Henry VIII dies in 1536

In OTL on the 24th of January 1536. Henry VIII had a jousting accident. He was unconscious for two hours, amazingly he wasn't killed by such an accident. The POD here is that Henry VIII is killed by this jousting accident.

His heir at the time the future Elizabeth I becomes Queen at the age of 2. Until Elizabeth was old enough (probably around 15 or 16) to assume the control of England's government. The privy council (as it did during the reign of Edward VI) would rule on her behalf.

Although I do believe the faction supporting the Boleyn family were in majority in the privy council in 1536. Therefore the Boleyn family would be ruling England, like the Seymour family did during the reign of Edward VI.

One question that comes to my mind in this TL, is the fate of Thomas Cromwell. Cromwell, very likely played a key role in OTL in the downfall of Anne Boleyn. Prehaps Cromwell executed instead for embezzlement.

I remember two discussions about this POD that could help:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=122362

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=301585

The faction surrounding Anne Boleyn contains enough power to proclaim the Princess Elizabeth Queen but there will still be strong popular support for Mary - much will depend on how swiftly supporters of either side are able to move.
On Cromwell it is still debateable whether he wanted personally to destroy Anne Boleyn or whether he was acting out of self interest on the instructions of the King.
In a TL with the King dead then his loyalty and support is going to Anne and her daughter he has little to gain and a lot to lose by supporting Mary.

mcdnab said:

The faction surrounding Anne Boleyn contains enough power to proclaim the Princess Elizabeth Queen but there will still be strong popular support for Mary - much will depend on how swiftly supporters of either side are able to move.
On Cromwell it is still debateable whether he wanted personally to destroy Anne Boleyn or whether he was acting out of self interest on the instructions of the King.
In a TL with the King dead then his loyalty and support is going to Anne and her daughter he has little to gain and a lot to lose by supporting Mary.

Click to expand...

In such a situation would Cromwell's views be any more decisive than Northumberland's were in 1553? He might get Elizabeth proclaimed but would her "reign" be any longer than Jane Grey's?

Perhaps this might all depend on the remaining strength of Roman Catholicism in England versus support for Henry VIII's reforms as well as support for Protestant sectarianism? IMO it seems that the latter two would be natural allies against the Catholics...?

Well support for Elizabeth is going to be - Norfolk, Crammer, Cromwell and most of the King's household, the Boleyn family and their connections.

Suffolk is an unknown - he and his first wife were not overly supportive of the divorce but his second wife was a keen reformer (although she is still very young at this period)

Mary's can probably count on the support of some of the traditional families and will probably have more support in the north than in the south and midlands.

The issue in the short-term for Elizabeth's supporters is getting hold of Mary and quickly - I would bet a delay in the King's death announcement and placing Mary under house-arrest swiftly.

If she remains free then it means conflict.

Gonzaga said:

I remember two discussions about this POD that could help:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=122362

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=301585

Click to expand...

Thank you for that, gives me some food for thought.

mcdnab said:

Well support for Elizabeth is going to be - Norfolk, Crammer, Cromwell and most of the King's household, the Boleyn family and their connections.

Suffolk is an unknown - he and his first wife were not overly supportive of the divorce but his second wife was a keen reformer (although she is still very young at this period)

Mary's can probably count on the support of some of the traditional families and will probably have more support in the north than in the south and midlands.

The issue in the short-term for Elizabeth's supporters is getting hold of Mary and quickly - I would bet a delay in the King's death announcement and placing Mary under house-arrest swiftly.

If she remains free then it means conflict.

Click to expand...

I can expect the supporters of the Toddler Queen who would dominate a regency (in-spite some of them hated each other), to delay the news of Henry's death. So that Mary gets imprisoned in the tower

Methinks Reginald Pole (along with other members of the aristocracy) will return back to England and lead the Pilgrimage of Grace, which will become a rebellion to free the rightful Queen Mary from the Tower. Such a rebellion would be much more successful than OTL, it would end up with the Boleyns and Thomas Cromwell (at the very least) being executed.

Mary is crowned Queen of England and the toddler Elizabeth is given as a ward to a family which would be loyal to the new regime and Elizabeth is raised as a Catholic (not as Protestant in OTL). I can see Mary assigning if she is still alive Lady Margaret Pole as Elizabeth's governess.

The question I cannot answer is whether or not Mary has an heir (regardless of who she marries), given she might have had problems conceiving in OTL. If she does not her heir is going to be Mary I & II, Queen of England and Scotland.