No Habsburg Spain

Faeelin

Banned
Okay, in OTL, Charles V inheritted the throne of Spain through his mother, Joanna La Loca (I love that title).

However, it only passed through her because a son of Ferdinand and Isabella, Juan, died.

Suppose that he had lived?

Spain would have been linked to Austria-Burgundy through marriage, but it wouldn't have been anywhere near as strong an alliance.

Hmm. When did Spanish revenue and soldiers become important for the Habsburgs? During the Italian Wars, at least.
 

Susano

Banned
The string of unbelivable luck the Habsburgs had with marriages is very "Real World ASBish" anyways. First Burgundy, then Spain which just had been united by marriage before, too, and then Bohemia-Hungary...

Anyways, yeah, without Spanish help, Habsburg is pretty screwed in Italy. But OTOH, so is the Reformation. Now there is a Habsburg Emperor who is inside the Empire all the time. IOTL, Reformation grew at exactly those times when Charles V. was elsewhere. Here, theyll have massive problems. maybe reformation inside Germany is even stillborn. So maybe Habsburg gives up on Italy and concentrates on "heretics" and the Ottomans...
 

Faeelin

Banned
Anyways, yeah, without Spanish help, Habsburg is pretty screwed in Italy. But OTOH, so is the Reformation. Now there is a Habsburg Emperor who is inside the Empire all the time. IOTL, Reformation grew at exactly those times when Charles V. was elsewhere. Here, theyll have massive problems. maybe reformation inside Germany is even stillborn. So maybe Habsburg gives up on Italy and concentrates on "heretics" and the Ottomans...

I dunno.

This assumes that the Habsburgs could have crushed the Reformation, if they had focused on it.

I think you could make a case that sans Spanish backing, the League of Schmaldaken, etc. might have been far more difficult to defeat.

There's always shiny happy Protestant Charles V founds an Imperial Church, of course.
 

Susano

Banned
No, I dont think so. It wasnt just Spanish politics that kept him from doing so as you like to point out. His brother Ferdinand had no need to consider this, and was just as stubborn a catholic. Hm, well, maybe nnot as much, but both Habsburg brothers were pretty convinced Catholics, and not only politicans.

And with the Emperor at home, who knows if the Schmalkalden League is even formed! If Charles V. had been at in Germany in the 1520s, then reformation woul dnot hve spread so much in the first place.
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Okay, in OTL, Charles V inheritted the throne of Spain through his mother, Joanna La Loca (I love that title).

However, it only passed through her because a son of Ferdinand and Isabella, Juan, died.

Suppose that he had lived?

Spain would have been linked to Austria-Burgundy through marriage, but it wouldn't have been anywhere near as strong an alliance.

Hmm. When did Spanish revenue and soldiers become important for the Habsburgs? During the Italian Wars, at least.

The Habsburgs would not have fought the Italian Wars as per OTL without the crown of Aragon and would have been restricted to Maximilian's claims to Milan, so the lack of funding etc for campaigns further South would have been a moot point

If Juan had lived, HE would have inherited both Castile and Aragon, ie Spain, and thus would have inherited Aragon's claims in Naples, and its rivalries with France there. Thus a Spanish-Habsburg alliance is a possibility anyway on this issue. But without a direct interest, it would be a matter that the Habsburgs might well drop out of early and leave Spain high and dry in, especially if France is willing to concede Milan (Note that this 'tradition' of the OTL Habsburgs is well exemplified by Charles V's treatment of alliances with Henry VIII - as soon as he got what he wanted elsewhere, he dropped his ally in it)

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
No, I dont think so. It wasnt just Spanish politics that kept him from doing so as you like to point out. His brother Ferdinand had no need to consider this, and was just as stubborn a catholic. Hm, well, maybe nnot as much, but both Habsburg brothers were pretty convinced Catholics, and not only politicans.

And with the Emperor at home, who knows if the Schmalkalden League is even formed! If Charles V. had been at in Germany in the 1520s, then reformation would not hve spread so much in the first place.

With Charles V based always in the North, Ferdinand would not rise above the rank of Archduke (unless Charles splits him off as independent Duke of Milan or somesuch). Charles is always going to be on-hand and perhaps Ferdinand gets a few brief periods of Regency in the Netherlands or Austria, but he is never going to found the main line of Emperors; here he's not quite an afterthought, but a second-stringer to them.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

Susano

Banned
Yes, I know that. Just pointing out the whoel family were convinced Catholics and stayed catholic because of that, an dnot because of politics.
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Yes, I know that. Just pointing out the whoel family were convinced Catholics and stayed catholic because of that, an dnot because of politics.

Sorry, I wasn't arguing about anything, was just talking off the top of my head...

Does make me wonder if the Turks will attack Vienna in 1520 or whether they would think twice about it if they had Charles to deal with directly ?

