Best Possible Confederate Victory?

Bexar · Mar 27, 2012

Hello lads and lasses,

While perusing the board, I have come across a common theme: that what the Confederacy does, is able to do, and how long it, and the institution of slavery last all hinge on the manner in which the Confederacy receives independence. Now my question for the board is, in your opinion, when would be the best time for the Confederacy to win the war; that is, which way of winning would leave her at the strongest possible position externally and internally, or what win allows the Confederacy to survive, but weakens slavery enough to allow its speediest abolition.

What I am striving for a future timeline of mine is either a Confederacy that includes the Eleven states that seceded plus Arizona territory, or one that contains the only the eleven but where the Confederacy wins by creating CSCT regiments.

Please no ASB, scenarios

Indigo · Mar 27, 2012

The best victory for the Confederacy would probably be one at least in the 1840s, if not earlier. At an earlier point in time, the Confederacy might even get more territory than what you say, and if there was a civil war, it would be far less punishing to the south.

NothingNow · Mar 27, 2012

Being allowed to leave (minus Key West and Fort Jefferson, and with the Mississippi being treated like the Dardanelles,) and not having the Union come down and slap their shit.
That's it.

Bexar · Mar 27, 2012

Post Script

I'm sorry I didn't post this in the beginning, but I meant within the 1860s time frame.

Elfwine · Mar 27, 2012

What NothingNow said.

No CSCT - a Confederacy in a position to win the war will not raise them (and it has to be noted in all honesty that supplying them with uniforms, training, weapons, rations, and officers will be a near impossibility with the Confederacy's resources - not so much weapons, but only relatively - in 1864) - and no Arizona territory (The CSA is simply not going to be accepted as taking that territory).

Snake Featherston · Mar 27, 2012

The sole really good shot at a late war victory is Chattanooga. Have an accident happen to both Grant and Thomas and Bragg captures the entire Army of the Cumberland intact. He just has to sit there, and after capturing that army is also in a position to capture Burnside's IX Corps, in what would be his second major reclamation of CS territory. This puts a fatal operational loss on the Union army, and the CSA may well turn to black soldiers when the manpower crunch gets desperate enough. But if it does that, that means the war's lost anyway, just in a different form. Grant and Thomas were the sole generals of a vision beyond the tactical level in the Union army, and their loss leaves it with a number of tacticians but no operational or strategic generals.

dgharis · Mar 28, 2012

NothingNow said:
Being allowed to leave (minus Key West and Fort Jefferson, and with the Mississippi being treated like the Dardanelles,) and not having the Union come down and slap their shit.
That's it.

This. Once the war starts, it's downhill from there. And the longer the war, the worse for the Confederacy. The best possible outcome is for them to be allowed to leave the Union peacefully.

67th Tigers · Mar 28, 2012

Best possible outcome?

The 14 states (The 13 plus Maryland, which the Confederate war aims stated should be allowed to democratically determine their future), NM, AZ and the west coast (as a "Pacific Republic" that joins the Confederacy) with their capital at Washington DC form the Confederacy.

New England breaks away from the US.

An extreme outlier to be sure.

9 Fanged Hummingbird · Mar 28, 2012

Snake Featherston said:
The sole really good shot at a late war victory is Chattanooga. Have an accident happen to both Grant and Thomas and Bragg captures the entire Army of the Cumberland intact. He just has to sit there, and after capturing that army is also in a position to capture Burnside's IX Corps, in what would be his second major reclamation of CS territory. This puts a fatal operational loss on the Union army, and the CSA may well turn to black soldiers when the manpower crunch gets desperate enough. But if it does that, that means the war's lost anyway, just in a different form. Grant and Thomas were the sole generals of a vision beyond the tactical level in the Union army, and their loss leaves it with a number of tacticians but no operational or strategic generals.

I really like this idea. Especially if the war ends with Bragg of all people being the great hero of the South instead of Lee.

Advernt · Mar 28, 2012

67th Tigers said:
Best possible outcome?

The 14 states (The 13 plus Maryland, which the Confederate war aims stated should be allowed to democratically determine their future), NM, AZ and the west coast (as a "Pacific Republic" that joins the Confederacy) with their capital at Washington DC form the Confederacy.

New England breaks away from the US.

An extreme outlier to be sure.

I don't know why, but every-time I hear of US screw in the 19th Century, my thoughts immediately turn to the strong prospect of either Russian or German hegemony over the European Continent by the mid 20th Century.....

Fiver · Mar 28, 2012

67th Tigers said:
Best possible outcome?

