The War of Mexican Intervention? (~1995)

Well, its my first post here, so be nice. I've been on a bit of a binge of reading about globalization and anti-globalization, and I came up with this little scenario. Any comments and suggestions would be heartily accepted.

POD: 1994

1994- EZLN command structure is located through bribery of the newspapers that publish them and some (possibly US assisted) bushwork. In January of 1994, a Mexican helicopter gunship in Chiapas strafes and kills Subcommander Marcos and about a dozen other EZLN fighters. Kill is confirmed by Mexican Army regulars.

EZLN, in outrage, begins more radical actions. Suspected contact with the FARC and possibly financial support out of the newly released Hugo Chavez and his MVR movement later in the year spurs military action.

1995- Violence intensifies in Chiapas. Mexican Army embarrassed when several soldiers defect and aid ambushes on Mexican Army troops. Clinton issues a condemnation of the Zapatistas. But the US does see some effect as the chicano movement is encouraged in the Southern United States. The US classifies the Zapatistas as a terrorist group after the Mexican government claims they have killed negotiators. Zapatistas deny the allegations and continue their insurgency.

The Zapatista movement spreads outside Chiapas and into major cities. Mexican Army incapacitated by violent and non-violent protest. Mexican Army declares martial law in all effected areas and promises to punish any media publishing EZLN declarations.

The turning point comes when Mexican oilfields are seized in a daring raid in December. Among them are several American consultants. US demands they be released while some protest that this group has nothing to do with the EZLN and is likely FARC attempting to instigate conflict. The raiders say they will release the hostages on the condition that US halt all trade effected by NAFTA and remain neutral.

Clinton, knowing the election is coming up, does what he hopes will encourage US voters. US Navy SEALS are sent in and free all hostages, except for a Mexican and American who were hit by a ricocheting slug of unknown origin and a Zapatista bullet, respectively. The US, outraged, makes a joint statement with the Mexican government that they will classify the Zapatistas as terrorists and sends over 3,000 US SPECFOR and soldiers into Mexico to assist Federal troops.

The War of Mexican Intervention (or the War of Yanqui Imperialism, depending on who you ask), had begun.

this might be random but welcome to the board, you seem to start off good

Hey, thanks a lot.

Continuation of the timeline...

1996- US troops are deployed into Chiapas and the surrounding territories, using Mexican intelligence agents to pinpoint targets for precision strikes. Laser-Guided Bombs are dropped in the dozens during the initial days of the strike, while US Army Rangers hunt down Zapatistas in the brush. The US Army is very successful despite some warning that the jungles of Chiapas could become 'a new Vietnam'.

In retaliation, Zapatistas encourage Chicano groups to revive the brown berets. They cross the border and in three coordinated strikes, body-armored, assault rifle toting men seize a Bank and shopping mall in the Los Angeles area. The LAPD's intial response teams are shredded to pieces at the bank, where, using two hostages as a shield, an unknown man used a belt-fed machinegun to destroy entire patrol cars. The LAPD SWAT was called in, and in a coordinated sniper and assault team strike, killed all 5 of the terrorists. However, the massive automatic weapon crossfire resulted in the deaths of 3 hostages. At the shopping mall, the attack was a bit more successful, though had a much more profound psychological impact. TV crews and security cameras recorded chilling images: polished tiles smeared with the blood of rent-a-cops, armed gunmen exchanging shots with the LAPD, and hostages screaming for their lives. No hostages were killed though a police officer lost his life when a high-powered .308 bullet hit him in the head. In his honor the 'Schumaker Bill' was passed by Californian legislation, adding several thousand assault rifles to the inventories of border-city Police Departments.

Meanwhile, the US began an extensive campaign to track down and prosecute those involved in the logistics and planning of the act. FBI agents stormed the barrios, though two suspects (including a drug-lord who'd used his connections to acquire many of the rifles used in the act) fled to Cuba.

The election year rolled forward, with Clinton promising to uphold the rights of Latin American citizens and secure Mexico, while Dole argued the NAFTA act was too damaging to be upheld, essentially through violence. Democrats snapped back saying that this selfish attitude would only allow Mexico to destablize more, and may even increase illegal immigration beyond the rising levels due to a Mexican flight from dictatorship.

Though it was not the sole campaign issue, Clinton won the election.

1997- The dominant news story out of Southern California is race riots regarding several arrests and trials from the LA terrorist attacks of the previous year. OJ Simpson goes relatively unnoticed for quite some time.

