What if the Palestinians never left?

What if there never was a exodus of Palestinian Arabs from what became Israel? I know there are alot of theories as to why they left, but lets ignore them so this doesnt become a flame war.

The UN estimate of the amount of Palestinians that left between 1948 and 1950 is 711,000. Today there descendants number almost 5 million. Now Im sure that many would Still move to the West Bank and the Gaza strip but very few become refugees in other countries.

So lets say that todays Israel has a population of 10 million (from 7 million). Almost half of it is not Jewish.

What effects would this have on the State of Israel? I think they would probably be less apt to annex more lands in the West Bank, because this would increase the amount of Non-Jews.

What effects would there be on Israel's neighbors without large refugee camps? The palestinians in Jordan have had a huge impact on their resident country, even trying to over throw the monarchy at one point.

thoughts?
 

Leo Caesius

Banned
Don't forget Lebanon. The Lebanese Civil War is essentially an extension of the Arab-Israeli Conflict. Without Palestinians in Lebanon, quite a lot gets butterflied away. The Maronites are still top dog, no Hezbollah, etc.

I still tend to think that Palestinian Christians would emigrate. As it stands, they emigrate from Israel and the Occupied Territories at a far greater rate than their Muslim countrymen, and the number of Christians in Israel has gone from something like 20% in 1948 to less than 2% today (of which a large part are expats, not indigenous Palestinian Christians). 35% of them were forced out in 1948, and that was the beginning of the end.

The domestic and foreign politics of the State of Israel are going to be very different. As I see it, it could go either way.
 
Don't forget Lebanon. The Lebanese Civil War is essentially an extension of the Arab-Israeli Conflict. Without Palestinians in Lebanon, quite a lot gets butterflied away. The Maronites are still top dog, no Hezbollah, etc.

I still tend to think that Palestinian Christians would emigrate. As it stands, they emigrate from Israel and the Occupied Territories at a far greater rate than their Muslim countrymen, and the number of Christians in Israel has gone from something like 20% in 1948 to less than 2% today (of which a large part are expats, not indigenous Palestinian Christians). 35% of them were forced out in 1948, and that was the beginning of the end.

The domestic and foreign politics of the State of Israel are going to be very different. As I see it, it could go either way.

Why do Christians leave Israel? And where do they go?
 

Leo Caesius

Banned
Why do Christians leave Israel? And where do they go?
As Palestinians, they are second class citizens, and as Christians they are a double minority. Ironically enough, Muslim-Christian relations are better in Israel-Palestine than they are anywhere else in the Middle East. But they can do better elsewhere. They look at places like South and Central America, where Christian Palestinians have become millionaires and bigshot politicians, even heads of state, and then they look at their life in the Holy Land and decide that it simply isn't worth it. They leave for a better life for themselves and their families, and for a sense of dignity that is sadly lacking back home.

In a generation or two, the Christian sites in Israel are going to be open-air museums for tourists from America and Europe.
 

Ibn Warraq

Banned
As Palestinians, they are second class citizens, and as Christians they are a double minority. Ironically enough, Muslim-Christian relations are better in Israel-Palestine than they are anywhere else in the Middle East. But they can do better elsewhere. They look at places like South and Central America, where Christian Palestinians have become millionaires and bigshot politicians, even heads of state, and then they look at their life in the Holy Land and decide that it simply isn't worth it. They leave for a better life for themselves and their families, and for a sense of dignity that is sadly lacking back home.

In a generation or two, the Christian sites in Israel are going to be open-air museums for tourists from America and Europe.

Are Muslim-Christian relations in Israel-Palestine really better than they are in Egypt or Syria?

Also, while I do know that the Palestinian territories have been hemmorraging Christians ever since the Oslo accords, my understanding is that the exodus from Israel proper hasn't been nearly so bad.

I'll also add to Leo's point that many Christians I think felt like they were being caught in the middle of a battle between two armies neither of who liked them. Moreover, I don't think any Christian Arabs in the Palestinian territories have any illusions about what life would be like for them under Hamas.
 

Leo Caesius

Banned
Are Muslim-Christian relations in Israel-Palestine really better than they are in Egypt or Syria?
Point taken with Syria, as the Christians there enjoy a special relationship with the Alawi ruling class, even though the Sunni majority there probably see the Christians as part of the problem. I can tell you that many of the country's Christians fear what will happen once the Asad regime crumbles, and get really hot around the collar whenever Bush and co start talking about "regime change." As for Egypt, no, Palestinian Christians never faced the combination of soft discrimination and random terror that Copts face, particularly in the south of the country, although their relationship with the settlers approximates something like it.

