Worst and (Best) time for A Yellowstone Erruption, post 1900

Hi all,

I've seen lots of threads on this site about the Yellowstone super volcano erupting at various points in history and they've interested me.

So with this in mind, when is the worst possible time since 1900 for a Yellowstone eruption to occur, for the US and the world? Also, when is the least damaging time for it to happen-if there is such a time?
 
Worst possible moment would be in the fall of 1937, in that it would have massive butterflies in WW2. The best possible moment? That's sort of like asking when the best moment to be shot in the head is.
 
Well, actually the Germans too might be prone to believe that some deity was on their side as well.

The Germans already did. Hitler believed divine providence saved Prussia during the Seven Years' War and something would happen to save him when he was hunkering in his bunker.
 
In 1940, an eruption and the resulting drop in global temperatures might allow the Wehrmacht to ice skate their way over a frozen English Channel. :D
 

Deleted member 40957

Worst? In the early years of the Depression, maybe. America would fall apart and you'd see even more radical regimes taking power elsewhere due to the even worse economic situation.

Best? I'd actually say sometime in the 50s. Governments have started to plan for global disaster (bunkers, etc) but the world economy is not yet integrated enough for it to bring absolutely everybody down.
 
Best? I'd actually say sometime in the 50s. Governments have started to plan for global disaster (bunkers, etc) but the world economy is not yet integrated enough for it to bring absolutely everybody down.

The Soviet Union winning the Cold War isn't exactly a great scenario though.
 

Deleted member 40957

The Soviet Union winning the Cold War isn't exactly a great scenario though.

Hah, forgot about that, you're right - they would end up on top with America out of the picture and Western Europe weakened by the lack of trade with the USA.

I think global civilization would be preserved, though, and the US would survive in some form without balkanization. This is an era when, by and large, people trusted the government and the government was willing to act decisively.

Edit: although it would be interesting to see a potential reversal of OTL's end of the Cold War, and this would provide the perfect POD for it
 
The Soviet Union winning the Cold War isn't exactly a great scenario though.
It would be really a "cold" war. on average russia is located more north than the us, so a global drop in temperature should affect them more. Murmansk will no longer be an icefree harbour (wondering how far south the permanent pack ice would go). yes, jmore russians would probably survive than americans, but is that a win? instead of fighting the west, they probably would become much more interested in expanding southward.

as for worst moment, during the depression would be a bad moment, although somewhere in the 1917-1919 timeframe would have a massive impact too (starvation adding to the spanish flu would be a big killer)
 
Assuming the Americans don't decide to nuke the Russians to prevent just that, of course... ;)

"If we're going to lose, then we're sure as hell going to make sure nobody wins!"

Good luck getting those bombers in the air :rolleyes:

It would be really a "cold" war. on average russia is located more north than the us, so a global drop in temperature should affect them more. Murmansk will no longer be an icefree harbour (wondering how far south the permanent pack ice would go). yes, jmore russians would probably survive than americans, but is that a win? instead of fighting the west, they probably would become much more interested in expanding southward.

The west wouldn't exactly be able to stop them however.
 
In 1940, an eruption and the resulting drop in global temperatures might allow the Wehrmacht to ice skate their way over a frozen English Channel. :D

I suddenly have this vision of all of these Tiger tanks on ice-skate runners being flanked by troops and, for some reason, polar bear cavalry. :D:D:D
 
A bad one would be 1916. Effectively keeps US out of the war and the subsequent freeze will make the western front somewhat unpleasant. Might have an interesting impact on the Russian revolution.

The best? I'd agree with the late 50's or early 60's.
 
The best - 1st Jan 1900, get it over with ASAP, fewer people die as the worlds population is at it's lowest level in the 20th century (well, durrr!), plus we aren't as reliant on technology. By now we'd have recovered to 1980's tech level?

The worst - 1st Jan 1900, technology hasn't developed so much, so it'll take longer to recover from and many will die due to low-ish levels of international trade and no quick-reacting international relief organisations existing.

Or, in short, there's no best or worst time for this to happen, it's always going to be pretty damned awful.
 

Daffy Duck

Banned
Good Quote

I didn't know that there was a best time for supervolcanic eruption.

:p

took the words right out of my mouth. If you are talking a super-eruption,
(VEI 8), there really is no good time. Smaller scale eruption, the worst time would be during the Dust Bowl or Great Depression. VEI 8 - the kind that last hit Yellowstone or Mt. Toba, it doesn't matter. The entire planet is plunged into a volcanic winter lasting years, if not decades. It may even trigger a mini ice-age, similar to the one that occurred from 1550-1850.
 
If I define 'best' is having prevented the bulk of armed conflicts around the world, then Yellowstone should erupt in late 1914 or early 1915.

The knock on effects are fairly snowballing. With the ashclouds comming out in the winter of 1914, 1915 is a year without a summer.

However more immidiately the Panama-Pacific International Exposition never happens because of the ash clouds and in general the American west coast is sent into frenzy, and as such San Fransico never truely recovers from the 1906 quake and people leave the American West coast in droves.