On October 17, after the burial of Che Guevera with full military honors, the Cuban government says they will not hand the suspects unless the death penalty will be ruled out by the Californian governor. The Californian governor refuses to make such an agreement and demands that the 'Cuban government hand over these murderers lest they share in the stain of innocent blood'.

Cuba refuses.

On October 26 the Californian governor says 'America should do anything necessary to take these terrorists out of Cuba'. The next day, combined with the Asian financial crisis, the stock market plummets.

1998- The Monica Lewinsky scandal somehow manages to overshadow the Mexican conflict, if briefly. In an attempt to distract attention and out of complete frustration with Cuba, Clinton gives Cuba until March 20th to hand over the suspects.

The world watches with baited breath.

On March 18th a gunfire exchange takes place at Guantanamo Bay. Cubans say they saw a Marine crossing the border, Americans say the Cubans fired in error, and simply returned fire. The gunbattle ends with Cuban forces besieging Guantanamo Bay. The USS John F. Kennedy, which had ended a 6-month deployment in 1997, was quickly refitted for duty and called into the Carribbean. The Kennedy began immediate strikes on Cuba in retaliation. On March 20th a pair of F/A-18 Hornets supposedly kill Castro with a laser guided bomb. Soon after many members of the Cuban army desert and the US breaks out of Guantanamo, fighting skirmishes with guerillas and the Cuban army along the way.

By April American forces were at the edges of Havana, where the Cuban diehards were making their last stand. The USMC, after a massive 'precision' bombardment by American strategic aircraft, completes the assault. As a PR gesture, cameras roll as Cuban-Americans and anti-Castro Cuban guerillas raise the Cuban and American flags in Havana, though the Cuban one is ordered to fly higher. This is effectively the end of major resistance in Cuba. The rest of the island is gradually won over by Alberto Franqui, who becomes interim President of the Republic of Cuba. He promises not to remove the current healthcare given to Cubans, but makes an agreement to join NAFTA 'in the near future' as he begins programs to help develop Cuba into a free-market society.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world was shocked by the US invasion. Many agreed that the downfall of Castro was good, but they condemned the US violence. China and Russia began vetoing US pleas to help stablize Cuba or Mexico in the UN.

The African Embassy bombings are met with Operation Infinite Reach, and out of sheer luck, Osama Bin Laden is presumed killed, as he never appears in any audiovisual record again. Al-Qaeda never again adopts a rallying symbol. Desert Fox is also made in response to Hussein.

Socialist guerillas begin flooding into Mexico as Venezuela and several other nations condemn the US invasion of Cuba.

Image of US Cuban Expeditionary Force during Battle of Havana.

Very interesting. Nice to see a well-thought-out near-present POD.

And welcome to the boards!

Welcome aboard the Board!(?)

Interesting POD.

I have a few observations, but I hold most of them until you post more of the TL (Yes Darkest, I am being nice ).

Observation: Belt fed Machine Guns are heavy as hell, burn ammo like there is no tomorrow, and are very ungainly. It might be difficult to control hostages while firing one.

I do have to ask one question: Where did the whole Che thing come from? Did he survive in this TL?

In any case, best of luck with the TL.

It is somewhat of a twist to have NAFTA as such a campaign issue in 1996 as it would be. Certainly, both parties would find many members of Congress differing from their parties on these issues. Might the GOP have made a different choice for Pres. or VP in TTL? I could see this conflict as a justification used to enact more gun controls during the Clinton years here...

You got me interested. So far I am very impressed. Keep the story rolling.

Great TL, we should have more near modern work on the board.

I think one angle to play up is a "War on Latin Socialism" or something to that effect.

America would increase aid to governments like Colombia nd Chile to help them with FARC and the Shining Path.

Would violence in the border US intensify? I think it's very likely to see riots, like the ones in Paris OTL in the border states. These would cause a crackdown by the PAt Buchanan wing of the GOP, maybe even sending US troops to the border. Northern Mexico is very much a lawless area. Pancho Villa style narcoterrorists would be right at home.
For the first time in a century america would fight a long term war on it's own soil.

Consider the Following...

Consider the following ideas for the ATL....

-First, the World Trade Organization (WTO) (approved 12/1/1994) would have faced greater opposition under the political circumastances that you describe. It is certainly likely the program would have either been rejected or at least delayed by the Congress...

-Second, considering the Republican takeover of the House of Representatives led by Representative Newt Gingrich (R-GA), amny would use the "wag the dog" question regarding the issue of troops in Mexico, especially in light of the Paula Jones case....

