Texas Alone

Yossarian

I've noticed that on this site, and in much of the AH I see out there, there's a tendency to have Texas secede from the Confederacy at some point after a Confederate victory in the civil war.

How likely would this be to actually come about? I know Texas has a history of independence, but there has never really been a serious move in that direction IOTL. Would it be different under the Confederacy, particularly given that there would be even less national interference in state affairs in that scenario?
 

Strategos

Banned
Not that unlikely really. Although it does raise interesting possibilities, like Texan expansion to the South and West.

If the CSA manages to bloody the Union enough or kill off enough of the Union army to where they dont have enough Army to defend the core union territory, then the Union may not be able to hold on to the Western Territories both politically and militarily.

California might decide to strike out on there own as well.

Now, If Texas does try to secede, I dont see the CSA as being able or really willing to keep them in. Hell, I doubt they would be able to convince the fighting men to do it.

So...Balkanize me?:p
 

cubefreak123

Banned
You might be surprised actually. When Texas seceded from the union, they did so as an independent country; it wasn't until about a month later that they joined the CSA. It all comes down to when the war was won and how the CSA treated Texas. From 1863 and on the CSA was trying to squeeze blood out of a turnip in everything from men to materials to money. Texas was a huge cotton producer but the military commanders that were put in place there by Richmond declared martial law and heavily restricted the export of cotton. Now assuming that the war is won like we see in TL-191 then the chances of Texas seceding, at least right away, are pretty slim. As long as the CSA doesn't interfere taking over Texas affairs (that is why they seceded after all) and maintains their promise of protecting the border against foreign and native attacks, Texas is more than likely to stay in with the CSA.

The only scenarios I can think of that would lead to Texas seceding would be: 1) the CSA tries to administer Texas in a similar or more stringent manner than the Union; 2) the CSA getting into another war and losing so badly that Texas secedes just to get a better peace agreement; 3) someone they don't like gets elected the head of the CSA. That last one sounds asinine but considering the reaction from the last election added in with a more independent-minded populace and it's not that far off.
 

Falecius

cubefreak123 said:
You might be surprised actually. When Texas seceded from the union, they did so as an independent country; it wasn't until about a month later that they joined the CSA. It all comes down to when the war was won and how the CSA treated Texas. From 1863 and on the CSA was trying to squeeze blood out of a turnip in everything from men to materials to money. Texas was a huge cotton producer but the military commanders that were put in place there by Richmond declared martial law and heavily restricted the export of cotton. Now assuming that the war is won like we see in TL-191 then the chances of Texas seceding, at least right away, are pretty slim. As long as the CSA doesn't interfere taking over Texas affairs (that is why they seceded after all) and maintains their promise of protecting the border against foreign and native attacks, Texas is more than likely to stay in with the CSA.

The only scenarios I can think of that would lead to Texas seceding would be: 1) the CSA tries to administer Texas in a similar or more stringent manner than the Union; 2) the CSA getting into another war and losing so badly that Texas secedes just to get a better peace agreement; 3) someone they don't like gets elected the head of the CSA. That last one sounds asinine but considering the reaction from the last election added in with a more independent-minded populace and it's not that far off.
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This assumes a Confederacy that is able to put its together at all, a view that has been challenged seriously on this board. Many posters here tend to believe that independent CSA has little chance to remain united as a coherent country with reasonable internal stability.
 

Yossarian

Falecius said:
This assumes a Confederacy that is able to put its together at all, a view that has been challenged seriously on this board. Many posters here tend to believe that independent CSA has little chance to remain united as a coherent country with reasonable internal stability.
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Well assuming they manage to win the war, which is certainly within the realm of possibility if unlikely, what would be next? Is this implying they would totally split up with each state as an independent nation?
 

Falecius

Yossarian said:
Well assuming they manage to win the war, which is certainly within the realm of possibility if unlikely, what would be next? Is this implying they would totally split up with each state as an independent nation?
Click to expand...

Not necessarily. I am personally agnostic on the matter, but I can easily see a situation where states like Tennessee and maybe Arkansas re-apply to join the Union. Louisiana, Texas and Florida might go their own way, while I guess that a rump Confederacy of Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and SC can be around. I am quit unsure about the fate of Virginia and NC.
Of course, any similar outcome is likely to be accompanied by a large and nasty clusterfuck of rebellion, unrest, collapsing economy, civil war, and general chaos and destruction, not to mention slave revolts and heavy Union meddling. I honestly see every Confederate state as a stable independent nation as a less likely outcome than a stable united (albeit maybe reduced) Confederacy, since in that case the Union would gradually retake it all (unless they decide it's not worth the effort).
 

othyrsyde

It's not each state will become it's own nation. You could see a few break off and either rejoin the Union or go their own way. You could really see this if you follow my theory that the CSA would become a highly autocratic state, and never giving up the amount of power the federal government attained in the war effort.

I've also read that the western confederate states in general were dissatisfied with the CSA.
 
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