American Falklands War

Thande

Thande

Donor
OK, we've discussed the possibility of a French Falklands War. How about an American equivalent?

It would have to be at a time when the world thinks that the US has gone soft, as the Argies thought of Britain when we cancelled the carriers. Maybe just after the pull-out from Vietnam or after the Iran hostage crisis.

What far-flung territory (and it has to be somewhere that most people can't find on a map) could we use? Guam, maybe? And what countries would have a claim to it?
 

GBW

Perhaps a regime in Samoa decides to go after American Samoa? A worse conflict in gaining their independence from New Zealand leads to military governments?
 
Thande

Thande

Donor
GBW said:
Perhaps a regime in Samoa decides to go after American Samoa? A worse conflict in gaining their independence from New Zealand leads to military governments?
Click to expand...

That sounds like a reasonable possibility.
 

Dean_the_Young

Couldn't one argue that Saddam thought the US was soft and wouldn't intervente in the Gulf War?

I don't remember the exact details or name, but as the Vietnam War was winding down a group of fighters from a neighboring country seized a US ship and took all the passengers hostage. They expected the US to roll over, but a massive marine operation was undertaken to recover the ship and passengers was taken in concert with an island assault, and at some point towards the end an FAE was dropped on the island.



Perhapse China thinks that the US can't be bothered to protect Taiwan? Or Cuba tries to seize Gitmo? I can't find Gitmo on the map, after all. ;)


One small problem is that the US has relatively few disputed territories period (the American southwest is mainly hypothetical), most territories being in the Pacific having no real neighbors. Something more likely is that a US comitment or base is attacked, rather than the US itself per say.

Unless you think Canada or Mexico (or both) are going to hit the US?
 

Fellatio Nelson

Dean_the_Young said:
I don't remember the exact details or name, but as the Vietnam War was winding down a group of fighters from a neighboring country seized a US ship and took all the passengers hostage. They expected the US to roll over, but a massive marine operation was undertaken to recover the ship and passengers was taken in concert with an island assault, and at some point towards the end an FAE was dropped on the island.
Click to expand...

You thinking of this?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayaguez_incident


I can't think of any 2nd/3rd world nation that'd do anything to provoke a US "Falklands".

Even in the post-Vietnam malaise, the USN and USMC were just too powerful.
 

ninebucks

Banned
A first half of 20th Century POD brings us a Fascist France that survives until the present day.

In the 1970s, America gets humiliated in some foreign policy issue and France, staged from their massive Polynesian floating fortresses, begin an invasion of the Line Islands, with the view of attacking Hawai'i.
 

Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy

Banned
The Panama Canal and Okinawa (under US administration until 1972) would be interesting, though the latter would require some serious changes in Japan. The seizure of Subic Bay by a Communist goverment in the Philippines could work too.

Since an embassy is sovereign territory, it could be argued that the scenario happened in OTL in Iran, except that the US didn't get out of it well.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Sans' ASB intervention this is a non starter.

Guam?:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

You mean Anderson AFB (you know, the one with all the B-52s, P-3C and Phantoms (1970's) now F-15 C & E models), the Naval Magazine, Pacific & the base of NUMEROUS SSN's? That Guam?

Be easier to invade Wales.:eek:

The simple fact is, post 1945, there has NEVER been, and it is impossible to create (again w/o ASB's) any time that the USN couldn't flat crush any opposing naval force (outside of the Red Navy at the height of the Cold War and even then & off the Kola Peninsula I'll take the USN & give the points).


The whole Falklands fiasco only happened becaue the Argies thought the RN COULDN'T project force that far South. It wasn't a measurement of will, or lack thereof, it was a judgement of ABILITY. The Argentines failed to factor in the surpsingly capable Harrier AND the almost unimaginable advantage that a Modern SSN had against their navy. HMS Conqueror, by herself, effectively ended any chance that the Argentine Navy had of preventing the RN assault. She literally chased the Veinticinco de Mayo & her air wing back into port until the end of the war. That radically altered the Argentine air threat to a single axis, and also greatly limited the loiter and attack time available to the Super Entards and A-4s when they struck against the RN Task Force.