Also, while I do know that the Palestinian territories have been hemmorraging Christians ever since the Oslo accords, my understanding is that the exodus from Israel proper hasn't been nearly so bad.
No, it has been just as bad if not worse. Whether we're talking about Nazareth or Bethlehem, or Jerusalem or the Galilee, Christians are leaving in droves. At the turn of the century, Jerusalem was half Christian or more; today the Christian presence there is negligible. The Christians of Jerusalem have a deteriorating relationship with the Israelis, particularly the settlers; just look at what happened at St. John's Hospice in 1990.

I'll also add to Leo's point that many Christians I think felt like they were being caught in the middle of a battle between two armies neither of who liked them.
You mean like George Habash and Ghassan Kanafani?
 
Perhaps if the UN's original partition plan holds up, and the Israelis don't have to fight a war with the Arab countries, the seige mentality that developed can largely be avoided--and more Arab Palestinians can stay in Israel proper, with many comming to work in the Jewish state from the Arab state of Palestine.
 

Ibn Warraq

Banned
No, it has been just as bad if not worse. Whether we're talking about Nazareth or Bethlehem, or Jerusalem or the Galilee, Christians are leaving in droves. At the turn of the century, Jerusalem was half Christian or more; today the Christian presence there is negligible. The Christians of Jerusalem have a deteriorating relationship with the Israelis, particularly the settlers; just look at what happened at St. John's Hospice in 1990.

You mean like George Habash and Ghassan Kanafani?

While I like to think I'm fairly well-read about the Middle East or at least well read for someone lacking a doctrate I have to confess I don't know what happened at St. John's Hospice in 1990.

Also while Habash is obviously Christian, I don't think Kanafani is. According to the Encyclopedia of the Palestinians on Palestineremembered.com(admittedly not the most reliable source) he came from a Muslim family, though he was educated in Christian schools. I have to admit I was a bit shocked since I thought all the major leaders of the PFLP were Christian.

Nevertheless, you make a good point and you could easily substitute Nayef Hawatmeh or Leilah Khaled for Kanafini. The PFLP and the DFLP were both dominated by Christians, but my understanding is that the popularity and influence of both groups has nosedived since the early 80s with the rise of Islamicism.

It's also worth noting that Fatah has, to the best of my knowledge always been almost entirely, if not entirely Muslim, even when Christians made up 10% of the Palestinian population. Not surprising since they began all military communiques with the phrase, "In the name of God, the all-merciful, the beneficent."

Now regardless of what some Christians like the late Edward Said in the Palestinian diaspora might say, I think most Christians in the Palestinian territories have seen their world get much worse since the Oslo Accords and are not nearly as fond of the idea of "Palestinian self-determination" as they were two or three generations ago.

To be fair, while I've spent some time in the area, I never had any conversations with Palestinian Christians unless you count haggling with merchants, so I have to rely on the perceptions and writings of others. However, I don't think I'm wrong. For example, in his Season in Bethlehem, Joshua Hammer, the former Jerusalem Bureau Chief for Newsweek talked to many Christians who described being bullied and worse by Muslim militias and security forces of the Palestinian authority. He told stories of Christians being forced out of their homes, having their lands appropriated, and losing their businesses. IIRC he claimed the population of Bethlehem had declined by roughly 50%.
 

Leo Caesius

Banned
While I like to think I'm fairly well-read about the Middle East or at least well read for someone lacking a doctrate I have to confess I don't know what happened at St. John's Hospice in 1990.
St. John's Hospice is a four-building complex that was once upon a time built by the Hospitalers at the entrance to the Church of the Nativity and is today owned by the Greek Orthodox Patriarch (or, rather, was). The Israeli government funded a group of settlers seeking property in the Old City, who themselves secretly purchased property in the complex through an Armenian intermediary. In 1990, in a surprise attack, it was forcefully occupied by these new landlords, the settlers, who ransacked the interior, desecrating the site, and assaulting the Greek Orthodox monks who were in the Hospice. It is today an apartment block known as Neot David.

There are, as it happens, more Palestinian Christians in Chile than in all of Israel-Palestine, and many more Christians from Jerusalem in Sydney than in Jerusalem. It was like this before the PA took control, and long before Islamism was ever a serious concern in Palestine.