By April, low temperatures in Europe have made poison gas ineffective on both the Russian front, and during the Battles around Ypres and Artois, causing high German losses, but poor weather also prevents successes in Turkey by the Allies, thus delaying Italys entrance into the Great War by at least a year. Futhermore later by August, the oil lubricants required for the 1st proto-type tank for the British aren't working as intended due to the cold and damp.

The British war committee is not impressed by the results and so futher development is scrapped.

As the year draws to a close, the lawlessness in the western united states allows the Mexican Revolution to spill over into the united states...or more propperly refugees seeking to remove themselves from ashclouds from continuing eruptions;

volcano_lg.jpg


Flee south into the Mexican Revolution, stirring up futher sentiments in the region putting American-Mexican tensions high.

By Feb 1916 temperatures are at a record cold, and the Battle of Verdun is fought in the snow and ice, however because Italy didn't join the year before additional soliders and shells are avalible for the German spring offensive, (since the weather patterns are screwed up anyhow the 10 day blizzard that would have slowed the German advance doesn't have the 'misfortune' to happen at that time).

Because the war committee doesn't develop the 'tank' the previous year, the Somme offensive is less effective, and becomes known as the 'Bloody days of the Somme' with over 1.2 million casulities.

During the August, tensions with Mexico and America are brought to ahead with the Jones Act and Mexicos latent support for the pro-spanish stance following the 1898 Spanish-American war; the Mexicans beliving that the Americans are just 'giving away' rightfully spanih territories, and so an anti-american, pro-New Spain movement begins to shape the revolution, much fuelled by Americans trying to 'carve out a new home' along the Mexican/Texan borders.

By the end of the year, the Central powers are in Bucharest, and with the failures at Verdun and the Somme in the west, and with the capture of Romania in the east, and all nations looking to another poor harvest, the Entente and Central powers sit down to discuss peace.

The net result of this is terms are drawn up on 'equal partnership', Finland and Poland become their own recognised states, Germany gets some minor border rearrangements, in exchange for releasing occupied coloniels capture during the war. Austria-Hungary remains united, with the creation of a large Bulgaria, minor Romania and Serbia.

Futhermore the peace terms preceed the Russian mutanies and fall of the Romanovs, without the Oktober Revolutions.

Foch never speaks of an armistace for 20 years.


As the 1920s begin, the Mexican Revolution is cementing itself in a popularist movement to kick the Americans out of the 'Atzlan State' that they have come to enhabit having fled the ash clouds (the American west coast is still fairly sparsely inhabited), and while not open war between America under Willson tensions between Washiton, Texaus and Mexico are large. As America enters the Great Depression at the end of the '20s, the Second Mexican-American war breaks out with Americans on the Texus border skirmishing with Mexican fighters.

The war escalates in the region, but because of the depression, the net result being in American settlers being kicked out of Mexican lands back into America.


In Europe the timely end before the Russian food shortages prevents widespread unrest against the Tsar which Lenin can capitalise on for a Bolshevek revolution on his return from exile and is eventually caught and shot by firing squad sometime in the early '20s for trying to forment rebellion, while unliked the Liberal ideas sown by political thinkers like Lenin take root over the decade forcing reforms and a consituational monarchy much like in Britain.

Without the harsh settlements of the Treaty of Versailles, Germany doesn't go into ruin, and Austria-Hungary doesn't split. However following the Russian reforms, German people call for the Kaiser to exist alongside a democratic 'body politic' sometime in the 1930s.

Similarly fascism doesn't spring up in Italy under Mussolini as Italy cannot claim and territory gains from not participating in the war. Stalin stays a Russian peasant, and Hitler never makes a show on the political screen.

With no Soviet Union under totalitarian regime, or fascist authoritarianism liberalism becomes the dominant ideology of Europe and there is never the 'great clash of ideologies' in World War II, or the Cold War. Nuclear weapons are not developed in the '40s because there is never a war or the fears of a 'Nazi bomb project'.

etc. etc. main point...all the nasty of the mid 20thC doesn't happen.




The worst?

The middle of the Cuban Missile Crisis and the people watching the Seismograph think the eruption is a Russian first strike nuke...
 
took the words right out of my mouth. If you are talking a super-eruption,
(VEI 8), there really is no good time. Smaller scale eruption, the worst time would be during the Dust Bowl or Great Depression. VEI 8 - the kind that last hit Yellowstone or Mt. Toba, it doesn't matter. The entire planet is plunged into a volcanic winter lasting years, if not decades. It may even trigger a mini ice-age, similar to the one that occurred from 1550-1850.

I agree with you there is never a "good" time for Yellowstone to erupt and we're all much better off wherever we live for it not happenning at all. There could be a "least worst" time for it to happen though, where it could be easier (however slightly) for the world to deal with the after affects, due to the state of things before the eruption.

Personally I agree with those who say that sometime during World War II would be the worst, though there is an argument that says that Yellowstone blowing would have major affects on the Nazis war effort as well as the Allies.

Personally I like the arguments about the 50's potentially being the least worst time, though I'd say that any time from the 90's to today would be the least worst time for it in my opinion.
 
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