While there has often been some question about American WILLIGNESS to commit to a given fight, the ABILTY has never been in question.
 

strangeland

North Korea makes a grab for some minor Ryuku Islands (had the US kept them after WWII), or for Dokdo. In the case of the latter, I doubt anyone would care. In the case of the former, well given the distances involved, it's probably ASB territory, but NK does have some subs to land commandos, and some hard-to-spot An-2s which could fly in at night and keep them supplied and reinforced to a limited extent.
 

zoomar

I think a situation equivalent to the Falklands would have to involve the seizure of actual American territory, with a residemt population which predominantly wished to remain American. I'm not sure a military installation by itself would qualify.

The most obvious case might be Guam, although some of the smaller pacific islands at the western end of the Hawaiian or Aleutian chains might qualify. Several decades ago the Canal Zone would have been a great example (in fact it could be argued that the transfer of the CZ to Panama was an example of a weakened USA abandoning US territory to a small regional power).

Actually, Hawaii itself could attempt to secede from the US (there is some native sentiment in that regard). Would there be an Abe Lincoln in the White House stand up to this in 2025?
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
zoomar said:
I think a situation equivalent to the Falklands would have to involve the seizure of actual American territory, with a residemt population which predominantly wished to remain American. I'm not sure a military installation by itself would qualify.

The most obvious case might be Guam, although some of the smaller pacific islands at the western end of the Hawaiian or Aleutian chains might qualify. Several decades ago the Canal Zone would have been a great example (in fact it could be argued that the transfer of the CZ to Panama was an example of a weakened USA abandoning US territory to a small regional power).

You mean that following a treaty is a sign of weakness?:eek:
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
 

GBW

zoomar said:
I think a situation equivalent to the Falklands would have to involve the seizure of actual American territory, with a residemt population which predominantly wished to remain American.
Click to expand...
That seems to count for the Samoa-American Samoa one I suggested.
 

Dean_the_Young

zoomar said:
Actually, Hawaii itself could attempt to secede from the US (there is some native sentiment in that regard). Would there be an Abe Lincoln in the White House stand up to this in 2025?
Click to expand...


Three main problems in that regard.

1. Pearl Harbor. Still a major US military base. Staffed by loyal US soldiers mostly not from Hawaii.

2. The "natives" are vastly outnumbered by immigrants. And don't hold reigns of political power.

3. The "natives" pushing for secession are a crazy and pathetic lot. They believe not only in secession, but want to eject everyone else as well. And return to their "natural" state, which means you can drive and find them living in tiny huts fishing for a living, and otherwise being dirt poor.


Unless a nuclear power like China or Russia threatened to nuke if the US responded (which would likely be a bluff), any resistance would be walked over.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
fhaessig said:
What about if Cuba took guantanamo back?
Click to expand...

Successive U.S. administrations have prayed for Cuba to do something that asinine for pushing 50 years. Barring the USSR deciding that the World was going to end that day, Castro would quite quickly stopped being a thorn in Washington's side.

The Cuban vote is the swing vote in a swing state. Being the Party that finally crushed Castro would get that vote (and likely the White House) for at least four or five elections.

BTW: That should be TRY to take Gitmo back.

The United States has better than 200 Combat aircraft (This is a very conservitive, current, figure. Back during the Cold War I believe the number was near 500) within three hours of Cuba. Cuba's military would become very dead, very quickly if such a foolish assault was attempted.
 

ninebucks

Banned
strangeland said:
North Korea makes a grab for some minor Ryuku Islands (had the US kept them after WWII), or for Dokdo. In the case of the latter, I doubt anyone would care. In the case of the former, well given the distances involved, it's probably ASB territory, but NK does have some subs to land commandos, and some hard-to-spot An-2s which could fly in at night and keep them supplied and reinforced to a limited extent.
Click to expand...

Its probably more likely that South Korea would try for them. They have quite a potential for building up a strong navy (in OTL South Korea has the most productive shipyards in the world), and for most of their history they have been ruled by leaders just as crazy as their neighbours to the North, indeed, South Korean democracy was a bit of a happy accident.
 

Jason

GBW said:
That seems to count for the Samoa-American Samoa one I suggested.
Click to expand...

Problem is Samoa could not maintain a military that could even hope to defeat the smallest american military counter-response. Its population is not any larger than Tonga (if I recall aright) and that Kingdom's entire military (large for such a small nation) doesn't even number 500 (exc reserves)-even if they put the entire adult population into the military I doubt Samoa could even think about it, unless the entire population went insane beforehand?

Could someone try to seize somewhere like Palua-it is now independent but relies on the USA for defence, etc
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top