A Peaceful Middle East

I'm going to Israel in about a week and a half, and I started to wonder, what would have to change for there to be a Middle East that doesn't spend every 5 minutes fighting someone? Which is why I want to hear your ideas for an ATL where the Middle East area is peaceful. Please note I have a few catches to this:

1. The POD has to be between 1900-1920.

2. Although the area can be under European imperialism after WW1, they have to be out of there no later than 1950.

3. There has to be some version of a Jewish state in the Levant, with at least some part of Jerusalem as the capital. Whether it is an independent nation or a part of a greater Arab state is up to you.

4. Please keep it plausible.
 
Ibn Saudi attacks the Ottoman Empire in 1915 and conquers OTL Israel, Jordan, Syria and Iraq. There is an autonomous Jewish millet.
 
Ibn Saudi attacks the Ottoman Empire in 1915 and conquers OTL Israel, Jordan, Syria and Iraq. There is an autonomous Jewish millet.

I don't see that working. Saudi Arabia already follows the extremist Wahabiist Sect which makes it regionally something of a loose cannon in the perceptions of the Sunnis and Shi'as. I just can't see Persia, the Arabs or the Hashemites (who still ruled in Hejaz at the time) from accepting this. Never mind the fact that the Saudis were still a very minor power until the early 20s when they conquered the Hedjaz and the Rashidis unifying modern Saudi Arabia.

Perhaps what would work better is some agreement between the French and Faisal bin Hussein which manages to establish a french puppet kingdom of Syria, Abdullah gets bumped up to Iraq and perhaps Iraqi Kurdistan stays with the Ottomans, Transjordan goes to Hejaz which survives with British help, and the family links between states (which look very likey given past history between Jordan and Iraq where antagonism was mainly due to the differences in size) manage to reduce tensions between Iraq, Syria and the Hejaz. Palestine remains a British Mandate which eventually sees a deal on West Jerusalem as capital of either an autonomous Jewish state within Hejaz or a vastly reduced Israel which is effectively Tel Aviv, Haifa and West Jerusalem.
 
Problem is, the formation of Israel is always going to involve ethnic cleansing, and therefore will earn the enmity of others in the region. The rest of the points are easily achievable by keeping the Ottoman empire around, but that last point is the hard one.
 
Prevent Israel from coming into being by keeping the Ottoman Empire around. Less belligerent Jewish immigrants would be more easily accepted by the already existing inhabitants.
 

Morty Vicar

Banned
Between 1922 and 1947, the annual growth rate of the Jewish sector of the economy was 13.2%, mainly due to immigration and foreign capital, while that of the Arab was 6.5%. Per capita, these figures were 4.8% and 3.6% respectively. By 1936, the Jewish sector had eclipsed the Arab one, and Jewish individuals earned 2.6 times as much as Arabs.[86] Compared to other Arab countries, the Palestinian Arab individuals earned slightly more.[87] In terms of human capital, there was a huge difference. For instance, the literacy rates in 1932 were 86% for the Jews against 22% for the Palestinian Arabs, but Arab literacy was steadily increasing. In this respect, the Palestinian Arabs compared favourably to Egypt and Turkey, but unfavourably to Lebanon.[88] On the scale of the UN Human Development Index determined for around 1939, of 36 countries, Palestinian Jews were placed 15th, Palestinian Arabs 30th, Egypt 33rd and Turkey 35th.[89] The Jews in Palestine were mainly urban, 76.2% in 1942, while the Arabs were mainly rural, 68.3% in 1942.[90] Overall, Khalidi concludes that Palestinian Arab society, while overmatched by the Yishuv, was as advanced as any other Arab society in the region and considerably more than several.[91]
Under the British Mandate, the country developed economically and culturally. In 1919 the Jewish community founded a centralised Hebrew school system, and the following year established the Assembly of Representatives, the Jewish National Council and the Histadrut labour federation. The Technion university was founded in 1924, and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in 1925.[92]
Palestinian Arab leadership