-Third, you may want to add Representative Thomas Gerard "Tom" Tancredo (R-CO), who was elected in 1998, based on anti-immigration stances. If anything this can certainly add to the nativist element of the Republican Party...

-Fourth , another character to make things interesting would be Douglas La Follete (D-WI) who would cause a major rift in the Democratic Party by calling for major anti-immigration measures as part of the U.S. Sustainable Population Policy Project (USS3P) which was supported by conservative elements of the Sierra Club.

-Fifth, definetly use the following Republican quotes in response to the entire war. This could add another layer of both irony and realism to the ATL:

"No goal, no objective, not until we have those things and a compelling case is made, then I say, back out of it, because innocent people are going to die for nothing. That's why I'm against it."
-Sean Hannity, Fox News, 4/5/99

"American foreign policy is now one huge big mystery. Simply put, the administration is trying to lead the world with a feel-good foreign policy."
-Representative Tom Delay (R-TX)

"Clinton's bombing campaign has caused all of these problems to explode"
-Representative Tom Delay (R-TX)

"These international war criminals were led by Gen. Wesley Clark ... who clicked his shiny heels for the commander-in-grief, Bill Clinton."
-Michael Savage

"For us to call this a victory and to commend the President of the United States as the Commander in Chief showing great leadership in Operation Allied Force is a farce"
-Representative Tom Delay (R-TX)

"Victory means exit strategy, and it's important for the President to explain to us what the exit strategy is."
-Governor George W. Bush (R-TX)

"Explain to the mothers and fathers of American servicemen that may come home in body bags why their son or daughter have to give up their life?"
-Sean Hannity, Fox News, 4/6/99

"I had doubts about the bombing campaign from the beginning...I didn't think we had done enough in the diplomatic area."
-Senator Trent Lott (R-MS)

"If we are going to commit American troops, we must be certain they have a clear mission, an achievable goal and an exit strategy."
-Karen Hughes, speaking on behalf of presidential candidate George W. Bush

"President Clinton is once again releasing American military might on a foreign country with an ill-defined objective and no exit strategy. He has yet to tell the Congress how much this operation will cost. And he has not informed our nation's armed forces about how long they will be away from home. These strikes do not make for a sound foreign policy."
-Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)

CalBear said:

Welcome aboard the Board!(?)

Interesting POD.

I have a few observations, but I hold most of them until you post more of the TL (Yes Darkest, I am being nice ).

Observation: Belt fed Machine Guns are heavy as hell, burn ammo like there is no tomorrow, and are very ungainly. It might be difficult to control hostages while firing one.

I do have to ask one question: Where did the whole Che thing come from? Did he survive in this TL?

In any case, best of luck with the TL.

Click to expand...

The idea I had in mind was the MGer laying prone with hostages being forced to kneel in front of him, the barrel going between. It'd make things difficult while the initial responders were coming in. By the time he ran out of ammo he'd dispose of the gun and take the hostages down into the building (which would also be helpful as police snipers would now be in place).

As for Che, his remains were transported to a monument in Santa Clara and buried on October 17 of 97 in the OTL. I had the Castro regime using this as a bit of a PR move.

Some Cuban Effects...

Blochead said:

The idea I had in mind was the MGer laying prone with hostages being forced to kneel in front of him, the barrel going between. It'd make things difficult while the initial responders were coming in. By the time he ran out of ammo he'd dispose of the gun and take the hostages down into the building (which would also be helpful as police snipers would now be in place).

As for Che, his remains were transported to a monument in Santa Clara and buried on October 17 of 97 in the OTL. I had the Castro regime using this as a bit of a PR move.

Click to expand...

Please consider that there are several events that you may want to enter into the ATL:

-11/6/1993-8/1994- Following Castro's declaration of an open migration policy, a new boat lift begins. 30,000 refugees set sail from Cuba, mostly from Havana and Cojímar west of Havana. A U.S. Coast Guard blockade prevents additional seaborne migrations. Attorney General Janet Reno announces that authorities will seize Cuba-bound vessels intending to pick up emigrants and all U.S. citizens involved in such activities will be prosecuted. Finally, President Clinton, ending the 35-year-old open-door policy for Cubans, orders the Coast Guard to intercept Cuban emigrants at sea and transport them to Guantánamo Naval Base.

-2/1996- Cuban MIGs shoot down in international airspace two civilian aircraft belonging to the Miami-based group Brothers to the Rescue. Three U.S. citizens and one Cuban resident of the U.S. are killed. President Clinton declares Cuba's government "repressive, violent, and scornful of international law" and announces punitive measures against Cuba for the MiG attack on the two civilian planes.