Also while Habash is obviously Christian, I don't think Kanafani is. According to the Encyclopedia of the Palestinians on Palestineremembered.com(admittedly not the most reliable source) he came from a Muslim family, though he was educated in Christian schools. I have to admit I was a bit shocked since I thought all the major leaders of the PFLP were Christian.
That surprises me. I thought I remember reading that he was Orthodox in the intro to the English language version of Men in the Sun and Other Stories, but I'm willing to acknowledge that I could have missed the boat there.

Now regardless of what some Christians like the late Edward Said in the Palestinian diaspora might say, I think most Christians in the Palestinian territories have seen their world get much worse since the Oslo Accords and are not nearly as fond of the idea of "Palestinian self-determination" as they were two or three generations ago.
This is true, to the extent that relations have been strained by Arafat's mishandling of the PA and the rise of Islamism. However, it would be a mistake to think that the Palestinian Christians have received any better treatment (or expect any better treatment) from the Israelis. If anything, the demographic decline of Christians in Israel-Palestine has been far more acute than any other country in the Middle East since the treaty of Lausanne, with the possible exception of Iraq. We'll just have to wait and see in which of the two countries Christians become extinct first. Before 2003 I would have said Israel for sure, but now I'm not so sure.

For example, in his Season in Bethlehem, Joshua Hammer, the former Jerusalem Bureau Chief for Newsweek talked to many Christians who described being bullied and worse by Muslim militias and security forces of the Palestinian authority. He told stories of Christians being forced out of their homes, having their lands appropriated, and losing their businesses. IIRC he claimed the population of Bethlehem had declined by roughly 50%.
The Bethlehemites did decline by roughly 50% ... since 1948. It didn't happen after 1993, it was already well advanced by the time of Oslo. As for Christians being forced out of their homes, having their lands appropriated, and losing their business, this has been pretty much been their situation since that fateful date. I fail to see the difference whether an Islamist militia or a gang of settlers is doing the deed. What's obvious to me, at least, is that the Jewish state hasn't proven to be any more benevolent towards its religious minorities than its Arab neighbors (and considerably worse than, say, Syria).
 
Is there any way the christian exodus from ME would not happened? What would it take to make them want to stay and the muslims (and jews) not to wanting them to go?
 
There was no way in which a viable Jewish democratic state could have functioned with such a large Arab minority. This is the reason why today it has become a consensus viewpoint in Israel that it is simply impossible to hang onto the West Bank and Gaza AND STILL REMAIN A DEMOCRATIC STATE

thus it is clear in this butterfly that Israel would have become either a binational state or thrown democracy out . The only other alternative would have been to reduce even further the boundaries of the state virtually to the environs of Tel Aviv in order to preserve a Jewish majority - and this would be no more than a sort of Hong kong
 

Ibn Warraq

Banned
St. John's Hospice is a four-building complex that was once upon a time built by the Hospitalers at the entrance to the Church of the Nativity and is today owned by the Greek Orthodox Patriarch (or, rather, was). The Israeli government funded a group of settlers seeking property in the Old City, who themselves secretly purchased property in the complex through an Armenian intermediary. In 1990, in a surprise attack, it was forcefully occupied by these new landlords, the settlers, who ransacked the interior, desecrating the site, and assaulting the Greek Orthodox monks who were in the Hospice. It is today an apartment block known as Neot David.

There are, as it happens, more Palestinian Christians in Chile than in all of Israel-Palestine, and many more Christians from Jerusalem in Sydney than in Jerusalem. It was like this before the PA took control, and long before Islamism was ever a serious concern in Palestine.

That surprises me. I thought I remember reading that he was Orthodox in the intro to the English language version of Men in the Sun and Other Stories, but I'm willing to acknowledge that I could have missed the boat there.

This is true, to the extent that relations have been strained by Arafat's mishandling of the PA and the rise of Islamism. However, it would be a mistake to think that the Palestinian Christians have received any better treatment (or expect any better treatment) from the Israelis. If anything, the demographic decline of Christians in Israel-Palestine has been far more acute than any other country in the Middle East since the treaty of Lausanne, with the possible exception of Iraq. We'll just have to wait and see in which of the two countries Christians become extinct first. Before 2003 I would have said Israel for sure, but now I'm not so sure.