Under the British Mandate, the office of “Mufti of Jerusalem”, traditionally limited in authority and geographical scope, was refashioned into that of “Grand Mufti of Palestine”. Furthermore, a Supreme Muslim Council (SMC) was established and given various duties, such as the administration of religious endowments and the appointment of religious judges and local muftis. In Ottoman times, these duties had been fulfilled by the bureaucracy in Istanbul.[93] In dealings with the Palestinian Arabs, the British negotiated with the elite rather than the middle or lower classes.(Khalidi 2006, p. 52) They chose Hajj Amin al-Husayni to become Grand Mufti, although he was young and had received the fewest votes from Jerusalem’s Islamic leaders.(Khalidi 2006, pp. 56–57) One of the mufti's rivals, Raghib Bey al-Nashashibi, had already been appointed mayor of Jerusalem in 1920, replacing Musa Kazim, whom the British removed after the Nabi Musa riots of 1920,[94][95] during which he exhorted the crowd to give their blood for Palestine.[96] During the entire Mandate period, but especially during the latter half, the rivalry between the mufti and al-Nashashibi dominated Palestinian politics. Khalidi ascribes the failure of the Palestinian leaders to enroll mass support, because of their experiences during the Ottoman Empire period, as they were then part of the ruling elite and accustomed to their commands being obeyed. The idea of mobilising the masses was thoroughly alien to them.(Khalidi 2006, p. 81)
There had already been rioting and attacks on and massacres of Jews in 1921 and 1929. During the 1930s, Palestinian Arab popular discontent with Jewish immigration grew. In the late 1920s and early 1930s, several factions of Palestinian society, especially from the younger generation, became impatient with the internecine divisions and ineffectiveness of the Palestinian elite and engaged in grass-roots anti-British and anti-Zionist activism, organised by groups such as the Young Men's Muslim Association. There was also support for the radical nationalist Independence Party (Hizb al-Istiqlal), which called for a boycott of the British in the manner of the Indian Congress Party. Some took to the hills to fight the British and the Zionists. Most of these initiatives were contained and defeated by notables in the pay of the Mandatory Administration, particularly the mufti and his cousin Jamal al-Husayni. A six-month general strike in 1936 marked the start of the great Palestinian Revolt.[97]
Main articles: 1947 UN Partition Plan and 1947-1948 Civil War in Mandatory Palestine

https://www.alternatehistory.com/wiki/File:UN_Partition_Plan_For_Palestine_1947.svghttps://www.alternatehistory.com/wiki/File:UN_Partition_Plan_For_Palestine_1947.svg
The UN Partition Plan


The British Peel Commission had proposed a Palestine divided between a Jewish state and an Arab state. But in the 1939 White Paper Britain changed its position and sought to limit Jewish immigration from Europe. This was seen by Zionists and their sympathisers as betrayal of the terms of the mandate, especially in light of the increasing persecution of Jews in Europe. In response, Zionists organised Aliyah Bet, a program of illegal immigration into Palestine. Lehi, a small group of extreme Zionists, staged armed attacks on British authorities in Palestine. However, the Jewish Agency, which represented the mainstream Zionist leadership, still hoped to persuade Britain to allow resumed Jewish immigration, and cooperated with Britain in World War II.
The Anglo-American Committee of Inquiry in 1946 was a joint attempt by Britain and the United States to agree on a policy regarding the admission of Jews to Palestine. In April, the Committee reported that its members had arrived at a unanimous decision. The Committee approved the American recommendation of the immediate acceptance of 100,000 Jewish refugees from Europe into Palestine. It also recommended that there be no Arab, and no Jewish State. The Committee stated that "in order to dispose, once and for all, of the exclusive claims of Jews and Arabs to Palestine, we regard it as essential that a clear statement of principle should be made that Jew shall not dominate Arab and Arab shall not dominate Jew in Palestine." U.S. President Harry S. Truman angered the British Labour Party by issuing a statement supporting the 100,000 refugees but refusing to acknowledge the rest of the committee's findings. Britain had asked for U.S assistance in implementing the recommendations. The U.S. War Department had said earlier that to assist Britain in maintaining order against an Arab revolt, an open-ended U.S. commitment of 300,000 troops would be necessary. The immediate admission of 100,000 new Jewish immigrants would almost certainly have provoked an Arab uprising.[98]