Also, any chance that Charles' marriage to Mary Tudor would go ahead ? OTL he was interested in marrying her decades before his son finally ended up doing so... She might even be able to conceive if he did so

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
With Charles V based always in the North, Ferdinand would not rise above the rank of Archduke (unless Charles splits him off as independent Duke of Milan or somesuch). Charles is always going to be on-hand and perhaps Ferdinand gets a few brief periods of Regency in the Netherlands or Austria, but he is never going to found the main line of Emperors; here he's not quite an afterthought, but a second-stringer to them.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf


Perhaps he could be made responsible for the Burgundian Inheritance in the Netherlands.
 

Susano

Banned
Perhaps he could be made responsible for the Burgundian Inheritance in the Netherlands.

Made responsible, as in governor? Certainly. A dynastic split? No way. Charles himself felt more aligned with Burgundy than with Habsburg, so to say. He will not give away the Burgundian lands. And if he has no inheritance elsewhere, Charles will also not give away teh Austrian corelands.

Oh, and it just hit me, Ferdinand gained in his own right Bohemia ad hunagry by marriage. Now, even without the spansh inheritance, the Jagelliones would enter a marriage pac with Habsburg - both had to fear the Ottoman advance, and anyways, at that time nobody thought the marige pact would immidatly lead to Habsburg inheirting the lands. So Ferdinand would become King of Bohemia and King of Hungary...
 
Well, I think that without the Spanish Tercios Charles couldn't get the French out of Milan and would be overall less successfull in his earlier campaigns. That means a stronger France controlling Northern Italy.

It's also important to note that many of the princes that chose Charles as Emperor were bribed with the heavy taxes collected in Spain and Castile in particular, so it's possible that he would have some problems to be elected in the first place. I think that he would be elected anyway - he is the grandson of Maximilian, after all - but his actions in the throne would be less bold than OTL due to his weaker position. This could have ome important butterflies: At least at first, Charles though that the Protestant split could be ressolved through negotioation. If his position isn't as strong as OTL, would the Protestant princes refuse negotiations as they did? Maybe not. The Protestant split could be weakened or even avoided, being substituted by some reforms. Would the Pope accept the deal? Another interesting matter... WI Rome allies with France against the HRE, and Paris becomes the base of the anti-Reformation movement?

Meanwhile, Spain don't wast the riches of the New World in neverending wars in Germany and the Low Countries. So there would be more expeditions to North Africa intead, like a second attempt at Algiers if the first one fails as OTL. Charles' Mediterranean policies where enough disastrous to secure the Ottoman naval expansion.
 

Susano

Banned
It's also important to note that many of the princes that chose Charles as Emperor were bribed with the heavy taxes collected in Spain and Castile in particular, so it's possible that he would have some problems to be elected in the first place.
Bribed with the Fuggers money, primary. Who got compensated by mining rights in Tyrole and Hungary.

I think that he would be elected anyway - he is the grandson of Maximilian, after all - but his actions in the throne would be less bold than OTL due to his weaker position. This could have ome important butterflies: At least at first, Charles though that the Protestant split could be ressolved through negotioation.
Why would he be weaker? Once hes Emperor, hes Emperor, and that all there is to that.

If his position isn't as strong as OTL, would the Protestant princes refuse negotiations as they did?
Err... its eems to me mainly Charles V. refused to make compromises.

Maybe not. The Protestant split could be weakened or even avoided, being substituted by some reforms. Would the Pope accept the deal? Another interesting matter... WI Rome allies with France against the HRE, and Paris becomes the base of the anti-Reformation movement?
Charles wa sintersted in reforms, but not to degree the protestants wanted. The Popes of the time all were not, and with Charles less powerful,w hy would tehy listen to him when they already didnt IOTL?
But as Ive sadi earlier, with the Emperor not always absent, Protestantism can be crushed in the 1520s already. IOTL, protestantism always had its maine xpansion phases when Chales was abroads.
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
So, that's certainly an interesting idea - Ferdinand inherits the kingdoms of Hungary and Bohemia, whilst Charles rules in the Netherlands and Austria, and a Trastamara Spain gets on with its own business...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
You all are assuming that Louis II of Bohemia and Hungary will go as OTL. It doesn't have to end so - there may be continued Jagiellon presence in Bohemia nad Hungary. And if Jagiellon line dies out in those countries later, it shouldn't be assumed that those lands will automatically drop into Habsburgs' hands. The Polish Jagiellon line may decide to go for them...
 

Susano

Banned
Yes, there are always butterflies effects, of course. Thus a timeline writer coudl decide either way. But we are not writing a TL, just disucsisng possibilities, and without butterflies, Ferdinand will become King of Bohemia and Hungary...
 
You all are assuming that Louis II of Bohemia and Hungary will go as OTL. It doesn't have to end so - there may be continued Jagiellon presence in Bohemia nad Hungary. And if Jagiellon line dies out in those countries later, it shouldn't be assumed that those lands will automatically drop into Habsburgs' hands. The Polish Jagiellon line may decide to go for them...

Well we have a lot of possibilities here. The Burgundian inheritance is in retrospect likely to be the primary focus of Charles because of its wealth relative to Austria itself. So a conflict with France will be in the offing because of their opposing interests there and in the North of Italy. He doesn't have the wealth of the New World but he is likely still to be Emporer...

