What would happen to Austro-Hungary if the Central Powers win? If disintegration and collapse are in its immediate future even if it is on the winning side, what does it have to do to keep itself together and survive the Postwar world?
Austro-Hungary in a Central Powers victorious world
- Thread starter The Federalist
- Start date
Max Sinister
Banned
At first, the empire will be bigger, probably including most of Serbia and Montenegro, maybe some border areas, and possibly parts of Poland (unless it falls completely under German influence).
Franz Ferdinand is dead, so his Triple Monarchy is improbable. New emperor Karl - that's the question; IOTL he died in exile on Madeira of pneumonia in 1922, but here we have many different circumstances. His wife Zita may have some influence on him and his son Otto.
The empire has to be reformed, esp. with more people, but it'll be a lot of work. Karl could easily fail, and then it might fall still apart, and the German half incorporated into Germany.
Franz Ferdinand is dead, so his Triple Monarchy is improbable. New emperor Karl - that's the question; IOTL he died in exile on Madeira of pneumonia in 1922, but here we have many different circumstances. His wife Zita may have some influence on him and his son Otto.
The empire has to be reformed, esp. with more people, but it'll be a lot of work. Karl could easily fail, and then it might fall still apart, and the German half incorporated into Germany.
Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy
Banned
The United States of Greater Austria or dissolution. They would most certainly not annex most of Serbia and Montenegro, the ethnic situation was complicated enough as it was. They will, however, take some areas in the Romanian Carpathians for defensive purposes.
Bright day
New constitution severely curtaining rights of crown lands and individuals. OTL from 1914 to 1917 Austria was essentialy a military dicatorship, the power resting in hands of German clique by 1915 (Biography of Josef Pekař, in czech only sorry), it wasn't untill after Karl became emperor that things have again swung other way, and that partly because of "success" in the war. The war has let the genie out of bottle, absolutist placed all their bets on Germany (whereas the the other parties and cliques were quite torn on the issue).
New constitution severely curtaining rights of crown lands and individuals. OTL from 1914 to 1917 Austria was essentialy a military dicatorship, the power resting in hands of German clique by 1915 (Biography of Josef Pekař, in czech only sorry), it wasn't untill after Karl became emperor that things have again swung other way, and that partly because of "success" in the war. The war has let the genie out of bottle, absolutist placed all their bets on Germany (whereas the the other parties and cliques were quite torn on the issue).
Ramshackle Empire
This depends in large part when the CP wins. It is hard to see AH survivng in a even a reworked form if the war lasts until 1918. The deconstruction had gone too far.
If the win is very early though Count Tisza is going to be a major stumbling block.
I agree that Serbia and Montenergo would not be annexed, only some relatively sparesely populated but strategically important areas.
Poland is another matter. They may end up with a large chunk of Congress Poland. While the Poles were normally the most Kaisertreu of the Slavs if nearly all of Poland is in their hands I could see major problems with Pilsudski.
This depends in large part when the CP wins. It is hard to see AH survivng in a even a reworked form if the war lasts until 1918. The deconstruction had gone too far.
If the win is very early though Count Tisza is going to be a major stumbling block.
I agree that Serbia and Montenergo would not be annexed, only some relatively sparesely populated but strategically important areas.
Poland is another matter. They may end up with a large chunk of Congress Poland. While the Poles were normally the most Kaisertreu of the Slavs if nearly all of Poland is in their hands I could see major problems with Pilsudski.
As long as A-H has a strong leader, it can survive. Once the A-H Tito dies, A-H falls apart like Yugoslavia did after Tito died.
Riain
Banned
I think nationalism was to strong for a polyglot, unassimilated empire to survive after the upheaval of WW1. Think of the role of nationalism in the wars of the previous 50 years, people wanted independence not imperial unity. People are a pain in the arse to rule when they have a contrary idea in their heads. At best AH could have become a federation, but I think a German controlled customs and military union would be the most realistic.
As others have pointed out, it depends very much on how long the war lasts and how long it is one. Despite all the comments which appear on AH.com about how unstable the Dual Monarchy was, signs of strain didn't become that severe until late 1917 or 1918. If the Central Powers win in 1914, I suspect Austria-Hungary lingers on for a long time. If the Central Powers win in 1916, then it will also probably last a while.
Of course, incorporating Serbia would be a very bad idea... but that wouldn't stop the Habsburgs from doing it.
Of course, incorporating Serbia would be a very bad idea... but that wouldn't stop the Habsburgs from doing it.
United States of Greater Austria? Wow, cool, that'd have been a really interesting concept...
