For Want Of A Sandwich - Franz Ferdinand lives TL

Welcome to this new project of mine, which I hope I will take up to an alternate present day, taking on a point of divergence that reached its hundredth anniversary this year: what if Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir apparent to the Austro-Hungarian throne, hadn't been assassinated in Sarajevo on June, 28 1914, throwing Europe into the cycle that would lead to World War One?

The name of the first part of the timeline, For Want Of A Sandwich, refers to the ridiculously random character of the assassination itself: unscathed from a previous bomb attack earlier in the day, the Archduke insisted to meet the victims of the attack in the hospital, and his escort took a wrong road; he stopped by a street where the assassin, Gavrilo Princip, was eating a sandwich in a café, having given up the whole operation, believing it to have failed.

In this TL, the driver takes another way and arrives at the hospital without a scratch, and Archduke Franz Ferdinand is able to make it safely out of Sarajevo.

This TL will draw on my own considerations about my own considerations in alternate history, here reported to the whole XXth Century, and be written both in English and French (although in English only for the readers of alternatehistory.com). One fan of Hearts of Iron II will be able to see influences to the Kaiserreich mod, to which I participated back in the day.

Since my President Ross Perot TL, I tried a cultural TL relying on cinema that I was forced to give up due to lack of time, and my development of a President Thomas Dewey TL went to a halt also. I hope I won't end this one and see what comes out! Thanks for your feedback and suggestions, they are totally needed.

Prologue -


Around 40 miles East of Salerno, Kingdom of Italy, April, 13 1938

If Captain Erwin Fussenegger expected one thing, during the Austrian and Italian armies retreat, it was certainly not a French landship column formation heading northwards on this road, towards the front. He easily spotted the identification on the landships ; his men were mesmerized by these newcomers.

The infantry captain managed to flag the head landship down, as it was stopped by the flow of refugees.

-Who’s there ? Captain Erwin Fussenegger, 502nd Infantry Company of His Imperial and Royal Highness of Austria, Hungary, Bohemia and Illyria’s Army.

-Colonel Charles De Gaulle, 37th Battle Landship Regiment of the French army, at your service, said the commander, a tall and thin man with drooping eyes.

-They didn’t tell me that Frenchmen were now ready to engage the Syndicalists, Colonel. You are now fighting against each other ?

-Not at all, Captain : the Italian government called us to rescue, we landed at Agrigento two weeks ago and here we are, ready to repel the invader. After all, these so-called proletarians drew us back to North Africa, and they just occupied Nice and Savoy, that remain French possessions.

-Ah, always the old reminescences of the war, I was too young back then, said the Captain, while lighting a cigarette. The things changed a lot during these ten years.

-You don’t say ?, quirked the Frenchman. I’m a man from Northern France, my father liked to define himself as a monarchist by regret and a republican by reason, and I now live in an Algiers slum, while the revolutionary hordes I’m about to engage with my landships are led by my own fellow countrymen. You, in Austria at least, are free from these problems.

-Well, certain people wouldn’t agree. Lesser evils than the Syndicalists, yes, but we’ve got the Hungarians, the Czechs, the Croats, the Romanians, the Serbs. The past emperor –God bless his soul- was too soft on them. It’s a fact. It costed us a lost, against the Russians.

Colonel De Gaulle smiled : -Ah, François-Ferdinand. We said a lot of awful stuff against him during the war, even if most of the French never saw one Austrian rifle. With his big mustache and his 10,000-odd assassination attempts.

-One almost worked, in 1914, in Sarajevo.

-In ?

-Sarajevo. A Bosnian city. A bomb blew off next to his party, he left without a scratch.

-A pity a bomb didn’t go off against these Jaurès, Pouget, Frossard and all this rabble… The Colonel sighed. « Well. You can’t undo history. Until then these flows of refugees will continue, for Heaven’s sake ?

-They go by numbers since the fall of Rome. Southwards, towards Sicily. To go to Sardinia and North Africa, like you did ten years ago.

The colonel couldn’t hide a grin. –Like Spaniards and Portuguese before. Like Belgians soon. Like Germans, Brits and Austrians later…

-God helps us. You will see, Germans will soon be back, English will brace themselves and soon, the Syndicalist hydra will be broken.

The refugee flow had just went. Colonel De Gaulle shouted some orders and the column was ready to go. He leaned over to shake the hand of the Austrian officer.

-Farewell, Capitain. Strange to see that a French and an Austrian finally managed to have a conversation, without slaying each other, so soon after the Great War.

-That’s maybe what the war and the syndicalism gave us, Colonel. Courage and may God’s love be with you.

Captain Fussenegger looked at the French landships as they disappeared towards the horizon, with a strong heart regarding to their incredible bravery, as anachronistic as it looked, in this blood-soaked 1938.

Hello Masked Pickle, it's good to see you pumping out new stuff.

While I wish you would complete the Giant Sucking Sound, I understand that it is your story and you can do as you please.

Humanity is an interesting creature: one man can completely alter the world. Cracked said it best in this article http://www.cracked.com/article_17298_6-random-coincidences-that-created-modern-world.html, since Gavrillo's actions basically created the 20th century as we know it.

I like that even though Gavrillo's world-changing act could have been avoided, a continental war in Europe was still unavoidable.

The irony is that Archduke Ferdinand was one of the most liberal members of the Hapsburg family, and sought to increase the autonomy of Southern Slavs. But in your story, you argue that Ferdinand's pro-Slav attitude still wouldn't have stopped the collapse of Austria-Hungary. This will be wild ride, and know I'll be reading every step.

I can't wait til when you've updated enxt.

Chapter One: The Austro-Hungarian question

Sors-moi d’ici, Jaurès, 2004​

Even before his accession to the Austro-Hungarian throne, then Archduke Franz Ferdinand had plenty of issues to deal with. First, he was not at all the first heir presumptive to the aging and broken Franz Joseph : it was only after the apparent suicide of his cousin Rudolph in 1889 and his father Karl Ludwig in 1896 that he became so. He disagreed with his Imperial grand-uncle on most issues, including the annexation of Bosnia Herzegovina in 1908 or the relations with the other nationalities of the Dual Monarchy, including the favors given to the Hungarians, whom he saw as dangers to the prestige of the Habsburgs. But even more, his happy betrothal and marriage with Countess Sophie Chotek infuriated Franz Joseph, who forced his own heir to consider his marriage as morganatic and refuse their three children any rights to the throne. Thanks to the stability of the Habsburg dynasty, Franz Ferdinand’s nephew Karl was ready to take up the mantle if he was to meet his end earlier.
And it almost happened : on July, 28 1914, while the heir presumptive was visiting the Sarajevo, the main city of the disputed region of Bosnia, his carriage was attacked by a Bosnian Serb nationalist, Nedeljko Cabrinovic. The 19-year-old terrorist threw a bomb at the Imperial motorcade, which bounced off the folded back convertible cover into the street, exploding under the next car, wounding 16 to 20 people. The Archduke and his wife were unharmed. Cabrinovic tried to commit suicide to swallowing a cyanide pill and jumping into the Miljacka river ; he failed, the river being far from deep and the pill making him vomit.
The Archduke decided to visit the wounded at the Sarajevo hospital, against the wishes of his aides. To avoid the city center and provide better security to the Archduke, the Governor, Oskar Potiorek, decided of a new route for the Imperial motorcade ; as Potiorek’s aide was at the hospital, he asked the Chief of Police, Edmund Gerde, to notify Franz Ferdinand’s driver of the new directions, something Gerde did. The Archduke went safely to the hospital and exited from Sarajevo on July, 29, not after protesting the assassination attempt at his person and after the city had been searched by the Austro-Hungarian garrisson, arresting Cabrinovic and three of his accomplices, two other Serbs and one Croat, all committed to the cause of unification of the South Slavic peoples under Serbia.
During their trials, it was found that Cabrinovic and his accomplices were all very young, so ineligible to death penalty, thus condemning them to life imprisonment. Austro-Hungarian investigators tried to establish a link between the would-be assassins and Serbian intelligence, reportedly at the request of the Emperor himself ; Franz Ferdinand pushed not to press the investigations, fearing that it would develop in a casus belli against Serbia and further weakening the cohesion of the already fledging Austro-Hungarian empire.
Terrorism remained prevalent in Bosnia during the last years of Franz Joseph’s reign : Governor Oskar Potiorek would be assassinated on December, 17 1915 by Gavrilo Princip, another Serb who was found to have been part of the Sarajevo assassins in 1914. But as of Franz Ferdinand, nothing much happened to him until he succeeded on November, 21 1916 to Franz Joseph as Emperor Ferdinand II of Austria and King Ferdinand VI of Hungary.

The new King-Emperor had new plans for his new demesne : an ardent believer in the strength of the dynasty and alliance with Germany, he remained stern on Austrian control of the military (keeping Chief of the General Staff Franz Conrad von Hötzendorf while he changed all of his grand-uncle’s cabinet), but pressed for a better presence of Austria-Hungary internationally and a new model for the Dual Monarchy. Ferdinand II and VI had in mind greater autonomy for the various ethnic groups of Austria-Hungary (Austrians, Hungarians, Czechs, Croats, Slovaks, Bosnians, Serbs, Romanians, Italians, Poles, Ukrainians, etc.), in order to strengthen the stability of the Habsburg Empire, weaken the over-reaching power of the Hungarians and, paradoxically, put Vienna back at the center of all decisions.
Ferdinand II and VI decided that the new negotiations of the Ausgleich (the Compromise, the name given to the dispositions that laid the foundations of the Dual Monarchy) were to take place on April 1917 in Pressburg Castle.
He thought it would last only a few weeks : the negotiations lasted for five months before an agreement was found. In fact, the main points raised during the debate were these :

-Austria refused to give up the German-speaking parts of Bohemia.
-Bohemia was asking for recognition and even becoming the third Crown of the Habsburg Empire.
-Croatia wanted to also become the third Kingdom, freeing itself from the control of Hungary, gaining Dalmatia (under Austrian control) and Bosnia, which was under Austro-Hungarian condominium.
-Bosnia wanted autonomy, independance or the maintaining of the status quo, with the Croatian, Bosnian and Serbian ethnies not agreeing, and the Catholic, Orthodox or Muslim parts either.
-Galicia and Lodomeria wanted autonomy.
-Slovaks and Romanians wanted autonomy from the Hungarians whom, they said, pursued an agressive Magyarization policy.
-Hungary refused to give up on anything on their territory, including with Croatia that provided it with an access to the sea, or even not to become the only equals to the Austrians.

The treaty of Pressburg on September, 24 1917 gave birth to a Trial Monarchy, although not the one Ferdinand had expected :

-The Austrian Empire retained its territories.
-Galicia-Lodomeria gained more autonomy.
-A Kingdom of Bohemia was established, with the King-Emperor taking the name of Ferdinand VI : it comprised the former Kingdom of Bohemia (minus the German-speaking parts in Bohemia and Silesia, directly annexed to the Austrian Empire) and the Margraviate of Moravia. Bohemians were to become an integrant part of Austria-Hungary-Bohemia, with Karel Kramar as its first Minister-President.
-Croatia was reunited with Slavonia and gained Bosnia, yet Dalmatia remained under control of Austria and, furthermore, remained under the authority of Hungary, who refused to give up an inch on the question. The Croats agreed, hoping to state their case in 1927, and with the assurance that they could implement their Catholic policies in Bosnia.
-Hungary, led by Itzvan Tisza, managed not to give up and, by the way, gained even more authority by having a Greater Croatia under their control.

Ferdinand II and VI took notice of these developments, even if they meant a still strong Hungary and the South Slavic question still not solved. The 52-years-old then turned to another of his thoughts : the modernization of the Austro-Hungarian-Bohemian army and its international standing…

Powder Keg - A short history of the Austrian Empire 1867-1953, coll., New York University, 1994

***

NEW BOOK REVEALS SERBIAN TIES TO 1914 FERDINAND II PLOT

This week, Dr. Georg Mihailovic, an Illyrian historian concentrated on the history of the Balkans, publishes a book on his findings in the archives of Serbian intelligence, conducted mostly in Belgrad. He confirms a long-standing rumor in Danubian history : Serbian intelligence had commandited a failed assassination plot against Emperor Ferdinand II of Austria-Bohemia-Hungary, in 1914 in Sarajevo.
Then heir presumptive to the throne, the future Emperor escaped a bomb attack from Bosnian Serb nationalists, who were protesting then Austro-Hungarian holding in the region. According to Dr. Mihailovic, it’s now clear that the would-be assassins were helped by Colonel Dragutin Dimitrijevic, then head of Serbian intelligence, and maybe the Russian ambassador in Serbia of that time. (…)
The Serbian Republic refused to give any credit to the publishings, calling them « propaganda from the Hohenburg Conglomerate ».
-The Times, January, 11 1967

bookmark95 - Thanks for the reply; I dearly encourage other readers to help with their feedback. Let's say that even if this TL will take back a few ideas not so original, I plan to have my own views about this altered XXth Century.

Subbed! Give me moar!

Croatia already had Slavonia under the terms of the first Austro-Hungarian agreement. And on the coast Hungary only had some power over the city of Rijeka and its immediate surroundings; everything else in Dalmatia was wholly under Vienna's control.

This is really is the still point of that century, almost mythical - such a random thing, random meeting at a street corner. And so random that it doesn't really feel right to invest such huge, still unfolding meaning to such a small moment. But what else can we think?

Yes, there could have been a continental war in any case (though we cannot be sure about that), but it would most likely not have happened during 1914 and even a year or half a year later many things would have changed, maybe a civil war in Ireland accompanied with great instability in the UK politics, maybe serious labour unrest in several continental countries (and Britain) - and who knows what else?

It will really rather effectively reveal one's view of history to map out what would have changed if Franz Ferdinand had survived. Tolstoi would have said that nothing significant would have changed. I think lots would have changed. But neither view can be verified...

Chapter Two: The Mexican Revolution


« …The fall of Victoriano Huerta and the American occupation of Mexico did nothing to stop the Mexican Revolution, on the contrary. The dissensions between newly installed President Venustiano Carranza, who was in favor of ending the revolutionnary bloodshed and implement most of the reformist agenda, and rebels leaders Emiliano Zapata and Pancho Villa, who asked for greater upheavals and agarian reform, soon proved impossible to heal. The two leaders, the first in the Native-majority South, the other near the northern American border, made some sort of uneasy alliance to remove Carranza and his Constitutionnalists. Mexico felt in December 1914, but Pancho Villa’s harsh occupation went uneasy with the inhabitants of the capital, who forced him to withdraw in early 1915… »
-Complete Idiot’s Guide to Mexico

« I forgive he who kills or steals, because he sometimes does it out of necessity, but I never forgive a traitor. »
-Quotes from Mexican President Emiliano Zapata, Editions de l’Internationale, Paris, 1935

« …The death of General Alvaro Obregon at the second battle of Celaya in April 1915 was a setback to the Constitutionnalists : a skilled tactician in spite of not having attended military school, Obregon had managed to win the first engagement against Villa’s forces ; his death from a shell in the early stages of the second battle helped Villist troops to withdraw in good order and without suffering a crushing defeat. Celaya thus became an example of Pyrrhic victory for the Constitutionnalists, who lost a great commander and a chance to crush the Villist general staff… »
History of the Mexican Revolution, Arturo Villaraigosa, McGraw-Hill, Los Angeles, 1998

« The German Foreign Office, under Gottlieb von Jagow and his successor after 1916, Arthur Zimmermann, had been bent on triggering a conflict between the United States and Mexico : under the Prussian perspective on America, the United States were considering Mexico as their colony and their back alley and were ready to take any opportunity to intervene ; furthermore, a war on their southern border would divert American resources from trade competition and attention at the would-be European war, a hot issue during the 1910s. Later historians would look at German involvement in Latin America as the « Maximilian Doctrine », christened from the Austrian Archduke imposed as Emperor of Mexico by Napoleon III, who had taken advantage of the Civil War to try to carve a Latin Catholic empire in America.
German Mausers were a common sight in revolutionary Mexico, not due to German involvement as it was said in the United States, but due to their success as a modern and easy-to-handle weapon. Germany first tried to influence and to fund the Huerta regime, even supporting it when the dictator was overthrown by the revolutionnaries, but the Foreign Office began to send military advisors and weapons to the Constitutionnalist army, starting in 1915, hoping to tilt the balance in the ongoing civil war. (…)
President Woodrow Wilson, facing an uphill battle in the polls against Senator John W. Weeks in 1916, knew of German involvement in Mexico but refused to publicly condemn it, fearing a backlash from the politically powerful German American community. Instead, the State Department turned also to secret dealings with Pancho Villa, agreeing to secretly supply its forces. In exchange, Pancho Villa would renounce his raids on the other side of the border, providing him with extra forces in the struggle against Carranza. The Mexican Revolution has turned to a proxy war between Germany and America. »
Enemy Mine, A History of German-American Relations 1871-1984, Arthur M. Schleslinger, Jr., Mc-Graw-Hill, New York, 1984


« I want to die a slave to principles. Not to men. »
-Quotes from Mexican President Emiliano Zapata, Editions de l’Internationale, Paris, 1935


« The situation for the Constitutionnalists went to shambles from 1915 to 1917, failing to find a compromise about the new Constitution between the various factions, failing to make a breakthrough against both Villa and Zapata’s forces in spite of German help and not gaining American recognition. German advisors decided to push forward General Plutarco Elias Calles for a coup d’Etat against President Venustiano Carranza ; Calles’ troops seized the presidential palace in Mexico City on May, 21 1917, killing President Carranza. Yet the move backfired, as the once united Constitutionnalist faction split into many more factions opposed to Calles’, soon forced to withdraw from Mexico, to the advantage of revolutionary groups… »
History of the Mexican Revolution, Arturo Villaraigosa, McGraw-Hill, Los Angeles, 1998

« In response to Pancho Villa’s entry into Mexico and Puebla on September 1918, President Woodrow Wilson, with the approval of Congress, decided to have General Leonard Wood’s troops enter Mexican territory in Lower California and Sonora, in order « to protect American foreigners and interests in war-torn Mexico ». What was later decried as « Wilson’s folly » and a « neo-colonial gesture » was more a way for the United States to apply pressure on the winning faction in Mexico, precisely Zapata and Villa’s followers, so they don’t turn too harshly against American interests in Mexico. Having the mines from Northwestern Mexico seized would prove a definite asset against the new regime south of the Rio Grande, deciding the revolutionary leaders to turn towards more moderate figures in the first time, than Zapata and Villa, viewed as « rebel rabble » by the State Department… »
History of the Mexican Revolution, Arturo Villaraigosa, McGraw-Hill, Los Angeles, 1998

« Ignorance and obscurantism have never produced anything other than flocks of slaves for tyranny. »
-Quotes from Mexican President Emiliano Zapata, Editions de l’Internationale, Paris, 1935


« …The final defeat of Carranzista forces near Chilpancingo on February, 5 1919 put an effective end to the civil war in Mexico, with the civilian-led Frente Revolucionario, an uneasy yet firm alliance of Villistas, Zapatistas, exiles and liberals, taking power in Mexico, namely under the presidency of Felipe Angeles, a former Villist general, a skilled tactician who had left Mexico due to irreconciable differences with Villa, before returning as an acceptable office-holder for the Mexican presidency.
Forces within the United States government and Congress pushed for the support of a Mexican government-in-exile, led by fleeing President Calles, yet the capture of German military advisors by Zapatista forces at Chilpancingo proved a major embarassment for the lame duck Wilson administration, soon accused of having been soft on European interference in America, due to the recent events in Haiti and Honduras ; the possibility of an American intervention in Mexico, further than the occupation of Low California and Sonora. The death from a stroke of President Wilson on October, 2 1919 (helped, some said, by the strain from German advisers’ scandal and the dealing with the Pacific Flu) pushed newly installed President Thomas R. Marshall to soften US stance on Mexico, and to open negotiations with the Revolutionary Front.
Soon followed by a President Calles going into exile in Berlin, the returned German advisors included then Consul in Mexico and future Reichskanzler Franz von Papen, future Nobel Prize in Literature Ernst Jünger and Ernst Röhm, a man who would later become famous in famous circumstances… »
History of the Mexican Revolution, Arturo Villaraigosa, McGraw-Hill, Los Angeles, 1998

« I would better die on my feet than live on my knees. »
-Quotes from Mexican President Emiliano Zapata, Editions de l’Internationale, Paris, 1935


« The Treaty of Albuquerque, on March, 29 1920, was signed by Secretary of State Robert Lansing for the United States and President Felipe Angeles for Mexico, with the most prominent men in Mexico, Governor of Chiapas Emiliano Zapata and Commander-in-Chief Field Marshal Pancho Villa attending. The treaty acknowledged the Angeles government as the legitimate government in Mexico, upheld American interests and possessions in Mexico, loaned money to help for the reconstruction of Mexico, and the annexation of Low California and Sonora as United States territories, becoming respectively the 50th and the 52nd states in 1956 and 1974 respectively. It put an end to the Mexican Revolution. »
-Omnipedia

« Land and liberty ! »
-Quotes from Mexican President Emiliano Zapata, Editions de l’Internationale, Paris, 1935

***

ROMNEY FACES AN UPHILL BATTLE FOR RE-ELECTION IN SONORA
Senator Scott Romney (R-SO) had been a shoe-in for the Republican nomination in 2000, with the chance of becoming the first Mormon presidential nominee, along with the first nominee hailing from the Mexican states annexed in 1920, but Governor Manny Beltrones Silva (D-SO) has proved quite a match in his battle for re-election in his home state of Sonora, seriously damaging his chances for the Grand Old Party's nomination; furthermore, his campaign has a taste of the old rhyme in Hermosillo politics: the battle between American settlers and Mexican natives, assimilated or not.
Elected in 1994, a member of the Libertarian wing of the Republican party, Scott Romney had a career in the motor business before entering politics, succeeding his father, businessman George W. Romney, former CEO of General Motors, a Mormon born in Chihuahua before the Mexican Civil War and re-settled in Sonora after the Treaty of Albuquerque.
-The Washington Post, April, 11 2000

Thanks for the comments, everyone!

Interesting: so Pancho Villa goes from American menace to grudging America ally due to a revelation about Calle taking German arms. And what butterflies allowed for the annexation of Baja California and Sonora? And does the greater representation of Hispanics that eventually occurs mean that Puerto Rico will become a state?

Does this mean we will see the presidency of Quentin Roosevelt?

bookmark95 said:

Interesting: so Pancho Villa goes from American menace to grudging America ally due to a revelation about Calle taking German arms. And what butterflies allowed for the annexation of Baja California and Sonora? And does the greater representation of Hispanics that eventually occurs mean that Puerto Rico will become a state?

Click to expand...

Well, one could refuse to suspend their disbelief from this point, but behind that, I wanted to have a successful Mexican Revolution with the early death of Alvaro Obregon and a proxy war between Hands-free Germany and America. Here, a weak Marshall Administration accepts the principle of a revolutionary Mexico with territorial gains and to uphold the Monroe doctrine.

As of the changes in America: wait and see.

Big fan of your previous TL here. Looks very interesting. Look forward to seeing more.

Great to see you writing again, MaskedPickle! I admire your bravery in tackling perhaps the defining pinpoint POD in all of alternate history. I also admire your epic scope, jumping across the various decades and showing us how dramatically the world has changed - and how it has paralleled OTL, where appropriate. Consider me subscribed!

Chapter Three: The Balkan Wars


« The General lighted his pipe, then began to moan about this forsaken battlefield. The same old lesson of geopolitics he had been dwelling for months.

-Albania was then an anomaly in the turmoil of the Balkan Wars, peaceful in 1913 yet ripe for trouble. The Balkanic powers had decided to strip the Ottomans for their last chunk of Europe, fighting each other for its share. The Great Powers, in spite of the fact that they didn’t understood anything to anything south of the Danube, wanted to impose some control on the situation. So they put on the so-called Albanian throne a German prince, Wilhelm von Wied. He arrived in his so-called princedom to see that there were other princes, eager to revolt for their own independance and power. Adding to that the Greeks who wanted to annex Northern Epirus, the Serbians who were after northern Albania, and the Italians who believed they were the new Venetians. It all made up for a good war. »
-After the Earthquake, Ismail Kadare (Nobel Prize of Literature 1993)

The Third Balkan War was a conflict centered in Albania between Italy, Greece, and the Serbian-Montenegrin alliance, that began on October, 30 1914 and lasted until March, 3 1915. Albania had become an independant princedom under the Treaty of London on May 1913, yet the installation of Prince Skanderbeg II was short-lived, due to the revolt of Essat Pasha Toptani, helped by Italy, who forced the sovereign out of the country. October 1914 saw the building of tensions in the small country, with the arrival of Greek troops in Northern Epirus and Serbians in Northern Albania, prompting Italy to invade on October, 30 1914.

The conflict went quickly to a war of attrition between the three belligerants, due to the mountainous and harsh landscapes of Albania, and didn’t prompted an immediate interest of the Great Powers, in spite of the presence of Italy, then a member of the Triple Alliance, within the conflict.

The invasion of Rhodes by the Greek army and the emotion created by the Arrezano earthquake in January 1915 prompted Italy to call in their Austro-Hungarian ally, who in response reinforced their positions in Bosnia, prompting Serbia, Montenegro, Greece and Italy to meet in Bucharest to discuss peace proposals. The Treaty of Bucharest re-established Skanderbeg II (Wilhelm von Wied) as the Prince of Albania ; Serbia received small territories in northern Albania and received a significant right of interference within the Principality, a right that would allow them to intervene against the 1918 revolt of Essat Pasha Toptani ; Italy, exhausted from the war, received numerous military bases, including a naval one in Durazzo (Dürres), the capital of Albania ; Greece would receive Northern Epirus. The latter two belligerants would go back to war on April, 6, in the Rhodes War, due to the refusal of Greece to withdraw from the Dodecanese archipelago.

The Third Balkan War and the Rhodes War are considered by historians to be among the chief reasons for the withdrawal in 1916 from the Triple Alliance, Germany and Austria-Hungary-Bohemia having grown weary of Italian belligerance and poor warfare performances, both hazardous to the fragile equilibrium in Europe before the First Great War and the balance of forces between the alliance systems.
-Omnipedia article for « Third Balkan War (1914-1915) »

The Fourth Balkan War lasted from July, 17 1916 to October, 27 1918 between Serbia on one side and Bulgaria and the Ottoman Empire on the other, and was centered on Macedonia, a region contested between Serbia and Bulgaria since the Second Balkan War. The war quickly turned to a war of attrition in the Macedonian mountains, without any side clearly taking advantage.

It remains famous for the Treaty of Odessa, an example of dynastic diplomacy in the Twentieth Century : Czar Nikolai II of Russia oversaw the peace negotiations between the two powers, succesfully isolating the Ottomans ; the peace talks, which transformed Macedonia into a Serbian-Bulgarian condominium, also saw the marriage of Crown Prince and Regent Alexandr of Serbia to the Czar’s daughter, Grand Duchess Tatiana Nikolaevna, and the engagement of Crown Prince Boris of Bulgaria to Princess Marina Petrovna, a cousin to the Czar (an engagement that would be broken off one year later, in favor of Helene of Greece). These dynastic alliances soon proved to be military ones, with Serbia formally allying with Russia in 1920 and Bulgaria breaking its defensive alliance with the Ottoman Empire in 1919, beginning to strengthen its ties with Russia and making amends with Serbia and Greece…
-« Fourth Balkan War » entry for the Encyclopedia of the Twentieth Century

The Fifth Balkan War, also known as the Dobruja War, was a conflict between Bulgaria and Romania centered on the Dobruja region, that lasted from April, 11 1919 to June, 27 1919, resulting in a quick victory by the Bulgarian army and the annexation of southern Dobruja to Bulgaria. The war is celebrated as a renewal in strength and pride for Bulgaria since the defeat in the Second Balkan War and the draw in the Fourth, and also for its modern uses of aviation and of relatively new landships, roughly six years since the development of armored vehicles in Austria-Hungary-Bohemia.
-Omnipedia article for « Dobruja War (1919) »

In 1920, the five Balkan Wars had changed the diplomatic map of southern Europe for good, a diplomacy helped, as a small anachronism, by their kings :

-Austria-Hungary-Bohemia was still a member of the Alliance, was still worried about the influences of Russia, Romania and Serbia on its borders, but had managed to expel the troublesome Italy from the Alliance ;

-Italy, feeling humiliated from its pyrrhic victories in Albania and Rhodes, was looking forward to a new opportunity and maintained its links with Germany, hoping to gain more in Greece and the Adriatic;

-Serbia had established itself as a major power in the Balkans, effectively puppetizing Montenegro and Albania, maintaining order in the latter, the future King Alexandr II of Serbia marrying a Russian Grand-Duchess, reconciliating with Bulgaria over Macedonia and signing a defensive alliance with Russia in 1920 to keep Austria in check ;

-Greece had managed to defeat a major power in 1915 (Italy) and continued to build up its navy in order to undertake the Ottoman army, and had signed an alliance with Russia in 1918 ;

-Bulgaria had restored its pride by gaining some control over Macedonia and taking Southern Dobruja, and was leaning towards Russia and its past foes, Serbia and Greece, and was hoping to seize Constantinople ;

-The Ottoamn Empire, still struggling with reforms and pressures, had succesfully applied for German alliance in 1919 ;

-Romania, humiliated by its defeat against Bulgaria, feeling threatened by a massive Russia and a resurgent Bulgaria on its borders, was going back to its Hohenzollern roots ;

-Russia, also going through hard times internally, had externally managed to restore some order in the Balkans.

Everything was in place to make the Balkans a major theatre of the ever closer European War…
-The Road to the Great War, Newton McPherson, 1994

Map of the alliance systems in the Balkans in 1920.

(And the Dodecanese still belongs to Italy. Thanks to the typo. Duh)

Sorry but Regia Marina will see the Greece Navy and will say: Nice...target practice, better be quick or we will be late to dinner.

Plus no italian goverment will accept to be humiliated by a second rate power like Greece, this is not WWII when Benny basically ordered the invasion of Greece while fighting a war against one of the biggest kid on the block and very out of his league...no here Italy can devolve almost all his attention to the troublesome neighbourough.

It will be costly? Sure but totally in Italy capacity to basically obliterate Greece...plus Rome will never ask help from Vienna due to various factor, the principal is that people in the Hapsburg court will have a seizure at the mere thought of Italy or Serbia having control of Albania.
Athens attempt to take Rhodes even if succesfull will be answered with a landing on Corfù, the blockade of Rhodes by Regia Marina...and the Greecks be forced to buy a new fleet.

lukedalton said:

Sorry but Regia Marina will see the Greece Navy and will say: Nice...target practice, better be quick or we will be late to dinner.

Plus no italian goverment will accept to be humiliated by a second rate power like Greece, this is not WWII when Benny basically ordered the invasion of Greece while fighting a war against one of the biggest kid on the block and very out of his league...no here Italy can devolve almost all his attention to the troublesome neighbourough.

It will be costly? Sure but totally in Italy capacity to basically obliterate Greece...plus Rome will never ask help from Vienna due to various factor, the principal is that people in the Hapsburg court will have a seizure at the mere thought of Italy or Serbia having control of Albania.
Athens attempt to take Rhodes even if succesfull will be answered with a landing on Corfù, the blockade of Rhodes by Regia Marina...and the Greecks be forced to buy a new fleet.

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Well, I assumed that even if it would not be a disaster of Russo-Japanese War proportions, it would quickly be a stalemate war between a poor army that managed to get his ass beaten by the Ethiopians, to have trouble to handle Libya and, in the same era, got bogged down in the Alps by the Austrians, versus an experienced field army that proved its worth in the Balkans. So, well, the Greek Navy is no match to the Regia Marina, there are certainly a few fights around Corfu and Rhodes but it becomes a statu quo ante.

Also, Austria-Hungary would only help in the Albanian crisis to avoid further fuss in the region and Serbia to get too big, and get this as an opportunity to off the Italians, always the poor member of the Triplice.

Well, I assumed that even if it would not be a disaster of Russo-Japanese War proportions, it would quickly be a stalemate war between a poor army that managed to get his ass beaten by the Ethiopians,

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Ethiopia was a combination of being at the extreme range of the logistic chain of Italy and lack of political will...it's not that Italy was uncapable of still fight in Africa, it's just that without the political will and Crispi at the helm the rest of the population and the goverment will not want to spend any precious treasure in a idiot endevour.
Here the situation is different, not only Italy fight in his neighbourg but being challenged by Greece is a too much humiliation for Rome, Italy will fight on...and Athens can fight a prolonged war

have trouble to handle Libya

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Not counting the German and Ottoman help at the time Italy was occupied with something of much more important aka WWI; Cadorna clearly stated that he don't give a damn about Libya
Sure the Austrian bogged us down...unfortanely due to the terrain involved if the British, the French or the Germans have being in our place, the result will be more or less the same, so as example is not very good.
Sorry but Greece and Italy are in different league and much of the problem the italians suffered in the previous example here don't exist

So, well, the Greek Navy is no match to the Regia Marina, there are certainly a few fights around Corfu and Rhodes but it becomes a statu quo ante.

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No, it simply that Regia Marina will basically obliterate everything that the Greecks will send to them...and honestly without that much problem.
Corfù? It will probably be lost in the first day of the war...as Benny had done in the 20's
Rhodes? Sure they can take it if they are quick enough...unfortanely the garrison troops are now for any purpose Pow as they can't leave the place due to the italian blockade.
Basically it's like a fight between the US Navy and the Iranian ones, sure they can score some hit...but the endgame is never doubted

Also, Austria-Hungary would only help in the Albanian crisis to avoid further fuss in the region and Serbia to get too big, and get this as an opportunity to off the Italians, always the poor member of the Triplice.

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The Austrian want Albania for them due to her strategic position, if Belgrade try to launch an invasion Conrad (or whatever had his place) will make jump of joy as now finally had an excuse to launch is invasion.
Anybody in Vienna will fume at the though that Italy has a base on Durazzo and will see this as a defeat.
Finally...Berlin have never given a damn about Austrian desire to throw out Italy from the Alliance, plus doing in that manner basically change all their strategic stance and frankly is not that the relationships between the two nations are perfect.
If anybody in Vienna propose that the Kaiser (or better the chancellor) will think that they will consider it just to discard the thought after some second.
Frankly is more credible that Greece will have his ass kicked, lost his fleet and being basically defeated and the results you have declared is more a political result due to Germany and A-h meddling (making Rome decide to leave the Alliance...as Vienna hoped)