The Bethlehemites did decline by roughly 50% ... since 1948. It didn't happen after 1993, it was already well advanced by the time of Oslo. As for Christians being forced out of their homes, having their lands appropriated, and losing their business, this has been pretty much been their situation since that fateful date. I fail to see the difference whether an Islamist militia or a gang of settlers is doing the deed. What's obvious to me, at least, is that the Jewish state hasn't proven to be any more benevolent towards its religious minorities than its Arab neighbors (and considerably worse than, say, Syria).

What happened at St. John's Hospice is certainly quite depressing but unfortunately not all that surprising.

I never meant to suggest that the Israelis were any better than the Muslim leadership. That's why I said I think many Christian felt like they were "caught between two armies neither of whom liked them."

Also, while I'm far more forgiving and supportive of Israel than most people on AH.com, you don't need to convince me that many of the settlers are collections of sadistic, religious thugs. Once, while walking along the road near Hebron with a small group of people, all of whom were Palestinians or Muslim-Americans, one settler decided to lean out the passenger window of his car, loudly announce "Palestine is a myth!" and then fire a burst from his Uzi above our heads, and then laugh at us all hitting the ground and cowering in fear as his partner drove off.

That was the single scariest moment of my life. I'll also note that the settler yelled his insult in completely unaccented English and looked no older than 20 or 21 so he was almost certainly an American not a Sabra.
 
Well, what if after the British pull out that the new state of Israel be not just a Jewish state? By that I mean Israel would have everyone who lives there - Jewish, Christian, Muslim - be equal citizens? I'm sure for hardcore Zionists like Ben-Gurion that might have been hard to swallow, but what if that view prevailed amongst the Israelis? Arabs already make up 20% of Israel's population, what if they decide that Jewish rule is better than their British counterparts of King Hussein next door and stay? The IDF in that scenario might be tempted to annex the West Bank and Gaza in that scenario.

The Jews had been persecuted for thousands of years, so they might have just said "we will not persecute others because of our past."

Boy, the Middle East would be different today, huh?
 
1) Saying the Palestinians "left" is a bit too suttle. They were banished, cast out. Persecuted. Their villages were either razed to the ground or re-occupied by Moshavnikim.
This is the truth.

2) A Jewish-Palestinian state could never be established.
During the 30s and 40s, the peaceful, Jew-befriending Palestinians were lead by the Nasheshibi clan - who were being murdered in their hundreds.
All this while the Jewish anti-Arab, protofascist Etzel movement was growing.

3) A good way to avoid all this would have been establishing the Jewish state in Uganda.
However, contrary to the belief of David bar Elias, I think that would have spawned an apartheid-like regime. Besides, the romanticism of establishing the Jewland in Israel was far too strong.
 
I don't think you could get all the Palestinians to stay, but you could get some of them. From what I've read, they left for several reasons... some were forced out, some fled the fighting... but a large number of them apparently left because the Mufti of Jerusalem told them that they should flee for now and when the Arab armies attacked the new state, Israel would be destroyed and the the Palestinians could return and loot former Jewish property. This was mostly in the area around Haifa, IIRC, and if we could somehow get these people to disregard the Mufti, you could at least get this group to stay....
 
The only way to get the Palestinians to stay is to rewrite the whole Arab mindset no later than the 1920s. The most likely result is that the Peel Commission's proposal is accepted by both sides, resulting in an Israel of roughly 1500 square miles and a Palestine of 8500 square miles being established in 1936 and learning to work together.

Or an Israel of 1500 square miles which collapses under several million refugees from Europe leaving the Palestinians to form a confederation as part of picking up the pieces.

Since so much of the mindset was the work of the Mufti of Jerusalem simply butterflying him away could result in major changes for the better.


I think Empror Mike better be careful about comments like 'Jewland' if he wants to remain on the board.
 
1) Saying the Palestinians "left" is a bit too suttle. They were banished, cast out. Persecuted. Their villages were either razed to the ground or re-occupied by Moshavnikim.
This is the truth.

No it is not, in certain areas the Palestinians were in fact asked to stay.

the romanticism of establishing the Jewland in Israel was far too strong.
Nice, no really.

But not even accurate, it is after all Israel because the Jews live there.

Also you must tell me what an empror is. Based on your post I would think it a typo from a man who cannot be bothered to check his spelling or facts, but perhaps it is a special word devised by a special person.
 
lol. I was just kidding.

There ain't nothing wrong with "Jewland". I think we're called "Judestan" in some parts of the world.

I am an Israeli Jew, if it makes it seem more appropriate.
 
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