Ottoman Empire survives WWI

An alternate history in which the Ottoman Empire survives...well, as far as is plausible:

August 1914: Recognizing the vital need to supply Russia, Winston Churchill allows the two Turkish battleships being constructed in England to sail to Istanbul, along with an embassy urging neutrality and promising territorial security to the Porte.

After the debacles at the frontiers and Tannenberg, all possibility of campaigns elsewhere are shelved. The Ottoman Empire, recognizing that it is between a rock and a hard place, declares neutrality.

Summer 1915: Italy enters the war on the Allied side, fighting a bloody stalemate in the Alps but tying up most of the Austrian troops not routed at Lemberg the previous fall. Although a German offensive throws the Russians out of Galicia, Austria is badly weakened.

Summer 1916: The main strength of the Germans withdrawn to fight the Battle of the Somme, the Russians roar back into Austrian-controlled territory, convincing Rumania to join them. The Central Powers bribe Bulgaria with Macedonia to join the war, and Rumania is caught between German and Bulgarian forces, surrendering before winter.

Desperate to rescue their Italian and Rumanian allies, the British and French offer Macedonia to Greece and all of Bulgaria to Turkey to open a southern front, sending 150,000 troops under Sir Ian Hamilton to Thrace to spearhead the force. Bulgaria, forces out of position, falters in February 1917.

Spring 1917: Germany, desperate to knock out Russia in order to reinforce the Southern Front, sends Lenin on a sealed train from Switzerland to Finland, where he begins organizing the Tsar's overthrow.

Summer 1917: The Russian Revolution frees up hundreds of thousands of German troops, who make their way south on the ruined Balkan railways to meet the advancing Allies. Large reinforcements, however, have allowed the Allies to overrun Bulgaria and, aided by the Royal Navy, threaten Rumania. Bucharest becomes known as the German Verdun as Ludendorff throws in everything he has to keep control of the Rumanian oil. By September, however, he admits defeat, with the Allies approaching Belgrade. British Marines land at Trieste, capturing it in conjunction with a naval bombarment.

On the Western Front, there is deadlock, as both sides are aware that that is the front on which ultimate victory will be decided.

October 1917: German sailors strike rather than sail out to meet the British fleet. As the Bolsheviks take over the new Soviet state, Prince Max of Baden moves to forestall a similar revolution in Germany. Rallying the Social Democrats and other moderate forces, he forces the Kaiser to depose Hindenburg and Ludendorff and request an armistice from the Allies.

With the specter of Bolshevism hanging over their heads, and facing war exhaustion plus the dangers of American entry into the war, Lloyd George, Clemenceau, and the Turkish general who came to power during the war, Mustafa Kemal, decide to take the victory they have rather than fight on to the bitter end.

Germany ends the war occupying northeast France, Belgium, the western Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic States, and Central Europe north of the Danube, except for Wallachia.

November 1918: The Peace of Versailles is concluded, staisyfing most parties except the people on the ground. Unenumbered by considerations of self-determination, the negotiators assign Dalmatia and Croatia to Italy, as well as the Alto Adige and Trieste, Macedonia to Greece, Bosnia as compensation to defeated Serbia, and Bulgaria to Turkey, which also recieves the Protectorates of Moldavia, Wallachia, and Transylvania. Czechoslovakia becomes an independent nation. Austria is detached from Hungary and attached to Germany, which in turn gives up its Western conquests plus all of Poland except Upper Posnania. Poland is reconstituted as the Eastern barrier to Russian ambition, consisting of Warsaw, Galicia, Lower Posnania, Lithuania, and Western Ukraine. Germany retains Latvia as a protectorate, while England takes Estonia. Germany is stripped of its Pacific territories, these being divided between France and Japan, but it retains its African empire. Germany is also forced to pay substantial but not crippling reparations to France and Belgium, and surrender half its High Seas Fleet to England for a nominal payment. The German people are extremely bitter after making peace with so much and retaining so little, but the thoroughly ineffectual Navy had few adherents and the addition of Austria made Max's boast that "We emerged from this war stronger than we began it" more than partly true.