The 14 states (The 13 plus Maryland, which the Confederate war aims stated should be allowed to democratically determine their future), NM, AZ and the west coast (as a "Pacific Republic" that joins the Confederacy) with their capital at Washington DC form the Confederacy.

New England breaks away from the US.

An extreme outlier to be sure.

Well, at least 67th didn't include Kansas this time. For the CSA to keep all of their 11 states is an extreme outlier. 67th's scenario is well into ASBs.

Like Confederate politicians of the time, 67th persists in the delusion that Missouri, Kentucky, and Maryland wanted to be part of the Confederacy. Confederate attempts to prop up puppet governments there and in Arizona Territory failed abjectly. There's no chance of a New England breakaway or an independent Pacific Republic, let alone one that wants to join the Confederacy.

Best case for the Confederacy is a peaceful secession of the original 7 states. This will require neither Lincoln nor Davis as Presidents. This is the only way the Confederacy isn't left with massive debts, runaway inflation, a major section of its work force dead, crippled, or run off, damaged infrastructure, and a long border with a more powerful and hostile power.

Best credible case in the event of war is British intervention leads to the Union calling for international arbitration. The Confederacy keeps all of it's 11 states except for West Virginia and perhaps Eastern Tennessee.

67th Tigers · Mar 28, 2012

Fiver said:
Well, at least 67th didn't include Kansas this time. For the CSA to keep all of their 11 states is an extreme outlier. 67th's scenario is well into ASBs.

No. Confederate independence = 11 states. That's prettymuch the deal. You'd be hard pressed to make a TL that didn't include the 11 states.

Like Confederate politicians of the time, 67th persists in the delusion that Missouri, Kentucky, and Maryland wanted to be part of the Confederacy. Confederate attempts to prop up puppet governments there and in Arizona Territory failed abjectly.

Yeah. Military occupation does that.

Best credible case in the event of war is British intervention leads to the Union calling for international arbitration. The Confederacy keeps all of it's 11 states except for West Virginia and perhaps Eastern Tennessee.

Nope. The territorial integrity of the CSA was not negotiable. The US will want it, but that doesn't mean they get it.

mowque · Mar 28, 2012

67th Tigers said:
Nope. The territorial integrity of the CSA was not negotiable. The US will want it, but that doesn't mean they get it.

Losers don't get to make demands like that.

Fiver · Mar 28, 2012

67th Tigers said:
No. Confederate independence = 11 states. That's prettymuch the deal. You'd be hard pressed to make a TL that didn't include the 11 states.

You'd be hard pressed to make a credible timeline where the CSA didn't lose at least some territory. At a minimum they lose West Virginia. It would be quite easy to lose some or all of Tennessee and Arkansas as well. In 1867 peace by exhaustion also loses them most or all of Louisiana, half of Mississippi, northern Alalbama, northern and coastal Virginia.

67th Tigers · Mar 28, 2012

mowque said:
Losers don't get to make demands like that.

By definition they are not the loser in such a TL.

Johnrankins · Mar 28, 2012

67th Tigers said:
No. Confederate independence = 11 states. That's prettymuch the deal. You'd be hard pressed to make a TL that didn't include the 11 states.

Yeah. Military occupation does that.

Nope. The territorial integrity of the CSA was not negotiable. The US will want it, but that doesn't mean they get it.

The CSA definitely loses WV and probably TN as the Union Army is sitting on them. The CSA has no real way of moving them off of both states. Almost every time the CSA went on the offensive the CSA got its butt kicked. It was an era of defensive warfare and the Union has far more men.

Johnrankins · Mar 28, 2012

67th Tigers said:
By definition they are not the loser in such a TL.

In any reasonable TL they will be in WV and proably TN as well as both went quick.

Elfwine · Mar 28, 2012

Johnrankins said:
In any reasonable TL they will be in WV and proably TN as well as both went quick.

Even if they somehow manage to hold on to/regain Tennessee, and keep West Virginia smaller than OTL...the CSA doesn't have the power to force the issue, and shouldn't try, beyond that.

Snake Featherston · Mar 28, 2012

67th Tigers said:
Nope. The territorial integrity of the CSA was not negotiable. The US will want it, but that doesn't mean they get it.

The territorial integrity of the CSA would be negotiable The original CSA, after all, was only 7 states, the 11 that joined it did so semi-voluntarily at best.

Snake Featherston · Mar 28, 2012

67th Tigers said:
By definition they are not the loser in such a TL.

By definition they are not a winner, either. The CSA had absolutely no power to win the war on its own power outside one occasion. A USA that exhausts itself will have admitted West Virginia into the Union, the CSA has no ability to force a short war.