Following the fall of Hashemite Iraq in February 1958, the Nixon Administration reversed course in the Middle East. Previously the regime had been extremely hostile to Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser, though it had quietly allowed a Syria teetering on the brink of communism to merge with Egypt in December 1957. At the time, the Administration figured, over the objections of the British, that the expansion of the new United Arab Republic into Iraq was preferable to the new Iraqi regime falling under communist rule. [1] The retired General Eisenhower, who cast a long shadow over Nixon since he made his decision not to seek a second term in 1956, approved of this, commenting that "Since we are about to get thrown out of the area, we might as well believe in Arab nationalism." [2] With quiet American support, the new Iraqi regime was encouraged to join the UAR. This enraged the British government, who lent support to King Hussein of Jordan in his last-ditch attempt to salvage the Hashemite dynasty in Iraq. The resulting fiasco would lead to the fall of Jordan to a Nasserist-inspired revolt, and was derided throughout the Western world as "The Second Suez". By the end of the year, Jordan was in the UAR and MacMillan was out of Downing Street. Rab Butler led the Conservative Party to a landslide loss in the following election. After the Second Suez, Lebanese President Chamoun's appeals for intervention to steady his regime against the Muslim majority's pro-UAR protests was unthinkable, and Lebanon too joined the UAR by the end of 1958.
Following the disastrous 1958 Midterm Revolution, President Richard Nixon was reduced to a rump President in domestic affairs, as Majority Leader Lyndon Johnson was able to pass his New Society legislation with a veto-proof majority. Nixon turned even more to foreign affairs, and his greatest accomplishment as President is generally deemed his 1960 visit to Cairo. However, this was not enough of a boost to give him victory for a second term. Nixon lost the popular vote by a razor-thin margin, but it was his loss in the electoral college that proved most humiliating: the State of Illinois was declared, after several recounts, to be a tie between Nixon and Johnson. Johnson won the coin flip, and thus, the Presidency. Domestically, the Johnson Era continued.
By 1964, the United Arab Republic was nearly in tatters. Nasser consolidated too much power onto himself. His Iraqi deputy, Abdul Salam Arif, had managed to persuade Nasser to allow considerable autonomy for Iraq. But Arif was the only politician in the entire UAR that Nasser respected enough to consider giving up on his power. To placate Syria after a 1962 officer's revolt, Lebanon and Jordan were joined to the Syrian Province, undoing the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement that had carved up Syria instead of supporting a united Arab Kingdom centered in Damascus. But by 1964, the Syrians were again agitating for more autonomy, and Nasser was reluctant to give it to them. This all changed when Israel, feeling increasingly encircled by its Arab foes, invaded the UAR in what would be known as the One Day War. Just two hours after the war began, the
USS Liberty was accidentally attacked by the IAF. In response, the US Navy's Six Fleet carrier, the
USS America, launched nuclear weapons at the Israeli base in charge of the
Liberty attack. The
Liberty incident caused the Israeli government to fall, and by the end of the day, the Israelis had withdrawn and the war was over.
In the Arab World, the
Liberty incident was seen as a miraculous punishment from God in revenge for Israeli aggression in 1948, 1956, and 1964. In Saudi Arabia, a power struggle between King Saud (assisted by the Free Princes movement, Oil Minister Abdullah Tariki, and increasingly large Saudi army) and Prince Faisal (assisted by the
ulema, the Sudairi Seven, and the increasingly large and newly-reformed
Ikhwan) came to a sudden end when Nasserists in the army and
Ikhwan officers came together in a successful
coup. The new regime demanded immediate accession to the United Arab Republic, "according to God's will." After making sure that there would not be an American intervention (not only was it an election year, but Johnson was loath to get involved in a war after winding down Nixon's unpopular foreign adventure in Indochina), Nasser accepted. This set off Nasserist
coups in Libya and Sudan, who also promptly joined the UAR. Ben Bella, President of Algeria, had always been the most pro-Nasser of all the Arab statesmen. Nasser had hosted him in exile during the entire Algerian War, and was viewed by Bella as a paternal figure. Bella joined the euphoria after divine victory over Israel, and Algeria joined the UAR.
Nasser was now on top of the world. In less than a decade since his triumph at Suez transformed him into the only credible Arab head of state, he had largely united the entire Arab world under his leadership. But cracks were threatening to break up the new union. The Nasserists in Libya and the former Saudi Arabia had been naive enough to let Nasser to what he wished, and he quickly established his power in those provinces. But the political class of Algeria and Sudan were extremely reluctant to kowtow to Cairo, and their voice combined with the Syrians and even Arif's Iraqis in forming a proper federation. Nasser was enraged, and the largely secret negotiations took up nearly the rest of 1964. Nasser ultimately scuttled the talks entirely in order to focus on the nationalization of the oil industry. In October 1964, Nasser announced that he had managed to get a 60:40 deal in ownership of oil between the UAR and the oil companies in the province of Iraq. The resulting celebrations in the streets boosted the unity of the the UAR, despite the near-fracture it had endured just months earlier.
