So an interesting idea here. What if we use the 2012 election as a starting POD and from there collectively build, day by day, the world that might exist had the other won, using how we'd interpret events as they happen. Not only would this be fun but I think it'd give a unique insight into the process of making history which we could all benefit from.
What If The Other Guy Won: A Live Timeline
- Thread starter Abe Lincoln
- Start date
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
Well let's see, polls close Tuesday in Ohio at about 8PM EST, so since it will likely be how the election is called, then in all probability we won't be able to post a PoD until Wednesday. This thread would either have to be dormant until then, or it would get to be so long before the PoD that it would make more sense to start a new thread at that point.
That is unless we all already agree on what's going to happen Tuesday, and can just say Romney winning Tuesday will be our PoD.
That is unless we all already agree on what's going to happen Tuesday, and can just say Romney winning Tuesday will be our PoD.
I made a thread in chat about what could lead to this scenario, that being Obama doing worse than Romney in each and every debate. Feel free to use it if it actually gets any activity.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=260312
I feel two states that could easily have swung to Romney with the right circumstances are Florida and Virginia, which 538.com projected for Romney after the first debate went badly for Obama. Maybe Ohio too, though I don't remember whether that slipped to Romney for a while or not. Colorado as well could probably be swung, but not New Mexico.
Even with Romney winning, I don't see the Senate or Congressional situation changing. At least not by much.
Extremely depressing.
For added effect, have Puerto Rico not vote for statehood and Colorado vote against legalizing weed. We could have a whole cockblocked America.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=260312
I feel two states that could easily have swung to Romney with the right circumstances are Florida and Virginia, which 538.com projected for Romney after the first debate went badly for Obama. Maybe Ohio too, though I don't remember whether that slipped to Romney for a while or not. Colorado as well could probably be swung, but not New Mexico.
Even with Romney winning, I don't see the Senate or Congressional situation changing. At least not by much.
Extremely depressing.
For added effect, have Puerto Rico not vote for statehood and Colorado vote against legalizing weed. We could have a whole cockblocked America.
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Brilliant! How long do you think those will take to become viral with people claiming he actually did them?
Honestly I have no idea but stranger things have happened over the course of the internet. This would however be something to put off my bucket list.
Deutsche Presse Agentur dpa
+++ Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel congratulates Willard Romney and invites him to visit Germany as soon as possible. +++ "I am confident, that the new president continues the era of transatlantic trust and cooperation which will enable both sides to overcome the present economic challenges." +++ Foreign Secretary Guido Westerwelle, at present in New York, also congratulates Romney and urges "to re-establish the image of the United States as a beacon of progress and enlightenment" +++ Tom Hanks apologizes to TV-host Markus Lanz and comments "yes, of course I was kidding..."
+++ Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel congratulates Willard Romney and invites him to visit Germany as soon as possible. +++ "I am confident, that the new president continues the era of transatlantic trust and cooperation which will enable both sides to overcome the present economic challenges." +++ Foreign Secretary Guido Westerwelle, at present in New York, also congratulates Romney and urges "to re-establish the image of the United States as a beacon of progress and enlightenment" +++ Tom Hanks apologizes to TV-host Markus Lanz and comments "yes, of course I was kidding..."
The Russian take
Kremlin Boos Romney Election
MOSCOW - Russian President Vladimir Putin has sent a consolatory note to Barack Obama after his loss in the election Tuesday, his spokesman said. The Kremlin says it will not make the text public.
Putin is also expected to call Obama personally "in the near future."
"In general, the Kremlin took the news about Mitt Romney's victory in the elections very negitively," spokesman Dmitri Peskov said, according to the Interfax news agency.
"We'd had the hope that under Prsident Obama positive initiatives in bilateral relations and in Russian-U.S. interaction on the international arena in the interests of international security and stability would be developed and improved," he added.
It is perhaps not surprising that the Kremlin isn't pleased with the outcome of the election, especially since former President Obama told then-President Dmitri Medvedev earlier this year that he would have more flexibility after the election to negotiate NATO plans to place components of a missile-defense shield in Eastern Europe.
Russia has expressed concerns that the system is aimed at them, although the United States and NATO insist it is designed to counter an Iranian attack.
Obama's remarks, caught on an open microphone at a summit in Seoul, South Korea, drew sharp criticism from Republicans who suggested that the president was too soft on Russia and not honest with the U.S. public about his intentions for missile defense.
Now the prime minister, Medvedev told reporters in Hanoi today that he is saddened that Republican candidate Mitt Romney won. Medvedev cited Romney's comment in an interview with CNN that Russia is the United States' "number one geopolitical foe."
"I am afraid now that the man who calls Russia its number one foe will be the president of this large and influential state. That is paranoid," he said, according to news agency RIA Novosti.
"Romney is an undesirable and unpredictable partner," Medvedev added.
"There have been both successes and failures in the reset of Russia-U.S. relations, and this should be watched carefully," he said, suggesting that now U.S.-Russian relations will "be a bit touch and go."