-3/12/1996- President Clinton signs the Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity (Libertad) Act, also known as the Helms-Burton Act. The law enacts penalties on foreign companies doing business in Cuba, permits U.S. citizens to sue foreign investors who make use of American-owned property seized by the Cuban government, and denies entry into the U.S. to such foreign investors.

-11/13/1996- The annual vote in the UN General Assembly on the U.S. embargo of Cuba takes place. This time, Britain, Germany and the Netherlands cast their ballots against the United States. In the ATL, the reverse could happen...

-3/20/1998- The Clinton Administration announces new measures to support the people of Cuba and to strengthen their ties to U.S. citizens. This is something that will definitely happen in the ATL...

-7/15/1998- The U.S. Coast Guard announces that almost all of Florida's coast is a "security zone." Under the new policy, all boats less than 150 feet in length making trips to Cuba must obtain a permit from the nearest Coast Guard station, or risk a $10,000 fine and/or 10 years in jail. In the ATL, definitely add the element of the U.S. Navy as well...

1999- Republican governorships and senators win every US border state, as Republicans adopt a new platform of 'non-intervention'. Republicans angry at US intervention in Mexico are only moreso enflamed by conflicts in Cuba, Iraq, Sudan, the Balkans, and Afghanistan.

"For Clinton, love is war. And it's pretty clear by now he can't stand to stick with just one of either"
-Caller on FOX News, Jan 2nd 1999

But it seems the War in Mexico is slowing down. Many of the Zapatistas withdraw back into Chiapas and the Southern provinces, but increased illegal activity occurs near the borders. Texas and California deploy National Guard units and 'Minutemen Volunteer Groups' to monitor the border for crossing terrorists. In California, many illegal (and legal) immigrants are rounded up and arrested, and then held without trial for months. The Supreme Court rules in Marquez v California that the Californian government may not suspend habeas corpus and orders immediate trials for all arrested.

Clinton splits both parties. Anti-War Democrats and many Republicans say that he is fostering 'American Imperialism.' But many pro-business Republicans and neoliberal Democrats say that the wars were abseloutely necessary to American security and preserving democracy. The rifts only continue when Bush and McCain announce their bids for the 2000 Presidency against Al Gore, who is quickly voted in by Democratic Primaries and nominated. McCain ran as what the Op-Eds were calling 'Pax Americana moderates'. McCain's position on Mexico was outlined thusly:

"[There are] dangers implicit in failing to properly monitor traffic crossing the Mexican border, and there are certainly dangers in this war. Yet, Mexico is one of our largest trading partners, and it is in our best interest to maintain as open a border and as stable a nation as possible. It is a careful balancing act. [We should] ensure that we are doing everything we can to stem the flow of illegal drugs and Zapatista terrorists without impeding the flow of legitimate commerce. I think that its clear now the Mexican government needs our nation's aid to maintain that balance."

But McCain faced though opposition from Bush. Also from a border state, Bush advocated the US to "Keep our home secure but be friendly outside". Bush wanted greater restrictions on immigration, a plan to withdraw troops from the 'weakening rebellion' in Mexico and the 'Cuban Quagmire', and increased power to protect against terrorism.

As the race begins, in November 30th clashes occur outside the Seattle WTO conference, many linking it to 'unjust US action in Mexico and Cuba'. There are no deaths but it illustrates growing anti-American sentiment from the Old Left and antiglobalizers, who compare the current US Carribbean wars to the Mexican American War. Rather than gaining territory for slaves, they argue the current government seeks to gain more territory for 'wage-slaves' and 'economic imperialism'.

2000- President Bush wins the election, and fights for two months to get the bills to withdraw troops from Mexico passed.

"Its clear now Mexico is ready to stand on their own. There is no reason to waste American lives."

But many are skeptical. Donald Rumsfeld becomes reviled by military intelligence, who continue to plead in secret reports that the new Venezuelan government under Hugo Chavez and FARC are aiding the Zapatistas, and possibly preparing for a new assault.

Bush ignores them, and chooses to spend funding on new border surveillance systems.

And in April of 2000, Bush finds his words come back to haunt him.

Venezula sends over 20,000 soldiers into Mexico as Guerillas, along with weapons, armor, and even several squadrons of fighter aircraft. Venezuela also steps up arms purchases from Russia.