POD

As violence began to erupt once again between Arabs and Jews, the British moved in with great force to end the rioting, supported by us troops. This was partly motivated by the chaos and tragedy that occured during the partition of India, and partly becaus eof continued British interests in Arab oil. As they struggled to contain the growing conflict, greater resentment built from both the Arab and Jewish populations, leading to a temporary truce between Irgun and the Black Hand. Although they had diametrically opposed viewpoints, they agreed to the truce in order to bring down the British Mandate of Palestine, agreeing to the UN partition plan once they had gained independence. Soviet Russia, at the very early stage sof the Cold War, angered the US and Britain by supporting the partition plan. There were even rumours of Soviet soldiers aiding the insurgency, although the five suspects caught by the British claimed to be jews who had deserted the soviet army to fight for Israeli freedom. Soon the rebels gained a foothold in the mountainous regions, and with reinforcements piling in from Arab nations and jews from Europe and the Middle east, they began to drive back the British troops. In order to avoid even further controversy the British agreed to peace talks, leading to the dissolve of the Mandate of Palestine. However the israeli and palestinian leaders were at a stalemate, further exacerbated by outside pressure form the US and Arab league. Initially they had informally agree to the UN partion plan, but now they disagreed over the precise borders. Furthermore the situation was antagonised by internal disputes among the zionists and palestinians themselves. The USSR provided an alternative solution, were they to ally with the soviet bloc (but to maintaiun their independence as a single, secular but multidenominational state) they would have a powerful ally against further US or British interference, something still greatly feared by both sides. The signing of the declaration of Independence of the Socialist Southern levant takes place, it doesn't go all Yugoslavia later, and everyone lives happily ever after..

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I don't see that working. Saudi Arabia already follows the extremist Wahabiist Sect which makes it regionally something of a loose cannon in the perceptions of the Sunnis and Shi'as. I just can't see Persia, the Arabs or the Hashemites (who still ruled in Hejaz at the time) from accepting this. Never mind the fact that the Saudis were still a very minor power until the early 20s when they conquered the Hedjaz and the Rashidis

Good point I was thinking that the Saudi welfare state could keep the peace. m Maybe separate Shite kingdoms in present day Iraq and a Kurdistan.
 
How peaceful would the region be if, following the Great War, there was a Turkish State, a Kurdish State and a single Arab State (oh, and Iran too)? I'm not sure what sort of Arab State it would be, a monarchy or a republic. Current states sort of reflect either British or French influence. Those France had as mandate, they made the governments in their own image, where as the British mandates all ended up with Kings, with the exception of Palestine.
 
The Ottoman Empire implodes in World War 1 and signs an armistice with the Triple Entente. Among other things, Armenia is handed to Russia and Britain and France are granted "influence" over the Levant and the Suez Canal. The Bosporus is declared an international waterway.

Meanwhile, the Romanovs in Russia scrape through, having granted massive powers to Social Democrats and other liberals.

The former empire is convulsed in civil war, as secular nationalists in Anatolia battle factions backed by Britain and France. In a stunning turn of events, by 1925 a Communist Caliphate based at Jerusalem emerges. It preaches that the Prophet Mohammed foretold the principles of Marxism, and that socialism was God's will. Mustafa Kemal emerges as a Lenin-analogue.

Due to western influence, the Communist Caliphate implements something like the Soviet NEP. It also marginalizes any potential Trotskys or Stalins. Jews from across the Caliphate are encouraged to "return to their homeland" to serve as bureaucrats. Foreign Jews also immigrate, though at a much slower pace.

Into the 1930s, the Caliphate is affected by the Great Depression, but not nearly as much as capitalist economies. As anti-Semitic fascism sweeps Europe, Mustafa Kemal issues an invitation for European Jews to "make your homeland bloom"; over 500000 accept. The Jewish population in the Levant now tops a million, and settle mostly in coastal cities. Government efforts to create kibbutzes in the desert are mostly white elephants.

Despite early attempts to stay out of WW2, the Caliphate is dragged into the Allied side when Himmler lands in North Africa and threatens Egypt. The Axis also attacks and besieges Istanbul, which turns into the Leningrad of our TL. In this TL, Russia remains neutral, though Axis-aligned. Axis efforts to create a fifth column in the Levant from Syrian Alawites and Catholics backfire spectacularly. The Caliphate is recognized as a major ally by Churchill, de Gaulle, and FDR, who promise to relinquish all privileges, hand over the Suez Canal, and allow the Caliphate to expand across the Maghreb.

By the 1950s, the stage is set for a united, (mostly) peaceful, and still dictatorial Middle East.
 
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