In an interview with the Moscow News today, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow is apprehensive to cooperate with the Romney administration, saying "We are prepared to go as far as the U.S. Administration is prepared to go on the basis of equality, mutual benefit and mutual respect."
Other Russian leaders have also spoken out against Romney's victory, including Alexei Pushkov, the hawkish chairman of the State Duma's International Affairs Committee. Pushkov said he hoped Obama would have a "less aggressive" foreign policy, whereas he had feared a Romney presidency would return U.S.-Russian relations to the post-Soviet lows seen during the administration of George W. Bush, according to Interfax.
Relations between Washington and Moscow got off on a high note after Obama came to office, promising a "reset" in relations with Russia. Ties, however, have since become strained.
Russia says it was misled into supporting an international military intervention to oust Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi last year. The Kremlin's resistance to similar measures in Syria and its opposition to tougher United Nations sanctions on the government of President Bashar al-Assad has further strained ties.
President Putin has blamed an unprecedented wave of anti-government protests in the past year on U.S. meddling and has expelled the United States Agency for International Development from the country.
Recently, an article in a Russian government newspaper tried to devise the perfect U.S. president for Russian interests. The answer was a combination of Obama (for his "modern" worldview and flexibility), Romney (for his "pragmatic" business skills), Ron Paul (because he would reduce the size of the military and pull out of NATO), Rick Santorum (for his "moral values") and Rick Perry (for his connections to the oil industry).
Many ordinary Russians also expressed a preference for Obama over Romney. A group of young pro-Putin Russians who attended an election party at the U.S. ambassador's house Tuesday night agreed that Obama would be better for Russia.
They only smiled when reminded that being "good for Russia" probably would not win a presidential candidate any points among U.S. voters. I doubt they are smiling now.
Kremlin Boos Romney Election
MOSCOW - Russian President Vladimir Putin has sent a consolatory note to Barack Obama after his loss in the election Tuesday, his spokesman said. The Kremlin says it will not make the text public.
Putin is also expected to call Obama personally "in the near future."
"In general, the Kremlin took the news about Mitt Romney's victory in the elections very negitively," spokesman Dmitri Peskov said, according to the Interfax news agency.
"We'd had the hope that under Prsident Obama positive initiatives in bilateral relations and in Russian-U.S. interaction on the international arena in the interests of international security and stability would be developed and improved," he added.
It is perhaps not surprising that the Kremlin isn't pleased with the outcome of the election, especially since former President Obama told then-President Dmitri Medvedev earlier this year that he would have more flexibility after the election to negotiate NATO plans to place components of a missile-defense shield in Eastern Europe.
Russia has expressed concerns that the system is aimed at them, although the United States and NATO insist it is designed to counter an Iranian attack.
Obama's remarks, caught on an open microphone at a summit in Seoul, South Korea, drew sharp criticism from Republicans who suggested that the president was too soft on Russia and not honest with the U.S. public about his intentions for missile defense.
Now the prime minister, Medvedev told reporters in Hanoi today that he is saddened that Republican candidate Mitt Romney won. Medvedev cited Romney's comment in an interview with CNN that Russia is the United States' "number one geopolitical foe."
"I am afraid now that the man who calls Russia its number one foe will be the president of this large and influential state. That is paranoid," he said, according to news agency RIA Novosti.
"Romney is an undesirable and unpredictable partner," Medvedev added.
"There have been both successes and failures in the reset of Russia-U.S. relations, and this should be watched carefully," he said, suggesting that now U.S.-Russian relations will "be a bit touch and go."
In an interview with the Moscow News today, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow is apprehensive to cooperate with the Romney administration, saying "We are prepared to go as far as the U.S. Administration is prepared to go on the basis of equality, mutual benefit and mutual respect."
Other Russian leaders have also spoken out against Romney's victory, including Alexei Pushkov, the hawkish chairman of the State Duma's International Affairs Committee. Pushkov said he hoped Obama would have a "less aggressive" foreign policy, whereas he had feared a Romney presidency would return U.S.-Russian relations to the post-Soviet lows seen during the administration of George W. Bush, according to Interfax.
Relations between Washington and Moscow got off on a high note after Obama came to office, promising a "reset" in relations with Russia. Ties, however, have since become strained.
Russia says it was misled into supporting an international military intervention to oust Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi last year. The Kremlin's resistance to similar measures in Syria and its opposition to tougher United Nations sanctions on the government of President Bashar al-Assad has further strained ties.
President Putin has blamed an unprecedented wave of anti-government protests in the past year on U.S. meddling and has expelled the United States Agency for International Development from the country.
Recently, an article in a Russian government newspaper tried to devise the perfect U.S. president for Russian interests. The answer was a combination of Obama (for his "modern" worldview and flexibility), Romney (for his "pragmatic" business skills), Ron Paul (because he would reduce the size of the military and pull out of NATO), Rick Santorum (for his "moral values") and Rick Perry (for his connections to the oil industry).