The Mexican Army finds itself being overrun, and Venezuelan troops conduct a paradrop into Mexico City as newly bought Su-27s and Su-39s pound the Mexican Army into pieces. Vincente Fox attempts to establish a provisional capital in Nuevo Leon, but is killed by the Venezuelan air force. On May 25, with the Venezuelan Army at their backs, the Zapatistas sign a cease fire with Federal Forces.

President Bush condemns the act and begins mobilizing US armored units on the Mexican border. Venezuela warns it will declare war on America if they enter Mexico.

Bush decides to open negotiation in a four-way talks involving the US, Mexican Federal loyalists, Venezuela and the Zapatistas in Houston. Ultimately, the Houston Talks are best remembered for their complete failure. Bush demands that Venezuela withdraw from Mexico, but Chavez says only if they recognize the Zapatistas as a legitimate government. Neither fares well to the other end of the bargain, and with the big players at odds the divided Mexicans do not fare much better in agreements.

Over the summer of 2000, the Zapatistas declare a 'People's Interim Government' to stablize the nation until election. They nationalize Mexican industry they control, but a UN embargo fails when China vetos the act.

In November of 2000, a very strange thing happens. With Venezuelan forces moving ever forward, the government of the State of Sonora hastily orders a plebiscite on secession from Mexico... Into the United States.

And it passes the popular and legislative votes by a landslide. A month later, Chihuahua and Baja California reach similar conclusions. As the year 2000 ends, virtually every state on the US border with Mexico has voted to secede into the United States for protection from the Zapatistas and Venezuela. They have gained from NAFTA and have no desire to have their wealth redistributed or their jobs nationalized. Congress is called into an emergency session, and the world holds its breath once more as the world's most powerful nation considers its options.

Sweet. Why not eventually ave mexico implode and slowly go into the US?

Nice man, but I don't see anyone launching an invasion of Mexico with 20,000 troops AND without the US knowing about. Then there's that little thing about the 3 or 4 nations Chavez has to pass through in order to get to Mexico.

That said, if the commies do take over it is very plausable that the Northern Mexican states would try to join the US. Independence wouldn't be a choice for them and they're pretty much economically intregrated into the US already.

It wasn't an invasion, per se. They were 'elite' (ie, well equipped in comparison to their Zapatista compatriots) troops who were assembled in Chiapas via aircraft and some Venezuelan owned freighters, and then sent off in support of Zapatista battalions.

Very cool concept. Northern Mexico becomes US states and southern mexico becomes the new Cuba. I got a feeling thats what you are going for.

For the short term, yes. I plan on expanding this into a 'future history' with more focus on events in the rest of the world.

Big Problem...

-President Clinton is still officially POTUS until he leaves office 1/14/2001. Also the election takes place on 11/8/2000, with or without the 34 days of electoral-college bickering (ending in OTL in 12/10/2000)....

-Consider that there will also be the issue of Florida. Consider that many Cuban-Americans, with the deposing of Fidel Castro would switch their loyalty from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party in a heart beat, switching Florida to a Democratic Party state. Also consider that you have no Elian Gonzalez case in 1999 in the ATL, thus creating a greater support for President Clinton...

-Consider that if Pete Wilson (R-CA) defeats Grey Davis (D-CA) in the 1998 CA gubernatorial campaign, then Pete Wilson (R-CA) will certainly be a candidate for the Republican Presidential Convention in 2000. Consider that he will lead the isolationist and nativist faction of the Republican Party, claiming credit for Proposition 187....

-Another major issue to consider is the Mexican Presidential elections under President Ernesto Zedillo 12/1/2000. Consider that if the elections are delayed, Vicente Fox , an ally of Gov. George W. Bush, is more of a liability in the election than an asset, sending the message of Bush being weak with te international community...

Yeah, I thought about the Clinton date, my bad. But there's no electoral college snafu. I kind of blended the 2000 and 2001 events. Can't edit it now though... I'll post a revised TL tomorrow.

Bush basically trades Florida for New Mexico & California, but in the ATL he takes much more involvement in the 'nativist' cause as governor of Texas than previously. He lowers immigration rates severely through National Guard & Minutemen style deployments... And his promise of 'withdrawing US Troops from Mexico' would be in contrast to Davis. Remember the LA attacks... Davis may the US using any means necessary to track down the culpripts. Just as GW might be maligned for advocating US isolationism, a 'curl up and wait' policy in CA might hurt Davis' campaign.


Mexican elections are as scheduled, since due to my absent minded blend of 2000 and 2001 the attack should not have occured till April of 2001.