In the intervening year, the war against the Bolsheviks had been prosecuted more or less desultorily. Turkey, badly in need of internal reform, had all it could do to hold onto its gains, while England had only the energy to keep a small force in Estonia and reinforce Finland. France was completely exhausted, and Germany sick of war. Only the small English/German forces in the Baltic, and an English/Turkish force in the Black Sea, were able to support the White generals (who were as suspicious of their Western benefactors as they were of the Reds). By 1920, the Bolsheviks controlled all of what was left of Russia.

America had threatened mobilization in early 1917 after the introduction of unrestricted submarine warfare, but the war had ended before anything substantial could be done. With the establishment of peace, the USA went back to sleep, as it were, hailing Woodrow Wilson as the President who had truly kept them out of war.

1920-23: The "Red Years" in Europe, as first Poland, then Hungary, then the Turkish Protectorates succumbed to Communist governments, but were all restored through economics and armed force.
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
The Ottomans won't want Bulgaria back - one can imagine they wouild want territorial adjustments on the borders and maybe even at a pinch the Bulgarian Thracian lands on the Aegean (populations can always be shifted around etc).

Macedonia to Greece is a problem as whats not Greek is SERBIAN, its why Bulgaria was so pissed off in the first place. OTL the Entente offered N Epirus to Greece (S Albania) and even allowed them to occupy it and have its delegates in the Greek parliament, only after the peace to renege on this and give it back to Albania

Grey Wolf
 
Ahh, Epirus. I'd forgotten entirely about Albania. Anything could happen there--Greece could get it, Italy could put up such a fuss that Albania remained independent and a cause of strife after the war...who knows?

Macedonia was owned by Serbia, but both Bulgaria and Greece had good claims on it. Since Serbia was beaten so badly and Bosnia is available, I figure the Allies would do what they did in OTL and screw over those of their allies who weren't effective (OTL Italy, ATL Serbia).

As to Turkey wanting Bulgaria, I'm not sure they wouldn't want it back. The Balkans were where all the Turkish infrastructure had been, and they'd only lost control entirely in 1913. Certainly they'd demand, and recieve, the protectorate for Bulgaria, and we all know how protectorates turned out in OTL.
 
The Turks had no irridentest ambitions at Bulgarian expense whatsoever. Their only interests in Europe were Western Thrace, controlled by Greece, and some Aegean Islands, also held by Greece.

The best way to induce them would be to return Cyprus to Ottoman administration, and perhaps some sort of arrangement in Egypt, which is still legally a part of the Ottoman Empire.

The other issue is that Bulgaria wouldn't even consider entering the war if the Ottomans and Greeks were both neutral and Entente-leaning. So, assuming things are not going well for the Entente, Ottoman entry would be weird, and likely involve an Entente-supplied army moving across the Balkans to rescue Serbia, which has got to be one of the most ironic possiblities imaginable.

Ottoman participation on the Entente side should notably shorten the war, as it allows easy support of Russia, the freeing up of about 2 million Entente troops, greatly reduces the pressure on Russia, and adds a large number of Ottoman troops to the Entente side.
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Er one tiny point John, if they wanted Western Thrace controlled by Greece it makes no sense not to be interested in the Bulgarian Thracian coastline

But other than that, lol

Grey Wolf
somewhat less narky
 
I'll admit to not knowing a great deal about the Bulgarian entry to the war, but it'd be possible that, given the unprepared nature of Turkey and the meat-grinder nature of the Western Front, they'd figure that their backs were secure (especially if, with no front against Turkey, the Allies weren't in Salonika). (Also, Turkey could have put on a real neutrality show, forbidding transit to anything remotely warlike through the Straits, which would have annoyed the Allies and encouraged the Central Powers).

The Turkish entry to the war could then be similar to the Greek OTL, in which the British and French sent troops to Salonika long before Greece officially entered the war, except that they'd be more able to break out of Eastern Thrace and would have host country troops as well.

