Britain in the Euro

[Meadow]

Twofold exercise, really. First, how do we neutralise Brown in 1997-2002ish to the point that Blair is able to get the UK into the single currency, and secondly what are the butterflies and the situation today? A worse euro crisis? A better one? Would the Tories have campaigned on a platform of withdrawal in 2010?

Political butterflies probably mean Gordon doesn't get into Number 10, so either Blair beats Maggie's record or we get Mili-D or Hutton in by 2009.

[SlickWilly]

The best thing The British establishment ever did was to keep out of it! I actually think alot of it from their point of view was about a compulsive desire to keep Betty Windsor on their banknotes!

[The Professor]

Hmmm, did you watch that Eurocrash programme on BBC2 last night.
Basic points re UK politicians is that all competent Chancellors of the Exchequer knew full well the problems that becoming part of the Euro would entail so we not only have to neutralise Golden Brown as Chancellor but also other members of the Treasury.

So, assuming we join the Euro anyway - and ignoring any affects on UK vs German trade competition - the effects of the (originally) Anglo-American Debt Crisis are going to impact the Eurozone. THis could lead to a bigger crash.

More importantly though it won't be considered to be a problem with the Euro itself (let's avoid the political argument of how nuts a monetary union without political union is ) but a problem due to the US & UK stock exchanges.

THis would seriously deepen the UK recession

[Simreeve]

Originally Posted by Meadow

Twofold exercise, really. First, how do we neutralise Brown in 1997-2002ish

Personally I'd much rather had seen him neutralised before he sold off a large chunk of the country's gold reserves for much less than they were worth, and before he crippled the private pension system, instead ... but anyway, a bullet in the back of the head should suffice.

[The Red]

Prevent the 'Granita Deal' from occuring, Brown runs against Blair but Blair still wins by a significant margin. It's hard to say what the long term effects of this would be, as the butterflies are massive, would 9/11 still happen? Would there even be a recession in 2008?

[Devolved]

Originally Posted by The Red

Prevent the 'Granita Deal' from occuring, Brown runs against Blair but Blair still wins by a significant margin. It's hard to say what the long temr effects of this would be, as the butter flieds are massive, would 9/11 still happen? Would ther eeven be a recession in 2008?

What the hell has 9/11 got to do with Blair and Brown?

[The Red]

Originally Posted by Devolved

What the hell has 9/11 got to do with Blair and Brown?

Not necessarily Blair and Brown, as much as Sterling preparing to dissolve itself and a far more powerful Euro.

[Uff Da the optimist]

Originally Posted by Simreeve

but anyway, a bullet in the back of the head should suffice.

While I understand you are joking about this, please don't. I think the Mods have a zero-tolerance policy due to the difficulties of understanding when some is or isn't joking.


Anyway, as long as EMU remains strictly monetary it will hit trouble sooner or later, especially when you've admitted one of the participants on false ground(Greece).

[sendô]

The disastrous ERM and subsequent withdrawal on "Black Wednesday" in 1992 told the Treasury all it needed to know about the long term feasibility of monetary union with Europe without fully integrated fiscal policies and budgets.

Britain would undoubtedly be worse off today with the Euro and staying out was one of the best things to come out of the Labour government of the late nineties.

[Meadow]

Originally Posted by Devolved

What the hell has 9/11 got to do with Blair and Brown?

As The Red says, the butterflies of a potentially very different economic policy coming out of Britain, and then Europe as a whole, are huge. A Kinnock victory in 1992 may well have butterflied 9/11 as we know it, just as a Zyuganov victory in 1995 might have done the same.

[Devolved]

Originally Posted by Meadow

As The Red says, the butterflies of a potentially very different economic policy coming out of Britain, and then Europe as a whole, are huge. A Kinnock victory in 1992 may well have butterflied 9/11 as we know it, just as a Zyuganov victory in 1995 might have done the same.

Please explain because I've read some weird stuff here but I've never read that Blair/Brown were responsible for 9/11. Also staggered to hear how Neil Kinnock could have stopped it.

Perhaps I could have stopped it too if only I continued to study business instead of History!

[The Oncoming Storm]

Originally Posted by SlickWilly

The best thing The British establishment ever did was to keep out of it! I actually think alot of it from their point of view was about a compulsive desire to keep Betty Windsor on their banknotes!