Many ordinary Russians also expressed a preference for Obama over Romney. A group of young pro-Putin Russians who attended an election party at the U.S. ambassador's house Tuesday night agreed that Obama would be better for Russia.
They only smiled when reminded that being "good for Russia" probably would not win a presidential candidate any points among U.S. voters. I doubt they are smiling now.
It's not the future. It's contemporary. Even though we are in the future.
I recommend a delay between events and posts. Like maybe a month, so you have some 20/20.
From Ynet:
Netanyahu congratulates Romney on victory
Prime Minister says he looks forward to working with new US administration
Arabs, Muslims appalled at Romney victory
While, Arab and Muslim leaders rush congratulate Romney on victory, public opinion shows a majority disapprove of election results, believe Romney is "worse of two evils"
Netanyahu congratulates Romney on victory
Prime Minister says he looks forward to working with new US administration
Arabs, Muslims appalled at Romney victory
While, Arab and Muslim leaders rush congratulate Romney on victory, public opinion shows a majority disapprove of election results, believe Romney is "worse of two evils"
Garrison
Donor
From NYT blog post by Nate Silver:
It's incredibly frustrating, after four years of hard work to have my model being ridiculed but in the end the best model can't cope when the data being fed into it is so completely skewed. I have no idea whether I'm going to try and take it forward for 2016, right now I need a break and some time to think about this.
Comments:
Come on! Nate's just not seeing the big picture here! This election was stolen with voter suppression and rigged voting machines! Look at Sam Wang, Princeton, and the bookies; the all picked Obama. This is Bush 2000 x10!!!!!
It's incredibly frustrating, after four years of hard work to have my model being ridiculed but in the end the best model can't cope when the data being fed into it is so completely skewed. I have no idea whether I'm going to try and take it forward for 2016, right now I need a break and some time to think about this.
Comments:
Come on! Nate's just not seeing the big picture here! This election was stolen with voter suppression and rigged voting machines! Look at Sam Wang, Princeton, and the bookies; the all picked Obama. This is Bush 2000 x10!!!!!
Wait wait wait wait. Silver does not need to be wrong, and at this point I doubt he could be so (at least on the scale of being totally wrong about the election). Leading up to the 2012 election, when Obama lost the first debate and polling data started to turn against him, Silver noted the changes, and Virginia and Florida switched over to Romney in his projections for a while, even after Obama recovered in the second debate.
Leading up to the election then, as things did turn to Romney, Silver would not where they did turn.
Let's swing some states to Romney that were close inn a few versions: you need to swing Ohio (18), Virginia (13), and Florida (29) to Romney. They were close states. That get's you to 266 for Romney, but Obama still has 272. From there, you have 3 of the closer states: Colorado (9), Iowa (6), and Connecticut (7). You can add either one of those, or a combination of them or all three. Connecticut was the closest (about 50%), followed by Colorado (51%), followed by Iowa (51%, almost 52%). Wisconsin is in the 52% range for Obama, so I've chosen not to include that.
Just Colorado would put Romney to 275 to Obama's 263. Just Iowa, 272 to 266. Just Connecticut, 273 to 265. All three, 288 to 250. You can also get Romney to 270 by letting Obama have Ohio, but have Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and Connecticut go to Romney. That's Romney 270, Obama 268.
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Garrison
Donor
Hey Nate Silver was getting a lot of flak even though his numbers were essentially right, imagine the abuse he would have gotten if the 10% longshot came in? I'm assuming that there was no warning, no sudden shift in the polls, and I don't see anything that would contradict that take on events.
There was always warning on how things were going. As things changed, so did the projections. Nate Silver has a solid predictive model. It's not going to be Romney wins and Silver was wrong. It's going to be Romney wins, and the environment that lead to that win was predicted closely by Silver in the weeks and months leading up to 2012.
Obama conceded (a few hours ago)
Instead of challenging the result or calling for recount, Obama has finally conceded defeat in Colorado and thus the election. With 94% of votes counted, Romney is now leading Obama by a 0.6% margin in Colorado. Meanwhile, with 98% of votes counted, Romney is now leading Obama by a 2,693,332 to 2,691,245 margin. It does't matter much though, since Romney has already won the election by grabbing 275 electoral votes. He has also won 50.6% of the popular vote over 47.9% for President Obama. While Obama won the swing states of Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire by narrow margins, it isn't enough for him to pull out a victory.
Instead of challenging the result or calling for recount, Obama has finally conceded defeat in Colorado and thus the election. With 94% of votes counted, Romney is now leading Obama by a 0.6% margin in Colorado. Meanwhile, with 98% of votes counted, Romney is now leading Obama by a 2,693,332 to 2,691,245 margin. It does't matter much though, since Romney has already won the election by grabbing 275 electoral votes. He has also won 50.6% of the popular vote over 47.9% for President Obama. While Obama won the swing states of Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire by narrow margins, it isn't enough for him to pull out a victory.
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Obama should win Pennsylvania in your scenario.
How are we organizing this TL? It seems clusterf**kish at the moment.
How are we organizing this TL? It seems clusterf**kish at the moment.