Perhaps a trade off is possible to confront the Turk....

Milan for the disputed terr. in France itself. Mind you I think Milan is still more valuable to both parties here.

Spain is likely to concentrate solely on the American empire and Italy and the Mediterranean, perhaps West Africa? They can partner with either France or The Habsburgs, whic hever is likely to be most beneficial to them.

Ferdinand, perhaps King of Bohemia and Hungary, if Louis is not killed at Mohacs. Will he be more involved with events though in Bohemia and Hungary given that Charles is likely to be totally focused on Germany and the Netherlands. He may even be at Mohacs with an Austrian contingent to support his father-in-law. Though, perhaps not.

But Tizoc is correct in that the sequence of events leading to Mohacs could well change simply allowing Louis to survive the encounter. Perhaps the Hungarians do not even engage the Ottomans there. It was afterall not the preferred option of Louis anyways.


So there is a wide scope for divergence here with a continuing Trastamara Spain. Which personally I have always rather liked.
 
Another interesting supposition.....

Louis does not die at Mohacs as suggested as one possible result...or perhaps in waiting out the Ottoman advance into Hungary and awaitng his Transylvanian re-inforcements...He sires one son in the Spring/Summer of 1526 who then goes on to marry Catherine of Poland ( mind you are they far enough removed to contemplate). Sigismund ends up as King of Poland-Lithuania and Bohemia-Hungary, assuming Anne and Hedwig are still without issue.

Ouch...Actually Hedwig does have issue..How come Joachim or his son were never elected as King of Poland-Lith.?

Now that would be an interesting counterweight to the rising Russian influence in the East and the Hapsburgs in the HRE. They may even end up the Superpower in East/Central Europe of this period.

It will do away with the dynastic struggle between P-L and Sweden as well, opening perhaps an avenue for co-operation there.
 
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Well we have a lot of possibilities here. The Burgundian inheritance is in retrospect likely to be the primary focus of Charles because of its wealth relative to Austria itself. So a conflict with France will be in the offing because of their opposing interests there and in the North of Italy. He doesn't have the wealth of the New World but he is likely still to be Emporer...

And he'd be quite a strong emperor (not as strong as OTL - but Charles V. power IOTL is quite ASBish anyway), since Burgundy plus Austria plus Bohemia would be quite a powerbase. He'd concentrate on his belongings in Germany, as was stated many times above, which means that he'd still have to fight the French (over Burgundy), the Protestants, and the Ottomans - yet the later two would be significantly more important to him than IOTL.

IMO, Charles would be more successful ITTL, since Being a successful emperor in the HRE only is significantly easier than being a successul "universal" emperor as he seemed to be IOTL.

Spain is likely to concentrate solely on the American empire and Italy and the Mediterranean, perhaps West Africa? They can partner with either France or The Habsburgs, whic hever is likely to be most beneficial to them.

I'd say the Habsburgs, since the French would be their main competitors in Italy and the northern frontier.

Ferdinand, perhaps King of Bohemia and Hungary, if Louis is not killed at Mohacs. Will he be more involved with events though in Bohemia and Hungary given that Charles is likely to be totally focused on Germany and the Netherlands. He may even be at Mohacs with an Austrian contingent to support his father-in-law. Though, perhaps not.

That would really be interesting: What about a hungarian victory in Mohacs thanks to Ferdinand? What about Ferdinand dying as well in Hungary against the Turks, enraging his brother against the Ottoman threat? Would protestantism be as important to him as OTL if his brother died against heathens just some days away from Vienna?
 
Trastamara Spain would have concentrated in the Americas and in the north of Africa (Oran, Alger and Tunis). They would probably side with Charles V against France (following the marriage policy of Isabel and Ferdinand), but the spanish kings would be more flexible to deal with the french.

Moreover France, trying to have Spain on her side would be probably less friendly with ottomans, even more if they are defeated by Hungary and they become less useful against the Hapsburg.

But what would do England? Side with the Hapsburg and the Trastamara? Propose a Hispano-English block trying to take advantage of the rivalry of France and the Empire?
 
Trastamara Spain would have concentrated in the Americas and in the north of Africa (Oran, Alger and Tunis). They would probably side with Charles V against France (following the marriage policy of Isabel and Ferdinand), but the spanish kings would be more flexible to deal with the french.

Moreover France, trying to have Spain on her side would be probably less friendly with ottomans, even more if they are defeated by Hungary and they become less useful against the Hapsburg.

But what would do England? Side with the Hapsburg and the Trastamara? Propose a Hispano-English block trying to take advantage of the rivalry of France and the Empire?

Depends on Juan and whether he is able to leave his wife with Children that haven't died... It would probably be an eldest son of him that marries Isabella of Portugal then instead of Charles. From that standpoint the marriage to Mary Tudor is definitely possible and will change the efect of the Italian Wars....
Suffolk and Charles V march on Paris from the North perhaps. Juan defends Navarre.
 
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