On January 1, 1965, Gamal Abdel Nasser died. Coming just a few months after he gained control of oil for the Arab people for the first time, and less than a year after he had united the majority of the Arab world under his rule, he was mourned more extensively than any leader before or since in the Arab memory. Nasser was succeeded by his Iraqi Vice President, Arif. Arif would dismantle Nasser's Arab Union Party, choosing to spread the influence of the
Ba'ath Party as a civilian counterpart to the United Arab Free Officers Movement. Knowing he would never reach the heights of Nasser's power, Arif successfully negotiated with local elites in Syria and Sudan over autonomy, though he had to send in the military to crush an aborted anti-Bella
coup in Algiers. Arif also warmed relations with the United States, who had been growing increasingly wary of the UAR as it had gained more power and territory. As Arif would explain it, "Nasser had finally broken the back of colonialism. Once we had Arab unity, we could deal with the Americans eye-to-eye." But colonialism was not completely eradicated. Arif successfully invaded the newly-independent British client states on the Arabian peninsula. The last colonial puppets cried out for a savior, but the British Labour government, unwilling to "go for a Suez Round Three," met their pleas with silence. With this, colonialism in the Middle East ended. Arif was able to use his political capital from the successful war to go to Tel Aviv, who were relieved that the UAR did not really long to drive them into the sea after all. Instating the Right of Return seemed like a small price to pay. Complaints by many Palestinians that a "visa error" would not let them actually return to their lost homeland were mysteriously absent from the Voice of the Arabs.
After surviving an assassination attempt from anti-Israel extremists, Arif became paranoid that the near-breakup of the UAR would have happened again had he died. He worked to further institutionalize power in the
Ba'ath Party instead of centralizing it on himself, though he remained without a doubt the paramount leader of the party. Arif also became interested in expansion to Morocco, as the addition of the populous Arab state on the edge of Africa would further blunt charges of Egyptian hegemony. He actually got his chance in Tunisia first: President Bourguiba was convinced that Arif was plotting to invade his country, and ordered a hit on Arif. After surviving his second assassination in a year, Arif declared that God was protecting him, and publicly called out Bourguiba on Voice of the Arabs for his complicity in the assassination attempt. While Arif viewed the issue of Tunisian accession to the UAR with disinterest, he was enraged. So were the Tunisian people; Arif was by now nearly as popular in the Arab world as Nasser was. Tunisia joined the UAR in a popular referendum a few months after Bourguiba fled to Paris, though the narrowness of the vote (it was democratic) offended Arif. Following the referendum, Nasserist officers in Morocco launched a coup. However, the King Hassan held firm, and Arif was forced to intervene. Paranoid that Morocco would view itself as a conquered province, Arif launched an invasion of the Spanish Sahara and Mauritania the following year, fulfilling Moroccan nationalist's dreams of a Greater Morocco. Arif also redesigned the provincial borders in Arabia in a similar bid to quell a simmering rebellion in the backwards Yemen Province. These events were greatly played up by the Voice of the Arabs in 1972, while the quiet independence of New Sudan was downplayed. Arif spent the rest of the 1970s consolidating
Ba'athist hegemony over the UAR, often with the help of oil money. One last small war of expansion would occur in 1980, during a brief the Arab intervention in the Iranian Civil War. As an Iraqi, Arif was particularly proud of the liberation of Khuzestan.
Arif's rule came to a sudden end when the 1998 Arab Spring forced him to call for free elections.
Ba'athists maintain that Arif expanded the Arab nation's land, health, education, and living standards, but his opponents deride him for his authoritarianism, corruption, and drifting from Nasser's socialist vision in exchange for American support. In the 2000 presidential election, Muslim Brotherhood candidate Qaboos bin Said won a convincing victory in a three-way race, with the
Ba'athist Mohamed Heikal coming in second, and independent Khalid Abdel Nasser coming in third. President Said was reelected in 2004 rather easily, though the strength of the second-place finisher, Neo-Nasserist Muammar Gaddafi, came as a great surprise. The
Ba'athist candidate, Rafik Hairiri, got third. Said's Vice President, Leila Khaled, was elected over Gaddafi by a frog's hair in 2008, with
Ba'athist Bassel al-Assad coming a distant third. Gaddafi refused to accept the election, and his supporters staged several demonstrations against Khaled in an attempt to force his resignation. After this stunt, observers were even
more surprised that Gaddafi did as well as he did in the 2012 election, when the
Ba'athists finally reentered power with the victory of Saad Hariri, who opponents criticized for his perceived nature as puppet to
Ba'athist power brokers and the bias coverage he received from the still-influential Voice of the Arabs. For the first time, the Muslim Brotherhood placed third, though the unpopular incumbent put up a spirited campaign.
[1] The Eisenhower Administration and MacMillan Government were at odds over the same issue IOTL.
[2] He said this IOTL. However, Nixon goes through with the
détente with Nasser more thoroughly.