Also, it's not clear that in late 1916 the Allies were losing particularly badly. Russia was being thrown back, but it was being thrown back to its own borders. Rumania was dead, but that was 400,000 soldiers. Serbia had been doomed from the start. The Battle of the Somme did end with German retreat, and approximately equal casualties. America was definitely Allies-leaning though unwilling to actually do anything. A pro-English coup against the Young Turks, plus significant economic aid from the Allies, could change the political spectrum. (The actual war entry would be tied to Cyprus and a lot of aid, as well as stepping into the Germans' shoes for all the projects they had been pushing).

I'll bow to superior knowledge about Turkish irridentism. Nevertheless, there would be a Bulgarian protectorate (the "Prussia of the Balkans" would need to be kept under tight control) and Turkey would be the logical choice. While it wouldn't be a colony, in strategic terms it'd be a place where Turkish troops were. (This is an important point only to connect the dots to Rumania and to extend the timeline further to the encounter with the Soviets).
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
God, what is Bulgaria DOING in this war ? It has twin over-riding aims - Macedonia and Constantinople, with the Dobruja as a tertiary aim. How is entering a war when it is isolated in the Southern Balkans going to advance any of these ? OTL it entered in conjunction with Mackensen's attack on Serbia and by invading the South contributed to Serbia's collapse, followed up by co-ordination with the German invasion of Rumania. Is either of these as likely in this scenario ? Consider that in order to commit to this, Bulgaria has to believe in advance that it can win. With a neutral Ottoman Empire they will be thinking more of the Second Balkan War when even the Ottomans got revenge re Adrianople. And without Gallipolli they have no nearby central powers example of a victory. Ferdinand was not known as Foxy Ferdy for nothing and would be looking for a realistic and at least sort of guaranteed return before committing, and in these circumstances no one can give it to him

Oddly enough I don't think it impossible for the war in these circumstances to spread to the Balkans and draw Bulgaria in, you just need a justification

Grey Wolf
 
Grey Wolf said:
God, what is Bulgaria DOING in this war ? It has twin over-riding aims - Macedonia and Constantinople, with the Dobruja as a tertiary aim. How is entering a war when it is isolated in the Southern Balkans going to advance any of these ?

Linking up with Austrian/German troops in the remains of Serbia and Rumania, so it's no longer isolated. This TL doesn't have a long courtship of Turkey like both TLs have of Italy, so Buglaria would be thinking of the defeated Turkey of the end of the Second Balkan War and figuring it has a perfect opportunity to acquire Macedonia and Dobruja now by siding with the Central Powers, and can consider Constantinople later.

Grey Wolf said:
OTL it entered in conjunction with Mackensen's attack on Serbia and by invading the South contributed to Serbia's collapse, followed up by co-ordination with the German invasion of Rumania. Is either of these as likely in this scenario ? Consider that in order to commit to this, Bulgaria has to believe in advance that it can win. With a neutral Ottoman Empire they will be thinking more of the Second Balkan War when even the Ottomans got revenge re Adrianople. And without Gallipolli they have no nearby central powers example of a victory.

They're fighting Serbia and Rumania, with the aid of Germany and Austria. Serbia's been at it for years and is not in good shape, and Rumania's the target of a large German offensive. Bulgaria's not going to figure on any of this taking long. And while they don't have any really nearby example, they have the precipitate Russian retreat from Galicia (again) to show that whenever the Germans actually concentrate on a battlefield, they win. They're hoping to get what they want by riding the coattails of the greatest Power in the world.

[
Grey Wolf said:
Ferdinand was not known as Foxy Ferdy for nothing and would be looking for a realistic and at least sort of guaranteed return before committing, and in these circumstances no one can give it to him

If the Ottoman Empire stays neutral, it's a very good gamble he's making. Almost identical to the one he made in OTL. I think it works if the Turkish entry is a surprise, which it would be if Turkey wasn't prepared for war. The real far-fetched idea is that Britain would agree to, and be able to plan, the slinging of an army from France to Turkey. I know the Anzacs came over in military organization--would it be possible to coordinate this with troops sailing from Asia for Egypt?
 
