The problem with the war is that the French, not being idiots like the British at this time, knew they would lose the war and recognized that the colonies were coming to a boil. So they pressured Spain to back down.
Well, the king wasn't an idiot. Chosiel was pretty stupid and did spend the last seven years on a really serious buildng plan to the point where the Franco-Spanish fleet was on parity with the Royal Navy. They also managed to isolate Britain on the continent. No state, not even portugal was on Britain's side at that point. So it looked better for the French at the time than we think.
Sure. But Chosiel was looking for the colonies to come to a trouble, which was obvious to everyone at this point.
Without the distraction of supporting an expensive ally on the Continent, and of course supporting a major land war in North America, the Royal Navy can concentrate attacking the Spanish Main and cutting off Spain from its Colonies in the New World. Expect a few amphibious "descents" on France, and perhaps Spain.
The Franco-Spanish Strategy would either take a direct or indirect approach to forcing England out of the War. A direct approach would involve massing an Allied Fleet at Brest or Vigo, and then waiting while the Kings secure the requisite armies and testicular fortitude to attempt a repeat of the Norman Invasion. This would divert most of the Royal Navy's Ships of the line to their home waters, leaving it to the frigates to wreak havoc on Spanish and French commerce.
An indirect approach by the Spanish and French would involve fighting the English largely on their own terms, probably attacking Great Britain's Caribbean holdings while engaging in large-scale commerce raiding in Europe. This would call a great deal of economic damage to England, but would ultimately fail due to the fact that they would be attempting to best Great Britain at its own game, except their finances would be far weaker and their fleets less competently led.
In either case expect yet another siege of Gibraltar, probably unsuccessful barring fantastic luck on the part of the besiegers or ineptitude on the part of the defenders.
In neither case would I expect the French and Spanish to be able to gain a victory. In fact, I think they would be lucky to end the war with a status quo ante bellum. They could probably inflict a great deal of harm on Great Britain's economy, and heavily burden it with debt for at least a generation. However, as an unintended consequence they could very well delay the American Revolution for at least a generation, as many Americans would serve in the British Army and Fleet during the War, and France and Spain would retain their place in the colonial imagination as threats to their well being, rather than impotent, spent foes.
What are the most likely gains for Britain - if the war is over the islands in the South Atlantic, could we see invasions of the Rio Plata thirty five years early?
Might the British try taking Cuba (again) and New Orleans, bolstered by Colonial contingents? Keeping Louisiana and Cuba would certainly go a long way to pacify the American colonies economic interests, as well as their land hunger in the long term.
A prize like Cuba would surely be a significant contribution to the recovery of British finances after the war as well.
So if there was a major meeting of the fleets in the Channel, who would come off worse? Would we see a re-run of the Seven Years' War, with the Franco-Spanish fleets mostly destroyed?
What are the most likely gains for Britain - if the war is over the islands in the South Atlantic, could we see invasions of the Rio Plata thirty five years early?
As for British gains, I doubt they would have the stomach to take the Rio de la Plata. It was a wealthy enough agricultural area at the time, and a great producer of cattle, but it was not an obvious source of gold or cash crops. GB already possessed more pristine land in North America than it knew what do do with, and holding the new territory would be rather expensive.
And sure the tension between Britain and America was seen as a weak point. But it didn't seem inevitable and Chosiel wanted war so badly that the king dismissed him from court in the aftermath of the Crisis.
The ministry would not survive one. Fortunately for London, Spain had pressed ahead in expectation, but without assurances, of full French backing. Choiseul, however, was not yet ready for a revanche. Even combined, the Bourbon fleets were still unable to match the Royal Navy; in purely numerical terms, they might be slightly larger, yet the disparities in experience and seamanship were such that Choiseul preferred not to risk it. Moreover, he remained firmly concentrated on Europe: he feared that war with Britain would prevent him from containing Russia in the east. Louis XV also got cold feet. In the end, with the rug pulled from under its feet, Spain had to back down, and settled for a secret promise that Britain would evacuate the islands in due course. Choiseul was sacked. On the face of it, Britain’s triumph was complete.
This is from Three Victories and a Defeat. It doesn't make it sound like Choiseul was pushing for war....
I agree Britain could win, but it doesn't seem like the French would push for war, for this reason.
But Jenkin's Ear isn't?
The British didn't declare war because of Jenkins' ear being cut off. They declared war because of the unproven threat made by a Spanish coast guard when he caught and cut Jenkins' ear, then said [according to Jenkins) that he would do the same to the British king if he caught the British king doing the same. So in short, the British Parliament declared war over the right of their king to keep his two ears if he ever decided to smuggle shit in the Spanish Caribbean and he was caught by this Spanish guard in particular. Really.