United States of Greater Austria? Wow, cool, that'd have been a really interesting concept...
Yes, it would have been a way for the various ethnicities (South Slavs, Poles, Italians) to have some form of representation, but still power would be centralized in Vienna...not sure about Budapest though. This stems from the idea that Franz Ferdinand would have pushed for a tri-partite system (Austrians, Magyars, and Slavs) had he lived and become Emperor.
Anyway....were the CPs to win, they would need to do so quickly. The initial problem for them was trying to defeat Russia and Serbia at the same time. Then, in 1915, a third front opened up with Italy. If they can prevent this 3rd front--heck even get Italy to honor it's pre-war alliance, that would be great for A-H; means too they can worry less about Italian nationalism affecting places like Trentino under A-H rule.
So...for post-war ITTL they would ideally need Bulgaria (or whoever) to run a Balkan League, which would curb Serbian ambitions. Also, if the ATL war ends before OTL Russian Revolution, there is less concern about revolution, Bolshevism or otherwise, crossing the border into A-H. Whatever happens though, Germany would be the main power on the continent.
As mentioned above by Prinz Eugen, AH would fall apart like Yugoslavia. If there is some kind of economic and military union (probably - the Central powers won the war!), one can imagine German armies to stop some uprising. Maybe this provokes an all-to-all-fighting with changing alliances. In the end, Austria-Hungary would dissolve. Maybe German Austria (with South Carinthia / Slovenia?) and Bohemia-Marovia join the German Empire, whereas Poland receives Galicia, Rumania part of Transylvania. Hungary and Croatia become independent. When? 1920s or 1930s.
Alcuin
Banned
Begin a process of de-Austrianisation, aimed at producing a confederation of equal nations. Perhaps it would call itself Mitteleuropa, or perhaps the European Union. As well as ensuring that living standards improve throughout the former Empire, it would also work to persuade various bits of the former Ottoman Empire to join voluntarily.
Susano
Banned
It depends on just when the first signs of dissolution begin. I fits at the end of the war or in the immidiate phase thereafter, then goodbye AH. However, if AH manages to stay along for some years after the war, then it saved. How could it break apart if Germany can simply intervene militarily to hold it together?
Redbeard
Banned
As long as the K&K Armee stays intact, the Empire will live.
I doubt the various nationalist groups by 1918 were strong enough to have a go vs. an intact army, the OTL situation was much opportunizing there being no K&K Armee to keep the Empire together.
If the Empire is reformed in the direction of a federal state the Hungarians are likely to rebel. If they win the civil war the whole Empire is likely to fall, but if not (i.e. the K&K Armee staying intact) I think the empire will go on, but eventually perhaps as a republic.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
I doubt the various nationalist groups by 1918 were strong enough to have a go vs. an intact army, the OTL situation was much opportunizing there being no K&K Armee to keep the Empire together.
If the Empire is reformed in the direction of a federal state the Hungarians are likely to rebel. If they win the civil war the whole Empire is likely to fall, but if not (i.e. the K&K Armee staying intact) I think the empire will go on, but eventually perhaps as a republic.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
Why?
In 1915 Karl Stürgk is Austrian (Cisleithanien being abolished) prime minister and he is part of Nationalverband and conservative circles. Yes, while goverments is authoritian, he did stop archduke Friedrich and cont von Hötzendorf from actually establishing military dictatorship in Bohemia, regardless of what I said before (a hyperbole).
Agreed on all counts. AH needs a very early win, and also to be considerate at the peace table. Maybe a change of dinasty in Serbia.
If they want to keep Italy allied (or at least a friendly neutral) there is an easy way: trust the German advice, and give Italy compensation for Bosnia and North Albania. Since 1900, AH always followed a very hostile foreign policy against Italy.
Grey Wolf
Donor
I believe there are some bastard Obrenovics around, and IIRC the Habsburgs always got on well with that dynasty
I'm not sure what you mean here - compensation for them in what way ? North Albania, is that an area annexed by Montenegro ? But how is Italy needing compensation for it ?
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy
Banned
Not always.
He probably means the A-H annexation of Bosnia-Herzegovina and WWI occupation of northern Albania, though I don't think Italian interests were really hurt by the former. The Germans had hoped to convince A-H to give the Trentino to Italy in order to keep them neutral or get them to join, I'm not sure which.
Redbeard
Banned
I have a feeling of a Central Powers victory also eventually meaning a socialdemocratic supremacy in first Germany and then A-H. The Monarchs will be given the choice of either accepting a constitutional symbolic role or get lost.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard