April Showers, May Flowers, June Days, and July Haze : the World from 1815

April Showers bring May Flowers for June Days and the July Haze



Chapter One : The Congress of Vienna

“Whenever Paris sneezes, Europe catches a cold”

The Congress of Vienna was supposed to assure the forces of reaction a permanent victory. It did not. Even as the Congress of Vienna redraw the boundaries of Europe and parceled out territory the ideals of the French revolution were planted like seeds, waiting to sprout across Europe. However it takes seeds many years to flower, and for the time it seemed that the dreams of the French revolutionaries were dead. These ideas may have remained dead if the Congress of Vienna had not been so intent on dividing the spoils. All of the participants were concerned just as much for the gains of the victors to be moderated as for France to be punished. The results of the Congress of Vienna which redrew the boundaries of Europe were, like any good compromise, unsatisfactory to all. From this dissatisfaction of the Congress by each participant the seeds for Europe’s ills for a century were buried wherein the weeds of revolution would occasionally sprout.

It seems strange that such an important and momentous conference could be decided by so few people. However here, probably more than most other circumstances, the personalities, designs, and the philosophies of the men here who negotiated and schemed would shape millions of lives.



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Tsar Alexander I was the chief representative of the Russian delegation and the only head of state to directly participate.



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Johann Philipp Stadion, Count von Warthausen, better known simply as Warthausen, was the surprisingly liberal yet machiavellian predecessor and successor to Metternich who represented Austria at the Congress after his abrupt resurgence due to Metternich's untimely death.



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Europe 1815 after the Congress of Vienna. The various provisions of the Congress of Vienna are as follows:

Regarding Poland:

The Grand Duchy of Warsaw was reformed into the newly constituted Confederation of Poland.

The Confederation of Poland’s monarch must be approved by Russia, Prussia, and Austria.

The first King of the Confederation of Poland would be the Russian Tsar Alexander I, who would rule over Poland in a personal union with Russia.

The Northeastern territories of the Confederation of Poland would be seceded to Russia.

The city of Danzig would be annexed by Prussia.

The western territory of Poznan / Posen would be under the nominal rule of the Polish Confederation but administered by Prussia and Prussia would have a slate of exclusive economic rights and the privilege of stationing troops in the Posen region.



The Polish question (intertwined with the Saxon one) was key to the Congress of Vienna. Russia desired to annex the entire state and was only prevented from doing so for fear of Russian power by the other participants. The agreed compromise particularly angered Austria as it put a (theoretically) independent Poland in direct conflict with Austria over desired territories, but it was an issue which Warthausen simply made no progress on. As attempt to appease Austria somewhat and, according to Britain’s logic make Poland less valuable for whoever ruled it, was the decentralization of power. Later there would be a conscious attempt to foster discord between the magnates of Krakow and Warsaw and foster discord by and the Confederation’s structure was intentionally inefficient.

Saxony had been a key object of Prussian ambition since Frederick the Great, and at Vienna it was finally realized. Strengthening Prussia by giving it Saxony was seen as optimal. While Metternich had been against such a move by Prussia, Warthausen reasoned that Prussia’s annexation of Saxony would be seen as a move which would garner Prussia a lot of power and thus give Austria a free hand elsewhere (such as in Italy).

Regarding Germany:

Swiss neutrality was permanently guaranteed.

Prussia was to annex Saxony.

Westphalia was to be reformed as a to compensate the displaced monarchs of Saxony.

A German Confederation of 40 states was created from the previous 360 of the Holy Roman Empire, under the presidency of the Austrian Emperor. Only portions of the territory of Austria (Austria proper, Bohemia, and Moravia) were included in the Confederation.

To correspond with the German Confederation a new Imperial Diet would be formed with members of each German State sending representatives. The Imperial Diet would be empowered to take actions as agreed upon by the constituent members states for the whole German Nation.

Swedish Pomerania was transferred from Denmark (which had given it to Sweden in exchange for Norway) to Prussia.

Saxe-Lauenburg was transferred to Denmark from Hanover.

Hanover received formerly Prussian East Frisia, parts of Munster, Northeastern Westphalia, and Hanover was made into a Kingdom.

Hanover is to secede to Brunswick territory to connect the state into one continuous entity.

Most of the territorial gains of Bavaria, Württemberg, Baden, Hesse-Darmstadt, and Nassau under the mediatizations of 1801–1806 were recognized, though separately negotiated treaties with the new Westphalian Kingdoms would reverse parts of these mediatizations on a case by case basis.

The mediatization involving Munster is to be undone and Munster is to be reformed as an independent entity.

Bavaria gained parts of the Napoleonic Duchy of Würzburg.

Hesse-Darmstadt, in exchange for giving up the Duchy of Westphalia, received Rhenish Hesse with its capital at Mainz.

Austria regained control of the Tyrol and Salzburg; of the former Illyrian Provinces; of Tarnopol district (from Russia); received Lombardy-Venetia in Italy and Ragusa in Dalmatia. Former Austrian territory in Southwest Germany remained under the control of Württemberg and Baden, and the Austrian Netherlands were also not recovered.



Warthausen’s sudden ascendancy after Metternich’s untimely death had paved the way for Prussia’s annexation of Saxony and the humiliation of the Polish provisions. In the rest of Germany, Austria had managed to cobble together an Anti-Prussia alliance of those fearful and resentful of Prussian power to not only support his efforts to create an Imperial Diet, but to give it some real power. Prussia, having used much of its diplomatic capital was unable to do much but make the wording vague. Whether this new Imperial Diet would unify Germany or be a meaningless placeholder would be determined with time.



Regarding the Low Countries:

The Netherlands and the Southern Netherlands were united in a constitutional monarchy, the United Kingdom of the Netherlands, with the House of Orange-Nassau providing the king.

To compensate for the Orange-Nassau's loss of the Nassau lands to Prussia, the United Kingdom of the Netherlands and the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg were to form a personal union under the House of Orange-Nassau, with Luxembourg (but not the Netherlands) inside the German Confederation.

Austria retains the right to administer in the name the Netherlands of the Francophone area of Wallonia in the new territory of the Southern Netherlands for a period of 50 years.

In compensation for the transfer of the Austrian Netherlands to the Netherlands, the Netherlands will pay an indemnity equal to that of 5 years of the pre 1789 tax income from said territory in such a time period as the two parties can agree upon.

It should be noted that this provision was never enforced and put into the treaty by the other powers, especially Russia and Prussia, to attempt to satiate Austria. In reality Warthausen only wanted to use it as a “Sword of Damocles” to hold over the Dutch to gain leverage,an alliance, and support in the Imperial Diet via Luxembourg.



The Low Countries’ incorporation into one entity was seen as an important part in containing France’s possible renewed imperial ambitions. The Francophone population in the Southern Netherlands would certainly be a target, but allowing French annexation would simply be impossible. France would thus be contained by a strong Netherlands which, through possible Austrian “forgiving” of Dutch responsibilities and Austrian administration of Wallonia, be a valuable ally not only against France, but also within the German Confederation and its Imperial Diet against Prussia due to the Dutch control over Luxembourg.

Italy:

The King of Sardinia was restored in Piedmont, Nice, and Savoy, and was given control of Genoa.

Sardinia was to receive ownership of Corsica from France.

The transfer of Corsica was insisted upon by Britain partly as a means of humiliating France, and partly as a means of strengthening Piedmonte against the assortment of Hapsburg duchies.

The Bourbon Ferdinand IV, King of Sicily was restored to control of the Kingdom of Naples after Joachim Murat, the king installed by Bonaparte, supported Napoleon in the Hundred Days and started the Neapolitan War by attacking Austria.

The Papal States were under the rule of the pope and restored to their former extent, with the exception of Avignon and the Comtat Venaissin, which remained part of France.

Habsburg princes were returned to control of the Grand Duchy of Tuscany and the Duchy of Modena.

German princes, subject to Austrian approval upon each succession, were given sovereignty over the Duchies of Lucca, Piacenza, and Guastalla.

The Duchy of Parma was to revert to the Bourbons for control.



In Italy Austria was able to engorge its territorial and political demands. The retention of these various states and the prevention of any state as a force to restore the Napoleonic Kingdom of Italy was of the upmost importance. Britain was somewhat nervous about Austria possibly gaining puppets across Italy, and it was debated which royal house should inherit which duchy. It was eventually decided that a similar mechanism to the Confederation of Poland. However the acquiescence of Parma back to the Bourbons, Venitia and Lombardy directly into the Austrian Empire, and of Tuscany and Modena directly to the Habsburg line, meant that it was mostly a face saving move for the British. There was (unofficial) talk of having the Duchies of Lucca, Piacenza, and Gustalla all revert to British Royals, but that was eventually scraped.

Beyond Europe and Miscellaneous:

France received back Guadeloupe from Sweden in return for yearly installments to the Swedish king.

Britain was confirmed in control of the Cape Colony in Southern Africa; Tobago; Ceylon; and various other colonies in Africa and Asia. Other colonies, most notably the Dutch East Indies and Martinique, were restored to their previous owners.

The slave trade was condemned.

Freedom of navigation was guaranteed for many rivers, notably the Rhine and the Danube.



The Congress of Vienna saw many winners. Warthausen, who had before been relegated to finance and Metternich seen as Austria’s rising star, was credited with the creation of the Concert System and Austria’s about face turn in the negotiations to be seen as an “honorable salvager”. Austria was satisfied with its gains in the German Confederation and in Italy. Prussia felt that it had won because it got what it wanted, Saxony, and didn’t have to accept some other consolation prize (though it did want Posen to be totally annexed). France got what it wanted because it didn’t lose that much. Russia got what it wanted because, even though it desired all of Poland as a direct annexation, it now held control over the totally dependent Polish state which it could direct away from Russia and towards ethnically Polish area in Austria and Prussia. Britain felt that even though its initial designs weren’t all totally met, the balance of power was still more or less preserved on the continent and thus its own security assured.

The Congress of Vienna also saw many losers. Austria was upset that it didn't get to recover more German lands or even gain some more and viewed Italian states and administration of part of their old Austrian Netherlands as consolation prizes, and were very upset at the outcome of the Polish and Saxon situations. Prussia was upset that of all the powers, even though it got what it wanted, it got the least, and felt that for all of the trauma of dealing with Napoleon, that Saxony and a few minor chunks around Germany, were poor consolation prizes France was upset that it still lost territory (Corsica; a finger in the eye for Napoleon’s birthplace) and that while it was able to play kingmaker, it could do little else. Russia was upset in that it didn’t get what it wanted in Poland and that the Holy Alliance it dreamed of for perpetual stability and as a mechanism for destroying the Turks was nothing more than a meaningless commitment. Britain was the “least upset”, but still upset in that it seemed that while the balance of power was more or less intact, it was now a balance between a few giants rather than many smaller actors.

Only time would tell if this new European order would last, but in the Congress the seeds of disorder were already laid.
 
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Well so begins my first ever timeline (it only took 6 years).

Lets see how this goes, I already have a pretty clear idea on where I want this timeline to go but I'm very interested to get opinions and predictions for the future. Criticism, Comments, etc... are all welcome.
 
I can't really say anything about the plausibility of the TL, but I'm certainly going to watch how this unfolds.
 
I see Denmark is still, by miles, the biggest loser at the concert, yet you don't deign to mention them...
 
Chapter Two:
France 1815-1829​

Louis XVIII was an absolute ruler in the truest form and admired the old days of total absolutism. When told of Napoleon’s defeat by an aide who exclaimed “Sire, you are now King of France”, Louis responded dryly “Had I ever ceased to be?” Despite this admiration for absolutism Louis XVIII was pragmatic and understood the situation. The charter of 1814, a constitution demanded by the allies to prevent renewed revolutionary sentiment, established the Chamber of Deputies and preserved some constitutional gains of the French Revolution. However only 96,000 of 26,000,000 Frenchmen were eligible to vote, the chamber was weak, and the relationship between the chamber and king was opaque.

Despite these problems France under Louis XVIII was on track. There was a modest recovery in the economy, trade, and war-weariness kept the Bourbons on top of dissent. Unfortunately for France this was not to last as Louis XVIII died in January 1819, having only ruled for 4 years.

Louis XVIII was succeeded by his brother, Charles X. Charles X was very much like his brother in that he loved absolutism and admired the old Bourbons but very much unlike him in that he lacked any pragmatism, was totally unwilling to compromise, and was blind to the political environment around him.

Charles X instituted a series of laws which infuriated and angered every class of society. First Charles X created laws against sacrilege which, while somewhat popular with the peasantry, were so vague that is only alienated middle class liberals. Next he cracked down on the “compenage” organizations throughout France which accomplished little of what he aimed to do in creating more free trade (the compenage were private associations of Journeymen that functioned as aid-associations).

Not satisfied with his failures thus far Charles X eroded the French meritocracy to an alarming degree by appointing “Ultras” (Absolutists most of whom were émigrés during the revolution) to various positions both national and provincial. Most infuriatingly to all was his imposition of the “Law of Indemnity”, which saw a series of taxes raised in order to subsidize the expropriated nobles who lost land in the revolution. This (almost) universally unpopular move was further inflamed when, in response to criticism from the Chamber of Deputies, Charles X responded by passing what came to be known as the March Ordinances, which dissolved the Chamber of Deputies for new elections, removed the vote from the middle classes, and instituted broad press censorship.

After only over a year in power from January 1819 to April 1820 Charles X had managed to make himself so unpopular that once more there was a French revolution. Europe was apoplectic at the news of a new French Revolution and immediately prepared for an intervention. They need not have worried.

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A painting which dramatized the April Revolution and showcased the unity of the classes entitled “Liberty Leading the People”.




Charles X and the Ultras were swept out of power by both elites afraid of lower class discontent and the lower classes themselves in a mostly bloodless series of riots lasting only four days. Amongst the intellectual elite and emerging middle class businessmen republicanism had been discredited. This combined with wanting to avoid catching the ire of other European powers lead the National Assembly to declaring that Louis Philippe, Duke of Orleans, was to be the new King on May 21st 1820

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The Coat of Arms of the so called “May Monarchy”




Louis Philippe was a liberal sympathizer who’s family had supported the 1789 revolution but then been devoured in the terror and forced to flee. His background satisfied both liberals and peasants due to his support of the first revolution and foreign powers who saw his exile as a good learning experience. Louis Philippe immediately undid most of the Bourbon’s unpopular edicts and instituted a series of progressive and liberal reforms. The property requirements for voting for the Chamber of Deputies was laxed slightly, increasing the number of those eligible to vote from 26,000 to 240,000 mostly by laxing the requirements for hard property and transferring the emphasis to wealth. In addition the 1814 Charter was revamped and the new 1820 Constitution spelled out the role of the Chamber of Deputies, placed sovereignty into the hands of the people, and made Louis Philippe King of the French, rather than King of France.

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Louis Philippe was a liberal sympathizer and “bourgeois” king, often preferring to wear a suit and top hat to the kingly robes of yesteryear.




It was a good thing that Louis Philippe had clarified the roles of government and set France on the “correct” course, because he was not long able to rule. Giuseppe Marco Fieschi, a Grande Armée veteran and Corsican angry at Corsica’s transfer to the Piedmontese as well as Louis Philippe’s insufficiently liberal reforms, plotted to assassinate him. Together with several old army friends and republican conspirators Fieschi constructed what later became known as the “infernal machine”; a volley gun of 25 rifles rigged to fire simultaneously which was placed on the ground floor of an adjacent store hidden by a curtain of the route that Louis Philippe would take on his way to inspect the Paris National Guard.

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The infernal machine in a modern museum, one of the most audacious assassination weapons ever used.




On May 21st 1824, on the May Monarchy’s fourth anniversary, Fieschi’s infernal machine succeeded in killing Louis Philippe. Fieschi and his accomplices were quickly arrested but Philippe was instantly dead as were 22 other important French military commanders and members of Philippe’s entourage. As a result the crown of France now fell to Philippe’s 14 year old and underage son Ferdinand Philippe Duke of Orléans.

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Ferdinand Philippe in 1819 painted with his mother.



Being underage the Chamber of Deputies would assume control over most of the day to day operations of the French State and Ferdinand’s mother would assume the title of regent for 4 years until September 5th 1828 When Ferdinand Philippe reached the age of majority and became Ferdinand Philippe, King of the French. The young, energetic, militaristic, and bourgeois-liberal leader of France would be a driving force in the 19th century.
 
I can't really say anything about the plausibility of the TL, but I'm certainly going to watch how this unfolds.

Thank you very much.

I see Denmark is still, by miles, the biggest loser at the concert, yet you don't deign to mention them...

Well Denmark, through its controversies involving Schleswig-Holstein, did play a fairly important role in German unification OTL and that issue isn't just going to disappear.



Well I hope the latest chapter is acceptable and I hope you all enjoyed the 2nd French Revolution, the decade early rise of Louis Philippe, and our new King Ferdinand Philippe.
 
It's nice to see a TL about this topic. I started a discussion thread about a similar idea not long ago. The early parts of the thread might not be very relevant to you, but the latter half of it might perhaps be of some use. The plausibility, role and extent of a Rhineland/Westphalia compensation for the Saxon monarch was discussed quite a bit, among other things.

In any case, I'll definitely be following this TL. The first story update regarding France was pretty interesting.


Some criticism and questions, since you asked for it in the Map Thread: (Sorry for the wall of text)
Russia desired to annex the entire state and was only prevented from doing so for fear of Russian power by the other participants.
It was this fear that let them annex most of Poland OTL. Would Metternich's untimely death really change this?

Saxony had been a key object of Prussian ambition since Frederick the Great, and at Vienna it was finally realized. Strengthening Prussia by giving it Saxony was seen as optimal. While Metternich had been against such a move by Prussia, Warthausen reasoned that Prussia’s annexation of Saxony would be seen as a move which would garner Prussia a lot of power and thus give Austria a free hand elsewhere (such as in Italy).
I don't know much about Warthausen, but I am not sure if that logic works. Prussian expansion into Saxony was seen as a direct threat to Bohemia and Austria as a whole, and would undermine Austria's role as a protector of the rights of the small and medium-sized powers of the German Confederation. It wouldn't free up a hand elsewhere as much as tie it down more tightly than ever before.

Gaining Prussian support in the negotiations regarding Poland is the only situation I can imagine where Austria would willingly - if grudgingly - concede Saxony to them. Given that Poland is semi-independent here, that would seem to be the case, but if so, it's not clear from the contents of your post.

Westphalia was to be reformed as a to compensate the displaced monarchs of Saxony.
I am assuming the polity corresponding to the Rhine Province is supposed to be your Westphalian kingdom? It's a bit big considering it's compensation for a "traitor," and even includes land given to Bavaria as compensation OTL. I don't necessarily think they'd trust a monarch who - in the eyes of the powers at Vienna - is pro-French with Rhenish border defense either. The Rhinelands were given to Prussia OTL for a reason: it ensured their interest in countering France in the area. A relatively weak power with a history of "treason" and pro-French tendencies isn't going to be a welcome alternative. (Though there is no good answer to who would get them instead.)
Hanover is to secede to Brunswick territory to connect the state into one continuous entity
What did Brunswick do to deserve that extra territory? Pretty borders are nice, but nobody is going to give up territory for the sole sake of ensuring them, especially not to a state as irrelevant as Brunswick

The mediatization involving Munster is to be undone and Munster is to be reformed as an independent entity.
Why? Who rules it? Why does it contain territory that was never part of Münster?

In the rest of Germany, Austria had managed to cobble together an Anti-Prussia alliance of those fearful and resentful of Prussian power
Given Austria's support of Prussia's annexation of Saxony ITTL, I don't necessarily think the lesser German powers would trust Austria enough as a protector. Indeed, it might push them even more into the Russian camp favored by the duke of Württemberg among others OTL, if Prussia isn't an option.

to not only support his efforts to create an Imperial Diet, but to give it some real power. Prussia, having used much of its diplomatic capital was unable to do much but make the wording vague.
So not only did the Austrians hand over Saxony to Prussia, they're now trying to increase their power and influence over the rest of Germany as well? That most likely won't sit well with most of the members of the German Confederation. They may be fearful of Prussian power and influence, but Austria is no better if they're going to act like that. It might be welcomed by the smaller states pressured by Prussia, but to the larger polities in Southern Germany it would just be seen as an attempt by Austria to expand their hegemony over them. Prussia could use that to gain leverage against Austria even if they spent their diplomatic capital at Vienna. Russia wouldn't just sit quietly by either; the czar saw himself as the protector of the rights of the lesser German monarchs for some reason.

To compensate for the Orange-Nassau's loss of the Nassau lands to Prussia, the United Kingdom of the Netherlands and the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg were to form a personal union under the House of Orange-Nassau, with Luxembourg (but not the Netherlands) inside the German Confederation.
Why would they give up any land to Prussia in this timeline? Prussia doesn't have interests in the west here, after all. The Netherlands might get more land regardless, but it wouldn't be in compensation for lands ceded to Prussia.

Austria retains the right to administer in the name the Netherlands of the Francophone area of Wallonia in the new territory of the Southern Netherlands for a period of 50 years.
1815 is a bit too early for the powers to care much about the language and nationality of the people they govern. If they're going to administer anything in BeNeLux region it would be Luxembourg due to the importance the fortress there held to Rhineland defense. (Or something based on the sub-divisions within the country rather than their nationality)

Sardinia was to receive ownership of Corsica from France.

The transfer of Corsica was insisted upon by Britain partly as a means of humiliating France, and partly as a means of strengthening Piedmonte against the assortment of Hapsburg duchies.
Any move to humiliate France would threaten the stability of the new regime there. Talleyrand's hand must be significantly weaker - or not present at all - at the negotiations for this to happen. Is that the case? You haven't mentioned him at all so far.

German princes, subject to Austrian approval upon each succession, were given sovereignty over the Duchies of Lucca, Piacenza, and Guastalla.
Which German princes, and why did they go to them instead of to the people who got them OTL?
 
It's nice to see a TL about this topic. I started a discussion thread about a similar idea not long ago. The early parts of the thread might not be very relevant to you, but the latter half of it might perhaps be of some use. The plausibility, role and extent of a Rhineland/Westphalia compensation for the Saxon monarch was discussed quite a bit, among other things.

In any case, I'll definitely be following this TL. The first story update regarding France was pretty interesting.

Thanks, glad to get a follower and criticism.


Some criticism and questions, since you asked for it in the Map Thread: (Sorry for the wall of text)
It was this fear that let them annex most of Poland OTL. Would Metternich's untimely death really change this?

Russia's acquiescence to this will be explained in the future via the context of the Holy Alliance. which I wanted to put in the first update but given how it becomes a recurring theme for a while I opted to give it its own. I did already partially explain the other rationale though ; having an independent Poland under Russian control (an essential puppet state) in combination with ethnic cleansing to dump Poles from its old eastern territories to reflect Polish territorial aspirations Westwards and Southwards.

I don't know much about Warthausen, but I am not sure if that logic works. Prussian expansion into Saxony was seen as a direct threat to Bohemia and Austria as a whole, and would undermine Austria's role as a protector of the rights of the small and medium-sized powers of the German Confederation. It wouldn't free up a hand elsewhere as much as tie it down more tightly than ever before.

I poorly wrote this part so I will fix it. This is the reasoning associated with a consolation prize mentality IE well Prussia got Saxony, but at least...

Gaining Prussian support in the negotiations regarding Poland is the only situation I can imagine where Austria would willingly - if grudgingly - concede Saxony to them. Given that Poland is semi-independent here, that would seem to be the case, but if so, it's not clear from the contents of your post.

Yes it is begrudging, mostly because they are upset at what happened with Poland and would have Preferred to just have Russia annex it all (and Prussia didn't get Posen entirely).