Actually among the clauses of the Maastricht Treaty is a provision that if Britain joined the Euro the Monarch would remain on the coins and the distnictive Scottish and Northern Irish versions of banknotes would remain.

[Monty Burns]

Originally Posted by SlickWilly

The best thing The British establishment ever did was to keep out of it!

Granted, right now Britain is in a better position since they can easily inflationize themselves out of the mess. And this is what they're doing heavily. Question is though whether it is really beneficial for the average Briton that his government is to inflate away masses of government debt while still accumulating more and more. I wonder how many know that really much of their pension fund money is invested in gilts that barely yield enough to cover inflation if at all?

We should remember that Eurozone could be out of this problem rather fast if ECB was willing to accept inflation rates as high as in the Anglosphere, thus inflation rates the "PIIGS" were used to before the Euro. I'd recommend that actually - but then I'm young, my major asset is discounted working income and I'm working in a profession that grants me raises far above the inflation rate. I won't be hit that hard from that strategy...

[Meadow]

Originally Posted by Devolved

Please explain because I've read some weird stuff here but I've never read that Blair/Brown were responsible for 9/11. Also staggered to hear how Neil Kinnock could have stopped it.

Perhaps I could have stopped it too if only I continued to study business instead of History!

On the off chance you're not being facetious:

Butterflies. Do you understand them?

The tiniest change in the geopolitical situation of the 1990s could lead to Bin Laden being captured, America acting differently in Yugoslavia or the middle East etc etc. All those things could lead to 9/11 being anything from 9/12 to something worse or better or nothing at all.

[alex costa]

Britain in the Euro would make there crisis be worse. They did the right thing by staying out of the Euro

[Devolved]

Originally Posted by Meadow

On the off chance you're not being facetious:

Butterflies. Do you understand them?

The tiniest change in the geopolitical situation of the 1990s could lead to Bin Laden being captured, America acting differently in Yugoslavia or the middle East etc etc. All those things could lead to 9/11 being anything from 9/12 to something worse or better or nothing at all.

Yes I understand butterflies. What I don't understand are random nonsense thrown in about 9/11 when you were talking about Blair/Brown and the Euro.

You may as well have said that Benazir Bhutto doesn't get assassinated and Andy Murray wins Wimbledon while Neil Kinnock winning the '92 election leads to Pol Pot falling off the toilet in 1993 and breaking his hip.

[Meadow]

Originally Posted by Devolved

Yes I understand butterflies. What I don't understand are random nonsense thrown in about 9/11 when you were talking about Blair/Brown and the Euro.

You may as well have said that Benazir Bhutto doesn't get assassinated and Andy Murray wins Wimbledon while Neil Kinnock winning the '92 election leads to Pol Pot falling off the toilet in 1993 and breaking his hip.

Suit yourself. I don't feel the need to justify consensus to you.

On topic, it seems Britain would be up the proverbial creek by now. Given our longstanding role as the troublemakers of Europe, would we have pulled out by now? Would it be an impossibility? What of Germany and France's position within the Euro if they are joined by a third very large economy?

[V-J]

Originally Posted by Devolved

You may as well have said that Benazir Bhutto doesn't get assassinated and Andy Murray wins Wimbledon while Neil Kinnock winning the '92 election leads to Pol Pot falling off the toilet in 1993 and breaking his hip.

Uhm. Yes? That's the butterfly effect. As the Iraq War had a major effect on Labour's plans to push for a Euro referendum in the second term, and as the Iraq War would be pretty unthinkable without 9/11, it's a relevant point to raise.

[Peg Leg Pom]

If you listen to my Mother then Britain being in the Euro would inevitably lead to Enoc Powell's Rivers Of Blood Speach coming true not only in Britain but throughout the whole EU.

More reallisticaly if Britain had been part of it then the economy would be in an even worse state than it is now, and instead of a recession we could be looking a a full blown Great Depression. By now I think the Government would be looking for ways to escape from the economic shackles of the Euro and bring back the Pound.

[Devolved]

Originally Posted by V-J

Uhm. Yes? That's the butterfly effect. As the Iraq War had a major effect on Labour's plans to push for a Euro referendum in the second term, and as the Iraq War would be pretty unthinkable without 9/11, it's a relevant point to raise.

I understand the butterfly effect but without explaining why or how Blair/Brown going into the Euro butterflies things like 9/11 then it's a meaningless statement