Grey Wolf said:
Er one tiny point John, if they wanted Western Thrace controlled by Greece it makes no sense not to be interested in the Bulgarian Thracian coastline

But other than that, lol

Grey Wolf
somewhat less narky

Western Thrace still had a large Turkish population. The Bulgarian Thracian coastline had been thoroughly ethnically cleansed, and in any case, friendly relations with Bulgaria were seen as a much more important interest than regaining any territory there - an allied Bulgaria meant safety for Istanbul and a barrier to Russian ambition. Greece was more or less irrelevant.
 
Actually, Constantinople had never been a central Bulgarian aim - but the overwhelming victories the Bulgarians scored in the First Balkan War made it seem suddenly possible, so Ferdinand went for it in an opportunistic grab. The general staff was dubious, and the Ottomans had had time to come up with a real plan, and they learned from their defeats, so the drive was halted. I don't think that Constantinople entered their calculations in WWI. It was always about Macedonia.

Historically, they fought hard for Macedonia, and one they had it, they more or less stopped participating in the war.
 
Abdul, what would have had to happen to create the following internal Turkish position:

1) Young Turks in power to some degree in 1914, but prevented from signing any alliance
2) Fairly swift pro-England coup in 1916 removing the Young Turks
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
God_of_Belac said:
Abdul, what would have had to happen to create the following internal Turkish position:

1) Young Turks in power to some degree in 1914, but prevented from signing any alliance
2) Fairly swift pro-England coup in 1916 removing the Young Turks

If Mehmed V, Reshad had died in 1916 (I don't think he was particuarly healthy) whilst Yusef Izzedin was still alive (and if you have 1) then he is anyway) then the new sultan is a much stronger personality with more defined ideas, and would probably back any moe to get rid of Enver, Talat and co.

To prevent the CUP signing any alliance in 1914 couldn't you boost the standing, or at least the political astuteness of the other the other member of the ruling group, who was anti-German...I've forgotten his name though. Was it something like David ?

Grey Wolf
 
Grey Wolf said:
If Mehmed V, Reshad had died in 1916 (I don't think he was particuarly healthy) whilst Yusef Izzedin was still alive (and if you have 1) then he is anyway) then the new sultan is a much stronger personality with more defined ideas, and would probably back any moe to get rid of Enver, Talat and co.

To prevent the CUP signing any alliance in 1914 couldn't you boost the standing, or at least the political astuteness of the other the other member of the ruling group, who was anti-German...I've forgotten his name though. Was it something like David ?

Grey Wolf

Agree with all your points above. Said Halim was Grand Vizier, and he was pro-Entente. Jamal Pasha was also pro-Entente, and Talat Pasha was neutral, although Enver eventually won him over. The government on the whole was neutralist, with a slight lean towards the Entente.
 
God_of_Belac said:
Abdul, what would have had to happen to create the following internal Turkish position:

1) Young Turks in power to some degree in 1914, but prevented from signing any alliance
2) Fairly swift pro-England coup in 1916 removing the Young Turks

Absent the war, there doesn't need to be a coup to remove the CUP; they could just lose an election. But Grey Wolf's scenario is quite workable; if Mehmed V Reshad died in 1916, Yusuf Izzeddin would have become Sultan, and he despised the Young Turks and would have dismissed them. As it was, he was planning to pull the empire out of the war.
 
I'd imagine that an election would be somewhat forecastable, while a Sultan's death could be swift.

So Bulgaria, confident that the Young Turks-led, militarily-unprepared Turkey won't bother them, enters the war to grab Macedonia with the aid of the victorious Germans. Then Mehmed dies, replaced by Yusuf Izzeddin, with whom the British have been intriguing. This confluence of events is joined by the arrival of ANZAC units in Egypt on their way to France (without a Mediterranean front, that would be the quicker way to get to France), who are redirected to Eastern Thrace, soon joined by troops sent from England and France, and suddenly there's a large Allied army in the Bulgarian rear, while Turkey mobilizes its own forces.
 
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