I am assuming the polity corresponding to the Rhine Province is supposed to be your Westphalian kingdom? It's a bit big considering it's compensation for a "traitor," and even includes land given to Bavaria as compensation OTL. I don't necessarily think they'd trust a monarch who - in the eyes of the powers at Vienna - is pro-French with Rhenish border defense either. The Rhinelands were given to Prussia OTL for a reason: it ensured their interest in countering France in the area. A relatively weak power with a history of "treason" and pro-French tendencies isn't going to be a welcome alternative. (Though there is no good answer to who would get them instead.)
What did Brunswick do to deserve that extra territory? Pretty borders are nice, but nobody is going to give up territory for the sole sake of ensuring them, especially not to a state as irrelevant as Brunswick

I actually planned on dividing the Rhineland into two kingdoms (including that part I took from Bavaria) but I couldn't find another suitable monarch. Brunswick's corridor was actually considered OTL; since Hanover got land in the northeast of Westphalia I think it was appropriate.

Given Austria's support of Prussia's annexation of Saxony ITTL, I don't necessarily think the lesser German powers would trust Austria enough as a protector. Indeed, it might push them even more into the Russian camp favored by the duke of Württemberg among others OTL, if Prussia isn't an option.
This is a wise fear. Just to be clear I don't intend this to be an Austria-wank.

So not only did the Austrians hand over Saxony to Prussia, they're now trying to increase their power and influence over the rest of Germany as well? That most likely won't sit well with most of the members of the German Confederation. They may be fearful of Prussian power and influence, but Austria is no better if they're going to act like that. It might be welcomed by the smaller states pressured by Prussia, but to the larger polities in Southern Germany it would just be seen as an attempt by Austria to expand their hegemony over them. Prussia could use that to gain leverage against Austria even if they spent their diplomatic capital at Vienna. Russia wouldn't just sit quietly by either; the czar saw himself as the protector of the rights of the lesser German monarchs for some reason.

Again see above. This was a common fault of Warthausen in that he couldn't see the trees for the forest. He was an innovative and systems-wide thinker that laid a lot of the groundwork for Metternich but he wasn't a perfect person.

Why would they give up any land to Prussia in this timeline? Prussia doesn't have interests in the west here, after all. The Netherlands might get more land regardless, but it wouldn't be in compensation for lands ceded to Prussia.

1815 is a bit too early for the powers to care much about the language and nationality of the people they govern. If they're going to administer anything in BeNeLux region it would be Luxembourg due to the importance the fortress there held to Rhineland defense. (Or something based on the sub-divisions within the country rather than their nationality)
I already explained this a bit, but its mostly an attempt by Austria to get an alliance with the Netherlands via "forgiving" this part of the treaty. I also think that its not too early. They don't care about nationalities in their states but they do recognize the problems they can cause.

Any move to humiliate France would threaten the stability of the new regime there. Talleyrand's hand must be significantly weaker - or not present at all - at the negotiations for this to happen. Is that the case? You haven't mentioned him at all so far.

This is true and it already did, we saw the Bourbons fall in 1820 instead of 1830 to the Orleanists. Talleyrand was still around.

Which German princes, and why did they go to them instead of to the people who got them OTL?

I have an in depth update concerning Italy which will elaborate more on this and show Europe's first post-Napoleonic crisis.
 
Russia's acquiescence to this will be explained in the future via the context of the Holy Alliance. which I wanted to put in the first update but given how it becomes a recurring theme for a while I opted to give it its own. I did already partially explain the other rationale though ; having an independent Poland under Russian control (an essential puppet state) in combination with ethnic cleansing to dump Poles from its old eastern territories to reflect Polish territorial aspirations Westwards and Southwards.
Your explanation does make some degree of sense, but I am guessing it's not as much a solution to the problem as it is a compromise and a recipe for future disaster.

I actually planned on dividing the Rhineland into two kingdoms (including that part I took from Bavaria) but I couldn't find another suitable monarch.
You could give more of it to the Netherlands, perhaps? I'll repost an interesting thing from my discussion thread that might be relevant here:

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The Netherlands and its new borders, as proposed in Willem Frederik's memorandum of 9 November 1813. (Source)

Obviously I'm not suggesting that they get all of that, but they could certainly get some of it. Giving them Cleves, and expanding your Münster down to the Ruhr river instead might be a good start. Letting the Bavarians get their chunk of Palatine Rhineland as OTL would also be good.
 
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