m0.jpg


(map from Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs website)
 
Can you show us a map of the north of the original mandate? Is it a line straight line from Metulla-Eastern Jordan, or what?
 
Be glad to. Note that in this map most of the Golan is shown as part of "modern Israel" - in a National Geographic map as part of an article on the Golan a couple of years ago show more land than the 1920 agreement allowed, including Quneitra (Kuneitra on the map).

MFAJ0d1r0.jpg


from the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs website
 
Sephardi Jews' right to Spanish citizenship was granted during Primo de Rivera's government in the 1920's. Since ITTL Sephardis don't have an Israel where to emigrate and they can easily apply for Spanish citizenship, I think we can expect a sizable Sephardi Jewish community in Spain nowadays, mainly composed of Jews from North Africa (particularly Morocco) and maybe even Turkey. And of course, this migration should have been done after Franco's death.
 
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